There’s only one subject fit for this morning’s preamble and that’s the great FPL transfer debate.

Thanks to United’s missing fixture and a few untimely suspensions and injuries, Gameweek 27 looks likely to be a turning point – a chance for differentials to be found and gaps to be closed. The FPL transfer system offers us a “He who dares…” situation. The question is, do you stick or twist?

So how are we feeling this morning? In the mood for a gamble perhaps? As I mentioned last night, I took the plunge with my free transfer and gave myself some thinking time on my next move(s). In previous weeks I’ve been using my cup opponents as a guide to the extent to which I can flutter with transfers. Recently double changes have been paying off for me, so a two transfer move in this week of all weeks, was always on the cards. The fact that my cup opponent (also cursed with three United players, but also with the suspended Paintsil) has made two to this point, seals my double move and has me seriously contemplating a third. Before I go further into my own situation, let’s go over the principles that govern this week’s transfer conundrum.

Each additional transfer costs 4 FPL points. If you’re faced with players in your eleven who are unlikely to start and therefore earn at least 2 points, then the cost of each change is feasibly cut in half. Therefore the gamble is certainly lessened. If you already have 11 starters in your lineup then you’re going to have to be convinced that the players you bring in will fetch returns to take them to 6 points or above, in order to justify the spend.

That sounds like a big ask – however there are some examples that do look very likely to bring in extra points. Everton’s fixture with struggling West Brom offers a strong opportunity for a clean sheet from their defence, plus a goal or two for Jo or Cahill who will be Everton’s cheif attacking threat. I’m still nervous about Arteta’s absence but given West Brom’s record away from home, backing Everton still looks a good option. What’s more, their fixtures over the next 3-4 gameweeks (bla STK por WIG) are strong enough to suggest that investment now will pay off in the short-to-mid term.

The same can be said of the Chelsea defence who face a Wigan side at Stamford Bridge who have struggled badly for goals. There are issues here though – notably the absence of Bosingwa as an option due to suspension, the uncertainty surrounding Alex with Carvalho likely to return next gameweek, plus the fact that Chelsea defenders are less likely to earn bonus points compared to the likes of Jagielka and Lescott in the Everton defence. You can apply the same logic to the Arsenal back four this week. Good potential against Fulham at the Emirates, more chance of rotation and certainly less opportunity for bonus points than the Everton candidates.

An interesting alternative to this is introduced by Blackburn players, who, as I mentioned in my Weekend Scout Notes last time out, offer the benefit of a double fixture next gameweek (EVE ful). That means that they do offer some compensation next week for additional spend in this gameweek. So if you bought McCarthy for 4 points this week – you have a chance to earn back 2 points of that cost in points from him playing 2 matches next gameweek. In his case that’s a decent sized “if” – Allardyce may rotate his strikers which perhaps makes the likes of midfielder Gamst-Pedersen, who is more certain to start the next three, a safer if less spectacular option. Basically you can invest points in this gameweek in your plans for Blackburn’s double fixture to come, and hope that the returns come in.

You can use the Blackburn situation in another way. Let’s say you were planning on bringing in a couple of Everton players in the next two gameweeks in order to capitalise on their kind forthcoming fixtures. If you invest in Everton this week, you are then free in the next gamweek to use your transfers to invest in Blackburn in order to maximise their double fixtures. The only issue here is that one of Blackburn’s fixtures is against Everton, so with one of their defenders and a Blackburn attacking player, you would be hedging your bets rather than heading for big profits. Having said that, Spurs, Sunderland and Fulham also have two fixtures next gameweek so you’d also be free to consider their players.

Let’s try to add some more clarity by looking at my own situation. With Berbatov, Vidic and Ronaldo going into the gameweek and having already made two transfers, I’m left with a defence that has Mendy and Djourou who may or may not start and earn me those 2 points at least. I also have N’Zogbia who will start but travels to Stamford Bridge where he could easily return less than 2 points if Chelsea find goals. That means, even after two transfers, I have three players who all threaten to bring in less than 2 points. I also have Andrew Johnson up front who will struggle to bring more than 2 points at the Emirates.

I’m now left with a decision on whether to trade one of these three precarious defenders in or use Vidic as my trading player. In order to make that worthwhile, I’d need to find a defender who has a strong chance of bringing me a clean sheet, perhaps even bonus or a goal, and who looks likely to bring in profits in the coming gamweeks. Luckily Everton provide several possibilities in Jagielka, Baines and Lescott. I can get Baines in for either Djourou or Mendy but his potential returns, in my view, trail those of Jagielka and Lescott. In order to get one of those two however, I’d need to trade in Vidic.

Now this isn’t as crazy as it sounds – Ferguson has proven that he is not afraid of resting Vidic prior to Champions League games, United have tough fixtures against Liverpool and Villa to come in the next month and, should I want to fetch a United defender back, Evra is available as a cheaper option. Swapping him for Lescott now gives me a player who has the potential to get me a clean sheet at home to West Brom, has a threat from set-plays (a West Brom weakness) and has strong fixtures in the coming weeks. It also allows me the luxury of having a bench player at the ready should the likes of Mendy or Djourou fail to start.

As you can tell then, I’m very close to pressing the button for the third time. That’s something that a lot of you have been tempted to do judging by the poll on the site which shows nearly a quarter of you making three changes. It’s a difficult choice and certainly a gamble if you’re sitting in a precarious mini-league situation. My outlook since the turn of the year has been to gamble and in the main, it’s paid off. You may feel differently. To help you out and to bring this preamble to a close, here’s a recap of the points I’ve rambled on about above. It comes with my usual good luck message for what promises to be a pivotal gamweek. Oh and FPL captain? Lampard if you’ve had enough gambles for one day. Cahill, Jagielka or Lescott if you want to back your luck all the way.

Gameweek 27 – The Checklist

Check those around you in your mini-league and see how many transfers they’ve used so far this gameweek. Their spending may afford you a gamble. Make sure you make your additional transfers near the deadline so as not to hand them such an advantage.

Are you fairly certain you have eleven players playing? If it’s a yes then you’d need to be convinced that the player you bring in can earn you 6+ points.

On that note, does the player(s) you’re brining in have potential for bonus points? Check their history and examine their record so far over the season. These points can make all the difference in justifying the transfers.

Does the player you’re considering offer strong value beyond this week? In other words, do their fixtures fall kindly enough for you to consider them a decent short-to-mid term move? You don’t want to spend on them now only to bench them over the next two gamweeks.

Does making additional transfers this week offer you potential to make profitable changes next week? So if you make two Everton signings now and these were always part of your mid-term plan, does that free you up to maximise Blackburns double fixture in the next gameweek?