We delve into the data over the past four rounds of fixtures this evening and roll out the first in a three-part series looking at the players by position. First up, then, it’s the defenders, with West Ham, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Spurs and Watford’s left-backs all catching the eye, whilst Palace’s goal-getting centre-half and Everton’s lack of resilience are also amongst our Wednesday night analysis.
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A lukaku and deulofeu
Or
B ighalo and ozil -4?
Ta.x-
Lukaku and Bolasie
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Lukaku and Ozil
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So my only armband candidates are Vardy (if fit) and Kane. 🙂 Guy first in my ML doesn't own either 🙂
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Why wouldn't Vardy be fit? Is this new?
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Slight knock, very unlikely that he won't be fit but just saying.
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Have a look here mate: https://twitter.com/BBCRLSport/status/664795585032134656
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He's been orange flagged for a while.
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Don't have Lukaku, I guess?
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Does the Brazil v Argentina postponement cause any issues?
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Nah, the second game stays on schedule for both teams. Just that the likes of Willian and Rojo and Fernandinho have to play two games in four days.
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Thanks mate.
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Which team cover (and player) is not as important to have defensively over the next ten GWs or so?
A. City (Sagna)
B. United (Rojo)
C. Arsenal (Cech)
D. Spurs (Toby)
On WC, I want them but can only afford 3 of the 4.-
A and B needs good backup.
A) Zaba probably back, and Pellegrini said Clichy could play both LB and RB.
B) Might be rotated, but probably not.
However, I fancy all, but if I had to choose. It'll probably be D. -
Tough choice. I'd want a City defender but Sagna's probably won't be nailed on with Zabaleta due back soon.
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Once Injured players return will Sagnas place be at threat?
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I'd steer clear of Sagna. And I'd get DDG rather than Rojo/Cech.
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DDG, Toby and Bellerin
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To afford that, I'd need to replace Cabaye for Lanzini. Not a terrible option by any means, but doesn't have pens.
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I've just reviewed Lanzini. I wonder what Doos will say? 😯
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Haha! 😉
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-239 43 673 -901 +541 -20072 13 999 310 439 -2x + 3y 56 -2310 = Buy him. It's written in the stars.
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Hahahha 😀
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You may laugh - he doesn't like me doing this sort of thing. 😕
Nearly as bad as Torres Tragic.-
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Its funny cos its true.
"Doosra what do you think of this player"
"random numbers - bad option"
but I still rate him as a ffs user-
Random numbers?
*raises eyebrow*-
😀 haha
He DID say he still rates you, so a bit of a backhanded compliment there..
Perfect use of a complisult 🙂
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Fantastic 😛
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He is a trap. Believe me.
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I'm trying to picture what sort of trap a Lanzini trap would be. A bear trap doesn't seem right, neither does a mouse trap. Maybe one of those carnivorous plants...
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Honey trap. 😛
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Good read that. I look forward to your firmino review in a few weeks time
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It might be on just my phone but the colour scheme is a tad difficult to differentiate in the first chart.
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Thanks for the feedback. I may have to give up rotating the colours every eight weeks, but I'm also reluctant to work with a palette that could grow to be 37 colours deep by the end of the season...
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Will Zarate get gametime now Diva?
Been looking at him for draft game.-
Doosra's probably better placed to answer that than me HVT.
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Thanks Diva,
With Payet/Valencia? Out, wham are a tad stretched,
Moses/Lanzini/Zarate OR Sahko
Caroll up top, (Caroll could also be benched with Sahko up top)
But those 5 look interchangeable, so worth a gamble for a draft game.
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Nice write up as always.
I'm personally thinking of ditching Payet prior to his injury because of his upcoming fixtures, so I don't think I would get another Hammers asset just yet. But maybe after Man Utd (a) would be good timing, I think.
Also, please do Roberto 'the living legend' Firmino next.-
Thanks!
I've seen snippets of this Firmino talk today, but I missed seeing the origin. What's it all about?-
Instagram 😉
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That Halloween costume... 😯
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People finally realized his potential.
... mainly in photo-shoot.
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It was reported in the Mirror yesterday that Wenger was looking at giving Sanchez a mid season break as he is tired and he wants to avoid him burning out.
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Has anyone with a reputation reported the same?
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Until it is reported somewhere other than the Mirror, I won't take that too seriously.
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Wenger played him in GW1, LESS THAN a week after the Chile final. Says you something, I guess.
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So that must be true then. Good good.
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Oh hi there Jafallahad
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Ho - meant "yo" - whats upppp?
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On form this morning Jafallahad from Islamabad.
Hows it going?-
Mid-life crisis. Fecks with yer mind.
You?
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must be, this guy has posted it twice in the last 11 minutes.
must be.-
It's a long season after all 🙁
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Theres no smoke without fire...
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unless there is a mirror...
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A vaporizer doesn't really catch fire...
...but then again there is far less "smoke"... -
The Sanchez break story now being reported in The Independent, The Telegraph, Daily Mail, Football365, ESPNFC, Daily Star, Metro, and others.....
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Goodbye Jihadi John
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No gifts for you this year
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Former ffs user?
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its possible...
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just seen the news.
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Wonder what his HoF ranking is.
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The Hasslehof ranking?
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Cue new video tomorrow where he stands reading a newspaper dated 14 nov 2015.
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Fo' Sho'
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Evil fecker. Hope they hang him up by the balls.
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such a shame didn't get him alive
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far too easy to die in blink of an eye in air strike
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Guys I am 0.2m short of doing .. Payet to Deulafeo because i am also doing Martial to Kun.
Who is the best mId for 6.0 ?-
Drinkwater. 4.5. 4-5 assists already. Saves benching issues and enables Kun when he returns.
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Already have Mahrez and Vardy
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Yeah . So I went with Alli .
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Also a great option mate. Not much love for lanzini?
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Lanzini good option, but I can't see WHU players racking as many points without payet
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Bolasie.
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0.1 away from bolasie
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Sissoko
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Was looking at him but very incossistant. I might go lanzini
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If you want a dark horse go for Puncheon. Enticing next few fixtures...
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2 FTs so:
McCarthy > Hennessy & Payet > Özil
GW13 defence = Kolarov (LIV), Toby (WHU) and Cedric (STK) with Richards 1st sub.
Enough in bank for Pelle > Agüero.
Any suggestions most welcome
Thanks-
McC->Henn to free up cash I guess?
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No, my other goalie is Myhill so thinking of playing Hennessy
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well then fix your fpl link
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I've updated, not sure why the link was showing someone else's team :-/
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I think there's better defensive options about - Ake, Moreno, Dawson.
Not sure how long Kolorov will last as a starter.
You playing 343?-
Sorry posted and them had to leave for work 🙁
Yes, playing 343
My defence does need some work. I also have Francis and Cedric rotation risk too!
Considering future moves; perhaps Kolorov >Sagna to free up fund for Francis to Moreno/Dann
WBA/Watford have some tough upcoming fixtures?
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http://imgur.com/36zms1N
Bench boost ideal or save it ?-
I'd save.
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Is it just me or does JJ look very American in the cap picture.
How do we know he was trained by Americans just like the other guy who apparently buried at sea.-
Was not*
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Who is the upvoting clown?
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was about to ask same. you?
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how am i supposed to upvote my own posts?
Duuuh?-
+1
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Apparently there are 4 🙁
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Dunno but I got 6 votes for the Doos gag. Best ever.
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that post deserves atleast 10 more
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7
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8 Must be Santa's reindeers.
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12. Getting close to auto-hulk.
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Check again 🙂
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Can up voting pro slagged be removed for 'abuse'?
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😳 some typo!
* can upvotes be removed for 'abuse' ?
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Came up with a little model a while ago. It only takes into account the last 4 GWs to try and capture players' most recent form.
Its based on 3 main components, the first trying to evaluate a player's goal threat/goal scoring potential VS a particular opponent, taking into account a player's attacking stats and their opponent's defensive strengths & weaknesses. The 2nd tries to account for the quality of chances received by a player along with the opponent's susceptibility to these chances, and the last component measures assist potential.
Each component is weighted by relative importance, with assist potential being weighted the least, and they're all mixed together to generate a relative Score of sorts with which you could rank your Transfer/Captaincy options.
I've only ever tried generating scores for the immediate GW, since its based on recent form(last 4 GWs). But, I've just ran through a few of the popular FWD options, and tried to generate a score for each of the next 8 GWs to get at a total score over the 8 weeks. I realise there's already a limitation in that beyond the immediate GW, I will be basing the scores off "outdated" data since its meant to account for only the last 4 GW, but that's hard to get around so here's what it churned out anyway:
---Lukaku---
AVL – 11.27
bou - 14.51
CPL – 13.76
nor – 13.72
LEI – 10.93
new – 12.80
STK – 10.14
TOT – 9.07
TOTAL: 96.02
---Giroud---
wba: 12.31
nor: 13.80
SUN: 15.00
avl: 11.60
MCY: 8.27
sot: 12.85
BOU: 14.55
NEW: 12.93
TOTAL: 101.31
---Vardy---
new – 14.63
MUN – 10.01
swa – 13.56
CHE – 13.2
eve – 17.30
liv – 11.71
MCY – 9.19
BOU – 16.21
TOTAL: 105.81
-----Kane-----
WHM – 17.40
CHE – 14.88
wba – 16.13
NEW – 17.10
sot – 17.55
NOR – 18.08
wat – 15.639
eve – 20.43 ------- I was surprised too! Until I double checked their defensive stats - absolutely horrendous.
TOTAL: 137.21
Kane coming up with a whopper of a score over the next 8, Vardy quite surprisingly in 2nd considering his tough fixtures (statistically too), and Giroud just edging out Lukaku for 3rd.
Hoping to use this data to create a fixture ticker of sorts for specific players, for their next 8 GWs' fixtures. Thinking of also incorporating Home/Away data, to provide a more accurate prediction score for a particular GW, gets pretty tricky though as I'll have to extend past the last 4 GWs. Think it could be pretty interesting, and hopefully useful. 🙂
Prototype preview(lol) :
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1spfJ6fx4RlWHJirAQZt9e5MgSxuuFWAPKPdjgyiJ1-Q/edit?usp=sharing-
TL;DR mate
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+1
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Doos mkII
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Boredom-----transformation---->Doosra
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Not a dig at you btw, Doosra. 😉
Just meant to mean what boredom does to you in relation to Tina's comment.(all the stat digging)
Arvin-Thrown-Bus-Tina-Under-
What you seem not to understand, is that there are a significant number of people on here hostile to any rational - or indeed light-hearted and enjoyable - approach to the game.
Quite often, these muppets have a serious go at me. I find it quite disturbing.-
I don't believe most of them have any vicious intentions - just there for a cheap laugh or two. Don't take it to heart. 🙂 However you play the game and what you enjoy doing within/with it is your business and what someone on a fantasy football forum thinks of it really doesn't matter.
Personally, I quite enjoy delving into the stats, organising them into tables, comparing players, making tickers, (Models!!^^) etc. 😀
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Kuns return changes everything
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Maybe in the long run, but I don't think so - not now at least.
Kun's only 1 forward, you've got 3 slots up front mate.-
Kun Kane Vardy
That will be my front 3-
Good for you 🙂
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Did you get my reply Arvin?
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Will have a look now. 🙂
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What def stats are you using for everton?
not much diff between vardy/kane attacking stats, so why the big diff between kane and vardy vs eve?-
Def over last 4 weeks.
Think its down to Kane's Shot accuracy. 17.3 is still very high on my model though.
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This seems to be skewed a tad by Kane's recent hattrick..
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Sandwiched between Arsenal and Liverpool - should balance out. 🙂 Also, a hattrick counts for stats, I can't really exclude the game.
Just had a quick look. It's really not skewed that much by the game. Have a look at his stats from that game, despite 3 goals, it was mainly down to great finishing rather than a high volume of key attacking stats(with the exception of big chances)-
But does it balance out?
I have no doubt these calculations normally work out for the next gameweek, but I think they're destroyed when ya go past that.
For example, your numbers have:
Vardy - CHE – 13.2
Kane - CHE – 14.88
When Vardy is arguably in better form and in a more attacking side..-
I don't mean to offend or anything, just constructively challenging 🙂
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Constructive criticism that's only welcome. Only way I can improve the model is to present my view, hear yours and then take the model forward. 🙂
Cheers
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I believe it does.
Yeap, I agree with you, as I said to Balders, as said in the post, its meant to be used for just a prediction of the immediate GW. Just thought I'd test it out and stretch the prediction to the next 8 GWs just to see what it churns out. 🙂
I think that's because the model has Kane rated higher than Vardy in goal threat though, mainly due to Kane's superior Shot Accuracy, and the model doesn't take into account the player's teams' attacking quality. Like every model, it has its limitations and it can't possibly take every single variable into account. 🙂
The formula is still in its early stages, only came up with it last week. Will tweak and change it as the weeks go by and improvable weaknesses are noticed.-
It's a good formula, and you seem to already know what it could use to improve it even further, looking forward to your future results too 😀
Thanks for this anyways, 'twas surprising how low Lukaku was.-
Cheers 🙂
Actually, Lukaku's scores are quite high, they're just not as good as the other 3. Should probably run a few less popular names through for comparison. Someone like Pelle, KDB or Mane, Lukaku would easily outscore.
Might just stick to using this model for immediate GW prediction, at least until I change the formula.-
These are the immediate GW's numbers if you're interested:
Kane: 17.40
Ozil: 15.65
Vardy: 14.63
Giroud: 12.31
Lukaku: 11.27
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Mane: 8.37
Sanchez: 7.84
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Pelle: 2.679-
Haha not looking good for Pelle 😛
Must be something to do with his amount of missed chances yeah?
Kinda glad I took him out for a hit if these are accurate 😎-
Mostly because he can't hit the bloody target. 9% Shots on Target over the last 4 weeks excludes him as an option under my model( A limitation, but really, if you can't hit the target, you can't score! 😀 ) Stoke's recent defensive solidity doesn't help him either.
We're both hoping its successful then. 😉-
Yup here's hoping 😀
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Using last 4 to predict next 8 seems a bit back to front
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Yeah, as said in the post, its meant to be used for just a prediction of the immediate GW. Just thought I'd test it out and stretch the prediction to the next 8 GWs. Early days. 🙂
Oh and btw, mate, your trade offer in fantrax 😆 Come on! 😉-
😆 It was just a starting point to get you thinking. Take a look at my team and see what interests you.
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I think even if I accidentally accepted the trade it would've been vetoed. 😀
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If anyone is interested:
http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20151112/international-watch-gunners-in-action -
Pelle + KDB + Ayew > Aguero + Mata + Alli
Not at the same time though. Any suggestions?-
KdB -> Mata screams regret 😛
Whats the rest of your mid/attack?
Bolasie, Mahrez, Ighalo are all nice cheap options.
I think selling Pelle + Ayew will work out for ya.-
Thanks.
KDB, Sanchez, Mahrez, Ayew, Willian
Pelle, Lukaku, Vardy
I have Smalling but won't downgrade unless necessary. 1.1 itb-
Ah, your money is quite evenly distributed..
Can you do:
Ayew + Pelle + Sanchez
to
Alli + Aguero + Ozil ?-
I certain can. But not sure if selling Sanchez is a good idea. Can do KDB to Silva also by downgrading Cedric to 4.0.
My def is Smalling, Bellerin, Cedric, Moreno, Richards.. I don't actually need Cedric.-
Ooh yeah that could be a good workaround, sounds good Live Lad 🙂
Your defence is decent enough that you can go with the 4.0 🙂-
Thanks a lot mate!
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Np 🙂
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Baines ownership
2.5%
😎-
What is cool about that?
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take a guess
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You like to be one of the few who likes to lose?
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Lowest ever Baines ownership recorded.
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Not many people with that luxury to own him.
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Wow, Coleman's up on 8.7% :O
Us Irish must be picking him en masse..
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Stop voting! 😡
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+1
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❓
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Looks like someone has unlimited use of the upvote. Where the hell are the mods when you need em?
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busy
upvoting
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You made a funny. Embrace the upvotes
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It wasn't particularly funny, nor in any way accurate.
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As below, dont take it as a personal dig was a light hearted comment at least thats how i interpreted it
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Daily mail linking barce with......**drumroll**......Jamie Vardy
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even Kuyt was a more realistic rumour than Vardy to go there
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LOL@DailyMail. Etc, etc.
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😯
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*closes multiple upvote buttons and logs off...
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Ha...the less-than-serious seem posts seem to be getting the most votes. Easily pleased at least. I'll end up a super Mod at this rate.
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You have many fans here.
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You could do with a new page soon 😉
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So many lurkers..
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Early thoughts, provided there are no injuries, 1 FT (had 2, but just had to get Ozil for Payet):
1. Pelle > Lukaku (both inconsistent and unreliable imo)
2. Kolarov > Dann (can play Bellerin, VdV, Naughton at the back if not)
3. Kolarov + Pelle > RBennet/Simpson + Aguero for -4
4. Save-
If both options in number 1 are both inconsistent and unreliable why are you even considering it?
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4 or 1. Don't need Kun so early.
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This could be the liverpool side in feb
------------------sturridge------
Coutinho---firmino-----Sane
-----------gundogan-hendo-
This could also be the Liverpool side in Feb:
Origi
Ibe - Firmino - Milner
Can - Hendo-
My Glass 3/4 full
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My glass is smashed on the floor, so about 2% full.
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🙂
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that's more like it.
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Strurridge will be injured 😉
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I doubt Gündogan will leave Borussia.
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Defence looks a bit ropey.
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Few gaps..
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Liverpool fans hey. Simultaneously stuck in the past and looking to the future. No supporters of any team make more 'this is what we'll look like one day' prophecies.
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Sorry but United and Arsenal fans during the transfer window are equally as ridiculous 😛
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Payet to Deulefou alone won't allow me to upgrade Pelle to Aguero. Nor will KDB to Ozil.
I have 2 FTs and was planning on doing the Payet one this week then KDB and Pelle next, but it might be worth doing Payet and KDB BOTH this week? Ozil v wba is better than KDB v LIV, right?
I'd have no City forwards for this GW but I could survive.-
Ozil vs wba is better than KdB vs Liverpool, but I still wouldn't sell KdB personally.
Payet -> Bolasie?-
It won't free up enough unless it's a 4m, and i'm 3-5-2 at the moment. The alternative would be Sanchez to Ozil, and that seems too risky. Sanchez more explosive than KDB, with better fixtures for the next 4.
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Sanchez to Ozil isn't a bad idea
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Even though Sanchez's underlying have lipped lately; the explosion is always lurking
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Of course, but when Ozil is getting 6 points plus a game i'd rather have him instead of waiting for one of Sanchez's explosions.
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Yeah i've toyed with it. 2.5m difference between the two is a lot, for their current outputs. And KDB could go points crazy once Silva and Kun are back to help him.
The good news in all of this is the template is being shattered a little with a few injuries/returns, which is always good.-
The template is being shattered quite a lot
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Ozil is a better "cover" (ugh, I know) for Sanchez than say, Sterling/Yaya are for KdB/Silva though imo, especially with Sanchez looking so jaded (those that watched the match last night said he was jaded looking and he played the full 90..)
I'd go down that route rather than going without City, but I wouldn't begrudge you if you did KdB to Ozil and doubled up on the Arsenal mids.
I personally have KdB, Sanchez and Ozil..-
Wow, strong. And plans for Aguero too?
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WC in 2 weeks 🙂
Thinking Aguero - Vardy - Ighalo-
Ah there you go - nice. I'll be 3-5-2 with Kun and Lukaku, but will try and maybe look to get Ayew out and Kane in to switch to 3-4-3 within the next 4/5 weeks.
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Sounds like a good plan BK 🙂
I just got Lukaku in for a hit 😛
Best of luck with it 😀-
Lukaku was my Aguero switch 4 weeks back. Was unlucky v United and Arsenal, but it's working out now.
You too.
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How about Payet--->Ozil this week, KDB + Pelle ----> Aguero + Deulofeu next week?
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You can't afford that right? Silly me.
If you think of KDB--->Ozil as the FT, and Payet--->Deulofeu as the -4, that could work out. 😉
I rate Ozil very highly, and think he's one of the best options for this week.-
Ah no i can certainly afford that too. It's just it'd be silly not to have Deulefou for the AST fixture. I know they'll tighten up a little but they still conceded a lot of chances v City, and Lukaku and GD are in such form!
I think really it's just whether i want to go without City this week or not...
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Both Soton and City have given me worries the last couple of games.
KdB will shoot from all barrels once Kun is back. Pelle just needs to go.-
Yeah Pelle to Aguero is a no-brainer in the next fortnight. Pelle's gonna be one of those guys that you just need to suck up the odd time he does well, knowing that he'll have too many peaks and troughs to want to own.
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So. Normal hostile service resumed. 😕
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Reported.
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Hostility? :O
If anything I was finding this place too positive this morning with all of that hostile upvoting.. -
1 person hardly counts. 😉
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No. But there are actually more than a dozen ...
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I think you should take people's opinions on your numbers less seriously. It's rare that anyone intends anything with hostility.
Some people find them useful, others cryptic and baseless. It's no reflection on you as a person or a contributor.-
You are almost certainly right. I just hate it when people misread my intentions. Sorry.
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I can't speak for Jafa but I imagine everyone knows that you only do it with the intention of helping those that ask. And your generosity with advice is widely acknowledged and appreciated by all.
Honestly, try to see it as 'imitation is flattery' rather than a dig on you. We all know you're a decent chap.-
This, we love ya Doos 🙂
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+1
Group hug 🙂
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Cheers, Black Knights. Put a smile on my face. 🙂
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Good stuff.
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+1
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Me and Doosra have very different playing styles, so the route he goes down isn't always useful for me personally, but he obviously has good intentions and is of great help for those that play that way-
Agree with this
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Those that matter understand that you are trying to help. Don't let them get you down. It's Friday the 13th!
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Thanks, Mad_Beer!!! 😀
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I find your stats tables and tickers very usufull.
Keep up the good work! -
You're the most loved poster on here Doos, a few months ago someone asked who was the best poster on here, and you won the vote by a huge margin (we won't speak about my results...). The reaction on here during, and after, your illness showed what we all think of you.
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+42
"Haters gonna hate" -
+1
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+1
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+1
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International breaks brings out the weird in people.
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Wot? You can't be serious right?
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He needs to dry his eyes.
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for anyone looking at bringing in Deulofeu...
http://toffeeweb.com/season/15-16/news/31156.html-
Wow, nice!
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It's friday, I'm in love
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Good for you. Make it count! 🙂
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I hope you have a great day Doos 😀
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Firmino? 🙂
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I'm not even using him on FIFA
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Now that's just silly, he's fantastic in FIFA.. 😛
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I play Coutinho, Hendo and Milner with Pool i midfield
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MILNER?!?!
*collapses*-
😉
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🙂
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Wanted to bring in Barkley then lost my head and went for Ozil. In hindsight a better move
..Still need to sort out my defence mind, nothing worth a -4 though. Agreed??!
Gomes Schmeichel
Kolarov Moreno Jones Cresswell Francis
KDB Ozil Mahrez Sanchez Westwood
Vardy Ighalo Pelle -
Is Vardy injured? Is he banned for a game? What has he done?
How did I miss this...-
Nothing more than a knock, he'll be fine
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He stuck his middle finger up at the linesman and shouted "F@ck OFF!".
Also picked up a knock.
Should play 90 minutes and match RvN's record so. -
Chat sh*t, get banged
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Knock
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Who's there?
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😀
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Firmino...
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Firmino who?
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Stop voting - Mod-dom do I not want. 😡
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*attention seeker alarm*
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