[sbu_large_image] Preamble
31 October 2015 2063 comments
Mark Mark
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Everton’s incredible schedule up until the New Year has given me an opportunity dig up an old argument.

“Form or Fixtures” is a hackneyed and tired debate amongst these pages and Fantasy Football managers – so, if I’m going to revive it, I’m going to have to try and inject it with new life.

Let’s start by saying that, in my view, tracking and speculating on fixtures provides the platform for those who aspire to “maverick” management.

Similarly, when we become over-reliant on form to guide our decisions, seeking comfort in proven trends rather than attempting to seek out and exploit new patterns, we are, by that description, favouring the “dullard” management style.

Despite the fact that studying fixtures involves scanning spreadsheets and schedules, I therefore see it as the “sexy” and “aspirational” option.

Fixtures can provide some basis of logic to fuel speculative and risky decisions. Those decisions may backfire and that’s how form gets widely established as the most reliable and effective factor behind winning at Fantasy Football.

However, without some influence of fixtures and the thinking they promote, Fantasy Football management can become a turgid and repetitive experience.

I look to Andy at this point, riding high at the top of our contributors league and placed in the top 150 overall.

When he signed Harry Kane in Gameweek 9, he wasn’t basing that decision on his form. Kane had just a single goal to his name and yet, with the luxury of a strong rank, Andy made the decision to draft him in and was rewarded with his Gameweek 10 hat-trick.

I imagine Kane’s fixtures – the trip to Bournemouth and now four home matches in the next six – played some part in reassuring Andy’s maverick urges.

I now look to the top transferred-in players this week and note that Jamie Vardy sits just behind Kane. The Leicester man has struck goals in seven consecutive Gameweeks and is in the form of his life.

The decision made by those 140,000 FPL managers is clearly based on Vardy’s current form and yet, there’s an argument to say that Romelu Lukaku could outscore Vardy over the next eight Gameweeks.

There can be no question that the Vardy transfer is more logical. As such, we can also associate such a decision with typical “dullard” behaviour.

Is Vardy the better option? Our Watchlist says so and I find it difficult to argue against every team requiring the Foxes striker. However, I also think there’s every chance that Vardy’s output will regress and that Lukaku will exploit Everton’s schedule and outscore him.

It would take close scrutiny of the Toffees’ schedule to arrive at that theory; it would also take a brave Fantasy Football manager to back it.

I’m not sure on Andy’s methods but, as a Fantasy Football manager that loves to speculate – that enjoys seeking out the 30-yard Hollywood ball rather than opt to keep possession with sideways pass – I realise that I put too much stock in fixtures.

At this point it’s normally appropriate to say that there is no wrong or right approach. However, I think that’s nonsense.

Form is so often the most important factor – consider player form, then team form and only then bring fixtures into the equation.

However, I like to think that the really successful Fantasy Football managers need more than that basic framework to play this game.

Studying fixtures allows us to branch out – it’s the comfort blanket that we cling to when we make a transfer that walks on the wild side.

Those transfers make Fantasy Football worth playing and the highs you get from those trades so often outweigh the satisfaction gained from another Vardy goal.

I like to consider form as my cosy and reliable local. Then, every so often, I willingly allow the fixture list to tempt me into more exciting venues, where lady luck perches at the bar, seductively flicking through pictures of Lukaku’s goal celebrations.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

2,063 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Shrimp On The Barb
    10 years, 11 months ago

    I've been on Bony all week, but I know he'll get subbed off early. Should I still do it?

    1. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      What two adult do with concent is their own business

    2. Gooner Kebab
      10 years, 11 months ago

      after he gets his hattrick

    3. Debauchy
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Standing firm here

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        That's what shrimp said

  2. Puzzle
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Play Myhill or Hennessey?

  3. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Why can't I find the scoudcast in my podcasts feed??

  4. BlzE_94
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Any news whether Hazard starts?

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      10 years, 11 months ago

      sell him, even for a hit

  5. pistol_pete
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Mahrez or Ighalo to bench?

    1. Puzzle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Mahrez

    2. funnyoldgame
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Assuming you have vary, then MAhrez

  6. Del Monte
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Costa's in the matchday squad.

    1. Numb
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Oh, what a surprise!

  7. Lone Wolf FPL
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Any chance for The Blues for CS?

  8. Captain Vantastic™
    10 years, 11 months ago

    mane gonna punish non owners

    1. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      *owners

      1. Gr3g
        10 years, 11 months ago

        +1

  9. FISSH
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Flipped a coin for KDB and Pelle. Got KDB. Sticking. Good luck all!

    Butland
    Bellerin, VVD, Kolarov
    Sanchez, KDB, Payet, Mahrez
    Pelle, Lukaku, Vardy

  10. FPL Emu
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Please, please help. I am going to do two of these three transfers (for free).

    Your help would make me a happy panda.

    Martin to Van Dijk
    Mahrez to Mane
    Butland to Howard

    1. RÏɠBY
      10 years, 11 months ago

      first two

      1. Gooner Kebab
        10 years, 11 months ago

        this

  11. Del Griffith
    10 years, 11 months ago

    I'll just be happy if Mane scores points, KGB (C) Lets do this !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. RÏɠBY
    10 years, 11 months ago

    i think it's about time people stopped posting their whole team and just wrote who their third striker was
    EVERYONE has the same team

    1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Have they? 🙂

      1. RÏɠBY
        10 years, 11 months ago

        pretty much

  13. Crouchy
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Few rumours circulating on Twitter that Hazard isn't starting.
    I doubt people still have him on this anyway.

    1. King Kav. QC at law
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Good!

    2. Alittude
      10 years, 11 months ago

      just sold him, enough

  14. GuillermoDickero
    10 years, 11 months ago

    For a FT

    Martial --------> Lukaku??

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      10 years, 11 months ago

      yes

    2. Martial Arts
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Lukaku will blank, Martial will play central!

    3. RÏɠBY
      10 years, 11 months ago

      expect pain

  15. Numb
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Any breaking team news before the deadline?

    1. Milan
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Costa in team. Video on Chelsea twitter.

      1. Numb
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers

  16. The Hindu Monkey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Costa fit

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      10 years, 11 months ago

      ...but weak

  17. ILOVEBAPS
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Done. Welcome to my armband Mane!

    1. Pochecinno
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Me too. I just did it about 20 mins after dithering over Pelle and Kolarov

      1. Pochecinno
        10 years, 11 months ago

        20 mins ago

  18. Red Star Toro
    10 years, 11 months ago

    A) Play Dier
    B) Play Mahrez, AoA

    1. Red Star Toro
      10 years, 11 months ago

      anyone please?

      1. makaveli70
        10 years, 11 months ago

        i had same problem but at last ill play Dier & my first sub is Mahrez

      2. ☆Khaz
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Im using AoA now to play Mahrez, but I had Dawson in defence..

  19. Pulis Ki Vardy
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Repost

    Bellerin (swa)
    Dier (AVL)
    Sagna (NOR)
    VVD (BOU)

    Who to bench???

    Currently on Bellerin? Talk me out of it?

    1. Red Star Toro
      10 years, 11 months ago

      nope Bellerin is good

  20. Malcolm Tucker for England …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Any FAKE lineups out yet?
    Drogba playing?

    1. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Apparently mahrez on the bench

    2. Your Mum's Athletic
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Shevchenko starts

    3. Malcolm Tucker for England …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      To clarify to mods these are FAKE news items.

      Daniel amokachi starting for Everton tomorrow

    4. Pochecinno
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Kun starting

      PANIC

  21. Your Mum's Athletic
    10 years, 11 months ago

    G2G?

    Butland

    Bellerin Kolarov VVD

    Sanchez KDB(c) Payet Mahrez Mane

    Pelle Vardy

    Subs: McCarthy Ighalo Morgan Souare

    1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      GtG. Good luck! 🙂

      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        10 years, 11 months ago

        cheers Doosra, you too bud 🙂

  22. FISSH
    10 years, 11 months ago

    mahrez > mane is sooooo tempting

    1. Poison Apple
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      just did it!

  23. King Kav. QC at law
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Hearing some rumours about Hazard. Hmm.

    1. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      ?

  24. Sharkytect
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Just watching last weeks match of the day (this is how it happens when you don't own a TV). Lukaku does still look a threat, even against a tough arsenal defence. I'm excited to have him in my team this week.

  25. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Costa fit what a surprise

    1. FPL Puppy
      10 years, 11 months ago

      I'm expecting you to be in full form today, lots of post. 😉

  26. Waynoo
    10 years, 11 months ago

    hazard benched according to sources

    1. King Kav. QC at law
      10 years, 11 months ago

      My source was "reports". What's yours?

    2. BlzE_94
      10 years, 11 months ago

      You better not be joking

  27. Fergietime
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Watford have only scored once in their last five home matches. Ighalo to the bench then. Mahrez in.

  28. Super Frank8
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Ranked 1.4 millionth. Captain Mane or Kdb for catch up?

    1. Super Silva
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Mane

    2. Del Griffith
      10 years, 11 months ago

      has to be MAne then

    3. EmreCan Hustle
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Mane.

  29. Super Silva
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Hazard and Costa will start.
    My mate is @ the bridge

  30. Forza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    So what's this week's BS rumour?