[sbu_large_image] The Knee Jerk
30 September 2013 3489 comments
Mark Mark
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Romelu Lukaku flexes his substantial Fantasy football muscles to wreck the Newcastle defence and leave us re-assessing our forward lines yet again. Meanwhile, the withdrawal of Hatem Ben Arfa and a transformed second-half showing from Newcastle has his owners hovering over the panic button.

The Game Changer

Lukaku simply ran riot in the first half with the Newcastle back four unable to cope with his pace and power. Having transformed and won the game at Upton Park from the bench, this evening, the Belgian dismantled the Magpies with a brace and an assist that put the game out of reach.

We shouldn’t be surprised by Lukaku’s impact. We saw last season that, when he is given pitch time, he can deliver, with 17 goals from just 20 league starts at West Brom. Jose Mourinho may feel that his game is not refined enough for the Chelsea squad but Lukaku has nonetheless proved to be hugely effective on the Premier League stage.

Fantasy managers now have to carefully consider their front lines. Lukaku at 7.6 and rising in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) will clearly represent outstanding value if he can replicate the strike rate shown at the Hawthorns. On tonight’s evidence, there’s every chance he can achieve that and more, putting further pressure on the three slots in our squad.

The Underused

It seems almost folly to discuss yet another option up front but we shouldn’t ignore Loic Remy’s late goal which left the Goodison nerves jangling. Three goals in three starts underline the Frenchman’s impact that, while less explosive than Lukaku’s at Everton, has been no less effective.

Available in the same FPL price bracket, Remy’s performance will likely be overlooked but, having been shifted to a central role in place of Papiss Cisse tonight, it’s clear that Remy will, quite literally, be central to their aspirations this season.

The Selection Poser

Hatem Ben Arfa’s withdrawal at half-time took everyone by surprise and yet, minutes later, his replacement Yohan Cabaye, scored from range to hand the Magpies an unlikely lifeline. Despite attempting to focus play through Ben Arfa in the first half, Alan Pardew took the decision to replace him with the more combative Cabaye for the second period and the change appeared to pep up the visitors as they came close to an unlikely comeback.

The reason behind the change is uncertain. Certainly Alan Pardew gave no indication of an injury in his post-match comments, leaving Ben Arfa’s owners frustrated at the curtailed pitch time and somewhat anxious that the mercurial winger may have fallen out of favour ahead of the Gameweek 7 trip to Cardiff. We await further noises from St James’ Park.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

3,489 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Lizard Lips
    13 years, 1 month ago

    RVP to Suarez seems crazy. United have 3 top fixtures coming up. If ever there was a time to stay calm it was now. That said RVP -0.1m and Suarez +0.3, incoming.

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    1. FPLFamily (Lee)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Stay calm and keep RVP!

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    2. Pepereina Pizza
      13 years, 1 month ago

      "RVP to Suarez seems crazy. United have 3 top fixtures coming up."
      lather
      rinse
      repeat until gw38

      recipe for last place

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      1. Lizard Lips
        13 years, 1 month ago

        What is? You think it's worth going for to get the 0.4m swing in?

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  2. Captain Shirokov
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Mig

    Baines - Vidic - Clyne - Turner

    Paulinho - Michu - Ozil

    Lukaku - Suarez(c) - Rooney

    Subs: Ravel, Barkley, Wilson.

    All set? Should I use my transfer anywhere? Thinking of saving it and then having two for the international break.

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    1. Coaly
      13 years, 1 month ago

      barkley or wilson > turner

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    2. Dr Dream
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Fantastic...save...Who would you buy ?

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      1. Captain Shirokov
        13 years, 1 month ago

        No idea.

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  3. Colonel Shoe 肝池
    13 years, 1 month ago

    right with all these cheapie mids i have too much money in the bank....... was saving a warchest for baines etc.....not so sure now

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    1. Whiskerz
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Take us all out for pizza.

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    2. Podge
      13 years, 1 month ago

      He was quite good though, every def is gonna blank roughly half the time. He has a better chance than any to make up for conceding with an assist or goal,

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  4. Tim Canterbury
    13 years, 1 month ago

    baps out

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    1. Sess!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      13 years, 1 month ago

      I remember when this sort of post used to be exciting.

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    2. ILOVEBAPS
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Yes please!

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  5. JayCee
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Rooney to Suarez, doubling up on Liverpool

    Yay or nay??

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    1. Scottys Army
      13 years, 1 month ago

      double up yes

      im doing it short term

      27 poinus from those 2 already

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    2. ccc
      13 years, 1 month ago

      nay. I think Rooney has the potential to flourish this season.

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      1. Scottys Army
        13 years, 1 month ago

        i have rooney and the pool duo

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      2. Torres76
        13 years, 1 month ago

        United have been pants so far

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      3. JayCee
        13 years, 1 month ago

        Even with united poor form so far?

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  6. ccc
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on Coleman? Time to sell? Clean sheets seem to be thin. Hold or sell?

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    1. Coaly
      13 years, 1 month ago

      im thinking of moving him on soon

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    2. Scottys Army
      13 years, 1 month ago

      hes quality was very attacking tonght

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    3. Podge
      13 years, 1 month ago

      If you expect more than 50% clean sheets you are going to be constantly disappointed

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    4. John Nerdelbaum
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Tis a bit worrying.

      If you can swap to Walker/Terry then I probably would

      I brought Baines in on WC - can't help it!

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      1. Scottys Army
        13 years, 1 month ago

        i got him at 5 mil so unfair to compare.

        so he isnt in their bracket

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        1. John Nerdelbaum
          13 years, 1 month ago

          Depends if you have him as your third big defender. With all this money slushing around from the cheap mids why couldn't you upgrade?

          He was much better than Baines tonight to be fair. Thought Baines was pretty poor.

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    5. Frodo Baggins
      13 years, 1 month ago

      did you not watch tonights game? Coleman was incredible , no way am i getting rid

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      1. Scottys Army
        13 years, 1 month ago

        + 1 people fail to see potential points

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        1. Barry Woj
          13 years, 1 month ago

          Yeah he was 2 bps of bonus points, with no clean sheet or assist

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  7. wendty
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Which of these options are better. I have A and am thinking of B. Should I go for it?:

    A. Giroud & Ben Arfa
    B. Suarez & Barkley

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    1. Coaly
      13 years, 1 month ago

      b

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    2. FPLFamily (Lee)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      13 years, 1 month ago

      No need to get rid of Giroud. Who are your other forwards?

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    3. JayCee
      13 years, 1 month ago

      B

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  8. FPLFamily (Lee)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Liking the look of Suarez and RVP up front over the next few, saving a few quid in the mid with Ramsey, Barkley, Brady combo.

    Anyone going with both?

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    1. PB-THE-VET
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Had rvp giroud suarez this week

      It was planned

      Thought it would do better tbh. Next week will be good 🙂

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  9. Captain Shirokov
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Get on with the autosubs, I want to see my 9 Barkley points 😈

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    1. Sess!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Spawn

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    2. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      13 years, 1 month ago

      I want to see my Brady pints 😈

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    3. The Machine
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Rooney 8 Oscar 2 here

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    4. Acquafresca
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Gimme my 1 Dawson point 😛

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      1. ccc
        13 years, 1 month ago

        😆 same here

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    5. DelboyFPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Terry 11 🙂

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  10. The Machine
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Rooney: 0 goals from open play, No creativity in that team

    Giroud vs Rooney not as simple as people think

    Giroud far more impressive so far

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    1. EAGLES (0 Chelsea players)
      13 years, 1 month ago

      precisely....Soldado getting close to Rooney too

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    2. Acquafresca
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Rooney is world class, Giroud is not. Simple.

      Yes Giroud will get chances, but not a clinical finisher like Rooney.

      United fixtures are a dream atm. Rooney will flourish.

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      1. The Machine
        13 years, 1 month ago

        Have you seen Rooney play this season?

        Hardly getting any chances, he won't get points for making sliding tackles in his own half

        And definitely won't score free kicks every week

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        1. Acquafresca
          13 years, 1 month ago

          With United's fixtures, he will score. Simple as that.

          Don't listen to me if you want, but I would not sell Rooney when his previous 3 scores are:

          9, 5, 8

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        2. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
          13 years, 1 month ago

          Everyone needs to stop saying 'this form wont continue'. If RVP had scored like Rooney or Bale scored like Ramsey everyone would say it would continue. Players start somewhere, they have to start somewhere, they don't just happen to be world class. This seasons more than ever shows that if someone is in form they stay in form, and will continue to.

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        3. QPR expects... glory!
          13 years, 1 month ago

          Why not? Yaya seems to and it's often his only shot of the game

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    3. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Partmree?

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      1. The Machine
        13 years, 1 month ago

        What 😕

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    4. nevertrustbony
      13 years, 1 month ago

      I also have rooney and giroud with the option of bringing suarez in. I'm just sticking with what i've got, Liverpool haven't scored many at home this season and palace's defence isn't awful, I can see the game being 1-0 maybe 2-0

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      1. The Machine
        13 years, 1 month ago

        You would still back him to do well + I will eventually want to get him anyway so don't think there is any point in waiting for him to be 11.2

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    5. tqrrfesk
      13 years, 1 month ago

      True that. I think RVP will probably steel the show from Rooney now that his back.

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  11. EAGLES (0 Chelsea players)
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Is Suarez's booking/douchebag proneness proportional to Sturridge's injury proneness?

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    1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Yes bit surely if one is ruled out its a swap for the other?

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  12. OptimusBlack
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Guys if i want to get Lukaku after his match v.s City what is his price after that ?

    GW 8

    Lambert > Lukaku

    7.5 + 0.5 M is enough ?

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    1. JayCee
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Yes

      A player can only rise 0.3 in one GW

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      1. OptimusBlack
        13 years, 1 month ago

        Thanx mate Would do it

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    2. EAGLES (0 Chelsea players)
      13 years, 1 month ago

      sidenote: beware Lukaku could get injured playing for Belgium, as I imagine he'll be frist choice since Benteke is out

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      1. EAGLES (0 Chelsea players)
        13 years, 1 month ago

        *first

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      2. OptimusBlack
        13 years, 1 month ago

        Ilove Gambling sure Geeting him 😀

        Can't wait after City Match 🙂

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  13. Wings Fan
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Just bit the bullet and did Ben Arfa > Ramsey for a -4

    I suddenly feel a lot happier with my team

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    1. Whiskerz
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Until this time next week.

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    2. Venom Snake
      13 years, 1 month ago

      If I didn't have 3 arsenal already I would have made the same trade

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  14. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Guys, have we calmed down?

    Migs/Lewis

    Coleman Wilson Dawson Chico Clyne

    Michu Oscar Ozil Barkley RMo

    Giroud Rooney Suarez

    0.1m ITB

    Correct decision = Keep team like this for next week, save FT

    Unless injuries occur -> Gir/Roo to Lukaku GW8?

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    1. chunk
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Pretty much same team as mine and I'm saving to use 2FTs on int break

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    2. Barry Woj
      13 years, 1 month ago

      V. similar to me, saving FT. Relax and forget about price changes!

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  15. Cheeseoid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    13 years, 1 month ago

    It amazes me how many people who use this still don't understand how to find out about price rises. Maybe there should be a guide on here?

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    1. EAGLES (0 Chelsea players)
      13 years, 1 month ago

      make one and surely you'll get sticky lol

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      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        13 years, 1 month ago

        The last time I got stcky on my laptop my wife didn't approve

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        1. EAGLES (0 Chelsea players)
          13 years, 1 month ago

          lol listen to the wife then

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    2. Namtab Nomolos
      13 years, 1 month ago

      I'm more amazed at the number of people who've never clicked the fixtures on FPL to see the stats

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      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        13 years, 1 month ago

        Thats true I may do a FAQ section sometime when I can be bothered

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  16. Torres76
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Your siggestions for the Best front 3?

    I am going with Suarez, Sturridge and Giroud.

    Can't see anyway of squeezing in Rooney or Lukaku. Liverpool and arsenal fixtures are just too good!!!

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    1. Podge
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Suarez Rooney Lukaku/Remy for me

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  17. Acquafresca
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Baps out.

    Lukaku 3
    Barkley, Remy, Debuchy 2

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    1. The Machine
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Debuchy wtf

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  18. Liastro ⭐️
    13 years, 1 month ago

    How can I get Suarez into a frontline on Rooney - Sturridge - Giroud?

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    1. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Sell Rooney?

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    2. Acquafresca
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Giroud > Suarez.

      Do you have Arsenal attacking cover though?

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    3. GREENDREAMS11
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Had the same dilemma, dropped giroud for him.

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    4. Scottys Army
      13 years, 1 month ago

      sell donkey

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    5. MJ6987
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Rooney > Suarez

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  19. Scottys Army
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Rooney scoring well despite united being crap.

    Good sign when they improve.

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  20. David silva
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Lost on last page.

    Migs (Boruc)
    Fonte, Zab, Ferdinand (Coleman, Chester)
    HBA, Brady, Ozil, Michu (JWP)
    Giroud, Soldado, Rooney
    0 in bank

    A) Ferdinand and Soldado to Davies and Sturridge
    B) Fedinand and Soldado to Burner and Suarez
    C) Zabaleta and Soldado to Williams and Suarez
    D) HBA to Siggy

    A B and C involve taking a 4 point hit

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    1. Milan 0
      13 years, 1 month ago

      C but can you not get davies??

      I think both will score well tbh, Williams seems to get good baps but Davies does have some good attacking potential which has proved fruitful already this season.

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  21. tqrrfesk
    13 years, 1 month ago

    I totally lost my cool on the transfer market today. Is this team worth it for my 8 point hit?

    Begovic (ful)
    Vidic (sun) Terry (nor) Vertongen (WHM)
    Michu(sot) Ramsey (wba) Ozil(wba) Amalfitano (ARS)
    Suarez(CRY) Lukaku (mci) Giroud (wba)

    Did HBA -> Amalfitano
    Aluko -> Lukaku
    Rooney -> Suarez

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    1. Coaly
      13 years, 1 month ago

      you had aluko hahahaha

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      1. tqrrfesk
        13 years, 1 month ago

        Only for one week on the bench in a 4-4-2 for Benteke so I could fit in Ozil while I was anticipating my 3rd striker.

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  22. Coaly
    13 years, 1 month ago

    i've already done davis > boruc and soldado > sturridge,

    worth benteke > lukaku for -8?

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    1. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Probably but that transfer alone is only costing you 4 remember

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    2. JayCee
      13 years, 1 month ago

      If you can field 11 than no

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    3. Wings Fan
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Nah. Everton away to Man City, Benteke probably back after internationals

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  23. HVT
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Is Mira / Hba injured ?

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    1. Acquafresca
      13 years, 1 month ago

      No. But HBA in danger of being dropped next game, imo.

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      1. THE Wild Rover
        13 years, 1 month ago

        Mirallas was injured

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        1. Acquafresca
          13 years, 1 month ago

          I stand corrected 🙂

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  24. tomc
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Rate My Team: Useful or nonsense?

    Before the start of this season, I was quite excited by the RMT "Under the Hood" movies (link: http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2013/08/03/rate-my-team-under-the-hood-preview-movie/). It looked like a well-thought-out statistical model using betting odds and proper statistical software ("R"), as well as a bit of human tinkering. So I decided to give it a try, suppressing gut feelings, jerky knees and band-wagons. So far it doesn't seem to be working.

    So, six gameweeks in I've got a bit of distance to make up. Should I hold my faith in the statistics, hoping that regression will eventually make up for a short run of unpredictable results, or should I dump my new-found statistical pundit and revert to the good old "gut and knees" method.

    I appreciate the amount of work Chris, Mark and others have put into RMT, but are there any ways we can identify it's short-comings and improve it as a predictive tool? One thing I miss is a "last updated" datum to advise that the numbers may be slightly stale, also nice to have would be info of the "human tinkerings" that have been performed (chance of playing, I believe). Another thing I've noticed is that it's points forecast for the next 6 gameweeks generally tends to have many forwards at the top of the list (currently GW7-GW12 ranked by points is RVP, Giroud, Suarez, Rooney, Soldado, Sturridge). Does the model have an excess bias for forwards getting points?

    Sorry for the rant, comments would be appreciated.

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    1. Acquafresca
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Comments.

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    2. EAGLES (0 Chelsea players)
      13 years, 1 month ago

      unless RMT runs off of the God sequence algorithm, it won't be spot on all the time. I do find it helpful in helping me choose a captain

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      1. tomc
        13 years, 1 month ago

        Unless that happens to be Baines this GW 🙂

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    3. Barry Woj
      13 years, 1 month ago

      A last updated would be a very good feature.

      Forwards tend to score the most points.

      You have to think of it like playing the percentages in poker or indeed a football match. If you keep making the statistically right decision, over the course of a lot of poker hands (or a season) you will eventually come out well with the variance reducing. But if you don't play a lot of hands (or matches) the variance will be high and you'll be more susceptible to low/high scores.

      I tend to use it for looking at a period of fixtures seeing how much a transfer or two would improve my team over that period. All the scores are averages as well, meaning there will be higher and lower scores around it. I imagine if you followed it for a whole season you would on the whole do well. But it won't replace knowledge from press conferences and watching games (e.g. OOP).

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  25. Kieranduru
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Is Sigurdsson nailed on?

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  26. Tim Canterbury
    13 years, 1 month ago

    oh mirallas is injured as well final nail in the coffin

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  27. THE Wild Rover
    13 years, 1 month ago

    I'm glad Mirallas turned out to be injured rather than just taken off. I think I will stick. I was benching next week anyway so plenty of time to recover,. 🙂

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  28. El Berbossa - \\\"El b…
    13 years, 1 month ago

    43 after BPS, anyone worse then that?

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    1. Tim Canterbury
      13 years, 1 month ago

      76 once auto subs come on

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    2. Acquafresca
      13 years, 1 month ago

      19(-4) last week. Chin up 😀

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  29. Messi & fabregas
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Lads who to bench for this week?

    Ramsey / Sigurdsson / Michu / Özil / Moses
    Sturridge / Rooney / Giroud

    thanks

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    1. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Moses

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    2. timski8000
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Ramsey all day long.

      No way he can keep converting at the current ratios.

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      1. davidtbo
        13 years, 1 month ago

        i benched ramsey this gw... never again!

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      2. PB-THE-VET
        13 years, 1 month ago

        Heard this before 😀

        But ur right . . . . I think . . . . Gulp

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    3. PB-THE-VET
      13 years, 1 month ago

      Roomey

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  30. Scottys Army
    13 years, 1 month ago

    Rooney still bagging the points despite united losing = great potential when they improve

    Giroud starting to struggle despite arsenal winning

    VERDICT

    Nate is talking crap

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    1. PB-THE-VET
      13 years, 1 month ago

      U get rooney so

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