Opinion

The Knee Jerk – Gameweek 7 – Sunday

Sunday’s events did little to solve our striker problem.

We began the day scouting Alexandre Lacazette, who chose to blank in an Arsenal home match for the first time – frustrating the 265,000 who had acquired his services with the Brighton fixture in mind.

The Frenchman was also withdrawn early, with 20 minutes remaining, as Arsene Wenger handed Olivier Giroud some oxygen. That will always be an issue.

Clearly, Lacazette doesn’t fit into the same untouchable bracket as Alexis Sanchez; Wenger feels comfortable hooking and even omitting the striker from his starting line-up when he sees fit.

Combine that with the lack of away goals to this point, and it’s clear that the Gunners option has much ground to make up before we can consider him in the same bracket as Harry Kane or Romelu Lukaku.

Even as a third striker, we’d have to keep Alvaro Morata and Gabriel Jesus ahead in the pecking order for now.

So where does Roberto Firmino sit in those ranks?

His omission from Jurgen Klopp’s teamsheet was perhaps no big surprise; we were braced for it.

However, it arrives as another telling blow to the Brazilian’s stock at a time when we desperately needed him to show form and cement his status as a third striker.

Now we will surely continue to see his ownership and value plummet over the break, with the confidence of his 1.2 million owners broken by a run of blanks and Klopp’s selection.

Daniel Sturridge hardly passed his audition to claim the central role, and Firmino will surely be re-instated for the visit of Manchester United in Gameweek 8, regardless of his long-haul flight home.

But Liverpool’s attack are clearly faltering. They relied on the genius of Philippe Coutinho for today’s breakthrough, but it’s not the chance creation that’s broken – it’s purely their finishing.

The numbers show that Klopp’s attack have averaged 20 goal attempts over their last two Gameweeks, with three big chances per match. But only 20% of their efforts have hit the target, compared with 41% from Gameweeks 1-5.

Sturridge wasn’t the solution, and Firmino will return, but is the damage already done?

There will be some who end up holding Firmino just because of the lack of alternatives: we have Jamie Vardy and a cast of mis-firing, inconsistent candidates at 8.5 or below.

Just like Lukaku, we may look for a change but arrive at Gabriel Jesus as the only route.

The Brazilian is clearly an extremely credible candidate, with the fixtures to fly. But he’s also a player who – by his own recent admission – was playing the role of a “winger” or not playing at all when Sergio Aguero was fit.

We can settle on Jesus for now, but few of us will believe that it’s for keeps.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

3,594 Comments Post a Comment
  1. eamonhegg
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Choose ONE!

    A - Cedric & Sane/Sterling
    B - Naughton & Coutinho

    1. Ode
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    4. Simon Says...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    5. MikeDuff
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A Leroy

    6. Expected Toulouse
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    7. eamonhegg
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      So B Then haha

  2. Tshelby
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    DDG -> Forster ?

    1. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Yep

    2. Johnny Leghorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Only if you have Untied defensive cover. They will continue to be frugal.

  3. Ode
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    A) Alli & Lukaku -> Silva & Kane (-4)
    B) Lukaku -> Jesus FT
    C) Alli -> Silva FT

    Foster (Elliot)
    Naughton Alonso Kola (Cedric)
    *Alli* Eriksen Salah Ramsey (Cork)
    Abraham *Lukaku* Vardy

    1. MikeDuff
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Keep Alli for Bournemouth

  4. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Hello guys. I'd like to hear your thoughts whether this team warrants a wildcard. Haven't pressed the button yet but I think I'm very likely to do so. Marked with * the players I'd probably ditch on wildcard.

    Foster*
    Davies, Kolasinac*, Jones
    Ritchie*, Mkhitaryan*, Eriksen, Choupo-Moting
    Lukaku*, Kane, Firmino*

    subs: Elliott --- T.Carroll, Suttner*, Long* --- 1 FT, 0.2 ITB

    A) Firmino -> Vardy
    B) Mkhitaryan -> Silva
    C) Firmino & Mkhitaryan -> Vardy & Silva (-4)
    D) Wildcard

    1. Meinhoff
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      D.

      You will never have 10 players you need to transfer out.

      1. Jam0sh
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers Meinhoff

    2. MikeDuff
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'm doing C to Jesus/Morata and Ritchie

    3. Johnny Leghorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Did you watch the Arsenal game?
      Kola coulda, woulda, shoulda had a goal and an assist but it doesn't matter as he still gets the CS. True he's not a BAP magnet but he'll keep getting more chances than a Palace striker with the CS bonus.
      No way I'd be moving him on.

      1. Jam0sh
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I think Arsenal have been lucky not to concede at home against Wbrom and Brighton. If on wildcard, I think I'd prefer City/Chelsea defender in for him

  5. André94PT
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Good morning everyone!
    The breaks for international matches are quite annoying for me and as such I often find myself doing all sorts of things to keep myself occupied in the Fantasy Premier League. My most recent "hobby" was to find out what diferences (if any) there were in Manchester United's goal threat and in the two most-selected Red Devils outfield players when they played with and without Pogba.
    MAN UNITED STATS
    GW 1-4 (with Pogba) GW 5-7 (without Pogba)
    4.8 Mins per chance 6.6
    35.9 Shots accuracy 41.9
    78 Shots 43
    22.5 Mins per big chance 24.5
    16 Big chances 11
    ROMELU LUKAKU’S STATS
    GW 1-4 (with Pogba) GW 5-7 (without Pogba)
    18 Mins per chance 24.5
    45 Shots accuracy 54.5
    20 Shots 11
    51.4 Mins per big chance 54
    7 Big chances 5
    HENRIKH MKHITARYAN’S STATS
    GW 1-4 (with Pogba) GW 5-7 (without Pogba)
    47.3 Mins per chance 57.3
    14.3 Shots accuracy 50
    7 Shots 4
    N/A Mins per big chance 229
    0 Big chances 1
    Quick conclusions:
    - The number of shots of the team, as well as the shots of Lukaku, decreased drastically;
    - However, the shots have found the direction of the goal many more times;
    - These two previous numbers can be explained by the fact that Pogba "force" many times the shot from outside the area;
    - Do not buy Mikhitaryan if you're expecting goals from him;
    - Although Mikhitaryan and Lukaku are in fact far more effective to shoot at goal, what is also clear is that both players have more chances with Pogba on the pitch.

    1. Thiga
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      And things will probably get worse as we play harder teams. Goodbye Mkhi!
      Nice analysis.

    2. Clifford☯
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Great Post. Cheers!

    3. Expected Toulouse
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Very informative post, thanks.

    4. Patricio17
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      An interesting analysis, but just a few things I want to point out.

      - Since you're comparing 4 matches (GW 1-4) with 3 matches (GW 5-7), comparing the number of shots isn't that useful since there's a whole 90 min short on the GW 5-7 side. - I'm sure a large percentage of shots from GW 1-4 were actually shots that came from Pogba himself. So this would mean that the number of shots was always going to drop significantly with him out the side, and his direct replacement Fellani is less likely to try shots from distance compared to Pogba.

      So for the above reasons, I think it would be wise to ignore total shots, and rather focus on mins per chance/mins per big chance as this takes into account the amount of games played and gets an average. So just looking at mins per chance and mins per big chance, there's actually not that significant a decrease as you suggest. Number of shots, yes. But in terms of frequency of chances, there's only been a slight decrease.

    5. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks - the simplistic implication seems to be that there is a shoot on sight policy when Pogba is playing
      Without him there appears to be more caution - possibly a greater need to keep possession

      Unfortunately the sample size is very small and start of season results can be a problematic reference

  6. white lightning
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Geez the way Liverpool are playing I'm more than happy playing Jones, Mkhi & Lukaku against them in gw8. Although Mkhi could become Sterling for me but I'd still happily play Jones & Lukaku.

  7. jimmy.floyd
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Most nailed City def?

    1. Simon Says...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Otamendi

      1. Simon Says...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        And probably Walker too

    2. Foozeball
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      City's defense looks pretty set for now, aside from that LB spot being between Danilo and Delph. Otamendi has started in every game so far, so he looks to be the most nailed right now

      1. Foozeball
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Kompany returning to full fitness, whenever that is, will throw a wrench into City's lineup

  8. Foozeball
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Who do you think will be the first team to concede a goal to Palace?

    Whoever it is, I'm sure many of us will be upset because many will be investing in defenders playing against Palace lol XD

    1. Simon Says...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Chelsea. Think they'll get one against them.

    2. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      West Brom away to CPL .... week 38 🙂

  9. Simon Says...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Silva vs Sane vs Sterling. One of them coming in for Mkhi. Who ya got and why?

    My temptation is Sterling as he's always so involved. Although having him and Salah missing countless chances every week in my team may be pure torture.

    1. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Currently got Silva and Mkhi ... if Morata is fit then I will probably end up with Silva and Sane

      If Morata is out then I have a problem with 3 city slots, (Otamendi in defence) - I would expect to do Morata > Jesus and then not sure who gets the midfield spot

  10. gilean
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    A. Mounie, Cedric, Eriksen and Lukaku -> Morata, Jesus, Otamendi and CM for -8

    or

    B. Mounie and Cedric -> Joselu and Otamendi for free. Also have Ritchie

    ?

    1. Wetdream
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Keep Cedric he has good fixtures.

    2. Krionos
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Both ideas seem absolutely bonkers to me. Eriksen is a season keeper, Cedric has good fixtures, Lukaku scores every game.... And Morata is injured?

  11. OldBenKenobi
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Mkhi and Firmino > Richarlison and Morata?

    Would be after IB and if Morata is fit

  12. Bloh
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Already have Silva in my team. Thoughts on swapping Ali + Firmino to Sterling + Morata / Jesus and taking a -4?

    1. FPL Touches
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      May as well leave Alli and swap Firmino to Vardy?

    2. Meinhoff
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Sterling and Morata looks ok, but Sterling and Jesus is a bit much

  13. FPL Touches
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    If you had unlimited funds and could pick

    ANY midfielder and ANY striker for 1 WEEK ONLY, who would they be?

    Sanchez and Jesus?

    1. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Hazard and Kane

      1. FPL Touches
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Assuming we all already have Kane, who would be your second choice?

    2. Thiga
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Hazard. If Palace don't get their act together soon, which seems likely, Haz could have an uncharacteristic away haul 🙂

    3. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Sanchez and Jesus

    4. MikeDuff
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Hazard and Jesus

  14. jimmy.floyd
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Lukaku to Jesus?

    1. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Pool defence.

  15. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Elliot
    Alonso / Davies / Mee
    Eriksen / Salah / Mkhi / Gross
    Kane (C) / Lukaku / Abraham

    Foster // Mbemba / Carroll / Wimmer

    I reckon I am alright for next week, but I want to move Mkhi onto a City midfielder. Sterling is appealing to me, as I cannot do a straight-swap to Silva... unless I -also- switch Lukaku to Morata.

    I reckon I'll wait until after the International games to make any moves, but are these decent? Just have a feeling Lukaku might slow down in the next few.

    Otherwise, would you start Gross over Mbemba? (Noting I already have Elliot in goal).

    Cheers!

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      i have kola and silva instead of mkhi and alonso, apart from that we have the same team 🙂

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Those two have been doing better than my two in the last couple of GWs!

  16. Blue&White85
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Sorry for repost.

    Current team:

    Elliot
    Kolasinac Otamendi Trippier Cedric
    Alli Salah Antonio
    Kane (c) Lukaku Abraham

    Subs: Foster Cresswell, Carroll, RLC

    1 FT and 0 ITB.

    Should I save transfer? Was thinking save and in week 9 was going to downgrade Trippier or Kolasinac and upgrade Antonio.

    1. MikeDuff
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Save then Trippier Antonio to Cedric and Sane/Silva

      1. Blue&White85
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks but I've got Cedric mate.

  17. SADIO SANÉ
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone bringing in Xhaka on WC? He has four CS points in a row! Watford up next...he could get another one!

  18. dark91
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Might be a bit early to discuss but with Spurs facing Real Madrid on 17/10 , Liverpool on 22/10, West Ham 25/10 and Finally Man United on 28/10

    Can we expect some big rotation in the Bournemouth game on 14/10 after the international break or would the rotation happen during the Real Madrid game since Spurs are already level as top of their CL group?

    1. Lazaretti
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      And on 1st Nov Real Madrid again...

  19. ScotDougie
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    New article

  20. Simon Says...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    A lot of people seem to be planning to dump Lukaku. Looking at it, I think this is a huge risk, small reward move. Sure, his chances have dipped with Pogba injured and yes he isn't proving Kane-level explosive and yes he isn't on pens...

    But, he should've had two at least yesterday (and a couple of assists), he's on form, undroppable, scoring consistently and the next two are against weaker defences. He's also massively owned. And playing for the joint leaders of the league.

    Furthermore, it comes at a time when two of his competition - Aguero and Morata - are injured, Firmino is out of form and Vardy is (to a degree) hit and miss.

    Kane stands alone as the premium striker to own, but with all of these factors it's hard to dismiss Lukaku at present. The argument that you'll downgrade that spot and improve your midfield and defence has traction, but it relies on him blanking (which he has shown little sign of doing) and your replacements averaging more than he does.

    Of course, there are a billion ways to play this game. Punts win games, and fortune favours the etc etc...but a striker who is massively owned averaging over 7 points a game seems an odd choice to drop.

    1. Simon Says...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Reposted on new article.

    2. Patricio17
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'm inclined to agree with you on this one. I think if Aguero was fit, there would be some merit to picking Aguero with those City fixtures (and considering how explosive he can be) over Lukaku with his tougher fixtures. But with Aguero now out, it makes it a little tougher to drop him. Could Jesus now be considered over Lukaku, or do we instead look to City's midfield (Silva, Sterling, Sane,KDB) for points?

  21. Gigging Order
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    I need 1.5M to finance Firminho -> Jesus.

    Which of these to do for a hit?

    A) Eriksen to Sterling
    B) Ramsey to Atsu/Fellaini??
    C) De Gea to a 4.0 and play Elliott until I WC
    D) WC

    1. Kane Toads
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B .. Atsu

  22. Kane Toads
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    any thoughts on this WC team (haven't hit the button yet).

    Foster / Elliot
    Monreal Davies Daniels Ward / Rosenior
    Mhki DSilva Richarlison /Surman TCarroll
    Kane Lukaku Morata

    0.2 ITB

    cheers...

  23. sbasty
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Sane or Sterling or Silva is the question... As a City fan, here's my thoughts.

    Silva - played almost every minute. City have scored 22 goals and he has assisted 6 and not scored. That's not overwhelming me. Seems to be playing more advanced than last year, due to KDB's deeper role. Most expensive option.

    Sterling - increased minutes due to Aguero's injury. Fails the eye test as he misses a lot of chances. Despite lack of minutes still has 5 goals (0 assists which is surprising). Cheapest option.

    Sane - increased minutes due to Aguero's injury. Maybe the most dynamic option. Has had very limited mins, but still has 3 goals and 2 assists. Seems slightly overpriced for an option that is not nailed.

    What do people think?

    1. Kane Toads
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      answers the question I have been thinking - sounds like Sterling? 0.5m cheaper can go a long way.

    2. Patricio17
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      This is the question indeed. I would think it's between Sane and Sterling because of goal threat and the fact that they could be deadly differentials, but the question is who is more nailed? Bernardo still offers both competition.

    3. eamonhegg
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      D Silva will play so Safe Bet but not explosive
      Sane is more explosive with +12 points chances but biggest starting risk
      Sterling more likely to get goal and assist but slight rotation risk

      1 - Sane
      2 - Silva
      3 - Sterling

      Maybe...

  24. Ten Season Wonder
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Morning all, I'm looking to shift TAA asap, but who is the best replacement?

    Def 4.9 or under, thank you

    1. Tossed Salahd
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Ward seems great value.

    2. Spurred_On
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Ward, Burnley have looked impressive so far and their next 11 GW's look really good... only 4.6, nailed, picked up an assist against Everton and Bonus points look regular

  25. The Left Duke #3
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    What is the best GK cheap combo for a WC.....I'm looking at Ryan & Elliot

    Fixtures until Xmas day as follows:
    EVE CP SOU BOU STO WAT CP LIV LEI EVE BUR WAT

    All home games, I like it 🙂 Any other good combos?

    1. Patricio17
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      That looks pretty great actually. Also consider Pope from Burnley. Also a similar looking home run through to the end of the year.

      1. The Left Duke #3
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        The problem with the Pope Elliot rotation is from GW13 on they start to play home and away the same week which I dislike personally. Still good fixtures though

    2. zon
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Fabianski & Elliot: HUD CRY bur BRI bur BOU wba sto WBA EVE eve CRY liv BRI

      Gomes & Elliot: CRY STK BOU WHU WAT wba TOT LEI cry HUD bri LEI SWA

      Good run with Gomes with both teams in decent form.

  26. eamonhegg
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    So from that conclusive poll. CHOSE ONE.

    A - Cedric & Sane

    B - Cedric & Sterling

  27. The Left Duke #3
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    First stab at a WC.....would love your thoughts

    Ryan Elliot
    Davies Otamendi Alonso Wimmer Mee
    Alli Sterling Ritchie Carroll RLC
    Kane Jesus Vardy

    0.8m left ITB.
    Brighton Newcastle GK & Stoke Burnley DF home rotation are very good.

    Hate the midfield so may switch up Alli after his two home games agianst BOU & LIV.

    Thoughts?

  28. Pedaso Pirates
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Current squad:
    Fabianski/Elliott
    Davies/Otamendi/Jones/Tarkowski/Mbemba
    Mkhit/Ramsey/Ritchie/Silva/Carroll
    Kane/Lukaku/Firmino
    £0.3ITB

    Based on his form I am looking to drop Firmino for Jesus, and Mkhit for Richarlison would fund it.
    Good move?
    Better options?
    Cheers

    1. Jay Arell
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Sounds good!

  29. Blanka
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Loving that Morata is dropping, was 0.1m off affording him.

    Is length of lay off still sketchy?