I’m back from festival frolics and stateside visits to bring you the first of several reviews of the fantasy season. Breaking it down by each position, I get the ball rolling with my view on the goalkeeping situation, where I question the investment options, whilst offering some early pointers on the shortlist for next season.
Despite United and Chelsea dominating the clean sheet count, this was a season that only added doubt to the benefit of both Cech and Van der Sar as fantasy options. Highly priced in all fantasy games, there is always concern that in terms of “bang for buck”, there are better areas to spend the big money in a fantasy lineup. There’s no doubting that when clean sheets are king, such as in the Fantasy League games, the United and Chelsea keepers still offered some value. However, with injury disrupting the number of appearances of both the big signings, their returns were badly diminished, particularly in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game where regular starts really count.
Cech missed twelve Premiership games with ankle, hip and a facial injury -so despite Chelsea topping the clean sheet figures with twenty one, the Chelsea number one fell to fourth in the rankings in the Fantasy League and fifth in the Telegraph game. He came just ninth in the FPL. Van der Sar meanwhile, missed nine games to a groin problem which seemed to hang over him all season. He held strong in second in the Fantasy League and third in the Telegraph game but again trailed badly in terms of value in the FPL.
The big expensive keepers are always there to be shot at in the FPL. Low-to-mid-price options can often turn saves into high returns. And so it proved, with the likes of Hahnemann, Friedal and Green all ranking above Cech and Van der Sar this term. Had both Cech and Van der Sar enjoyed injury free seasons, things would have been markedly different – you only have to look at Reina, who ranked second for keepers in the FPL this term, for evidence that an ever present record and a decent clean sheet count can win out in terms of points. Reina notched half the number of saves as the mid-price keepers and still held strong in second by ten points. The Liverpool man also top scored in the Fantasy League and claimed second in the Telegraph but did he justify his universally high price tag?
In the FPL Reina’s price of 6.5 million saw him rank just ninth for value over the season, despite being ranked second on points. Wigan’s Kirkland came in just twenty seven points less than the Liverpool man, for a saving of 2.5 million. An ever present United or Chelsea keeper would have a wider points gap over someone like Kirkland but perhaps still not wide enough to justify the outlay. One of the key selections skills this season then was to identify those keepers who could get close to the likes of Cech, Van der Sar and Reina in terms of points, whilst offering big cash savings. That’s likely to be even more of an essential skill next season when many managers will look to pick an FPL sqaud around Torres and Ronaldo. Money will likely to be too tight to mention and something, probably the keepers, is going to have to give.
In the Fantasy League and Telegraph game, the price gaps aren’t so significant which means that the big three still offer good value, particularly when transfers are restricted. Indeed, I stand by the opinion expressed in my guide to selecting a Keeper and Defence, a view that the top tier keepers offer the cheapest and most effective method of drafting in a player from the top three defences. They undoubtedly offer “fire and forget” selections that can be made safe in the knowledge that they guarantee steady points over the season. This term however, that only proved to be the case with Reina who remained injury and rotation free throughout. That allowed mid-price pretenders into the picture – Howard in particular pushed hard with fourteen clean sheets and thirty six starts in the Fantasy League for his 3.8 million. In the Telegraph meanwhile, it was James who really excelled. Indeed, over the season and the average across the major fantasy games, the goalkeeping position belonged to the big Portsmouth keeper.
The Scout’s Selection
David James
Fourteen clean sheets, a string of saves, man of the match awards and Pompey’s Cup run saw James top the rankings in both the Telegraph and Fantasy Premier League (FPL) games. Positioned in the mid price bracket, the Portsmouth keeper offered decent value whatever your fantasy tipple. A good season always looked on the cards for James. Redknapp’s reinforcement of his defence with Distin offered indication that James could well benefit from a higher return of clean sheets. However, nobody could predict just how his form would flourish alongside Pompey’s increased resilience. A England recall followed a growing army of plaudits and James will go into next season with the England shirt back on his back. Redknapp will look to build on this season’s stable foundations. The creaking Campbell could well be replaced with an even stronger obstacle in the centre of defence, in which case, James looks a strong contender once more. Expect a fantasy price hike to match the increased expectation.
In Reserve
Pepe Reina
The Liverpool man earned the Premiership Golden Glove award for his 18 clean sheets, once again emphasising his fantasy value. This comes as no surprise to seasoned fantasy managers but despite this Reina is very much an unfashionable pick. He is priced extremely high in most fantasy games and hardly ever picks up extra points for saves, FPL bonus or Man of the Match awards. As I’ve said before though, Reina remains the one untouchable pick from a strong Liverpool defence. He seems almost invulnerable to Rafa’s rotation policy – missing just one single game this season. This is in stark contrast the defence in front of him – even Carragher – came under threat this term. With Agger returning to fitness and Skrtel emerging quickly as a first choice, I’d expect Reina’s position as the safest pick for Liverpool clean sheets to strengthen even further next term. He’s expensive then but as he proved again this season, he’s an ideal “fire and forget” fantasy purchase.
The Sleeper
Paul Robinson
I wasn’t expecting much from the Spurs defence, even with the arrival of Ramos, but Robinson’s season was disastrous. It didn’t take long for the new manager to lose confidence in him and Robinson’s place was under threat early on from Cerny. He eventually dropped out of favour in January for five games, then again in April. From that point on, Robinson found himself looking on from the bench. Yes there were niggling injuries but a complete loss of confidence was the main culprit behind a season to forget. A season which also saw him lose his status as the England number one.
A summer move looks on the cards but regardless of his destination, there are unlikely to be many fantasy managers looking his way until there is clear evidence that Robinson has regained the confidence to find the form that brought him England honours.
The Scout is Watching…
Chris Kirkland
The Wigan stopper had a superb season – not least because he remained injury free and started 37 first team games. The arrival of Steve Bruce prompted a new-found defensive strength at Wigan and Kirkland’s stats benefited as a result. Seven clean sheets in the final twelve games saw him shoot up the keeper rankings and there’s every reason to suspect that Wigan and Kirkland will carry that kind of form into next term as he makes a concerted push for the England number one spot. Scharner’s situation could be a factor but if he stays and Bruce adds further strength to his back four, then Kirkland should kick on and present strong value once again for a low-to-mid price range.
Joe Hart
The City keeper has had an outstanding first season as the City number one. Key injuries to his defence – Richards in particular – left him exposed hence he gained just seven clean sheets in twenty six starts. I’d expect things to improve next season in that department, although much will depend on how City strengthen at the back given that Dunne looks set to leave the club. Like Kirkland, Hart will be pushing for the England squad next season and he’s sure to be under the microscope as a result. I’d expect a good few clean sheets and some decent FPL bonus next season, although be prepared for a price hike.
The Bolton Situation
Megson’s arrival and shortly after, the signing of Cahill from Villa, saw Bolton’s defence find some rigidity after looking woefully frail to that point. There were major wobbles in February and March, but Bolton rediscovered their defensive form when it mattered most – at the end of the season. Megson takes great pride from clean sheets and, while Bolton lack a cutting edge up front, it’s likely he’ll approach next season with a similar view on how to steer his side to survival – keep things tight.
The situation is made all the more intriguing by the fact that long-term first choice, Jussi Jaaskelainen, is out of contract and could well leave the club in the summer. There are strong rumours that the Finn is in talks with the club over a new deal and, if that’s the case, then I’ll be elevating him in my shortlist for next season once there’s assurance that he is over his injury woes. If the contract talks are pure fiction or prove unsuccessful then Megson will be in the market for a keeper. Al Habsi has occupied the jersey whilst Jaaskelainen has been sidelined with a back injury Megson will want backup at least for this position. Whoever emerges as first choice at the Reebok will be worth consideration – particularly if the price is right.