We roll out the next instalment of our weekly article for Members tonight, offering an in-depth statistical analysis of the main captaincy contenders for the set of fixtures ahead. With Luis Suarez topping the Captain Poll, we assess the Everton defence ahead of the Anfield Merseyside derby. We also dig deep into the data of Eden Hazard and Samuel Eto’o ahead of the home game against West Ham, whilst Sergio Aguero and Wayne Rooney’s prospects are also discussed, with the latter now back in full training ahead of Cardiff’s visit on Tuesday evening:
- Expensive defenders: Worth the hassle?
Big defenders, fire and forget?
Some defensive stats for those thinking of going three big defenders and two bench fodder defenders.
Chelsea 6 clean sheets
2 have been at home and 4 away
Man City 8 clean sheets
6 have been at home and only 2 away
Arsenal 10 clean sheets
7 have been at home and only 3 away
Tottenham 9 clean sheets
4 have been at home and 5 away*
(Under AVB they had 5 away clean sheet and just 2 home with this horror home run doing the most to cost him his job. Spurs have not kept an away clean sheet since gw10)
Everton 9 clean sheets
5 have been at home and 4 away (Everton 1 clean sheet in the last 8 in epl)
I think this is why big defenders are not worth their money as apart from Chelsea even the big teams are not keeping cs away from home. This means you need to rotate even the big defenders to get the best out of them (Everton being the exception this year if you can class them as a big team?).
So buyers beware of the big defender if you intend to play them each gw.
Any thoughts on whether it might be worth rotating big defenders or should we neglect all big defenders and go for 5 mid priced ones that we can rotate?Open ControlsI am definitely championing the fact that big defenders are a waste of money. 5 well rotating budget mids gives you an absolute beast of a front seven.
Hull - Palace - Newcastle - West Ham - Southampton all have defenders 4.5 and under (if you take a punt on Clyne) and rotate wonderfully. They also free up a tonne of money to upgrade those mids or go for the SAS/SAR routeOpen ControlsShaw or a fully fit Winston Reid?
Open ControlsThis is pretty much what I did in the first half of the season. The question is, can the saved money actually be spent better elsewhere? I think crucially the mids have generally not been worth spending money on, making SAS/SAR possible even with good defenders.
Open ControlsWith the money I've saved using that back 5 I have a front 7 of;
Mata - Cazorla - Hazard - Eriksen
Suarez - Aguero - Rooney
I'd say that there's points to be made with that lotOpen ControlsIt looks good on paper, but given how this season has gone we haven't had a premium mid do a Bale, and there are cheaper midfield options that aren't too far behind in points.
For example, I'm actually quite comfortable going with some midpriced mids that I've really wanted to get, instead of the most expensive options. I'm also rotating two of them for better fixtures.
Hazard Mata Lallana AJ/Noone
Suarez Aguero BonyOpen Controls
It is a pity imo as I think the premium defenders should be premium for a reason but I am coming around to the reasoning that you might be right PCY.
I really thought the new bonus system would reward the top defenses with bonus points when they got cs but it has not really happened mainly due to the amount of goals the big teams score leading to all the bonus points going to the attacking players.
It seems the medium to small clubs defender who plays in a team that are scraping 1-0 and 0-0's are the ones hoovering up all the bonus. The system is terrible imo for this reason and I hope the fix it before next season starts. We need to have big expensive defenders that can score as well as midfielders (points per million) to have variety in this game imoOpen Controls
Yeah I was definitely in the budget defender camp in the first half of the season. Got much more out of rotations. Slightly revising that now based on what I see as a marked improvement in Chelsea's defending, the machine seems to have swung into motion. Also the Kolarov attacking threat is fairly irresistible, hoping it turns out like Coleman Mk II.
The burning question is whether playing one big defender all the time outscores rotating pairs.Open Controlsi think big defenders are so reliable for scores of >6 this season with the bonus point tweak, and as a result really underrated value wise. just find it so much easier to get a score of 8 from a defender (e.g a koscielny, about a 5.5mil def) than any midfielder below 9mil. the more the merrier in my mind, what you 'over-spend' (in historical terms, un-written rules imprinted in our brains due to the past patterns) in defence you simply fund with savings made in the most undernourished of areas bonus wise, the midfield
Open Controlsi bench big defenders regularly btw.
benching a 6mil midfielder doesnt seem a big deal, so i don't really think anything of benching a 6mil defender eitherOpen ControlsYep, and those defenders mopping up the bonus are those playing for teams that have been grinding out the wins of late (Arsenal and Chelsea). They don't score so many that the bonus is washed out. Also there's the attacking threat aspect that needs to be factored into the price; big defenders often have some extra attacking threat, like Terry, Mertesacker, Evra, Kolarov etc.
Open Controlsthere's nothing more annoying than not owning a player who has an assist in a clean sheet this season as it's more often than not a 12 pointer, a pretty big deal.
that's the dilemma though, the best defenders for baps are these fullback assisters, baines the possible exception as he boosts his bps so uniquely for a full back.
owning vertonghen was a weird experience, he moved to left back and i couldn't work out if it was good of bad, luckily he got a pretty fortunate assist at left back so got one of those 12 pointers, overall though i think i much prefer him at cb, he'll clean up the baps thereOpen Controls*best defenders for baps are NOT these full back assisters
Open ControlsYeah I'm not sure what to make of the which of CBs and fullbacks are better for bonus. Confusingly if you sort all defenders by BPS, CBs dominate the top 10 (8/10) but not really if you sort by bonus (6/10). Maybe because CBs get more consistent BPS, but fullbacks grab big bonus on the occasions they assist/score.
Open Controls*what to make of which
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bullshit. baines for example gets also goals + bonus and as you say almost half of the clean sheets away. merte for example you get for the bonus and the number of clean sheets it doesn't matter if they are mostly @home. terry = goals, bonus, clean sheets.
you can look at the mid priced defs and realize they don't get any more percentage of their clean sheets @home.Open Controls
The Times say Rooney has a slim chance of returning against Cardiff. Thought Mata would start before the Rooney news earlier but more confident now. He's had two training sessions now, don't see a risk with Moyes starting him from the beginning. Could be wrong, but least we'll get team news beforehand anyway
Open ControlsDear Cabaye,
Thanks for the .2 price rise this GW 😉Open ControlsDOUBLE TROUBLE
So, we have our first major DGW curve ball thrown at us.
GW 28: ManU/Mcity/Sun/Wba all have blanks
GW 28: Possible blanks due…to be confirmed
GW 31: Double game weeks for Man U & Man City
I've read some posts on here stating that you need to own 3 players each of Man City & Man United at all costs to be successful. 🙄
Let's see...
Last year I owned Kompany for a City DGW only to see him get 2 pts in the one fixture and not even on the bench the second. I cried my eyes out. Like a girl.
The year before I was lucky enough to own Essou Ekotto for a goal, CS and bonus for a 15pt haul
in a spurs DGW. Granville cried. Like a girl.
Instead of just filling up your team with a many as possible "DGW bodies" I suggest you concentrate on quality rather then quantity. The Kun's/Mata's/Silva's/Rooney/Rvp are priority number 1.
I've seen defenders like Evans & Kolarov mentioned. Beware of the risk attached to those players.
A Norwich(SUN) or Hull(WBA) defender will probably outscore them in gw 31.
Save a trade and do a 3 transfer, -4 for the DGW is my advice.
Oh, and pick the right captain!
GOOD LUCKOpen ControlsGW29*
Those with their WC should do well in this period.Open ControlsYeah, thanks.
Green me.
😉Open Controls
Additional advice
Evans and Adnans make up value offerings which isn't a bad option at all.Open ControlsI'm pretty sure BAE got 2 CSs that week. I had Walker 😡
Open ControlsThanks mate. Looks good
Open ControlsLet people get 6 Manchester players in 😀
Open ControlsEvans is not a bad pick considering Utd's next 5 fixtures, cardiff,stoke,ful,ars,cpl.
Open ControlsNo shit sherlock 😉
Kun + Yaya/Silva
Mata/ RooneyOpen ControlsLooks good.
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Yeah, and maybe Evans. At a push.
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I see no Baines love amongst wildcarders.
Open Controlsnext 3 fixtures are pretty grim, even without the defence injuries around him
Open ControlsThey'll get him after he gets a big score, Judy before the succession of low scores.
Open ControlsJudy ?
- she was friendly with Punch(eon) wasn't she .Open Controls
any slim chance that Cabaye plays one last game...?
Open ControlsIn France it seems.
Open ControlsWe'll know before deadline. i doubt it but
Open ControlsNon, c'est fini.
Open ControlsNo he's getting a medical tomorrow last I heard
Open ControlsNot a chance http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/25917101
"Cabaye, who has scored 17 goals in 79 appearances for the Magpies, will fly to Paris for a medical on Tuesday and will not play a part in Newcastle's Premier League game with Norwich."Open Controls
Is it silly to get Terry at 6.6, when Azpi's 5.3 less even though his game time is slightly less assured?
Open ControlsIf you have no other use for the extra cash I'd get Terry, much more attacking threat and a BP magnet
Open ControlsIvanovic at 6.0 looks a good buy.
Open ControlsYes. You should have Cahill. 😉
Open ControlsYes IMO , you saw Coles tweet even he's resigned to the bench , granted Terry has a goal threat and JM has reigned in his left/right back but @ 5,3 your guaranteed a percentage cs.
Open ControlsI saw it. Someone said he was great and cole said "don't get used to it"
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I think Azpil is a great shout, he'll keep getting picked while Chelsea are performing well at the back. He does get forward more than his stats suggest and importantly that 1.3 can be used enormously elsewhere.
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so what time are team sheets out?
Open Controls30-45 min before deadline.
Open ControlsSuicide hour.
Demi will have his hands full tonight.Open Controls
people debating a -4 to ship Cabaye while I sit here and debate a 2nd -4 to ship him after a -4 to bring him in 9 days ago 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
Open Controls😆 your suffering actually brings me comfort
Open Controls😆 That's a consolation knowing someone out there is having a tougher time than me. Although there hasn't been any concrete to suggest Cabaye will not start, I would advise waiting for the announcement of the teamsheets before you make that move.
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If Cabaye is gone, Marv could be a good 5th mid. thoughts anyone?
Open ControlsGameweek 23 Preview & Tips:
http://elitefpl.blogspot.ca/2014/01/gameweek-23-preview-tips.html
Hope it helps.
Will be interesting if Mata racks up the points or if Rooney + RVP benefit more FPL-wise with Mata in the team over the next 4-5 weeks.Open Controlsinteresting to see*
Open ControlsColeman > Ivanovic 😎
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Thanks very good read
Open ControlsSurprised no Hazard in that list. Surely he should pip Sturridge
Open ControlsInconsistent. never know when he'll show up.
Not captaincy material IMO.Open Controls
At least we'll see if Cabaye starts tomorrow. If he's benched then I'm starting my 5th mid, Januzaj.
Open Controlshe'll hardly start or even be in the squad with any sort of deal in place or about to be signed
Open ControlsHe's travelled though, right? With £ 25m at stake then I'd agree, it would be madness to risk him.
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I actually hoped Cabaye would go to Ars/ManUtd. Too bad he's leaving PL
Open ControlsBut tbh, easier now to include Mata without losing 0.6 value on him.
Open ControlsYa I always expect a 30yard strike when he gets the ball outside the box fun to watch.
Open ControlsYessir
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Just to be sure (my WC team depends on it).........CABAYE won't drop tonight, will he?
Open Controlsno chance
Open ControlsYes, 100%. It's a certainty.
Open ControlsRighteo.
Open ControlsHe's on +23% at the moment though, needs to go down 123% in a couple of hours!
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Cabaye getting sold, gouffran injured. Is it Ben arfa time?
Open ControlsEither of these worth a 4 pointer?
A) Ozil & Giroud -> Ramsey & Rooney
B) Ozil & Giroud -> Ki & RVP(c)
Szczesny
Terry, Kolarov, Whittaker
Hazard, Silva, Ozil, Puncheon
Aguero, Suarez, Giroud
Davis, Clyne, Kim, Chester
Bank 0.0m, 1 freebieOpen ControlsYou certain you're ready to lose Giru + Ozil before Palace?
Open ControlsNot certain, but neither look capable of a big haul at the moment. Ozil seems afraid to shoot and Giroud needs about 5 chances to score.
SOT and CPL aren't getting hammered either. The mood at OT after the Mata signing and R&R being back could be fireworks. Huge differential also.Open Controls
Rooney is out from memory.
Open ControlsNope.
Felli/Rvp/Rooney all trained.Open Controls
no, save.
Open ControlsI wouldn't take a hit for either right now. Long run one out of RVP/Rooney/Mata would probably be wise.
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Ditch Suarez for Sturridge to free up funds a crazy / desperate move (your pick)?
Open ControlsReally? It just occured to me, kind of scared of Suarez' occasional massive points hauls. With everybody captaining him it seems like you'd get killed going without him...
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Morning Dzzz,
Decided to take the day off from work to run some errands AND enjoy building my WC team!! 😀
The addiction:)
Out of curiosity, where you guys from and what do you guys do?Open Controlshey guys
really urgently need a WC team
help and shout out some players
cheers!Open Controlslol
Open Controls1) remove all players.
2) click on auto-complete.Open Controls- Open Controls
Cattermole, Mikel, Tiote, Noccerino...all have decent fixtures.
Then there are usual suspects- Suarez Aguero Rvp Rooney...Adebayor Bony....Hazard Mata Yaya...Ramsey Mirallas Eriksen....Noone Barkley....Baines Coleman Evra Kolarov Mertesacket Cahill....Good luck!Open Controls
WC done. This is me then barring any shockers in the lineups. 🙂
Mannone,Adrian
Baines,Koscielny,Azpilicueta,Yoshida,Bruce
Hazard,Mata,Silva,Ramsey,Noone
Suarez,Aguero,BonyOpen ControlsVery, very similar to my WC team..
Open ControlsLet me see it then. 🙂
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Thanks BL.
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Ya lovely team. Baines at that price for his fixtures raises a few questions but I suppose it's not the CS your going for..
Open ControlsBaines would be a great differential in my MLs and I do have ground to catch up.
Open Controls
Ok, cheeky wildcard team lined up:
Mannone, Marshall
Kos, Azpi, Kolarov, Clyne, Ward
Hazard, Cazorla, Eriksen, Johnson, Mutch
Suarez, Aguero, Sturridge
B-e-a-utiful. Only question marks over Azpi, Clyne, Mutch and Marshall tbh.
Cabaye out made my midfield decision for me. Cazorla is earmarked for a cheeky switch to Mata in 2 weeks time.
You don't have to give me advice, just admire it.Open ControlsJust got peer pressured into captaining Suarez.
Thanks alot guys.Open ControlsSup geezers
What's the latest on Silva and Coleman? Will they start?Open ControlsSilva- Yes
Coleman- NoOpen ControlsColeman's been ruled out by a Martinez quote in the Liverpool echo, apparently. I think City press conference tomorrow.
I am tempted to get rid of Coleman...Open ControlsConsidering Silva > Mata
Thoughts?Open ControlsIf Mata starts, I'd say go for it, live a little 😉
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If you bought Coleman for less than 6, I really wouldn't. Best attacking defender. Look at the points page if you need convincing.
Open ControlsI know but keeping an injured player on my WC is a bit silly, innit geezer? I guess I can bench for the next two but that puts pressure on my team already and who knows if he will be out for longer?
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People having a going at me for taking a -16.
This is my justification.
My Trades>
Negredo>Aguero (Must do) - FT
Ozil>Yaya (Cant ignore him any longer) – Probably could have avoided this trade but could pay off and i didn’t get a price drop)
Lallana>Ramsey (Wilshire injured and Lallana likely to do nothing vs strongest defence in league) – Possibly could have avoided this trade
Coleman>Kolarov (Coleman Injured, Parr and Chester also injured so i had no replacement)
Silva>Mata (Vs Cardiff, ill take the punt and take the price rises, question marks over Silva fitness too, who is made form glass)
So basically -8 was a must do. And to make up for another -8 i have Mata vs Cardiff and Ramsey vs Soton who have been leaky as of late.Open Controls🙂 my last -16 paid off.
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Crazy man. Would have held Lallana at least. And Yaya could have waited too.
Open ControlsLallana is 2 points guaranteed. But Ramsey is a nice diff this week.
Yaya probably could have waited. Agree with you there. But Tottenham vs Man city is high scoring.
As soon as i heard news of Silva's hamstring i immediately shipped him out.Open Controls
Only -4 is a must. Negredo and Coleman out.
Open ControlsAs soon as silva and hamstring are mentioned int he same sentence its a recipe for disaster.
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lol
Open Controls:S
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Why am I looking at Cardiff midfielders? Noone likes them Mutch? 😕 😉
Open ControlsShawly not
Open Controlsquit medeling with your team
Open ControlsGo directly to bed, do not pass go and do not collect £200.
Open ControlsI have just been paid a grand by PunSponsor ... 😉
Open Controls
You have a dry Whitt Doos, don't Medel too much because on a Daehli basis they will be nothing but a pain in the Bellamy.
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Whom to captain this week? Rooney (CAR) or Cabaye (nor)?
Open ControlsMexicano Milanista's post stuck on the bottom of the page... let's help him out.
On holiday at the moment and it seems my team has multiple problem so could do with some help.
Boruc
Kolarov, Coleman, Parr
Silva. Ozil, Hazard, Ki
Aguero, Suarez(c), Sturridge
Davis, Gibbs, Noone, Hudson
Coleman, Parr and Silva are all doubtful, is there any expectation as to whether they will play or not? Also, has Gibbs lost his place? I see he started the cup game with Jenkinson which is worrying.
No money in the bank and I would like to save free transfer to shift Ozil and Ki to two 7-7.5m players next week.Open ControlsMonreal looks to have won the starting birth at LB... Coleman is certainly out and may be out the weekend. Personally I'm shipping him for Ivanovic. There's a good read stickied on Coleman.
If you were to save, you'd probably be with 1-2 defenders this week, so it's risky if both Parr and Gibbs don't start.Open ControlsI'm afraid there's nothing we can do for him I'd say 4 of his defenders are out of this week. Pronouncing Milanista's defence time of death as 06:54am.
Open Controls🙄 Worst case scenario he transfers out a defender and plays with 10 this week...
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Defence is a big worry - potential for no starters.
Open ControlsWhy not do Coleman > Tomkins, at least the short terms fixtures should offer you a chance to get some points back?
Open ControlsCheck team sheets for Gibbs - swap if not starting for Vlaar.
Free's up cash for next week.Open ControlsNot too sure about West Ham unless Reid is back but yeah, I definitely need to make a defensive transfer.
Open ControlsSWA avl NOR SOT eve HUL - 5 potential clean sheets there...
Open ControlsThe fixtures definitely appeal, problem is the defence has to be solid for the fixtures to pay dividends and it hasn't been for a while. If the injuries are easing (which I think they are) then it might be worth it but Reid is important to them.
Open ControlsMan City have conceeded 4 goals in their last 4 games but people love a citizen in their back line. I think West Ham'll turn a corner now the right players are coming back.Also you have to look at teams they're playing. SWA NOR HUL can't buy a goal right now, avl have been flakey and SOT hardly convince away from home.
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So basically Kolarov is my most assured starter in defence...
Open ControlsAnd he played 90mins in the FA cup. I'd head back to the beach, order some nachos and/or a burrito and forget about the whole mess
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The only week you need Ozil is next. Give him 2 more games. Silva will play.
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Just about to pull the trigger.
Yonas > Juan -4
GTG?Open ControlsCan you be sure Mata will start?
Open ControlsI did it! Come to the dark side (and stop hating on the grav 🙂 )
THanks for reply earlier.Open ControlsYour grav is gold. Don't worry 'bout the haterz.
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I would say so.
Its hard to say know how he will do in MUN on a first game, but you have to think they are going to start him and it would be lovely to see him go FPL wild...
Hesitate much longer and you might miss the price rise.
I would like him but am out of FTs and so will wait and see how he goes [would have to drop Ozil or Hazard to get him in as well]Open ControlsI agree and thanks for the reply mate.
He will play but whether he starts is up in the air. I want him long term anyway and see this as a good opportunity to grab him.Open ControlsYeah - I think he is going to want to show Jose what he can do.
He might not start as bringing him on at 60 would get a nice rise out of the crowd, but he still might get a load of points. I would love for him to do really well at MUN - I am not particularly a MUN fan, but I do love watching great players do their thing.
My pleasure to reply - you generally do for me, these things are appreciated!Open Controls
Ya sure the odd juan or two hits are grand
Open ControlsI think we need to remember that Cabaye was really producing for us that had him for a while. We need someone else that we're pretty sure will come in and get us the points. Mata, I think so. Eriksen, as much as I like his style, I am not sure over this run of fixtures for Spurs.
Open ControlsThis could feel like one of the best hits you take all season. I just did Mata for a hit.
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Can anyone give me any suggestions this week please?
Marshall Speroni
Coleman Koscielny Clyne Chico Gabbidon
Ozil Silva Januzaj Sterling Cabaye
Aguero Suarez Adebayor
1.5m in the bankOpen ControlsUrrrgh get rid of Cabaye for Ramsey or Eriksen?
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