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Analysing Last Season’s Clean Sheets

24 June 2017 56 comments
Piggs Boson Piggs Boson
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The aim of this article is find out which fixtures gave us the most clean sheets last season, and to translate this information into an unbiased set of rankings that can be imported into the FFS Member's Ticker.

Which fixtures did each team register a clean sheet in?

(Ordered by No. of Clean Sheets – Descending)

17. Manchester United: SOT, hul, liv, BUR, TOT, wba, whu, HUL, lei, WAT, WBA, sun, CHE, bur, mci, sot, CPL

17. Spurs: CRY, stk, SUN, MCI, bou, SWA, HUL, CHE, WBA, sun, MID, STK, bur, WAT, BOU, cry, ARS

16. Chelsea: BUR, hul, LEI, MUN, sot, EVE, mid, WBA, sun, cpl, BOU, lei, HUL, eve, MID, wba

14. Southampton: SWA, whu, lei, LIV, EVE, MID, stk, LEI, sun, BOU, wba, HUL, liv, MUN

13. Everton: STK, sun, WHU, lei, SOT, MCI, cpl, mid, SUN, WBA, HUL, whu, WAT

13. Arsenal: lei, CHE, bur, MID, WBA, CPL, swa, HUL, WHU, LEI, MUN, sot, SUN

12. Liverpool: MUN, sot, SUN, mid, eve, MCI, TOT, wba, wat, SOT, whu, MID

12. Man City: BOU, wba, WAT, hul, whu, bou, sun, STK, sot, MUN, CPL, wat

11. Middlesborough: wba, ars, BOU, HUL, SWA, LEI, wat, EVE, swa, BUR, SUN

11. Stoke: SUN, hul, wat, BUR, SOT, WAT, CPL, MID, mci, WHU, sot

10. Bournemouth: WBA, EVE, TOT, stk, LEI, swa, SWA, sot, MID, sun

10. Burnley: LIV, WAT, mun, MID, SOT, LEI, sun, STK, mid, cpl

10. West Ham: BOU, cpl, SUN, BUR, HUL, CPL, SWA, EVE, stk, TOT

9. Leicester: ARS, BUR, SOT, WHU, mid, STK, SUN, wba, WAT

8. Swansea: bur, WAT, SUN, LEI, MID, STK, EVE, sun

7. Palace: SOT, bou, MID, wba, WAT, ARS, HUL

7. Watford: mid, swa, HUL, MID, SUN, WBA, SWA

6. Sunderland: HUL, WAT, TOT, cpl, BUR, hul

6. West Brom: cpl, MID, BUR, SUN, STK, mun

5. Hull: swa, mun, LIV, WAT, sot


How many Clean Sheets did each fixture yield?

11 = HUL, MID, WAT

10 = SUN

9 = sun

8 = sot, wba

7 = WBA, SOT, STK, LEI, BUR, cpl

6 = SWA, BOU, CPL, EVE, MUN, mid

5 = TOT, bur, hul, lei, swa, whu

4 = WHU, stk, wat

3 = ARS, CHE, LIV, MCI, bou, mun

2 = eve, liv, mci

1 = ars

0 = che, tot

Total clean sheets from HOME fixtures: 130
Total clean sheets from AWAY fixtures: 84

Equivilent FFS Ticker Ratings 

The relegated teams are removed from this section of the analysis

The ticker fixture ratings range from 950 to 1350. Therefore if we set the most lucrative fixture at 950 (WAT) and the two fixtures which yielded zero clean sheets at 1350 (che, tot), we can create a trendline between the two points and equate each clean sheet total to a rating.

The trendline found is -36.364x + 1350 where x is the number of clean sheets the fixture yielded.

This equation produces the following ratings for each fixture:

Home Ratings:

Arsenal: 1241

Bournemouth: 1132

Brighton: n/a (Recommended: 950)

Burnley: 1095

Chelsea: 1241

Crystal Palace: 1132

Everton: 1132

Huddersfield: n/a (Recommended: 950)

Leicester: 1095

Liverpool: 1205

Man City: 1241

Man United: 1132

Newcastle: n/a (Recommened: 950)

Southampton: 1095

Stoke: 1095

Swansea: 1132

Tottenham: 1168

Watford: 950

West Brom: 1095

West Ham: 1205

Away Ratings:

Arsenal: 1314

Bournemouth: 1241

Brighton: n/a (Recommended: 1023)

Burnley: 1168

Chelsea: 1350

Crystal Palace: 1095

Everton: 1277

Huddersfield: n/a (Recommended: 1023)

Leicester: 1168

Liverpool: 1277

Man City: 1277

Man United: 1241

Newcastle: n/a (Recommened: 1023)

Southampton: 1059

Stoke: 1205

Swansea: 1168

Tottenham: 1350

Watford: 1205

West Brom: 1059

West Ham: 1168


1023 is lowest value of any away fixture last season, bestowed to the mighty Sunderland.

members

What is this nonsense?

Good question. Well, if you enter these values into your member's tickers you end up the perfect clean sheet ticker for last season. Each value is perfectly weighted to represent the amount of clean sheets it produced. It's beautiful!

However, a lot will change this season. We have new managers, new signings, and three new teams.Therefore, it may require your own tweaks and modifications. Every new signing may prompt you to load it up and tweak a value. In addition, some of last season's scorelines may have happened as a result of circumstance or luck. Some teams, in particular, endured many injuries in the same position and suffered as result. (E.g. United's centre-back issues resulted in them winning just three trophies)

Now on an informal note, I hope you enjoy this article and get good use out of the ticker. It's always nice to receive pure, unbiased statistics that we can use as a base – so that we can then manipulate and distort them based on our own personal bias', and no one elses.

If you didn't find the ticker useful, or are not yet a member (crazy fools), you can at least use this article as a reference sheet for last season's clean sheet statistics.

Clean sheet analysis from two years ago for comparison

Thanks Parm for giving me the link and inspiration for this article

56 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Mark
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 18 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Lovely stuff from GB. I'll be looking at those values he offers for the ticker in light of our own default ones.

    One sidenote - Everton's keepers have 14 clean sheets in FPL terms because, although they lost 1-0 to Liverpool at home, they conceded in stoppage time with Stekelenburg having been subbed after the hour mark.

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  2. Dreams
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Great article GB. One which would be useful for a long time.

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  3. AA33
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Great article GB! 😀

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    • Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 18 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Okay comments back in now - issue addressed. Sorry about that.

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    • Phil Dagger â­
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      You deserve a Noble Prize for This 😉 . Excellent

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    • Clifford☯
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Great Article GB. Thanks a Lot !

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    • A.T
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Great work GB

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    • UnitedFan
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Good work GB.

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    • Ludo
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Great stuff GB.

      The main takeaway for me is the importance of home fixtures for picking up predictable clean sheets.

      Playing a defender at home to one of last year's three promoted teams (Burnley, Middlesbrough and Hull), two of whom were relegated, would have averaged 0.51 clean sheets per game.

      Playing away to those same three teams would averaged 0.28 clean sheets per game, similar to what you would have picked up against TOT or MUN.

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      1. Alan_T
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Also, there's plenty of cleanies up for grabs for home sides playing the mid table teams

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        1. Ludo
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          Absolutely, just illustrates the point that home games against midtable teams are generally a better bet than away games against sides at the bottom.

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          1. Alan_T
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 5 months ago

            Precisely. Need to have a real focus on home fixtures, not just blue ones!

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            1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              8 years, 5 months ago

              Doh! 😉

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      2. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Absolutely. Just looking at that ticker makes me realise I had been giving the wrong weightings to particular fixtures for years. Playing at home is far better, especially if you're Watford!!

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        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          R(H) R(a) Teams:

          1168.41 1036.29 ARS
          932.34 721.93 BOU
          905.99 731.74 BRI
          812.34 598.00 BUR
          1402.28 1158.00 CHE
          695.33 703.81 CPL
          1153.24 836.54 EVE
          749.95 647.39 HUD
          882.66 656.14 LEI
          1224.11 1050.44 LIV
          1119.47 1122.97 MCY
          1062.30 1032.74 MUN
          888.98 848.21 NEW
          859.95 866.04 SOT
          815.36 693.55 STK
          729.82 641.89 SWA
          1383.36 1210.63 TOT
          722.01 573.74 WAT
          904.23 750.78 WBA
          748.73 802.46 WHM

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    • makaveli123
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers, Higgs Boson!

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    • Hibbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Great article GB.

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    • Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Well done GB great work.

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    • Je suis le chat
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Brilliant article GB. Highlights West Hams and Bournemouths potential as well as the merit in getting players who play against relegation fodder who don't bother on their travels.

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    • Je suis le chat
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      I wonder what is the clean sheet breakdown per month or per 5/6 game increments during the season. Some of the relegation fodder as well as the safe teams may gave coughed up more clean sheets to their opponents towards the end of the season.

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    • Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks for the kind words everyone!

      The tier that stands out the most to me is thus one:
      3 = ARS, CHE, LIV, MCI, bou, mun

      The Bournemouth attack is formidable on its home turf, and still fairly good away! It is right up there with the top teams. If Defoe joins you can only see it going one way. Surely a deep red fixture for clean sheets.

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      1. A.T
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Yep, goals at both ends when Bournemouth play.

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    • Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Bravo, GB!!! 😀

      (Bournemouth too low, Crystal Palace too high.) 😉

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    • FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Fabulous article!

      Is this version of the ticker available in the members area?

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      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Yes, but you have to enter the ratings yourself.

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        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          We can put a man on the moon, but we get an clean sheet version of the ticker without a lot of monotonous data entry ðŸ™

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          1. FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 5 months ago

            *can't get

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      2. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        There's no import/export function that I can find so you have to enter it yourself.

        But when I logged on today all my filters were gone, so I have to re-enter. I'm on a different machine, so maybe it stores it in the cookies or something... It may be better to do it once and screenshot, or wait for upgrades to the ticker. It's too time consuming to enter every day! 😀

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        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          Sorry, can't be bothered with that. Frustrating that this functionality isn't available on the site.

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    • MTPockets
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Good stuff.

        Appreciate it's relative but why use the same equation for Away when the range appears different?

        i.e. Not sure if the ticker accounts for opposition away ranking when assigning home rating - but (for example) is it optimal to give Arsenal's 4 away clean sheets = away rating of 1314? Even if that's relatively good, is it absolutely good vs opponent home form?

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        1. Piggs Boson
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          I'm not quite sure what you mean.

          If you appreciate the relative nature, then surely you understand the importance of having home and away on the same scale!

          Arsenal's away rating was relatively good, for both home and away stats. They were good at scoring goals away from home and only 4 teams kept a CS against them!

          But if you think it is generally poor, despite being better than the others, should it only show grey instead of red? Are we interested in playing our defenders against "poor" attacks, or the "poorest" attack available. I would say the latter. We can only improve our odds.

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      • FPL Kangaroo
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Cracking article GB 🙂 You're the man !

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      • RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Excellent article, GB, but I think the figures for the 3 newly-promoted teams could be improved, since their performances in the Championship were not identical.

        If they suffer the same average deterioration from their last season in the Championship to their first season in the Premier League as the previous 21 newly promoted teams, then my forecasts for the number of clean sheets they are likely to concede is as follows:

        bri 3
        new, hud 5
        NEW 6
        HUD 11
        BRI 13

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        1. Piggs Boson
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          Interesting. I remember looking into whether a promoted teams's defensive performance in the Championship had any relationship with what they then achieve in the Premier League. I found very little, there seemed to be no relationship whatsoever. That's why I just set them all as low for now.

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          1. RedLightning
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            8 years, 5 months ago

            Clean sheets conceded, home & away, Championship -> Premier League:
            Newcastle 2017: 3&4 -> ?
            Brighton 2017: 2&8 -> ?
            Huddersfield 2017: 3&7 -> ?
            Average 2010-16: 3&5 -> 5&8

            Looking at the distribution of clean sheets conceded by newly promoted teams, they usually seem to concede about twice as many in home matches in the Premier League as they did in the Championship, but the number conceded in away matches is usually about 8 in the Premier League irrespective of how many they conceded in the Championship.

            I would therefore now suggest a revised forecast of:
            bri 4
            new, hud 5
            NEW 7
            HUD 8
            BRI 10

            Have you looked at the correlations for teams in successive Premier League seasons? Perhaps some regression towards the mean should be expected, in which case WAT might no longer be as high as 11.

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            1. Piggs Boson
              • 14 Years
              8 years, 5 months ago

              Nice RL!

              I have not looked in that much detail yet. But the promoted team rankings really do need to be improved, I agree. I like your approach above 🙂

              Many of the results in the article would need some regression to the mean tweaking for sure, but this article was just finding the raw stats as a base, because once you go further than that people have many methods and opinions on how best to precede.

              I may build on it in the future with some of your ideas though, thanks 🙂 But it's been a tough few days illness wise, so it may be a little while yet.

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              1. Piggs Boson
                • 14 Years
                8 years, 5 months ago

                proceed*

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        2. AK â­
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          Brighton with 3 clean sheets conceded at home and a massive 13 away, just doesn't seem right to me, RedLighting.

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          1. RedLightning
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            8 years, 5 months ago

            See my reply above.
            I have now revised that to 4 clean sheets conceded at home and 10 away.
            In last season's Championship they conceded 2 at home and 8 away.

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            1. AK â­
              • 13 Years
              8 years, 5 months ago

              Much more believable.

              Are we expecting Huddersfield to be the new whipping boys?

              Brighton looks like a really good side to bank on at the back, this comment by Ludo in today's Hot Topic has me sold!

              http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/06/24/the-community-round-up-200/?hc_page=1#hc_comment_15808386

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              1. RedLightning
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 15 Years
                8 years, 5 months ago

                Like Burnley last season, I expect Brighton to do well at home but to struggle in away matches.

                And yes, I do expect Huddersfield to be the new whipping boys.

                Newcastle should have the best chance of staying up.

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                1. AK â­
                  • 13 Years
                  8 years, 5 months ago

                  I had the same thoughts with the newly promoted teams. Cheers.

                  The rotation with Southampton for Brighton looks really good! I really hope Forster comes in at 5. For 9.5 in total, I'd be very interested in Ryan-Forster rotation

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                  1. RedLightning
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 15 Years
                    8 years, 5 months ago

                    Yes. They should rotate well for the first 11 or 12 game-weeks.

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      • Speédy
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Great job GB,very helpful.

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      • Ziro
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Brilliant.

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      • coriswrasse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        thank you for this. great job.

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      • Ruut
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Great article, thanks.

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      • Forza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        "United's centre-back issues resulted in them winning just three trophies"

        https://i.imgur.com/133SGq9.gif

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        1. Dreams
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          Hey, are you the one mentioned in Unreal's video?

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          1. Ziro
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 5 months ago

            different guy

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          2. Forza
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 5 months ago

            No, you're probably thinking of this guy: http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/profiles/reptile_nxt/

            He stopped posting before I signed up, so he's been gone for at least two years.

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            1. Dreams
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 5 months ago

              Oh. Cheers both.

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        2. Piggs Boson
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          https://i.imgur.com/usy0QnQ.gif

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      • Bedknobs and Boomsticks
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Fantastic stuff HB!

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        1. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          *GB!

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      • Bedknobs and Boomsticks
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Same analysis but for attacking difficulty, based on goals conceded home and away last season. If someone would care to plug it into a ticker....

        5 tot 1350
        8 che 1302
        9 mun 1286
        10 eve 1270
        11 CHE 1254
        11 liv 1254
        12 bur 1238
        12 MUN 1238
        13 ars 1222
        13 mcy 1222
        13 TOT 1222
        14 mid 1206
        14 MID 1206
        14 sou 1206
        15 ARS 1190
        15 sto 1190
        15 wba 1190
        16 MCY 1174
        17 EVE 1158
        17 lei 1158
        17 SOU 1158
        17 WBA 1158
        19 wat 1126
        20 cpl 1110
        21 bou 1094
        22 hul 1078
        22 LIV 1078
        22 whm 1078
        22 WHM 1078
        24 sun 1046
        24 SUN 1046
        24 WAT 1046
        25 BUR 1030
        25 STO 1030
        26 CPL 1014
        27 LEI 998
        28 HUL 982
        28 swa 982
        29 SWA 966
        30 BOU 950

        Shows that massive importance of home vs away again.

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