This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixture data.
Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 12’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games. Additionally, I have added a new ‘goals conceded H/A’ column to take into account a respective fixtures defensive record. For example, Arsenal face Swansea at home this weekend, how many goals have Swansea conceded away from home in their last 4 away fixtures? This will add to the totals of the other columns to hopefully give a more balanced look at the fixture table and to give a potential insight on how certain teams are shaping up home/away.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of two players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.
The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.
SUCCESS
What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.
Success will also be defined weekly as:
- Explosive = 10+ points
- Success = 7-9 points
- Average = 4-6 points
- Fail = no attacking returns
Gameweek 11’s top pick Harry Kane produced a ‘fail’ outcome of just two points in what was a stubborn defensive display from Crystal Palace. The England striker lasted just 76 minutes as he continued to have his minutes’ managed.
The clean sheet potential table highlighted Spurs and Huddersfield to keep clean sheets whilst the other teams in the top 5 (SOU, NEW, mun) conceded just the once.
Let’s take a look at Gameweek 12’s results…..
Form
| Rank | Player | Total PPG | Goals | Assists | H-PPG | A-PPG |
| 1. | Aguero | 11.5 | 6 | 2 | 8.75 | 10* |
| 2. | Sane | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 4.25 |
| 3. | Kane | 8.25 | 4 | 1 | 5.5 | 10 |
| 4. | Salah | 7.25 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7.75 |
| 5. | Morata | 3.75 | 1 | 1 | 2.75 | 8.75 |
| 6. | Lukaku | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 |
*3 away games
Fixtures
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded Total | Goals conceded H/A | Big chances conceded | Shots in the box conceded | Total |
| 1. | Kane | Arsenal (A) | 8 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 45 |
| 2.5 | Lukaku | Newcastle (H) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 34 | 42 |
| 2.5 | Morata | West Brom (A) | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 42 |
| 4.5 | Aguero | Leicester (A) | 4 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 40 |
| 4.5 | Sane | Leicester (A) | 4 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 40 |
| 6. | Salah | Southampton (H) | 4 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 35 |
Results
| Rank | Player | Form | Fixture | Total |
| 1. | Kane | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 2. | Aguero | 1 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| 3. | Sane | 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| 4. | Morata | 5 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| 5. | Lukaku | 6 | 2.5 | 8.5 |
| 6. | Salah | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Taking form and fixture indicators into account, Harry Kane is seen as the most likely to deliver attacking returns, ahead of his trip to Arsenal.
The Spurs frontman finishes third in the form table this week with a total PPG of 8.25, which includes four goals and an assist in his last quartet of run outs. He also has the joint highest away PPG in the game, which currently stands at 10.
In addition, the England international has the best fixture on offer from the top six of FFScout’s captains poll, given the Gunners have conceded eight goals, 13 big chances and 23 shots in the box in the last four Gameweeks.
While Arsene Wenger’s troops have only conceded once at home in the same time period, on close inspection these fixtures were against Swansea, Brighton, West Brom and Bournemouth. Another positive for Kane is that whilst others have been huffing and puffing away on international duties, he has been at home recuperating.
The second most popular pick in the FFScout captaincy poll is Romelu Lukaku but he only manages to finish fifth in the results table this week, largely down to his poor current form. The Manchester United striker has no goals and only two assists in his last four Gameweeks giving him a total PPG of just 3.5.
But taking into account that three of those four Gameweeks have involved clashes with Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea there is a strong chance that his lowly ranking is masking potentially strong returns. Indeed, over his last four home games his points per game is a far more impressive 9.
The Belgian also has a strong fixture, with Newcastle conceding four in as many run outs, as well as four in their last quartet of road trips. However, it is worth noting that over their last four Rafael Benetiz’s troops have not given up a single big chance, indicating an improved defensive resilience under the Spaniard of late.
Clean Sheet Potential
| Rank | Team |
| 1. | Manchester United |
| 2. | Burnley |
| 3. | Liverpool |
| 4. | Bournemouth |
| 5. | Brighton |
