[sbu_large_image] Preamble
25 October 2014 1876 comments
Mark Mark
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How do you follow a 114-point Gameweek? You don’t. You just hope that you can muster a reasonable tally the week after and avoid an anti-climatic red arrow. Such is the roller-coaster of a Fantasy season.

Realistically, my moment in the sun will have passed within the next hour. I’ll probably never hit that kind of haul again outside of the double Gameweek and it’s feasible that my rank will never trouble the top 500 once as , almost inevitably, I slip out of that exclusive club this evening.

Why so negative? I think it’s because, having gone for broke by laying down the Wildcard in Gameweek 7, I’ve since regressed into my shell and blown an opportunity – I’ve failed to “grasp the nettle”.

If you listened to this week’s ScoutCast, you’ll know that an opportunity to jettison Diego Costa came up, with the option to buy the coveted Graziano Pelle in his place, whilst welcoming the luxurious brilliance of Eden Hazard into my dressing room for the hot-and-cold Gylfi Sigurdsson.

My heart said that this was the right move – bold and decisive: a set of trades that would promise immediate rewards from Gameweek 9. Sadly, my head said “show caution” – wait for Jose Mourinho’s words and hold on to Costa just another 24 hours. Listening to that guarded mantra meant that the prices shifted out of line, blocking off the option. I let the opportunity slip and I think I’m going to regret that. This season’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) winner will have gone for it.

This morning I’m optimistic that Costa will be on the pitch at some point at Old Trafford but not confident that he’ll come away with points to compensate for what Pelle and Hazard would have offered me. I can only hope that Gylfi decides to carve open the Foxes at the Liberty to bridge the gap. I’m not convinced.

This continual shifting of opportunities and the crossroads they create as we approach Saturday’s deadline are, in essence, what can make the FPL game so compelling.

There was talk criticising the price change mechanic in the game and, while I acknowledge that it’s been tempered (a good thing to my mind), it’s still a factor that can cruelly remove transfer scenarios from you like a thief in the night. That sinking feeling in the morning when you realise that your hesitancy has cost you is not pleasant but I have respect for it: I curse my own failings, not those of the game.

Now I haven’t a clue what to do next. I’ve two free transfers and no obvious route to take – plus the potential of watching Pelle and Hazard rain on my Gameweek 8 parade. It offers a timely reminder: last week is gone, you’re only as good as the current Gameweek.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

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  1. In Like Flynn.
    • Has Moderation Rights
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Where the hell's the preamble?

    1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 9 days ago

      😆

  2. The ghost of a Pug's g…
    12 years, 9 days ago

    First sub issues...

    Hutton or Boyd?

    Also schurrle will be an awesome punt this week...

    1. Optimus.
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Boydinho

      1. The ghost of a Pug's g…
        12 years, 9 days ago

        Cheazzz

    2. Art Vandelay
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Same benching issue and went for Boys 1st sub, possible a result of by Duff decision to put him 2nd on the bench last week.

    3. XhakaCan
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Sir George Boyd
      Also yes, Schurrle could do well, with Remy and (probably) Costa out

  3. That Fantasy Guy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Costa and cahill to chambers and aguero -4 done B)

    My team
    Krul
    Clyne chambers Baines
    Tadic fabregas Di Maria sterling
    Naismith aguero(c) welbeck (vc)

    Subs: Begovic wisdom hutton Marney
    Let the points roll! (I hope) 🙂

    What you think?

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Very nice.

  4. Diego Hazard
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Welbeck, Clyne and Sterling to Pelle, Baines and Downing for -8

    Final thoughts that would change my thinking ?

    1. Optimus.
      12 years, 9 days ago

      No

    2. Ser Football 42
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Seems too sideways for a -8

    3. ILOVEBAPS
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Nope. Why get rid of 3 good players who could outscore the three you are bringing in? And for a -8!!

      1. Diego Hazard
        12 years, 9 days ago

        Baines v Burnley Clyne v Stoke
        Pelle v Stoke Compared to Welbeck v Sunderland
        Downing v Man C Sterling v Hull

        Only see Sterling outscoring Downing

  5. ILOVEBAPS
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Best captain from this lot??

    Pelle Aguerro Berahino
    Siggy Sterling

    Currently on Berahino.

    1. POLSKA GOLA
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Kun

      1. ILOVEBAPS
        12 years, 9 days ago

        Mmm... what's his track record vs WHU?

  6. bring_on _the_fantasy
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Welbck or Berahino in for Cisse?

  7. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Rate my defenders from best to worst in terms of playing this week

    1. Ivan(mun)
    2. Dier(NEW)
    3. Baines(bur)
    4. Wisdom(C P)
    5. Kolarov(wham)

    1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      12 years, 9 days ago

      And where is everybody?

    2. bring_on _the_fantasy
      12 years, 9 days ago

      are you serious?

      1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
        12 years, 9 days ago

        Obviously some are not negotiable but the 3rd spot is a conundrum, but you just move along

    3. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 9 days ago

      I can't - I'm parti pris ...

      1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
        12 years, 9 days ago

        Say what?

  8. Demí
    12 years, 9 days ago

    It offers a timely reminder: last week is gone, you’re only as good as the current Gameweek.

    Love that. Great read, as ever.

      1. Demí
        12 years, 9 days ago

        :lol:

        1. Demí
          12 years, 9 days ago

          Ffs

          1. Optimus.
            12 years, 9 days ago

            😀

  9. John Colby (C)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Anyone else tempted to captain Sterling this gameweek? I have Aguero but just feel that with Hull's injury list and the chance he'll play through the middle that Sterling is the one Liverpool will look to today.

    1. Venom Snake
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Yeah I'm very tempted definitely

  10. Flycroft
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 9 days ago

    when Costa starts and bags a brace tomorrow, you won't regret your decision Mark.

    Hazard just hasn't shown enough to justify investment. We have VERY similar teams and ranks, and i have stuck with diego too.

    Best of luck to everyone this week

    1. The ghost of a Pug's g…
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Hope you are right my man...

  11. The ghost of a Pug's g…
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Just woke up...what's the latest with Costa? Or is it still up in the air?

    Just doing the last minute armband shuffle.

    1. Art Vandelay
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Odds have shifted towards him playing. Mourinho said if he gets through training OK, he will play

      (Mourinho's comments may or may not be BS)

      1. The ghost of a Pug's g…
        12 years, 9 days ago

        Thanks. I suppose playing doesn't mean starting either!

        1. Art Vandelay
          12 years, 9 days ago

          I am pretty sure it does in this situation.

  12. MJ6987
    12 years, 9 days ago

    @Mark

    Is there not an argument for still doing the Costa > Pelle part? Pelle likely to score more this week and you would still have the 2FT next week to bring Costa back, if you want to.

    1. Beavis
      12 years, 9 days ago

      That's what I've done and I don't think value issues come into it too much either.

      1. MJ6987
        12 years, 9 days ago

        And me!

    2. Art Vandelay
      12 years, 9 days ago

      It is still two transfers, free or not. I see FTs as still worth 4 points.

      1. MJ6987
        12 years, 9 days ago

        I do too

  13. Gandalf !
    12 years, 9 days ago

    keep SILVA or not ? ( already have dimaria tadic sterling siggy)

    1. Venom Snake
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Not

      1. Gandalf !
        12 years, 9 days ago

        who to bring in ?

    2. ILOVEBAPS
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Wave your staff and see what happens.

    3. POLSKA GOLA
      12 years, 9 days ago

      I have Silva and keeping. Maybe swap for Hazard next week when Chelase have a tasty home fixture.

    4. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Sling, I fear ...

    5. PogChamp
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Had since GW2 but sold for Diame. Silva is not getting the points.

  14. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 9 days ago

    The strange thing is, that we are still well before Xmas, so if nothing else, preserving team value meant ditching Costa at least early this week.

    Then, we can all argue about the whys and wherefores of the next move ... 🙂

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      12 years, 9 days ago

      But I would have lost money if I had sold him....

      1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 9 days ago

        No ... but you have now!

        1. Ginkapo FPL
          12 years, 9 days ago

          bought 10.5
          Was 11.2
          Now 10.9

          Dropped 0.3, dropped 0.1 in selling price for me.

          1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            12 years, 9 days ago

            So far ...

            Meanwhile, my team has made 0.4.

    2. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      12 years, 9 days ago

      I certainly didn't realise, given his ownership level and being flagged there was any way he'd drop .3.

      Still as you say, there it is.

      1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 9 days ago

        I was pretty sure about that ...

      2. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
        12 years, 9 days ago

        I'm surprised he's dropped 0.3

        Alex Bruce has had similar net transfers out this season and has dropped 01. 😕 The price changes are baffling this season.

        1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          12 years, 9 days ago

          SIMILAR NET TRANSFERS???

          Costa's ownership was 68%!!!

          Bruce - a few men and their dogs ...

          1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
            12 years, 9 days ago

            Well if, as previous seasons, price drops are contingent on % ownership, then those net transfers out should have had an even bigger effect on Bruce price...

            1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              12 years, 9 days ago

              Bruce's entire ownership is dropping out of Costa on a 12-hourly basis ...

              1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
                12 years, 9 days ago

                Bruce has had 288k transfers out this season, dropped 0.1

                Costa has had 350k out this week, dropped 0.3

                In previous seasons at least, higher ownership players have required more transfers out to drop 0.1, as the algorithm worked on %transfers out. Furthermore, successive drops in a GW required successively more transfers out; it was a linear scale. Also, when players were flagged, as Costa was, didn't they also require more transfers out to drop than if a players wasn't flagged.

                The algorithm must be very different this season as I cam't make any sense of those numbers.

                1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
                  12 years, 9 days ago

                  wasn't a linear scale*

                2. In Like Flynn.
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  12 years, 9 days ago

                  Rooney 325,000 .1 ?

        2. In Like Flynn.
          • Has Moderation Rights
          12 years, 9 days ago

          Rooney GWs 3 & 4 only went down .1 lower ownership and no flag.

          1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
            12 years, 9 days ago

            yeah, as I say, odd an seemingly inconsistent

    3. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Thing is, all signs point to Costa being fully fit for QPR, if that's he case everyone will want him. His price will only rise back to similar levels, especially if he bags a goal or two tomorrow.

      1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 years, 9 days ago

        Which signs would these be?

        1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
          12 years, 9 days ago

          Well the fact that he could well start tomorrow, or at least play some part, suggest to me that with another week of recovery (providing no aggravating injuries) he'll be golden.

          1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            12 years, 9 days ago

            I believe that you are deluding yourself. Maybe I'm wrong, but this time round, I think that there really is a wolf ...

            1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
              12 years, 9 days ago

              We will see.

        2. The ghost of a Pug's g…
          12 years, 9 days ago

          Hot topic doos

          1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            12 years, 9 days ago

            I read that. Bunkum, imo.

  15. Venom Snake
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Captain Kun or Sterling?

    1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 9 days ago

      I prefer Sterling.

    2. Zimppa
      12 years, 9 days ago

      In the same boat as you, going with Aguero. Feels safer.

    3. XhakaCan
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Sterling for me, Hull have conceded 10 goals in their last 3 matches at Anfield, while West Ham could be tough opponents for City.

    4. The ghost of a Pug's g…
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Aguero

  16. John t penguin
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Surely you can still do Costa to pelle

  17. Nabs Kebabs
    12 years, 9 days ago

    costa's price is really plummeting 😯

  18. Kev07
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Have horrible keepers this weekend. Krul (tot) or Mannone (ARS)?

    1. XhakaCan
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Ouch, I'd choose Mannone but they might both conceed.

  19. In Like Flynn.
    • Has Moderation Rights
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Yet with all that you've still chosen not to make a transfer to get you (at least part way) to what you see as an ideal set up.
    I'm sure you'll be fine Mark. Hits are still allowed if the opportunity for you if you see another way to your perfect team you know.

  20. PogChamp
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Nice preamble. Costa and Kun is horses for courses but I wouldn't like to be going into the GW without Pelle.

  21. Miracallas
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Nice preamble

  22. bring_on _the_fantasy
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Who in for Cisse...

    Welbck or Berahino?

    1. Tomlette Greggs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 9 days ago

      B

  23. Pepin - RIP Absinthe
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Great article, as always.

    1. Beavis
      12 years, 9 days ago

      +1
      Really enjoyed it as well.

    2. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Agree. 🙂

  24. Redalert
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Morning all. What. Keeper combo are people going with on wc?

  25. Juve9le
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Front 8 of

    Siggy Sterling Fab Tadic ADM
    Costa Welbz Berahino

    Who would you guys bench here? Lost....

    1. fantoom
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Tough call, probably Siggy

  26. The ghost of a Pug's g…
    12 years, 9 days ago

    I got burned with team value last year. Leading up to the final two weeks I had a 6 point advantage, with aguero and silva in my team. My opponent, with a much lower TV, had nasri and dzeko...

    This year I wait cautiously....absorbing price drops, learning from past mistakes.

    1. Debauchy
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Same here

      1. The ghost of a Pug's g…
        12 years, 9 days ago

        I still hurt...

  27. M.I.A.
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Aguero or Pelle for Captain?

    Currently have it on Pelle.

  28. Burd Turglars
    12 years, 9 days ago

    "Like a thief in the night..."

    Nice. Very nice.

  29. Optimus.
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Aguero/Chadli/Wisdom to outscore Welbeck/ADM?Welbeck by -8? 😀

    1. Debauchy
      12 years, 9 days ago

      Lol

  30. rye5098
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 years, 9 days ago

    Folks,

    Thought on the best keeper to replace DDG. Not doing a GK rotation.

    Considered Lloris but think Kaboul is a cheaper route into there defence?
    Howard another good option but I'm looking at Baines/Coleman next week.