Whether you are playing your second wildcard straight away, or holding on for a couple more weeks, there has never been a better time to take a punt on a couple of relative unknowns. Personally, I’ll be stewing over what to do with Didier Drogba now that Carlo Ancelotti is ‘Apparently’ considering dropping Drogba for Daniel Sturridge for todays game. With the the ability to erase all of my mistakes with a wildcard next week, I might just do exactly the same thing. The thinking behind this risky move is explained below, along with another selection of “Differentials” for you to ponder over…
Martin Kelly
Kelly has been floating around the first team all season, but until last weekend it looked as if he would be restricted to playing the odd game in the Europa League. With Hodgson gone and Paul Konchesky seemingly frozen out of the side however, he may well get his chance sooner than he expected. He was drafted in at right back for the FA Cup game against Man United after Glen Johnson pulled out at the last minute, and his individual performance in that game was good enough to see him retain his place for the league game against Blackpool, despite Johnson being available. Kenny Dalglish praised his performance after the United game saying “he was as good as anyone on the pitch today”, and after another strong showing against Blackpool that included providing the assist for Torres’ goal, he is expected to start again in the Merseyside derby tomorrow.
Its hard to see regular right back Glen Johnson being dropped, but with Dalglish already proving he is prepared to shift the England International to left back to accomodate Kelly, he has a good chance of getting a run in the side from here on in. Liverpool face an Everton side on Sunday that have scored just once in their last four trips to Anfield, and with another double Gameweek next week, Kelly could provide some solid returns. At just 4.2m and an ownership of 0.3%, if he gets another 90 minutes against Everton, he will surely go on to be one of the most popular wildcard picks around.
Pablo Zabaleta
Former Differential pick Aleksander Kolarov looks likely to return to the first team this weekend, but his 57th minute substitution against Blackpool (a game in which Blackpool winger Matt Phillips ran rings around the Serbian International) and the game missed last weekend through illness will have many Fantasy Managers reaching for the transfer button anyway. Zabaleta on the other hand, seems to offer City an attacking threat going forward, without leaving them overly exposed at the back and the statistics certainly back this up; he makes twice as many successful tackles per game as Kolarov, and of the 15 games that Zabaleta has played a part this season, City have kept 11 clean sheets and conceded just 6 goals.
While City have several options at full back in Richards, Boateng and Lescott, Zabaleta is just as comfortable on either side of the pitch and looks a lot less likely to be rotated than the others, making his 5.9m valuation seem justified. With an ownership of just 1.3%, compared to Toure with 11.6% or Hart with 34.4%, the extra attacking potential and cheaper price tag make him an excellent differential if you are looking to invest in the City defence. While City do not have any double Gameweeks coming up, their next four against WOL, avl, bir, WBA offers plenty of potential for clean sheets, and their defenders will more than likely outscore most other sides over this period.
Craig Gardner
Gardner may not be everyone’s idea of a glamour signing, but let’s be realistic, at 4.9m options are pretty limited, and Gardner offers regular starts, a reasonable goal threat and the exciting prospect of a Triple Gameweek in week 27, so could be an excellent differential over the next four to five weeks. New arrivals David Bentley and Robbie Keane (assuming he agrees terms with Birmingham) offer good alternatives, but both will take several weeks before they can be classed as ‘match-fit’, and as neither will be competing for Gardner’s place in centre midfield, their arrival should benefit, rather than hinder his Fantasy returns.
Birmingham’s goal scoring record this season has been pretty woeful; they have averaged just one goal per game so far, but Gardner is at least top of the scoring charts on four goals. A look into the OPTA stats show that they were no flukes either, Gardner has made 29 attempts on goal so far this season, more than the rest of their midfield put together (excluding Larsson), and more than any of their strikers.
Daniel Sturridge
Sturridge has now scored seven times in his last two games, after his brace against Ipswich added to the five he scored in a reserve game three days earlier, and he could be set for his first league start of the season against Blackburn later today. His pace and confidence will bring something fresh and new to the Chelsea side, and could be just what they need to get themselves out of their current slump. Chelsea’s strength and power in midfield and attack has served them well over the last 18 months, but opponents have figured out how to shackle their full backs and restrict the space available for Anelka, Drogba and Malouda to control the ball. Sturridge offers something different; the ability to run at defenders at pace and get behind them stretches the play and opens up space for team mates to push forwards, something Chelsea have not seen since the days of Robben and Duff.
If Sturridge were to nail down a regular place, he could become a Fantasy goldmine with a current price of just 5.2m, and ownership of 0.2%. While Ancelotti may be willing to give Sturridge his first league start against Blackburn, a fixture with an aggregate score of 10-0 over the last four seasons, his long term potential in a side containing Drogba, Malouda and Anelka is obviously restricted. If he plays a big part in a convincing victory against Blackburn however, it may become impossible for Ancelotti to leave him out.
The best of the rest
Nearly making it this week was Wigan’s Ben Watson, who at 4.2m and an ownership of just 0.2% could be one of the best bargain picks over the next two weeks. Wigan have a good fixture this weekend and a double next week, and as he has played every minute of their last six games, he looks likely to be involved in all three games.
Jermaine Beckford has been the main beneficiary of Tim Cahill’s absence, and with Everton going into the Merseyside derby with plenty of confidence after finally learning how to score, Beckford could find him self on the score sheet for the second game in a row. Finally Blackpool’s Matt Phillips was excellent against Man City, and at 4.5m, he could be a decent differential to Charlie Adam if he nails down a regular spot.
