Wisdom of the Crowd – Gameweek 12

Each week we are reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).

Gameweek 11 Review

Bournemouth’s win at Newcastle was the biggest upset of Gameweek 11, which feels like a long time ago.  Spurs beating Crystal Palace was obvious, but many of us were hoping for more than one goal in that game

Here are the Gameweek 11 results in descending order of predictability:

Well done to Elior Carsentie from Israel for winning the Yellow Cap in the FFS pool, who correctly predicted that Bournemouth win, as well as Burnley beating Southampton and Chelsea defeating Man United.

Mr Crowd Wisdom – using the aggregated predictions of the crowd – dropped another few places to 66th, but remains well above average.

After nine rounds, the Crowd Wisdom user is in the top 8% of all players in the UK and the top 12% of over 63,000 players around the world

The aggregated predictions of the community are making better predictions than most individual players in the game, suggesting that there is credibility in the Wisdom of the Crowd concept.

Gameweek 12 Preview

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in Gameweek 12:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

The headline news here is that the crowd is expecting Tottenham to beat Arsenal at the Emirates.  The North London Derby has a reputation for plenty of goals, but the average goals per match since 2013 is unremarkable at 2.2, whilst Arsenal have not beaten Spurs (home or away) since 2014.

Manchester City are back at the top of the predicted goals chart, with Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool not too far behind them.

The Red Devils’ defence is the only one the crowd believe will keep a clean sheet, when Newcastle visit Old Trafford. Their likely rationale is that if the Magpies cannot score at home to Bournemouth, they are unlikely to get much out of a trip to a side that is yet to concede on familiar turf.  This makes David De Gea arguably the standout goalkeeper selection this week.

As always, the City attack will be key, whilst now could be a good time to reinstate Romelu Lukaku and Alvaro Morata.

Here are the aggregated predictions that we’ll enter into the game for Mr Crowd Wisdom in the FFS pool.

Is there anything else that catches your eye in these crowd predictions?

Don’t forget to join the FFS league on Superbru and make your predictions each week so that they are included in these data – the more knowledgeable people there are, the more accurate they should be in theory.

Good luck!