After checking out those sides with friendly upcoming fixtures over the next four-to-six Gameweeks, we now turn our attentions the ones with little to smile about. Sunderland appear to face a tough task to climb out of the bottom three over the next month, whilst Leicester and Tottenham’s top-four ambitions look set to be put to the test.
Sunderland
One of the positives for the Black Cats over the past few weeks has been their ability to find the net, but with showdowns against three of the tightest top five defences in terms of goals conceded (MCI, MUN, sou) in the next, six allied with trips to Liverpool and West Ham, Big Sam’s side could struggle for a cutting edge. There is some hope in those latter two matches, though, with both teams ranked in the top five for allowing the most shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, with the Reds conceding 10 times in their last four matches. Likewise, Crystal Palace have been poor at the back of late, shipping 11 goals in their last four, so there are at least a couple of matches where Jermain Defoe (5.2) could still prosper. In reality, though, the recent interest in Sunderland’s attack looks set to be quelled.
Even Allardyce is struggling to improve the fortunes of the Black Cats defence, with his side having failing to keep a clean sheet in their last nine matches. While Liverpool and Man United have both had their struggles in front of goal in recent weeks, they have each managed to create a respectable six big chances over the last four Gameweeks, and will expect to get amongst the goals against Sunderland. Man City present a hugely testing challenge next week, whilst Southampton have managed to score nine times in their last three home matches and West Ham are averaging two goals a game across their last three at Upton Park. Only the fixture at home to Palace stands a strong chance of producing a shut-out, and even then, it’s likely the Eagles will have a fully fit Emmanuel Adebayor and Yannick Bolasie to call upon by that point. Patrick van Aanholt (4.7) is an option, given his sensational goal scoring form but otherwise the Sunderland defence is unlikely to be worth any consideration.
Leicester
Claudio Ranieri has managed to turn the Foxes into a defensive juggernaut over the past month, with his side registering four clean sheets in their last five matches. Maintaining that form looks unlikely in the short-term, though, with Man City and Arsenal both expected to score at home to Leicester, while Liverpool also represent a tricky fixture. A clean sheet against the Reds can’t be totally ruled out, though, given Jurgen Klopp’s side have failed to score in four of their eight away matches with the German at the helm. The final three matches on the current slate do offer considerable hope, though, with West Brom and Norwich two of the weaker attacking teams in the Premier League, while there has been a definite regression in Watford’s final third statistics of late, with the Hornets managing just 20 shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, the joint-second worst record among all 20 clubs. Those who own the likes of Kasper Schmeichel (4.5) and Christian Fuchs (4.8) may hold tight until those easier fixtures come around, then.
From an attacking point of view, the schedule seems equally tricky. Man City and Arsenal have only allowed four big chances apiece in their last four matches, while West Brom and Watford have been fairly resolute at the back, conceding six goals each in their last four matches. As seen at Norwich last weekend, the Liverpool defence can be vulnerable, while the home clash against the Canaries is also a match-up that should be favourable for both Jamie Vardy (7.2) and Riyad Mahrez (7.1), particularly with it coming in a Gameweek where four sides have a blank. That alone could mean the pair earn a stay of execution in many Fantasy managers’ 15-man squads, but in general it’s perhaps unlikely we’ll see the duo return to their early-season form over the coming period.
Tottenham
While the form of both Harry Kane (10.0) and Dele Alli (5.7) means they’ll remain popular Fantasy Premier League (FPL) picks, Mauricio Pochettino’s side do face a slightly mixed run of fixtures. Spurs clash with both Man City and Arsenal in the next six, while they also have to travel to Upton Park. There are rays of light in those three fixtures, though – Arsenal have allowed the most shots from inside the box (41) over the last four Gameweeks, while West Ham aren’t far behind with 35, and City still remain erratic at the back without Vincent Kompany. In the short-term, encounters with Norwich and Watford could well prove profitable, with the match-up at Carrow Road, in particular, looking favourable with Alex Neil’s side allowing nine big chances over the last four Gameweeks, the second in the top-flight. The home clash with Swansea in Gameweek 27 could also offer profit at both ends.
Given that defensive lynchpin Jan Vertonghen has been sidelined for a number of weeks, the next six fixtures are probably slightly more torturous from a defensive point of view. Norwich have only failed to score in one of their 11 home matches and while Watford have only scored three goals in their last four matches, the considerable threat from Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney remains. It is also likely that City and Arsenal will be able to find the back of the net, given that Spurs have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Swansea have only managed 36 goal attempts in their last four matches, but have notched on six occasions. That fixture may offer a chance of a shut-out, although the trip to Upton Park looks destined to be a tough test for the Tottenham rearguard given the Hammers’ potency at home. Toby Alderweireld (6.2) may have to keep producing attacking points to justify his hefty price tag over this spell, although Kevin Wimmer, at just 4.6, could still emerge as a target should he cement a starting role alongside the Belgian in Vertonghen’s absence.
BE WARY OF…
Watford
After impressing defensively at the start of the season, Watford have now failed to register a shut-out in their last six. With upcoming matches against Chelsea, Tottenham and Leicester, three sides who rank among the top six for total goal attempts over the last four Gameweeks, they appear unlikely to improve that record. A trip to Old Trafford will also be testing, leaving only two matches (cpl, BOU) with a possible opportunity for a clean sheet. Even then, Bournemouth present a fairly tough match-up, having created eight big chances over the last four Gameweeks.
Odion Ighalo (6.4) returned to form with a goal and assist against Newcastle and scored an FA Cup winner earlier today, but with only the Bournemouth fixture looking favourable in the next six (CHE, tot, cpl, BOU, mun, LEI), some may even regard the Nigerian as dispensable at this point. The fact that Cherries clash comes in Gameweek 27 may help his cause, though, with four sides without a fixture that week.
Man City
With City now facing a blank in Gameweek 27, the prospects both in defence and attack have taken a hit. Following the favourable trip to Sunderland in Gameweek 24, Manuel Pellegrini’s men face home matches against Tottenham and Leicester, two pretty resilient defensive units. Clashes against Liverpool and, in particular, Aston Villa are pretty reasonable, though, so the in-form Sergio Aguero (13.5) should remain a hot property, although doubling up on the City attack may not hold quite so much appeal at this juncture.
City’s next six fixtures (sun, TOT, LEI, (blank), liv, AVL) are deemed the least favourable by our Season Ticker in terms of clean sheet potential, with only the Villa fixture truly favourable. With rotation also a concern in the full-back positions once Aleksandar Kolarov returns from a muscle injury, the upside of owning a City defender for the coming period looks pretty limited. The return of Vincent Kompany could strengthen their prospects, though, with the Belgian expected back in two weeks’ time.
Arsenal
It’s a mixed bag looking at the Gunners next six fixtures, with the promise of clean sheets strong against Bournemouth and Swansea, unlikely in head-to-heads with Leicester and Tottenham and a possibility against Southampton and Man United. FPL bosses face a slight quandary in whether to “stick or twist” with regards to members of the Arsenal backline, then. Given the price tags of Laurent Koscielny (6.2) and Hector Bellerin (6.1), attacking points may well be needed to justify their tags as premium defenders, though the return to fitness of midfielder Francis Coquelin should boost their clean sheet potential.
Southampton, Leicester, Man United and Tottenham all rank among the strongest defensive sides at the moment, so expectations for Arsenal attackers can’t be set too high over the coming period. Extra importance will be placed on the favourable match-ups against Bournemouth and Swansea, with the return to fitness of Alexis Sanchez (10.8) raising many questions as to the merits of owning Mesut Ozil (10.0): the fixtures are certainly not enticing enough to warrant holding two Gunners attacking assets. Sanchez served a timely reminder of his potential by bagging the winner against Burnley in the FA Cup Fourth Round today; Ozil has returned points in just one of his last five league starts.
