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25 November 2015 1763 comments
Tom Fenley Tom Fenley
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Our Wednesday Weekly Shop regular is rolled out this evening, as we assess the player lists of our partner games to pinpoint the likely targets that will make up our weekend lineups.

The player analysis is split into two sections: I’ll break down the key targets that no squad can do without in “Better Buys”, before seeking out those one-shot “Poundstretcher” prospects that can provide us points, whilst freeing up funds.

For this week’s selection, we’re scanning the players lists in our two partner games – FantasyBet and Premier Punt.

Better Buys

Manuel Pellegrini will be looking closely at his defence after the 4-1 rout against Liverpool. Joe Hart (FantasyBet 5.5m, Premier Punt 8.8m) was the only member of the backline to shine, making six saves to keep the score relatively respectable, though with Nicolas Otamendi surely set to return and Vincent Kompany edging towards a comeback, City could be a little more resolute this time around, given that visitors Southampton are missing top scorer Graziano Pelle due to suspension.

Despite his defensive lapse leading to Jermain Defoe’s winning goal on Monday night, . Scott Dann (FantasyBet 5m, Premier Punt 7.8m) remains capable of picking up points at both ends of the pitch. Opponents Newcastle visit Selhurst Park having scored just twice on the road in six outings, making a double-up with Wayne Hennessey (FantasyBet 4m, Premier Punt 5.5m) a viable tactic as Alan Pardew looks to get one over his former club.

Philippe Coutinho (FantasyBet 8m, Premier Punt 11.8m) has four goals and an assist in Liverpool’s last three matches, demonstrating Jurgen Klopp’s positive influence on the Brazilian. If fit, a home tie against a Swansea side that have been lacklustre in recent weeks offers a chance to add to that record, particularly when there are signs that the Brazilian is striking up a highly effective partnership with compatriot Roberto Firmino (FantasyBet 8.5m, Premier Punt, Forward 11.5m) for the Merseysiders.

Romelu Lukaku, Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy have all been in excellent form of late, which has somewhat kept Olivier Giroud’s (FantasyBet 9m, Premier Punt 12.3m) recent exploits off the radar. The Frenchman has four goals in five league matches for Arsenal and, given that he has scored in four consecutive away outings, a visit to Norwich makes the Gunners striker a differential worth considering.

Poundstretchers

After an inauspicious start to the season, Jack Butland (FantasyBet 4.5m, Premier Punt 6.8m) now has a formidable five shut-outs in six appearances for Stoke. The keeper travels to a Sunderland side struggling to find an attacking edge in front of their own fans – the Wearsiders have managed only 58 attempts at home so far, the joint worst record in the league. Only Costel Pantilimon (54) has made more saves than the Potters’ number one (51), so a goalless draw would not be a surprise here.

Alberto Moreno (FantasyBet 5m, Premier Punt 7.5m) offers a secure route into the Liverpool backline as they welcome a Swansea team that have failed to net in three of their last five – only Aston Villa (22) have had less than the Swans 23 shots in the box over that run. As highlighted in the Scout Squad article, the left-back is providing promising numbers, with his frequency of key passes (one every 40 minutes) the best in the league for defenders.

Yohan Cabaye (FantasyBet 6.5m, Premier Punt 7.9m) and Yannick Bolasie (FantasyBet 6.5m, Premier Punt 7.6m) may have blanked against Sunderland but they still look to be worth investment against Newcastle at those prices – Palace fired 19 attempts last Monday and were unlucky not to find the net. Another budget midfield option with a potentially profitable home fixture is Manuel Lanzini (FantasyBet 5.5m, Premier Punt 7.9m). The Argentine’s consolation at Spurs took his tally to three goals in the last five Gameweeks ahead of a home encounter with West Brom.

Watford’s Odion Ighalo (FantasyBet 5m, Premier Punt 7.4m) is the stand out striker in the budget category this week. The Nigerian travels to Aston Villa with seven goals and three assists to his name already and is heavily involved in most of the Hornets’ attacking play. Given that Villa have conceded 11 times in their last five outings, Ighalo looks a likely source of points once again.

These are the contenders for my weekly contest lineups heading into the weekend. I’ll return on Friday with a further assessment of this week’s partner games – FantasyBet and Premier Punt, as I continue my quest for profit in the 2015/16 campaign.

1,763 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Alittude
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Smalling to rojo a bad move? Need the funds to get in lukaku. Could do Dawson to Simpson instead but would like to keep him for his fixtures soon.

    1. EmreCan Hustle
      10 years, 11 months ago

      I don't like the idea, but if you have to raise funds, I don't see many better options.

      1. Alittude
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers Eden, I could downgrade alder or bellerin but would have to get a worse defender in so don't know if it's worth it.

  2. EmreCan Hustle
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Good morning DZ.

    My defense needs sorting out. Need help.

    Myhill Hennessey
    Sagna Coleman Bertrand Gabriel Simpson

    0.4m and 1FT.

    Sagna likely to start?
    Thoughts on Gabriel? I thought he was going to be a regular soon when I got him in.

    Thanks.

    1. Joggers Nipple
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Gks and Bert, Coleman and Simpson are fine

      Gabriel to Moreno perhaps?

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        10 years, 11 months ago

        This is what I'm thinking. I'm not sure who's less likely to play between Sagna and Gabriel. Cheers SAB.

  3. Eden Hazardous
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Re: How did KDB and Sterling play?

    1. Eden Hazardous
      10 years, 11 months ago

      And Navas?

    2. EmreCan Hustle
      10 years, 11 months ago

      KDB set up a tap in for Sterling which he missed. Both were pretty bad. Navas was no different except he got booked as well.

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Do you think Sterling will start against SOT?

        1. EmreCan Hustle
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Yes. He was benched at the start last night. Came on for Kun in the 69th minute.

          1. Eden Hazardous
            10 years, 11 months ago

            If Sterling could learn to finish , he would be among the best in the world 🙁

            1. EmreCan Hustle
              10 years, 11 months ago

              Last night's miss suggests he's going backwards.

            2. Acquafresca
              10 years, 11 months ago

              That's a ridiculous statement. Nowhere near that level.

              1. Eden Hazardous
                10 years, 11 months ago

                I meant top 10 in the PL kind of level

                1. Acquafresca
                  10 years, 11 months ago

                  Select your words better 😆

                  World and Prem are two different things.

                  But he's still pretty far off at his current level.

                  1. Eden Hazardous
                    10 years, 11 months ago

                    He is easily among top 20 in the PL atm

                    1. Acquafresca
                      10 years, 11 months ago

                      Top 20 attackers probably, but he's still woeful in the final third.

                      1. Eden Hazardous
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        He makes up for his finishing by his movement - he is easily among top 20 in the PL (all players , not only attackers)

                      2. Acquafresca
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        Not top 20 among all players. I can easily name 20 better.

                      3. Eden Hazardous
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        Please do....

                      4. Acquafresca
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        You're so childish...

                        I'd rather not get into it because from reading most of your posts you're always looking to argue just for the sake of arguing.

                      5. Eden Hazardous
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        I just think Sterling is underrated and we let our personal biases rule our judgement of a player

                      6. Acquafresca
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        He's just another overrated young English player with an overpaid salary. Not the first and won't be the last.

                      7. Eden Hazardous
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        He is one of the only 4-5 English players I like

                      8. Eden Hazardous
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        Along with Dier , Alli and Walcott

                      9. Acquafresca
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        Nothing wrong with liking him. He's just nothing special in terms of talent. Pace, good dribbling, and lack of finishing.

                      10. Eden Hazardous
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        And the my favourite English player - HARRY 😀

                      11. Eden Hazardous
                        10 years, 11 months ago

                        I think he is an exciting player and has the potential to become really good

                  2. Eden Hazardous
                    10 years, 11 months ago

                    He needs to improve his left leg shooting and ball control

            3. Just A Hat
              10 years, 11 months ago

              well you've lost the plot

        2. I Member
          10 years, 11 months ago

          yes

          1. Eden Hazardous
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Thanks!

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Thank you TM 🙂

  4. Eden Hazardous
    10 years, 11 months ago

    I am predicting an Arsenal mauling of Norwich this week

    1. Jape
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Sanchez hattie hopefully and Ozil top assist all three 😉

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Ozil assists all 3 but FPL awards none 😉

        1. Jape
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Nooooo, don't say that!

          A Cech assist would make it that much sweeter haha

        2. EmreCan Hustle
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Awarded to Lukaku instead 😉

          1. Eden Hazardous
            10 years, 11 months ago

            *Bellerin

  5. donelshinoda
    10 years, 11 months ago

    hi guys, do you think it will worth to take hit to get Kane this week (vs CHE), or wait for next week and let his price rises? Thank you.

    My front 8 are :

    lanzini, barkley, mahrez, sanchez, de bruyne

    Benteke, lukaku, vardy

    1. Acquafresca
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Wait.

      1. donelshinoda
        10 years, 11 months ago

        thanks mate!

    2. Jape
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Wait it out

      1. donelshinoda
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Thanks pal!

        1. Jape
          10 years, 11 months ago

          🙂

  6. Jape
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Sanchez (c) this week over Lukaku is so so tempting

    1. Eden Hazardous
      10 years, 11 months ago

      I am on Sanchez(c) atm

      1. Jape
        10 years, 11 months ago

        I'm currently on Lukaku, but might switch to Sanchez on Friday. Two good options

        1. donelshinoda
          10 years, 11 months ago

          I think Lukaku is good for leaders as he offers consistency, Sanchez will be good for chasers as he might explode any time 🙂

          1. Jape
            10 years, 11 months ago

            True, downside is though that if he doesn't explode then we fall even further behind haha

  7. Sushant
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Kompany+KDB+Pelle to Moreno+Coutinho+Aguero for -8?

    1. Jape
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Nope. Just downgrade Komapny if the rest of your defense is good.

      1. Jape
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Oh and upgrade Pelle to either Lukaku or Kane

  8. gbpearce - AMERICAN DYCHO
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Who would you bench?

    A) Firmino (SWA)
    B) Barkley (bou)
    C) Mahrez (MUN)

    Currently on C as I have Vardy also

    1. Eden Hazardous
      10 years, 11 months ago

      A or C

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Preferably A

    2. Acquafresca
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Assuming you just bought A and considering form and fixture, definitely not A.

      Either Barkley or Mahrez for me. Probably Mahrez, just.

      1. gbpearce - AMERICAN DYCHO
        10 years, 11 months ago

        cheers acqua, was thinking the same.
        have had barkley for a while
        and I think Mahrez would hand over a pen to Vardy.

        Thanks my logic anyhoo

        1. Acquafresca
          10 years, 11 months ago

          If they win a PK 100% Vardy takes it.

    3. Zasa
      10 years, 11 months ago

      C, imo.

  9. money face bandwagon
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Ozil(c) about right

    1. Jape
      10 years, 11 months ago

      What're your other options?

      1. money face bandwagon
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Sanchez lukaku aguero kane in that order i think!

        1. Jape
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Ok fair enough. Best of luck 😀

          1. money face bandwagon
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Thank you! U too 🙂

    2. Acquafresca
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Good shout. Very dangerous mid-week.

      1. money face bandwagon
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Between him and sanchez..i think i will choose consistency

        1. Acquafresca
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Sanchez for explosiveness, Ozil for consistency.

          Exactly what you said.

          1. money face bandwagon
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Cheers 🙂

  10. 42towels
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Anyone considering selling KDB should atleast take a look at the Juve match before deciding.
    Think he's the best crosser in the league right now, even if he's not as silky as Ozil.

    1. Acquafresca
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Nowhere near Ozil in terms of passing. Despite the game, he's been quite poor for a 10+ mid.

      1. 42towels
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Not disagreeing. Just think he hasnt been getting points because City havent been converting. With Aguero back...

      1. 42towels
        10 years, 11 months ago

        I'd bet that xA portion will increase a lot with Aguero back.

        1. Eden Hazardous
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Doesn't work like that

          1. 42towels
            10 years, 11 months ago

            You dont think KDB's key passes will increase with Aguero back?

            1. Eden Hazardous
              10 years, 11 months ago

              Maybe but his xA wont as xA don't care what the striker does after recievin the ball (except ball control)

              There might be a minimal increase but not very much

              1. 42towels
                10 years, 11 months ago

                Key Passes doesnt care what the striker does either. I think Key Passes and location of the pass are main drivers of xA. In members stats, compare KDB with and without Aguero and you'll see the difference.

    2. Jape
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Giving him this weekend and then probably downgrading

    3. kalmoffit
      10 years, 11 months ago

      I want to hold on. Really like the look of him. Should have had some points recently but for Sterling.

    4. money face bandwagon
      10 years, 11 months ago

      On wc and downgrading. Not saying that he is not a gd option but for some1 that i will not captain over aguero and with the likes of coutinho ozil etc performing better at a lower price i will sell kdb

      1. 42towels
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Think that's smart if you have Aguero. If not, I wouldnt be losing KDB just yet.

        1. SomewhatPleasing
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 years, 11 months ago

          I have 3 weeks to look at him further. Have Kun also and not happy with the double up. Planning to shift Igloo then and downgrade KDB or Sanchez depending on what I see over the 3

  11. Eden Hazardous
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Which player do you like the most the most to watch? Not the best player but the player whose flair is best 🙂

    Eden Hazard for me

    1. Acquafresca
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Alexis Sanchez.

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Good shout although he gets dispossessed very frequently , his dribbling and footwork areawesome 😀

        1. Acquafresca
          10 years, 11 months ago

          He only gets dispossessed because he is constantly running at defenders, and eventually it happens. His work rate is like no other in the league.

          1. Eden Hazardous
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Yup yup - Sanchez will win you guys the league this season 😀

            KDB will lose the league for Man City 😛

            1. Penang Sandman
              10 years, 11 months ago

              duhh

    2. Transient Anus
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Coutinho ozil alexis

    3. I Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Hazard, Silva, Cazorla all excellent to watch but Ozil just edges it for me. Effortlessly brilliant technique, magical vision and precision.

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Watching Arsenal play is the best thing in life - Sanchez , Cazorla and Ozil...........

    4. Jape
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Doesn't have much flair, but I do like watching Vardy.

        1. Jape
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Haha 😉 Silva is also another one. He's a little magician

    5. kalmoffit
      10 years, 11 months ago

      I like Mahrez at the. moment.

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        I have never liked Mahrez as such - maybe I am missing something

        1. Acquafresca
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Much better than Sterling this season 😉

    6. Zasa
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Alexis numero uno, followed by Coutinho & Agüero.

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Hazard at his best?

        1. Zasa
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Maybe 😉 & yeah, I saw the Caley charts. Nice one.

          1. Eden Hazardous
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Changed your opinion on KDB now?

            1. Zasa
              10 years, 11 months ago

              Nope 🙂

              1. Eden Hazardous
                10 years, 11 months ago

                I hate KDB 😉
                ...and at the same time I am jealous 😛

    7. Gloria Kanchelskis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Silva and Sanchez

    8. donelshinoda
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Martial? 🙂

      1. kalmoffit
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Geoff Cameron?

    9. CB07
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Cazorla, his ability to turn away from tacklers and spray a pass never ceases to amaze me!

  12. Transient Anus
    10 years, 11 months ago

    My teams too sexy for this game too sexy for this game so sexy its a shame

    Gomes
    bellerin kolarov cedric
    san(c)hez ozil firmino mahrez
    kane lukaku vardy

    Crap crap crap crap

    1. Acquafresca
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Tasty. Like the Firmino pick.

      Any hits Champ?

      1. Transient Anus
        10 years, 11 months ago

        No hits mate. Ozil and firmino in for free. Kun will burn me no doubt. Cant sell any of these strikers though

        1. Acquafresca
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Nice. Who did you sell?

          I was looking at Mane > Firmino (-4) but decided against it with Komp ruled out and AVL(H) next week.

          This is me ATM:

          Butland
          Kolarov Rojo Ward
          Alexis Ozil Mane Mahrez
          Aguero Lukaku Vardy

          1. Transient Anus
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Mane amd kdb

            Looks good but no kane is scary

            1. Acquafresca
              10 years, 11 months ago

              Yeah might look at shipping Vardy in a couple of weeks for Kane, hopefully Chelsea and Pulis can keep him quiet.

    2. Joggers Nipple
      10 years, 11 months ago

      i like the bench, have you been copying me?

    3. Arvin-ation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Noice.

    4. Gloria Kanchelskis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      We have the same bench 😆

    5. Zasa
      10 years, 11 months ago

      I'm so jelly about the Firm pick.

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Zasa , did you see Caley's xG + xA tables he posted on twitter?

    6. Gloria Kanchelskis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Ado you prefer Firmino over Coutinho or was it a price thing?

      1. Transient Anus
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Prefer firmino. I think. Close call

        1. Arvin-ation
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 years, 11 months ago

          You reckon he'll start every week Champ? Looking at bringing him in this week too.

          1. Transient Anus
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Been improving every game. Now he has arrived. Dunno abouty every week but key player no doubt

  13. I Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Begovic
    Kolarov, Rojo, Dawson
    Sanchez (c), Ozil, Mahrez, Bolasie
    Aguero, Lukaku (v), Ayoze

    McCarthy, Davis, Williams, Targett

    0 FT 3.7 ITB

    A) GW14: Ayoze -> Ighalo (-4)
    GW15: Kolarov -> Moreno
    GW16: Ighalo -> Kane

    B) GW14: play Ayoze
    GW15: Kolarov + Ayoze -> Moreno + Kane (-4)

    1. Joggers Nipple
      10 years, 11 months ago

      b

  14. Arvin-ation
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Popular player options ranked for GW14's specific fixtures. Ranked by a little model I made up.

    Kane: 16.52
    Ozil: 13.72
    Lukaku: 13.50
    Ighalo: 13.06
    Firmino: 13.04

    Coutinho: 11.60
    Giroud: 11.40
    Vardy: 11.04

    Mane: 8.09

    First time Vardy's dropped out of the top 3, expectedly due to United's tight defence.

    The model churned out some decent predictions/results last GW (GW 12). Quite happy with it.

    Model Score/Rank for the GW----GW 13 FPL Points

    Kane: 17.40------ 13
    Ozil: 15.65---------8
    Vardy: 14.63------7
    Giroud: 12.31-----7
    Lukaku: 11.27---12
    .
    .
    Mane: 8.37--------1
    Sanchez: 7.84----1
    .

    .
    Pelle: 2.679-------1

    The Predicted score from the model is not a predicted FPL score btw. Its simply a score churned out by the model for a specific player for a particular GW against a particular opponent, its helpful to rank players I suppose. Higher number = Better prospect for FPL points in the GW.

    Been using it to evaluate my captaincy & transfer decisions the last 2 weeks. Kane turned out alright this week. 😀

    Lukaku an obvious blip, but that's mainly down to Aston Villa's surprisingly decent defensive statistics, and the fact that at the end of the day it is a statistical model and has its own limitations. 🙂

    Admittedly, I haven't found a way around a little kink in the model - its over reliance on a player's Shot On Target %. A player's scores are quite heavily appropriated by their Shot on Target %s under this model. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing, on one hand you aren't scoring if you aren't getting it on target so its pretty important. However, a player can have a lower SoT% yet take a lot more shots and still be a good prospect for goals & FPL points. Still figuring this one out...early days for the model though. 🙂

    1. Eden Hazardous
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Sanchez?

      I think you are putting a little too much weight on SoT

      1. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Its not really the weighting as compared as compared to the appropriation from SoT% in one of the components of the model. I'm tyring to fix that atm. Rules out some great options, namely Sanchez...Sanchez's score is kak since he has a crap SoT%. I think its around 6. something.

        1. Eden Hazardous
          10 years, 11 months ago

          The thing is with Sanchez all his shots come from decent positions , his xGs is highest in the league

          1. Arvin-ation
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            10 years, 11 months ago

            I'm not saying my model says Sanchez is kak, therefore Sanchez is crap.

            I believe he's a great option, there's an obvious flaw in the model which results in players like Sanchez suffering, just haven't figured out how to fix it yet. 🙂

            He's also suffering from a lack of Big Chances though, and that's not my model's fault, mainly his performance. His Shots in the Box are also lower than usual atm.

            1. Eden Hazardous
              10 years, 11 months ago

              Ah...that's it - Big Chances Created is a vague term as the ball going a little bit left or right by 2 inches makes a 'Chance Created' to 'Big Chance Created'

              xG and xA are better measures for the Quality of Chances imo

              1. Arvin-ation
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                10 years, 11 months ago

                The model doesn't consider Big Chances Created?
                I'm talking about Big Chances as in received by the player.

                xG and xA, I'm not familiar with and I wouldn't know how to use them. 🙂

    2. 42towels
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Nice work! What's Aguero's score for this week?

      1. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        That's tough to calculate since my model tries to capture most recent form and so only takes into account stats for the LAST 4 GAME WEEKS for a player and their opponent.

        Will see if I can come up with an estimate score based on Aguero's last 4 matches played, rather than last 4 GWs. 🙂

        Gimme a bit.

        1. 42towels
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Cheers, was just wondering if you didnt post it because it was lower than others. Dont really care for this week - dont have him, not getting him. 😛

          1. Arvin-ation
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Aguero's score for this week, based on last 4 matches played:

            10.77

            Saint's defensive stats have actually been pretty good last 4 weeks. Probably because they've faced crap teams though.

            1. 42towels
              10 years, 11 months ago

              Thanks, whether right or wrong, you made me feel better about not owning him. 🙂

    3. Acquafresca
      10 years, 11 months ago

      No Alexis is worrying.

      1. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Last paragraph in the TLDR post kinda talks about a kink in the model. Basically, it rules out certain FPL options who don't hit the target as often as you'd like but could still be great options.

        Really, the only two here are Sanchez and Pelle, but Pelle is actually crap. Sanchez unfortunately suffers under this model...I'm trying to come up with a way to get around this and reduce the appropriaton from Shot On Target%, but I'm yet to find a way.

        This week Sanchez's score is about 6.70. Wouldn't read too much into that though.

        1. Eden Hazardous
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Maybe put more emphasis on SiTB , it will make up for Sanchez' low SoT %

        2. Acquafresca
          10 years, 11 months ago

          I see. SoT shouldn't really be a factor though should it? Sanchez shoots from everywhere, means that his SoT % might be fairly low, but also means he is always looking to score.

          1. Arvin-ation
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Nah, I think its important, you can't score if you don't hit the target, but its importance could probably be reduced as a factor in the model.

            Sanchez's SoT% is actually usually a lot higher, it seems to have dipped recently. Over the last 4 GWs its been around 20%, take last season for example, I believe it was around 40% which is pretty decent.

            His number of shots in the box have also dipped a little, and can't really overcome his SoT% atm.

            Hoping to find a way so he doesn't suffer too much under this model...but atm haven't figured out a way yet.

    4. NATSTER
      10 years, 11 months ago

      No Sanchez in the top list for this week?

      1. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        See above. 🙂

    5. Gloria Kanchelskis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Interesting looking model - thanks for sharing.

      It supports my pln to bench Mane but ...
      Will still keep the armband on Lukaku though

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        8.09 is decent no?

        1. Gloria Kanchelskis
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 years, 11 months ago

          I think Sanchez is a blip and Mahrez isn't shown. The rest of my front 8 got higher scores than Mane and I'm nervous with Hart a doubt I may have got it wrong 😆

        2. Arvin-ation
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 years, 11 months ago

          No, not really.

          "The Predicted score from the model is not a predicted FPL score btw. Its simply a score churned out by the model for a specific player for a particular GW against a particular opponent, its helpful to rank players I suppose. Higher number = Better prospect for FPL points in the GW."

          Its closer to the lower end of scores. Most weeks they range from 6 to around 15.

      2. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        No worries. Its still got some work needed, but its a fairly useful rough guide. 🙂

        City's defence has had the best defensive stats over the last 4, slightly better than United. Wouldn't expect Mane to score well under the model, or in real life! 🙂

        Mine's currently set on Lukaku too but undecided between Harry and Rom Rom. There's just some factors that a model can never effectively capture, and of course it can't take into account every single variable. I see Chelsea really tightening up at the back against Spurs, whilst Bouremouth are just awful.

        Good luck!

    6. Eden Hazardous
      10 years, 11 months ago

      One last question -

      If your model puts so much weight on SoT , why is Ozil second?

      1. Puyol Pants Up
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Good point, and where is King!?

        1. Eden Hazardous
          10 years, 11 months ago

          This^^^

          King's SoT are off the charts , even Coutinho's

          Arvin , can you run the numbers for King and Coutinho please?

          1. Arvin-ation
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Read it bud. Its based on Shot on Target % not Shots on Target, but will run 'em through. Gimme a sec.

      2. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        SoT%* not SoT.

        It appropriates a players' SiB VS opponent's SiB with their SoT%.

        1. Eden Hazardous
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Can you run the numbers for Coutinho and King for me please?

          1. Arvin-ation
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Coutinho's is already up. Doing King now.

            1. Arvin-ation
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              10 years, 11 months ago

              Oh my...I really need to find a way to replace SoT% with SoT ASAP. 😆

              King: 16.05

              Everton's defence has been shite over the last 4 though.

              1. Eden Hazardous
                10 years, 11 months ago

                😎

                And King is just 4.6m and classified as a mid

                Also , King has only played 2.5 MATCHES in the last 4 weeks

                1. Eden Hazardous
                  10 years, 11 months ago

                  King (c) ?

                  1. Arvin-ation
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    10 years, 11 months ago

                    Insanity!

        2. 42towels
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Aah, that's a huge difference. SoT% same as accuracy then?
          SoT could be a better predictor than Shot Accuracy I think.

          1. Arvin-ation
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Agreed. Thinking of a way to replace SoT% with SoT without messing the whole thing up.

            1. Eden Hazardous
              10 years, 11 months ago

              What is King's rating?

    7. AK ⭐
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Brilliant work as always Arvin.

      The model looks to be working well, obviously, people above have indicated that SoT might not be the best measure or maybe the weight is too much.

      Will it help if you used areas from where these shots were coming from?

      I did a post on Expected Goals (xG) Model I came up with and compared Vardy and Kane, Kane was ahead of him. Used Areas from where they have been getting the shots away from and also used the areas from where the opposition have been giving away shots from.

      1. AK ⭐
        10 years, 11 months ago

        here I found the image from Glover's site.

        http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--gsZPp1WoLw/UhzD17rzMFI/AAAAAAAAD0U/EimLlbg1tPo/s1600/ShotZonesImg.JPG

        He used to add weights to the areas, the probability of a goal being scored from each area. Maybe this could be helpful?

        1. Arvin-ation
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Interesting.

          Assuming it goes

          1. Zone A
          2. Zone B
          3. Zone C

          In probability?

          1. AK ⭐
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Zone A would be 0.38-0.45
            Zone B- 0.18-.023
            Zone C : 0.08-0.10

      2. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers AK. 🙂

        I'm not familiar with the xG and xA models mate. I'm not sure how I would quantify positions of shots as a factor under a model. Any ideas? Trying to keep it from being too complicated though, if not it'll take too long to compile the data and calculate the players' scores each week. 😛

        I think if I can remove the heavy appropriation from the SoT%/Shot Accuracy factor, and somehow factor in Shots on Target for a player it would work a lot better...hopefully I'll get an updated version up soon. 🙂

    8. Zasa
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Nice one mate, good to see Firm up there

      1. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers Zasa. Still needs some major tweaking...but a useful rough guide, I hope. 🙂

        Bringing him in this week mate? Think I might be doing that.

        1. Zasa
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Yeah, great approach though, I like it!

          I wish mate, nearly impossible to fit him in with LukeHarryKun 🙁 I'd get him in, Pool's fixtures are sublime.

    9. skeyrd
      10 years, 11 months ago

      really cool stuff, inspired me to get some data onto R and mess around with it

  15. NATSTER
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Not sure yet, but tempted to Sanchez (c)

    Hope Sanchez will do Suarez against Norwich this weekend.

    1. Acquafresca
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Agree, looks up for it doesn't he?

      1. FortunesAlwaysHiding
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        I can see this being a fail but I surely hope so too.

  16. FortunesAlwaysHiding
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Don't pour scorn on this chaps but is Oscar a good addition to a draft league squad at the expense of Moses? I am also looking to bring in Courtois next week. Good moves?

    1. Gloria Kanchelskis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Good move imo

    2. Zasa
      10 years, 11 months ago

      I'd go for it, way more upside in Oscar imo.

  17. Jape
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Right so do we think this is ready?

    Cech
    Ward / Smalling / Moreno
    Sanchez / Ozil / KDB / Mahrez
    Vardy / Kane / Lukaku

    Subs: Gomes / Rose / Dawson / Wanyama

    (c) is between Sanchez and Lukaku

    1. kalmoffit
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Looks ready. Shame that some of those subs can't get a game.

      1. Jape
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Thanks. Think i'll need to downgrade one or two

        1. kalmoffit
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Will depend on Aguero, I suppose.

    2. sleecc
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Looks good.

      1. Jape
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Thanks a lot

  18. La Roja
    10 years, 11 months ago

    So I see Kun was subbed around 70th min last night.

    I guess he will start vs Saints then, sub early again if they are leading

    1. Joggers Nipple
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Seems to fit with managers statement he cant yet do 3 x 90mins in a week. Would think a start is highly likley

      1. La Roja
        10 years, 11 months ago

        How did he play Sab? Looked any good?

        1. Joggers Nipple
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Sorry mate no idea, wrong time zone for Champs League

        2. Weasel Boy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Wasnt great I read.

  19. KANEGAROO
    10 years, 11 months ago

    G2G?

    Butland
    Nyom / Galloway / Dann

    Mahrez / KDB / Eriksen / Ozil / Firmino

    Lukaku / Giroud

    Subs: Myhill / Simpson / Smalling / Vardy

    or play Vardy bench one of the midfielder?

    1. kalmoffit
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Quite annoyed I sold Galloway.

  20. La Roja
    10 years, 11 months ago

    I am thinking to save FT here but not sure

    Myhill
    Sagna Souare Bellerin
    Sanchez Ozil Mahrez KDB Mane
    Lukaka (c) Vardy

    McCarthy* Rojo Pelle* Targett*

    1 FT

    A) KDB & Pelle out ➡ Kun & Gosling in -4
    B) Mane & Pelle out arrow: 4.5m & Kane in -4
    C) Save FT and play Mane since no Kompany and Mane Pelle next week vs Villa

    1. Acquafresca
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Probably save for now, unless you really want Kun. Then A.

      1. La Roja
        10 years, 11 months ago

        I am not sure if it's worth it Acqua.

        Basically I am swapping City attackers with -4 hit

        Plus Aguero game time is a worry

        But then again, couch that I have is very small too

        arrgghhh

        1. Acquafresca
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Sets you up for the future though? and you still get to keep Mane.

          KDB has been awful.

          Like I said close call. A or C.

          1. La Roja
            10 years, 11 months ago

            You might be right.

            I don't think KDB worth 10m above

    2. sleecc
      10 years, 11 months ago

      C

    3. Joggers Nipple
      10 years, 11 months ago

      I like A. Yes its for a hit but most will need one to get Kun in and by doing it this week you will be ahead of alot of others.

  21. PINKFISH (SANCTIONED AND GA…
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Louis Van Gaals' Army !

    Louis Van Gaals' Army !

    Roon (C) this week. Who's with me? 🙂

    1. La Roja
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Oh dear

    2. kalmoffit
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Got to be Navas(c) for me.

      1. PINKFISH (SANCTIONED AND GA…
        10 years, 11 months ago

        He's great but unfortunately Citeh's B team defense impacts his output now.

        The flow has gone from them Ya Ya back to his lazy ways and Kun, Sterling and KDB are wasting his creativity.

        I'm going Navas > Arny and rotating him with Bolasie as 4th and 5th mids.

    3. Zasa
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Color me intrigued https://media1.giphy.com/media/10vb8ZweGaz1C/200.gif

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Korean LVG 😯

      2. PINKFISH (SANCTIONED AND GA…
        10 years, 11 months ago

        🙂

  22. La Roja
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Anyone watched City game?

    KDB and Kun, how did they look?

    1. Eden Hazardous
      10 years, 11 months ago

      I heard that KDB was crap and Kun was non-existant but I haven't seen the match myself

  23. Eden Hazardous
    10 years, 11 months ago

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUqzK4yXAAACF1-.png

    Aguero is 0.94 xG + xA per 90 but doesn't qualify as he has played less than 700 minutes

    1. sleecc
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Raheem Sterling 😆

  24. Eden Hazardous
    10 years, 11 months ago

    King's rating is 16.05 in Arvin's Model 😎

    Does this you all guys are fools for not having King in your teams? 😛

    1. Eden Hazardous
      10 years, 11 months ago

      *this mean

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Gives you a chance to get back into the top million. 😛

      1. Acquafresca
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Ouch. Put some water on that burn.

        1. Eden Hazardous
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Did that....but still burning 🙁

      2. Lateriser 12
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Badum Tshhh

      3. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        🙁

      4. SUAREZ_MESSI_COUTINHO
        10 years, 11 months ago

        😀

    3. Puyol Pants Up
      10 years, 11 months ago

      No it means we are smart.

    4. kalmoffit
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Saw him against Newcastle. He could have played all night and not scored.

    5. Arvin-ation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      No, it just means the model has flaws that need to be looked at. 🙂

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        That's convenient 😕

        1. Arvin-ation
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 years, 11 months ago

          True nonetheless. Same applies to Kane's score. It should be up there but maybe a little too high due to appropriation from SoT%. He has the same benefits under my model as King, which is the same reason why Sanchez suffers.

  25. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    If isn't for Arvin. You wanna give it one last try?

    1. Zasa
      10 years, 11 months ago

      You guys break up? 🙁

      1. Lateriser 12
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Draft game trades..

        1. Arvin-ation
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 years, 11 months ago

          Or so we'd like you to believe...

          1. Lateriser 12
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Pieters + Payet = Jones + Arny

            1. Eden Hazardous
              10 years, 11 months ago

              Lol

              Jones + Arnie 100 times better

              1. Arvin-ation
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                10 years, 11 months ago

                Contrary to this, I'd reject that trade. 😛

                I think I've decided to keep hold of Payet mate, see how quickly he returns. Hopefully Doos is right.

                1. Lateriser 12
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  10 years, 11 months ago

                  Right then. No worries.

                  Cheers.

          2. Zasa
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Oooh feisty 😉

  26. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    morning dzzz, how we doing...still on a shocking run 🙁 (ranked over 1mil..never before sigh). have 2FT

    hennessey --- begovic
    janmaat moreno souare --- cedric simpson
    mahrez sanchez kdb yaya -- mane
    pelle vardy lukaku

    A: pelle + kdb >> kun + cheapie mid (gosling etc)..leave some cash to upgrade def
    B: pelle + kdb + janmaat >> kun + cheapie mid + rojo (-4)
    C: pelle + kdb >> kane + firmino

    Anything else?

    1. Manaf
      10 years, 11 months ago

      D. Pelle + Yaya/ Mane >> Kane + Cheapie

  27. johnbarnes
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Would you use a FT to do Pellé>Ighalo this week? Or just save and get Kane/Aguero with 2FT the following gw?

    1. Puyol Pants Up
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Pelle has to go. So I would.

      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 years, 11 months ago

        i am debating who to get..kane or kun

  28. Eden Hazardous
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Till Arvin's model ranked the template , it was fine and suddenly King comes to the top and it has flaws 😕

    #Hypocrisy

    1. Puyol Pants Up
      10 years, 11 months ago

      His model made him look better then Ozil, Lukaku, Coutinho etc.

      Surely you can see there is something wrong with that!? If King was the same price as those players, would you buy him?

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        No because his fixtures are abyssmal but if fixtures were good , he would be my 4th mid

        1. Puyol Pants Up
          10 years, 11 months ago

          So if he had good fixtures (keep in mind this is Bournemouth, so they don't really have a "good" fixture) would you buy him for 8.5?

          1. Eden Hazardous
            10 years, 11 months ago

            Yes

    2. Arvin-ation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Nonsense. I mentioned that it has flaws that needed to be fixed about 10 times in that post. Simply a rough guide. 🙂

      P.S.
      Kane's above King.

      1. Eden Hazardous
        10 years, 11 months ago

        Very close tho 😛

  29. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Thoughts on the Kun performance yesterday?

    1. Eden Hazardous
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Kun needs Silva

    2. kalmoffit
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Still waiting to hear from anyone that saw it.

    3. UnitednationsXI
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 years, 11 months ago

      kane or kun? who to get for pelle...will have yaya anyways for city "cover"

  30. AK ⭐
    10 years, 11 months ago

    Firmino nailed on for the next 4-6? What would be the team selection like when both Benteke and Sturridge are fit?

    1. Walsh
      10 years, 11 months ago

      Don't think he's nailed. The thought of Sturridge being fit makes me just chuckle. Useless exercise to attempt to figure said lineup out.