Magnificent Seven Captaincy Theory Revisited For Gameweek 9

Leading up to Gameweek 8, I investigated a theory proposed by user Net Gains that claimed to be able to find the best Fantasy captains.

The outcome of the analysis for Gameweek 8 was to captain Diego Costa, and anyone who had done so would have been quite pleased with the resulting nine Fantasy Premier League  points he took from the visit of Leicester to Stamford Bridge (I know I was).

It also shone a light on the form of West Brom’s Nacer Chadli, who managed a double digit haul of points against his old club.

Obviously it might just have been coincidence that it was an effective result, but with the calculations already in my spreadsheet it’s straightforward to perform the same exercise for upcoming Gameweek 9.

As a recap, the theory is to find the attacking player that does the best across seven equally weighted categories:

• Points per minute (PPM)
• PPM @ Venue
• PPM @ Venue for last three games
• % involvement in team goals (incl. assists)
• Team goals scored @ venue for last three games
• Opposition goals conceded @ venue for last three games
• Count of unblanked games

As per the original theory, the winner of each category gets one point and second place gets nothing. The results are as follows:

• PP90M = Heung-Min Son (8.33)
• PP90M @ Venue = Heung-Min Son (13.57)
• PP90M @ VenueX3 = Heung-Min Son (13.57)
• % Involvement = Jermain Defoe (44%)
• Team goals scored @ VenueX3 = Liverpool players (3)
• Opposition goals conceded @ VenueX3 = Sunderland players at home – facing West Ham (2.66)
• Unblanked games = Diego Costa (7)

Note that points are based on ‘GABS’ points (does not include minutes, cards, own goals, missed penalties etc. Only Goals/Assists/Bonus/Saves/Cleansheets are counted) and only Goals/Assists/Bonus are being checked for the ‘unblanked’ games.

One of the most noticeable things, compared to last week, is that things haven’t really changed a lot. That is a possible concern with this method – it will be relatively slow to react.

The other is that Heung-Min Son is the clear winner by virtue of his powerful PP90 score, especially away from home (where all four of his league goals have come to date).

Second place this week is Jermain Defoe thanks to his high level involvement in all things Sunderland attack, facing a West Ham defence that has really struggled this season.

GAMEWEEK 9’S TOP PICKS

The alternative method I proposed last week was to be less clear cut, and give the runners up a fraction of a point, based on how close they were to 1st place. Running that again this week gives the following top 10:

1. Heung-Min Son (4.84)
2. Junior Stanislas (4.45)
3. Theo Walcott (4.17)
4. Diego Costa (4.06)
5. Adam Lallana (4.06)
6. Alexis Sanchez (4.00)
7. Raheem Sterling (3.83)
8. Philippe Coutinho (3.72)
9. Kevin De Bruyne (3.66)
10. James Milner (3.64)

One other change to note here is that I have adjusted the ‘unblank’ assessment to take account of ‘opportunities’. So rather than giving Costa an initial count of seven for his unblanks, he has a result of seven out of eight, i.e. 87.5%. The main beneficiary of this is 21-year-old Sam McQueen who got an assist on his debut, giving him an ‘unblank’ record of 100%!

FINAL THOUGHTS

The original ‘Net Gains’ method of captaincy worked well last week, and could easily do so again. Bournemouth’s defence at home has done a very respectable job so far this season, but can they hold out Heung-Min Son this week? And in direct opposition is Junior Stanislas, who I’ve already discussed in an article recently. I would certainly pick the former over the latter, although my alternative method does not see much difference between the two. If either manage of these midfielders, or Jermain Defoe manage to pick up results in Gameweek 9, then this theory could yet have validity.

Other elements that surprised me while running this analysis is how poor the West Ham defence has been, though I’d be surprised to see the Sunderland team run riot.

And finally, two budget players that did not make it into the top 10 worth a mention – I had barely even noticed Sam McQueen arrive on the scene as yet another budget midfielder for possible consideration (although in reverse OOP, so sustained returns appear unlikely).

Also Joe Allen is up to a remarkable 40% involvement with Stoke’s goals, which with a visit to struggling Hull, supports the recent trend of transfers.