What The Fixtures and Form Say – Gameweek 10 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 10’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I take the top six most popular captaincy options (according to the current FFScout Captain Poll) and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

Additionally, I have added a ‘goals conceded H/A’ column to take into account a respective fixtures defensive record. For example, Arsenal face Swansea at home this weekend, so for this we look at how many goals the Welsh side have shipped on their last four road trips. This will hopefully give a more balanced look at the fixture table and to give a potential insight on how certain teams are shaping up home/away.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away points per game (PPG) but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of two players are the same. The home and away PPG will take into account the last four Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

SUCCESS

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.

Last year’s season review can be found via this link.

Success will be defined as:

• Explosive = 10+ points
• Success = 7-9 points
• Average = 4-6 points
• Fail = no attacking returns

Let’s take a look at Gameweek 10’s results…..

Form

*Indicates 3 available games

** Indicates 2 available games

Fixtures

Results

Taking form and fixture indicators into account, Sergio Aguero is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method.

The Argentine tops the form table and has six goals and three assists in his last four appearances, giving him a total PPG of 11.75. He has an impressive away PPG of 10, although this is only from three available games’ worth of data.

It is also worth pointing out that a start this weekend away to West Brom is far from certain, as he played the full 120 minutes in the league cup against Wolverhampton midweek and City travel to Napoli next week in the Champions League.

Should he start the Baggies backline should be obliging, given they have conceded six times and allowed opponents 38 shots in the box in the last four Gameweeks.  While Tony Pulis’ troops only conceded three times in their four home games, these  were on paper easy ties (WAT, WHM, STO, BOU),  so it could be argued that they haven’t come across a potent attacking force in the shape of Pep’s men thus far. In addition, the Baggies were humbled 4-0 by the Sky Blues in this fixture last season.

Richarlison is the surprise package that finishes joint second this week and offers up a classic form vs fixture debate. The Hornets star only finishes fourth in the form table despite registering an impressive 6.75 PPG with two goals and three assists in the last four Gameweeks. His 3.5 home PPG is a slight concern for FPL managers. However, this week he faces a Stoke side that have shipped eight goals in their last four games and a staggering 12 goals in their last quartet of road trips – although it must be pointed out that seven of these were against Manchester City. The Potters have also conceded 39 shots in the box in the last four games and the Brazilian offers a strong captaincy option this week according to these results.

Clean sheet potential table