CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2014/15 – FANTASY ITEAM MATCHDAY 13 PICKS

Manager Impact: Team Analysis

Last season saw several mid-season managerial changes to Premier League teams as clubs attempted to avoid the drop. Of six teams to make changes to their head coach, five avoided relegation, with QPR the unlucky suitors to be destined a place in the Championship next year.

Here we take look at the statistical impact the new managers had, both offensively and defensively, as the 2015/16 season nears. This may give insight into the style we can expect to see from certain teams over next season. Beside the team names are the position of when their original manager was sacked, and their final position at the end of the season.

Below are the five teams that installed new managers and avoided relegation. By looking at the basic offensive and defensive stats, we can see how the change affected the team and this may give us an idea of how certain managers are likely to play. Obviously, certain styles might have been adopted in order to avoid relegation, but nonetheless it shows what the squad is capable of.

Crystal Palace [18th – 10th]
Neil Warnock [18 games]
Shots: 196 Shots to Goal Ratio: 9.8
Goals: 20 Average Goals Scored per Game: 1.1
Goals Conceded: 30 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.6
Clean Sheets: 3 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 6.3

Alan Pardew [20 games]
Shots: 246 Shots to Goal Ratio: 9.1
Goals: 27 Average Goals Scored per Game: 1.35
Goals Conceded: 21 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.05
Clean Sheets: 4 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 5

West Brom [16th – 13th]
Alan Irvine [23 games]
Shots: 272 Shots to Goal Ratio: 13.6
Goals: 20 Average Goals Scored per Game: 0.86
Goals Conceded: 32 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.39
Clean Sheets: 8 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 2.875

Tony Pulis [15 games]
Shots: 140 Shots to Goal Ratio: 7.7
Goals: 18 Average Goals Scored per Game: 1.2
Goals Conceded: 19 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.26
Clean Sheets: 8 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 1.8

Newcastle [9th –17th]
Alan Pardew [18 games]
Shots: 224 Shots to Goal Ratio: 11.7
Goals: 19 Average Goals Scored per Game: 1.05
Goals Conceded: 26 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.4
Clean Sheets: 5 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 3.6

John Carver [20 games]
Shots: 244 Shots to Goal Ratio: 11.6
Goals: 21 Average Goals Scored per Game: 1.05
Goals Conceded: 37 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.85
Clean Sheets: 3 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 6.6

Sunderland [17th – 16th]
Gus Poyet [29 games]
Shots: 299 Shots to Goal Ratio: 13
Goals: 23 Average Goals Scored per Game: 0.79
Goals Conceded: 43 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.48
Clean Sheets: 9 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 3.2

Dick Advocaat [9 games]
Shots: 109 Shots to Goal Ratio: 13.6
Goals: 8 Average Goals Scored per Game: 0.88
Goals Conceded: 10 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.11
Clean Sheets: 4 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 2.25

Aston Villa [18th – 17th]
Paul Lambert [25 games]
Shots: 258 Shots to Goal Ratio: 21.5
Goals: 12 Average Goals Scored per Game: 0.48
Goals Conceded: 34 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.36
Clean Sheets: 7 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 3.57

Tim Sherwood [13 games]
Shots: 160 Shots to Goal Ratio: 8.42
Goals: 19 Average Goals Scored per Game: 1.46
Goals Conceded: 23 Average Goals Conceded per Game: 1.76
Clean Sheets: 3 Games to Clean sheet ratio: 4.3

So what can we infer from all these numbers and figures?

1) Crystal Palace – It seems with Palace, Pardew is a lot more patient in waiting for a chance, choosing to have his team shoot a lot less more than when he was at Newcastle. Defensively Crystal Palace have been the most improved in terms of goals conceded per game, despite having a poor clean sheet potential. Certainly a team to watch for next season if they can cut out those few goals conceded.

2) West Brom – As expected, West Brom became a solid option to have in defence as the club saw Tony Pulis take over. The Baggies had the best game to clean sheet ratio of the teams that made managerial changes. Their finishing improved greatly with only two goals less than predecessor Alan Irvine, with nearly half as many shots needed. Definitely worth considering for defensive assets next season.

3) Newcastle – With the departure of Alan Pardew, Newcastle managed to narrowly avoid the drop under John Carver. With almost identical shooting stats, it was the defence that suffered most as a string of disappointing results ensued. If Carver is set to stay, I find it very hard to see any value in Newcastle players unless things change quickly.

4) Sunderland – Gus Poyet’s luck finally ran out in March when he was sacked by the club. The Black Cats were quite wasteful in front of goal, and even with the introduction of Defoe in January, this seemed to persist. Taking his place, was Dick Advocaat who managed to keep Sunderland up with very defensive displays., despite poor attacking performances. Narrowly behind Pardew and ahead of Pulis for average goals conceded, one thing is for certain: Dick likes it tight. Depending on the pricing, we may see more investment in the likes of Pantillimon and Van Aanholt.

5) Aston Villa – Lastly, Tim Sherwood’s arrival was greeted with mixed reception. As he kept Villa up with some great end-of-season performances from Benteke, we look towards next season with an air of excitement at the possible forward threat available. As the most attacking manager of the five, getting goals is where Sherwood’s squad draws its strength, but definitely not in defence. Worth keeping an eye on the forward situation at Villa until then.

For a future article, I might examine managers that favour a highly offensive/ defensive style and look at the areas that their game focuses on heavily. By looking at whether teams focus on wing-play, through the middle, set-pieces or overlap from defenders, it could highlight a few players that may be worth tracking for next season.