This article aims to find out the best Fantasy Premier League captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining bookies odds with form and fixture.
In each of the previous four Gameweeks this method has proved successful, with Alexis Sanchez’s brace earning those who backed him with the armband a 26 point haul.
In truth last week was an easy win for the method, with many of the big hitters, including Sergio Aguero and Alexis Sanchez delivering. Only an inspired Tom Heaton performance kept another popular candidate, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, from delivering.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 11’s best captaincy targets let’s have a quick recap on how I use odds, form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method I take six popular captaincy options, according to the FFScout captaincy poll and rank them 1-6 according to their likelihood to score according to the bookies. I then give the same 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (SiB) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at points per game, goals and assists over the last four games.
I understand that the odds segment can sometimes heavily outweigh others (e.g. Aguero is always likely to be low odds for scoring) so the fixtures and form elements could be used separately if you so wished.
With that in mind let’s take a look at Gameweek 11’s results.
Odds
| Rank | Player | Odds To Score | Implied Probability |
| 1 | Aguero | 1/2 | 66.67% |
| 2.5 | Austin | 11/8 | 42.11% |
| 2.5 | Coutinho | 11/8 | 42.11% |
| 4 | Hazard | 6/4 | 40.00% |
| 5 | Sanchez | 13/8 | 38.10% |
| 6 | Lukaku | 9/4 | 30.77% |
Fixtures
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded SiB Conceded |
| 1 | Austin | HUL (A) | 11 | 7 46 |
| 2 | Hazard | EVE (H) | 4 | 6 28 |
| 3 | Sanchez | TOT (H) | 2 | 4 24 |
| 4 | Aguero | MID (H) | 2 | 4 22 |
| 5.5 | Coutinho | WAT (H) | 2 | 4 17 |
| 5.5 | Lukaku | CHE (A) | 0 | 0 23 |
Form
| Rank | Player | PPG | Goals | Assists |
| 1.5 | Lukaku | 8.75 | 3 | 2 |
| 1.5 | Hazard | 8.75 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | Sanchez | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Coutinho | 5.75 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | Austin | 4.75 | 2 | 0 |
| 6 | Aguero | 4.5 | 2` | 1 |
Results
| Rank | Player | Form | Fixture | Odds | Total Total Rank without odds factored in |
| 1 | Hazard | 1.5 | 2 | 4 | 7.5 1st |
| 2 | Austin | 5 | 1 | 2.5 | 8.5 2nd |
| 3.5 | Sanchez | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 2nd |
| 3.5 | Aguero | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 6th |
| 5 | Coutinho | 4 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 12 5th |
| 6 | Lukaku | 1.5 | 5.5 | 6 | 13 4th |
