[sbu_large_image] Preamble
13 September 2014 2753 comments
Mark Mark
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In case you missed it (and, doubtless, the intention is that you do), the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) have appeared to have tweaked the algorithm that governs their player prices and, as a result, slowed the increases of player values. Where last season a strong bandwagon would soar, sometimes adding 0.3 to a player’s price in a week, now we’re seeing far steadier rises. While most of the three million who play FPL will be oblivious to this, many amongst the Fantasy Football Scout community are very aware of the change; some are not particularly enamoured by it.

I have to admit, I’m slightly biased on the matter. I was badly stung by player values last season. I missed several key bandwagons and watched those players – Aaron Ramsey and Yaya Toure – accelerate away from my budget, making it even more difficult for me to admit my error and bring them in after big points hauls.

Even before last season, though, I’ve always felt that the FPL market was too volatile, that players soared and dropped in price too quickly. I hear the arguments that this new landscape makes things easier for the “mainstream” and “casual” player but I’m struggling to see how this would persuade the FPL to shift back to a more changeable market. It may even have been the intention.

The Premier League want to attract and, more importantly, retain players. They’ve developed a game that has captured our imagination as seasoned Fantasy managers but they may have identified rising player prices as a factor that perturbs the more casual player. The Premier League don’t want to explain and make the price changes transparent – keeping them under wraps allows them to tinker during the season. Instead, they appear to have opted to curb their influence.

The calming of the price rises does remove some of the “advantage” (Tom Fenley won last season’s FPL title without monitoring them) gained by those who studied third-party tools and plotted the transfer strategies accordingly. However, equally, it also reduces the frustration we face when a bandwagon faces a term of absence.

Daniel Sturridge provides a timely example: he could be out for three weeks or more and yet his owners will have little qualms about selling him on because his price has not increased markedly, as a result there’s little or no concern on funds lost or the inability to fetch him back once he’s fit. In previous seasons, I’ve always felt we can be punished for getting in early on key players, watching them rise and then face the conundrum of losing funds when they pick up injuries or bans. That issue is exacerbated by the rapid rise in price in form players; based on the current trends, that should now be reduced.

This undoubtedly tweaks the mechanics of the game. If I miss out on a major bandwagon, I can jump on board a week later, leaving it until the following Friday and pay just 0.1 more or even the same price as those who beat me to the punch. Last season, in that scenario, I might have felt pushed into spending points or making my transfer early in the following week or risk paying 0.2 or 0.3 more.

The rewards for getting the right player at the right time aren’t reduced – those who make the right call, still get the points. However, the penalties for missing out have diminished. It’s not that the hardcore, hands-on manager is being punished, more that the casual manager can now relax, dip into the game every Friday and not get the impression that they are at a disadvantage.

The “hardcore” manager can object to this change but, realistically, we can’t expect the move to be reversed if it’s seen to broaden the appeal of the game. We just have to accept it and play what’s in front of us, relying on our ability swoop for big hauls and leave others chasing points. We also have to remember that the FPL have kept the system behind the player prices to themselves for this very reason – they reserved the right to change the way it worked and tweak the balance – it’s not in the rules so we have no guarantees.

On another note, I find it interesting that there’s a section of Fantasy managers that are missing this aspect of the FPL and the task of tracking market forces. Fantasy games often baulk at the idea of using stat-driven scoring matrix for fear of adding too much complexity. And yet, from the reaction to this recent change, a good deal of us enjoy the process of monitoring and playing a mechanic that is unexplained and revealed only by the use of third-party tools. We can’t deny that the art of player the FPL market was and still is a dark art – a hardcore pursuit. Seemingly, however, it’s something we’ll be left hankering for.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

2,753 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Louis
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Sterling or Costa captain?

    1. Bootsy: Snoddy's Reven…
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Raheem the dream

    2. Epic Fail
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Costa

    3. WhatTheDuck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Both in form & fixture but Costa a doubt. I go with the kid.

    4. NATSTER
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Raheem

    5. pureklaas
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Costa, Sterling to be benched

      1. Louis
        12 years, 1 month ago

        How do you know he will be benched?

  2. Pinoche
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Aguerooooooo

    1. Breadbin
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Unlucky attempt at first post...

  3. FISSH
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Mirallas, Welbeck, falcao

    Or

    Di Maria, Naismith, Balotelli

    1. Tomlette Greggs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      1

    2. Davido989
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Mirallas, Adebayor, Balotelli.

    3. Demelbrush
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      2

  4. SirStevieG
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Chadli, Larsson, Henderson or Puncheon?

    1. Tomlette Greggs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Chadli

    2. EmreCan Hustle
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Punch.

  5. drughi
    12 years, 1 month ago

    balotelli, rooney or sterling as captain ?

    1. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Balo

    2. EmreCan Hustle
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Balotelli.

    3. Lawrø
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Balotelli

    4. drughi
      12 years, 1 month ago

      thanks, red card incoming 🙂

  6. Demelbrush
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Moore is the best leicester defender to get, yeah?

    1. BantamPhil
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Yes

    2. Ash_195
      12 years, 1 month ago

      yes.....i got him 🙂

    3. Hitman
      12 years, 1 month ago

      No just cheapest

  7. BantamPhil
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Would you start PvA or Moore over Kelly?

  8. Gunner77-
    12 years, 1 month ago

    If I captain Costa, should I VC Hazard?

    1. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
      12 years, 1 month ago

      VC a Poll attacker if you have one.

      1. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Pool*

    2. BantamPhil
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Doesn't really matter, I'm sure Costa will make an appearance

  9. Ash_195
    12 years, 1 month ago

    janmaat to lovren???

    i am not convinced with janmaat

    1. Louis
      12 years, 1 month ago

      No

  10. OptimusBlack
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Would sell A palyers to get B Players ?

    A- Terry / PVA / Caulker - Mareny - Rooney / Dzeko
    B- Ivano / Lovren / Clyine - Zaha - Balo / Naismith

    I mean active my WC to get B players ??

    1. Ash_195
      12 years, 1 month ago

      yes

  11. Make United Great Again
    12 years, 1 month ago

    HAZARRRRRRDDDDDDDD

  12. thomthom
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Ramsey -> Siggy (FT)?

    1. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
      12 years, 1 month ago

      No.

    2. EmreCan Hustle
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Next week imo.

    3. WhatTheDuck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      no

    4. thomthom
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks for the replies

  13. Beavis
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Somebody pick for me please!!

    A: Zaha (4th mid), Rooney/Falcao
    B: ADM + Welbz

    1. The ghost of a Pug's g…
      12 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. Davido989
      12 years, 1 month ago

      A with Falc

    3. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
      12 years, 1 month ago

      B

      1. Beavis
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers all

    4. Arvin-ation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      A with Falcao

    5. Louis
      12 years, 1 month ago

      B

  14. Davido989
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Scared of not owning Aguero. Very scared. 🙁

    1. Breadbin
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Not for the next 2 weeks, then it's pending hamstring.

    2. BantamPhil
      12 years, 1 month ago

      No, not big enough ownership

    3. Ash_195
      12 years, 1 month ago

      so true....but if i own him rest of the team is shit

    4. There's Always One!
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Ive sold Ramsey so I can get kun next werk

  15. Rossman
    12 years, 1 month ago

    It's a roll of the dice maybe....but who to captain??

    Costa (does he play?!)
    Falcao
    Balotelli

    1. Davido989
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Mario.

  16. United13
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Falcao! #excited #puntycaptainchoice

    1. Davido989
      12 years, 1 month ago

      1-0 QPR #nosurprise

      1. Malcolm Tucker for England …
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 1 month ago

        #cackyclap

    2. Breadbin
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I wonder who you support.

  17. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Mark.

    You are becoming TOO influenced by commercial considerations. And last Season! 😉 😀

    1. Davido989
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Doos, thank for your help with my WC team. Love my defence! Good luck for the gameweek 🙂

      1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Ooo - my pleasure!!! Good luck to you, chum! 🙂

    2. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Morning Doosra, how's it going? -8 for me. The cost of boredom?

      1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 1 month ago

        - 8 for me too. No, Danny's Hammy! 🙂

        1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          12 years, 1 month ago

          *thigh, but you know what I mean ... 🙂

  18. There's Always One!
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Get Rooney, Falcao, or Balotelli??

  19. Jebiga
    12 years, 1 month ago

    On wc. Crazy to go without rambo ? Think its not

    Curtois
    Moreno, clyne, wilson, duff, hutton
    Di maria, fabregas, sterling, siggurdson, boyd
    Diego costa, aguero, welbeck

  20. LewanGOALski
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Have any reports appeared saying sth about Ramsey and/or Costa starting today?

    1. Breadbin
      12 years, 1 month ago

      None at all.

    2. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Ramsey has passed a fitness test and trained. Will play.

      Nothing on Costa, as you would expect. Will play IMO. Be it 60 minutes starting or 30 off the bench is up in the air.

  21. Coaly
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Will captain the first to two votes: Ivan, Sterling, Costa, Rooney, Balo

    1. FPL Emu
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Rooney

    2. Manic Miner
      12 years, 1 month ago

      rooney

    3. EmreCan Hustle
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Balo.

    4. JUNITED
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Balo and Sterling for safe.

      Costa for risk.

      Rooney -> Fixture

      Ivan: A punt

      It's up to you now. They are all great choice for captain. I would say go for Costa or Balo or Sterling.

    5. mdm
      12 years, 1 month ago

      rooney

    6. flipperallstars
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Siggy

  22. BayerNevaLusen
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone want to try and talk me out of doing Fletcher ---> Pelle for a hit? Southampton have scored 9 goals in the past 4 games against Newcastle and I would be surprised if any of my bench players get more then 2 points. Surely its a no brainer?

  23. NATSTER
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Help.. A or B ?

    A: Di Maria + Welbeck
    B: Zaha + Falcao/Rooney

    1. Jebiga
      12 years, 1 month ago

      A

  24. T90
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Who should i Play this game week ?
    Sigurdson or Chester?

  25. In Like Flynn.
    • Has Moderation Rights
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Thanks Mark, here we go.

    I think if price changes are worth having at all, then large changes are the only ones that make sense, making the prices an important part of the strategy.
    As it is now, I see no point in having changes at all.

    1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I don't quite agree, some is better than none. But I would MUCH rather return to the old system - rewards decisiveness, and punishes dilatoriness! 😀

      1. In Like Flynn.
        • Has Moderation Rights
        12 years, 1 month ago

        I'd agree Doos, if I weren't absolutely right. 😉

  26. Deano
    12 years, 1 month ago

    A. Balotelli (C)

    Or

    B. RVP (C)

    1. Tommytour
      12 years, 1 month ago

      If you have B there can't be a better game to captain

    2. Breadbin
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Always captain RVP.

      1. Bobby
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Lot of talk of people captaining one of falcao Rooney and rvp - thought only two would start or is there a chance Rooney will drop deep?

  27. Tommytour
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Did Sterling rise and Mata drop last night?

    May need an early transfer this week

    1. Breadbin
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I can't be bothered to check either.

    2. BantamPhil
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Sure did

  28. Takedog1
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Rooney or haz captain???

    1. FPL Emu
      12 years, 1 month ago

      haz

  29. Brian (Not the Messiah)
    12 years, 1 month ago

    So it's Mark's fault that the price changes are broken... 🙁

  30. Wounded Prophets
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Maria or Ramsey