The obvious thing to do was to swoop for Sergio Aguero immediately. That would have ensured that there was little chance of a couple of price rises working as factors to persuade me to ignore Aguero come today’s 11.30 gong.

Predictably, that was far too straightforward for me. Readers of these words on a regular basis will know that, when presented with a crossroads, the path signposted the “Blatantly Obvious Avenue” never quite looks as welcoming as the heady sights offered by “Too Clever By Half Street”, even though I suspect the latter is a cul-de-sac.

This morning, having watched Aguero rise in price twice this week, my Fantasy Sat Nav is again suggesting I take an unexpected turn. Instead of trading Diego Costa at Swansea with his questionable away form for the undoubted and essential talents of Aguero at home to Arsenal, I’m exploring unwise alternatives.

Aaron Cresswell’s clean sheet for West Ham at home to Hull looks fairly assured and that’s tempted me to consider bringing him into my back three. The method to my madness suggests that Cresswell’s clean sheet would allow me to retain Costa at Swansea: Aguero would have to outscore Cresswell’s return against Hull, while I suspect Costa has a good chance of bettering Alan Hutton’s tally against Liverpool: the Villa man is my only defensive option should I make the Costa to Aguero trade.

If that sounds convoluted, it’s probably because it is. I’m overthinking a situation which, in reality, is a simple case of trading like for like. Get Costa out and get the superior Aguero in my frontline. More significantly, that would allow me to put the armband on the Argentine. Job done. Let’s watch the points roll in.

Instead, I’m about to rely on Costa’s ropey away form, allow a budget striker to wear my armband and, once again, risk my sanity on one of Big Sam’s charges.

As always, I’ve found a way to justify it. Aguero couldn’t inflict any damage on a tired and obliging Everton defence in 24 minutes – why would he blitz Arsenal with a two-goal salvo a week later? Wenger surely won’t allow his side to ship six goals this time?

Cresswell is up against a wounded Hull outfit who are likely to rely on the deadly pair of Gaston Ramirez and Sone Aluko for goals. Only this week, Big Sam was talking up the Hammers’ quest for clean sheets: a shut-out is brewing down in East London.

Then there’s Harry Kane – he will surely produce at home to a Sunderland side who appear to be bereft of a midfield enforcer. The Black Cats’ back four could be largely unprotected and Kane has the form and ability to punish that. The armband is safe with Harry.

Finally, there’s Costa. My dear old Diego. He’s served me well – scoring just frequently enough for me to ward off those claims that my investment has been wasted, my faith misplaced. He could do a job at Swansea, coupled with Cresswell’s returns, to outperform Aguero and Hutton.

I’ve talked myself into this. I’ve watched Aguero’s price rise to 12.5, almost to help justify taking this route. If I get it right, the rewards will likely be a handful of points and the smug satisfaction that I’d avoided doing the obvious. Get it wrong and the punishment could potentially be catastrophic – a severe spanking that even my Wildcard will struggle to salve.

I seem to openly invite “Mr Disappointment” into my weekends through the medium of my Fantasy Football team. I leave the door ajar, make his bed and put the kettle on. Let’s see if he comes knocking this time.