😀 Thank you very much!

doosra I don't think I understand even 10% of your posts

I will endeavour to be pellucid.

lol make that 9%

😆 I will try to be very clear, in future!

9.1%

so why is a price drop more likely for one than the other i.e. it's 10% either way...that's the part of your reasoning I don't follow

Ok I'll illustrate this a different way:

You give me 10% of a million dollars and I'll give you 10% of a thousand dollars, that's the same right? It's 10% both ways.

(a) I'm not thick so no need to patronise me
(b) in either example 10% of owners have to decide to sell
(c) so, for the second time, why is a low ownership player more likely to drop in price than a high-ownership player?
(d) and where is your evidence?

in fact it'll be the opposite to what you think...people will quite correctly care much more about Rooney or Van Persie than Holt

I'm sorry you don't get it dribbler, but I'm not going to spend my afternoon explaining it over and over again, the laws of arithmetic will survive without my defending them on an internet forum.

the laws of arithmetic say that 10% = 10%

I'll check later for your answer to my ACTUAL question

yeah I get that but see above

lol telling the full dirty details would involve too much pain

what's rubbish?

Your explanation of price rises and falls.

it wasn't an explanation it was a prediction...I agree with your explanation and I'm baffled why you're arguing with me...now chew on this for a while

OK, especially for Wookie, here is my beginners guide of how to
understand and work the transfer system. If I got something wrong
please feel free to correct me:

Many experienced players will be trying to build their team value,
especially in this early part of the season. If you pick the cheapest
possible squad it costs you £64m leaving you £36m to spend as you
choose. If you can increase your squad value to £104m (using selling
prices) you have increased your spending power by over 10% for the
latter part of the season. In a few months you will see many players
with team values of £106m-£108m and more. If you're drifting along on
£100.5m don't be surprised if these people forge ahead of you in the
second half of the season.

It's important to note that you only get half of your profit when you
sell a player and odd numbers are rounded down. The kind FPL
organisers let you keep all your losses though.

Let's keep the numbers simple. If 1.5m people are playing the game at
the start of the season and a player is owned by 33% of teams, he has
500,000 owners. As people buy and sell him his price may change.

You have to look at purchases minus sales. This is called "net
transfers in" (NTI). There is a "rise threshold" of 25,000 NTI and a
"drop threshold" of 10%.

This means that our player's price will not change so long as his
ownership remains within the band 450,000-525,000. If 20,000 people
buy him in the first week his ownership is 520,000 and his price will
not change. If 60,000 people sell him the next week his ownership is
now 460,000 and his price will still not change. This will continue
until his ownership busts out of this range.

So you can see that his NTI is not reset at the end of the gameweek.
Because of this it is not enough to look at "transfers in (gameweek)"
(except for the first week of the season).

Thankfully, there is a guy called Diamondplus on the FISO site who
does this for us. He downloads transfer statistics from the FPL site
and estimates when prices will change. If you check at the bottom of
this page, there is a link to his site called "FPL Values - Crack The
Code" (CTC).

Now let's go back to the start of the season. Let's say 20,000 people
buy our player in the first week. His price does not change. Then on
Saturday at the start of the second week he scores 2 goals and 10,000
people buy him. He is now over the rise threshold. Still his price
will not rise on Saturday evening. But we know for certain that it
will rise in the overnight update. This is 12.30am BST Sunday
morning, or within 2-3 hours of that time. They don't always update
at the same time but you need to act by 12.30am to be certain of
getting your transfer done. (WARNING: I'm uncertain whether this
will switch to 12.30am GMT when the clocks change).

Now you'll notice that after the update our player has 530,000 owners.
His rise threshold and fall threshold are now recalculated. His
price will rise at 530,000+25,000 and his price will fall at
530,000-53,000. Our new band is 477,000-555,000. So long as his
ownership remains within this range his price will not change.

Alert readers will have noted that we had 5,000 more transfers than we
needed for our price rise. These 5,000 transfers are "lost to the
market". In other words they do not count towards the next price
rise. This isn't tremendously important but it often confuses people
when a player is bought heavily and lots of transfers-in are lost in
this way.

Back to the start of the season again. Let's assume there are no
midweek matches. Our man scores a hat-trick and the Mongol Hordes buy
in their droves. 15,000 on Saturday and 15,000 on Sunday. His price
rises overnight. 5,000 transfers are lost to the market. For a
second price rise in the SAME gameweek his rise threshold will be
25,000*2=50,000. His ownership will need to rise to 580,000. The
buying continues through the week but at a slower rate. By Friday
night his ownership has reached 570,000 so on Saturday morning his
price has not risen for a second time.

But something happens on Saturday morning to upset our calculations.
At 11.30am BST we have the start of a new gameweek. This means that
the rise threshold is reset. Our hat-trick hero hasn't had a
price-rise in this new gameweek so his rise threshold will be
25,000*1=25,000 and his price will rise when he gets
530,000+25,000=555,000 owners. But he already has 570,000 owners so
his price is pretty much guaranteed to rise unless he breaks his leg
and he is heavily sold on Saturday. This has important implications
for dedicated and alert FPL players.

If you are buying a player on a Saturday you can sometimes get a
"free" price rise this way. This is important because some of the
players you buy will do well and others will do badly. If you get a
"free" price rise it will take 2 price falls before you lose money.

Now look at the CTC site. Click the "Rises" tab. Here we can see the
actual rise threshold is estimated at 25,425. This is likely to fall
through the season as people give up the game and the overall number
of transfers decreases. As I write this Darren Bent is 127% so his
price will rise tonight. Mark Noble is 98% but this data was
collected at 6.00pm so, because people are buying him, it's probable
that his price will rise as well. Wayne Rooney is next in line. He
needs about 3,500 more buyers for a price rise.

This means that when you are thinking about who to buy you can look at
CTC and, if you want to, you can pick somebody who is close to a price
increase. Even if his price doesn't go up, he'll be that much further
from a price fall than most other players.

Now click the "Drops" tab. Various players look like they are going
to drop in price tonight. If you are thinking of buying one of these
players tonight you might want to hold-off until his price drops and
you can get him cheaper.

Back to our example. The second Saturday of the season. Our
wonderfully gifted superstar breaks his leg and the Mongol Hordes
start to sell. Remember his ownership is 570,000 and his newly
calculated "stable-price band" is 477,000-555,000.

(n.b. Even though he is being sold, if his ownership remains above
555,000 on Saturday night his price will still increase. This is
likely to be a freak situation though and of little practical
relevance).

Now let's assume that everybody at FPL Towers is out on the lash all
weekend and don't drag themselves into the office until Monday
morning. Bleary-eyed they check if the bonus points have been messed
up yet again and start to trawl through the official club websites for
injury news. About lunchtime they become the last people in Britain
to notice that the winker has broken his leg. They flag him as
injured and run their "mini-update" when they get round to it. All
this is important because there is often a delay between a player
getting injured and FPL getting round to red-flagging him.

Now remember that our hero was owned by 570,000 teams when he had his
"accident" and needs to drop below 477,000 before his price goes down.
The Mongol Hordes also go out on the lash, but by Sunday night there
will have been lots of sales. Let's examine 2 scenarios:

(A) His ownership on Sunday night is 500,000. This is not enough to
trigger a price drop. On Monday he is red-flagged and his drop
threshold becomes 22.5% instead of 10% which is 530,000-22.5%=411,000.
Now his stable-price band is 411,000-555,000 instead of
477,000-555,000. So you can see that his price can still go down but
it takes many more sales to reach the drop threshold. This is how the
system is supposed to work. (We will talk about a player who comes
back from injury below).

(n.b. 70,000 people have sold our player and his ownership is 500,000
so many people will expect his price to fall because 70,000 seems to
be above 10% of owners. You'll see their posts on this site. That's
another reason you need to use CTC.)

But it's only Monday. SELL, SELL, SELL. By Wednesday ownership is
down to 400,000 and there is a price fall despite the red flag. We
calculate a new drop threshold as 400,000-(22.5%*2). So our
stable-price band is 220,000-425,000. Wow, look at the huge number of
sales we need for a second price decrease that same week. A second
price fall is always going to be unlikely for a flagged player because
there are always loads of players who don't actually care. Watch out
for next week though. The band will change to 310,000-425,000.

(B) His ownership on Sunday night is 450,000. This is sufficient to
trigger a price drop because FPL Towers have been tardy in
red-flagging the player. This happens quite a lot and it's very
important to pay attention otherwise you will be the victim of the
price drop. Remember that a players' ownership may have been just
above the drop threshold in the first-place. My example is one
extreme where many sales are needed for a price drop. Sometimes it
doesn't take many sales for an unflagged player to drop in price.

When a player returns from injury something new and very confusing
happens. His price is protected for 7 days??? After that NTI is
reset??? This causes repeated chaos on this site so let's continue
our example:

It was a simple leg-break and our superstar (Chris) plays his first
match 10 weeks later on a Saturday. He still has 250,000 owners.
What's more he scores and people start buying. Will his price
increase? Well that's a good question. Sometimes FPL Towers will
have realised that he's back in training and will have unflagged him.
Other times information is scarce or non-existent, he is still flagged
until Monday lunchtime. Basically I'm a bit confused about whether or
not his price can change if he's returned to action whilst still
flagged.

So let's just look at the system as it's supposed to work. Once our
hero is unflagged his price is frozen for 7 days. So the flood of
buyers for our returning superhero matters not one jot. None of these
transfers count towards a price increase. Unfortunately the CTC site
can't seem to give us this information in a way that I understand
(maybe I've not tried hard enough) so it will show a player 200%
towards a price rise and yet his price doesn't change. (n.b. I could
talk about this problem in more detail but I think it's beyond the
scope of this post). If at the end of the 7 days ownership is 300,000
we calculate the rise and drop threshold as normal and his price will
then behave normally.

Well if anyone got to the end of all that let me know if you think I
made a mistake. It was a bit of work so I may post it again at some
point especially if I can improve it. If you're new to all this it
might be an idea to save it. Cheers.

so i understand it OK??????

AND IF YOU'RE REALLY SMART YOU'LL SPOT THE MISTAKE

"is there some kind of allowance for cheaper players to increase with fewer transfers"...not as far as I know but the rules are secret and may have been changed

(a) my post above tries to explain it
(b) thankfully it's much easier to just check total fpl

"players get temporarily protected from drops when they’ve just been injured or suspended"...rubbish