It’s time once again to slope into the bookies and purr over their markets, examining the latest odds from our friends at Paddy Power to see if they can shape our Fantasy thinking going into another gameweek, with sneak peak at the Scout and Money Back Specials thrown in…
Clean Sheet Odds
| Team | Odds | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man United | 1.72 | Tottenham | 2.75 |
| Liverpool | 1.90 | Swansea | 3.00 |
| Arsenal | 2.20 | Fulham | 3.00 |
| West Brom | 2.29 | Bolton | 3.40 |
| Sunderland | 2.62 | Norwich | 3.40 |
One glance at this market, and those that follow, confirm Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal as the sides to back going into the weekend fixtures. Having kept four clean sheets in the last five, United are clear front runners with Paddy for a shut-out against Wolves at Old Trafford. The trick for Fantasy managers is, of course, to find a source of points from Alex Ferguson’s defence. As mentioned in our Watchlist Updated article earlier this week, Phil Jones remains the weapon of choice and with Nemanja Vidic now stricken by his midweek injury, Jones would appear an almost certain starter. The question is, will United maintain their defensive form without Vidic at the heart of the back four? Paddy lengthened their odds overnight but still have them as firm favourites for a shut-out.
Liverpool are well fancied at home to QPR, while Arsenal are third favourites – although it must be said that confidence in a clean sheet at home to Everton is not too strong. Indeed, West Brom at home to Wigan come close, ranking fourth in Paddy’s odds to offer Fantasy managers food for thought in the budget defensive bracket. With good creativity, we’re liking Nicky Shorey as an option here – expect him to get close to Scout Picks selection on Friday evening.
The Martin O’Neill factor may have something to do with Paddy’s outlook on Sunderland’s prospects of a clean sheet against Blackburn, they’re fifth favourites here, despite the fact that Rovers have scored in each one of their away games this term. We’re slightly surprised that Paddy would opt for the Black Cats over Swansea, who also rank below Spurs in terms of their clean sheet chances. Tottenham are at shot-shy Stoke, while the Swans host Fulham at the Liberty Stadium, having conceded just 2 goals at home all season.
Perhaps the most sobering odds concern Chelsea (3.40) and Man City (3.75) – clearly Paddy fancy goals in this encounter, with both sides boasting long odds. Fantasy managers going into the weekend holding Vincent Kompany, Micah Richards or a Chelsea defender may well be pondering short-term transfers, particularly as City host Arsenal next weekend.
Team Goals Odds
| Team | 1+ Goals | 3+ Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Man United | 1.02 | 2.00 |
| Liverpool | 1.04 | 2.29 |
| Arsenal | 1.07 | 2.87 |
| West Brom | 1.11 | 3.50 |
| Sunderland | 1.12 | 3.60 |
| Tottenham | 1.14 | 4.20 |
| Chelsea | 1.20 | 4.50 |
| Bolton | 1.20 | 5.00 |
| Norwich | 1.20 | 4.50 |
| Newcastle | 1.25 | 5.50 |
United dominate the goalscoring stakes – and it’s interesting to see that, despite scoring more than one goal just once in their last nine games, they are far more fancied to score three goals or more than the likes of Arsenal and Spurs, who have both been scoring for fun of late. Those Fantasy managers pondering moves for attacking talent within United’s squad certainly have the backing of the bookies then.
Again, Sunderland’s odds are of interest. Paddy feel that they are more likely to score against Blackburn than Spurs are at Stoke- indeed, Martin O’Neill’s side are also thought to be more likely to fetch three or more goals than Harry Redknapp’s side at the Britannia. That’s sobering stuff for those backing Spurs heavily going into the weekend. Those holding on to Rafael Van der Vaart in the hope that he will work his way back into Harry’s lineup will be assessing those odds with interest – clearly Paddy feel that the Stoke defence will present an obstacle that will restrict Tottenham’s attacking potential. That’s also reflected in the “Anytime Scorer” odds below.
West Brom are again well placed in these team goals odds – ranked fourth favourites to score one or more against Wigan – making them more likely to notch than Spurs, Chelsea and City in Paddy’s eyes. Like Shorey in defence, the likes of Chris Brunt and particularly Shane Long, are worthy of attention here.
Those backing the Newcastle attack and, in particular Demba Ba, will notice that Paddy has Sunderland, Bolton and Norwich all ranked above the Magpies in terms of their chances of scoring. Again, this is reflected in the Anytime Scorer odds below.
Anytime Goalscorer
| Forwards | Midfielders | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds |
| Rooney | 1.44 | Nani | 2.29 |
| Welbeck | 1.61 | Young | 2.40 |
| Van Persie | 1.66 | Walcott | 2.80 |
| Suarez | 1.66 | Arshavin | 2.80 |
| Bellamy | 2.00 | Rodriguez | 2.87 |
| Long | 2.29 | Adam | 2.87 |
| Odemwingie | 2.29 | Van der Vaart | 2.87 |
| Adebayor | 2.40 | Kuyt | 2.87 |
| Defoe | 2.40 | Sessegnon | 3.00 |
| Bent | 2.60 | Bale | 3.25 |
| Bendtner | 2.62 | Sinclair | 3.30 |
| Ba | 2.75 | Tchoyi | 3.30 |
| Morison | 2.80 | Dempsey | 3.30 |
| Klasnic | 2.80 | Lampard | 3.60 |
| Aguero | 2.87 | Walters | 3.60 |
| Yakubu | 2.87 | Valencia | 3.75 |
| Sturridge | 3.00 | Downing | 3.75 |
| Agbonlahor | 3.00 | Brunt | 3.75 |
Paddy continue to back Wayne Rooney to break the shackles and rediscover his goal threat. The United man is the strong favourite to find the net this weekend, with team-mate Danny Welbeck currently his nearest rival. Robin Van Persie ranks third and, rather surprisingly, shares his odds with Liverpool’s Luis Suarez. The inclusion of Craig Bellamy in Paddy’s top five offers Fantasy managers further food for thought – he and Welbeck are clearly new names to consider this weekend.
West Brom’s Shane Long, along with team-mate Peter Odemwingie are further mid-price considerations that are well backed by Paddy. Their odds are shorter than Tottenham’s Emmanuel Adebayor – again, perhaps a surprise given Spurs’ current attacking form.
Further down it’s again sobering for Sergio Aguero owners that the likes of Long and Norwich City’s Steve Morison are more favoured to score this weekend. Demba Ba’s odds are also surprisingly long given the support he’s had this week in terms of transfers in. He’ll go to Norwich with heavy Fantasy investment on his shoulders, as will Blackburn’s Yakubu – his odds of 2.87 look generous given that Rovers will surely fancy themselves to score, despite a possible improvement of the Sunderland defence under Martin O’Neill.
Nani is the strong favourite amongst the midfielders to notch – providing further evidence to support the switch from Van der Vaart to the United man. The Dutchman is still amongst Paddy’s favourites to find the net this weekend, with the Arsenal double act of Theo Walcott and Andrei Arshavin above him and the Liverpool trio of Dirk Kuyt, Maxi Rodriguez and Charlie Adam next in the odds list.
Again, Paddy appears to cast doubt over Tottenham’s ability to translate their form into goals at the Britannia and it’s surprising to see Gareth Bale out at 3.25 for an anytime goal. Bale has been the most transferred in player in the FPL so far this week – Paddy appear to feel that there are plenty of other midfield options more likely to return a goal in the gameweek.
Fantasy Football Scout Specials
Our Fantasy Flutter markets are already live over at Paddy Power. You can get a sneak preview of our selection of Scout Pick related bets right here. These include markets on Jose Enrique, Chris Eagles, Nani and Demba Ba. We’ll bring you more on these in our Flutter tomorrow evening.
Paddy’s Money Back Specials
Paddy have a host of refund offers on show for the weekend. They start at the Stadium of Light for Martin O’Neill’s first match in charge. If O’Neill witnesses four or more goals, Paddy will refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the match. Paddy are also paying back all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the Stoke vs Totttenham clash, if Peter Crouch nets against his old club.
Down at Stamford Bridge, Paddy are risking refunds if there’s a last gasp goal. If a goal is scored in the last five minutes of the Chelsea vs City clash they will again refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the match.
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If you’re new to this betting lark and new to Paddy Power then you can take up any of these odds and offers and get yourself a bonus. You can sign up via this site and get a free £20 when you register an account and bet a tenner.
Finally of course, we should state that all these offers are only available to those aged 18 and over and are subject to Paddy Power’s terms and conditions. Also, if you’re going to bet, always gamble responsibly.
