Everton’s Romelu Lukaku was always expected to build on a career-best 185 points from the 2015/16 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season.
The Belgian duly obliged, registering 25 goals and six assists to total 221 points which ranked him second among FPL forwards.
He was undoubtedly one of the season’s stars, with Lukaku’s performances earning his first-ever selection in the PFA Team of the Year, while he also takes his place alongside Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane as the second forward in our Team of the Season.
The Statistics
Despite his strong showing in 2015/16, Lukaku was only handed a starting price of 9.0 in FPL.
After missing the first match of the season against Spurs due to a foot injury, Lukaku then suffered two successive blanks as his campaign stalled.
But he scored twice for Belgium in a 3-0 win over Cyprus during the international break and then produced a breathtaking 11-minute hat-trick against Sunderland in Gameweek 4.
That was followed by a further four goals and three assists over his next six appearances as his value rocketed to 9.9, with the striker found in 1,476,014 squads by Gameweek 12.
A tougher run of fixtures then slowed his ascent, with Lukaku suffering six blanks in seven Gameweeks, ensuring that his price fell back to 9.4.
But an 11-point haul in a 3-0 home win over Southampton would kick start an incredible run of form at Goodison Park which would define Lukaku’s season.
He went on to score in each of his next seven home matches, registering 12 goals, two assists and 12 bonus points. He also produced four double-digit hauls, including a momentous 21 points in the 6-3 win against Bournemouth in Gameweek 24 when he scored four goals.
His price in FPL peaked at 10.5 during this period, with the Belgian now found in over 2,100,000 squads – making him the most popular FPL asset.
Lukaku’s form tailed off towards the end of the season, but he did score a penalty in the 3-1 defeat to Arsenal on the final day.
In terms of his underlying statistics, he ranked fourth among FPL forwards for goal attempts with 110, and joint-fourth for shots from inside the box with 80.
The Toffees striker was very accurate during 2016/17 though, registering 53 shots on target – only Kane (58) produced more.
Lukaku also shone as a creator, registering 47 key passes, placing him joint-first among FPL forwards.
The excellent value he offered throughout the season was reflected in the Belgian ranking third for points per million for forwards with a score of 21.9.
He also excelled in terms of bonus points, racking up 33 – a tally matched only by Chelsea’s Eden Hazard and his Golden Boot rival Kane.
The Prospects
Following such a prolific campaign, there is no doubt that Lukaku will earn a significant price hike next season.
However, with the striker having reportedly reached an agreement with another club – with Chelsea and Manchester United appearing to be leading the chase – the scale of that increase is still uncertain.
If he does end up at either Stamford Bridge or Old Trafford, that will surely confirm his status as one of the most expensive players in the game, perhaps placing him around the 11.5 mark.
Such a move throws up numerous permutations that make assessing Lukaku’s prospects for next season very difficult.
How much competition he has will be a factor, given that he started 36 matches last season and was guaranteed a place in Everton’s first XI when fit.
Diego Costa’s uncertain future at Chelsea would suggeset that a move for Lukaku will suit both parties and the latest reports suggest that the Blues are now favourites to seal his capture.
But while he would be expected to command a starting berth at either Chelsea or United, the fact both teams will play in the Champions League next season means he will be more vulnerable.
On the other hand, the prospects for the Belgian could increase significantly with the benefit of an improved supply from midfield and the flanks.
Chelsea scored 85 goals and registered 580 goal attempts last season, compared to 62 and 502 respectively for Everton.
Meanwhile, United’s goal conversion rate of 9.1% was the fourth lowest in the top flight, indicating their need for a top quality striker.
With the future of Zlatan Ibrahimovic still uncertain, the addition of Lukaku, who boasted a goal conversion rate of 22.7% last term – significantly stronger than Ibrahimovic (14.8) – could be crucial if Jose Mourinho’s side are to embark on a stronger campaign next time around.
However, United are also courting Real Madrid’s Alvaro Morata with reports suggesting that he is bound for Old Trafford.
Regardless of his destination, Lukaku’s combination of pace, power and accurate finishing makes him a frightening prospect for opposition defences, and with the 24-year-old maturing year by year, he is set to challenge Kane and possibly Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero as the leading forward option next season.
Certainly, in terms of consistency and the potential to deliver big points hauls, he is currently the most likely challenger to that pair.
The next month will surely shape how we view Lukaku as a Fantasy prospect, with a move to a top six club perhaps inspiring him to reach yet another level in 2017/18.
6 years, 10 months agoFirst name in my team sheet. Chelsea or Everton