First up in our Group D analysis is Croatia. Ante Cacic’s men get their tournament underway against Turkey on Sunday June 12 at 2pm before facing up to Czech Republic five days later at 5pm and then going head-to-head with Spain at 8pm on Tuesday June 21.
Listed as second favourites to win their group, Croatia face a tough task to progress if they make it into the last 16 – should, as expected, they finish runners-up to Spain, they’d take on the winners of Group E in the first stage of the knockouts, which would pit them against the likes of Belgium or Italy.
Road to Qualification
Croatia finished second in qualifying Group H behind Italy, winning six and drawing three of their ten matches in a table that also included the likes of Norway and Bulgaria.
Their progress was far from plain sailing, though. Installed in the hotseat towards the end of the qualifying period after the dismissal of Niko Kovac, the inexperienced Cacic has been criticised for his tactics, with a recent friendly against Israel seeing him trial four different formations. He’s also had a public falling-out with Liverpool’s Dejan Lovren and has omitted the centre-half from his squad for the tournament.
Deducted one point due to their fans’ off-field behaviour, Croatia produced 20 goals over their ten group fixtures, with 11 of those strikes arriving in home matches against Azerbaijan and Norway. At the back, they conceded just five times and earned six clean sheets, shipping more than a single goal on one occasion.
Croatia have played five friendly matches over the last 12 months, winning four times – against Gibraltar 4-0, Russia 3-1, Israel 2-0, and Moldova (1-0 last week) – and drawing 1-1 with fellow-qualifiers Hungary. They head into Saturday’s clash against San Marino on the back of a run that’s seen them lose just once in the last 12 fixtures.
Most Appearances Danijel Subasic, Ivan Rakitic (10), Vedran Corluka, Darijo Srna, Domagoj Vida, Marcelo Brozovic, Ivan Perisic (9), Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Mario Mandzukic, Ivica Olic (8), Josip Pivaric, Andrej Kramaric (6)
Most goals Ivan Perisic (6), Marcelo Brozovic, Luka Modric, Andrej Kramaric (2)
Most assists Ivan Rakitic (4), Dario Srna (3), Ivica Olic (2)
The Key Targets
Priced at 7.5 apiece in the Uefa game, midfield pair Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic look the top two contenders for those eyeing up Croatia’s main men.
Both players make a convincing case for consideration. Inter winger Perisic fired more attempts on goal than any team-mate during qualifying and registered more than three times the number of shots inside the box than Rakitic. As a result, he ended the campaign as top scorer, with six strikes, and has continued that form in recent friendlies, producing a goal and two assists over the last three matches.
Although Rakitic scored just once by comparison, he managed just two attempts less than Perisic over the group matches, though most of his threat is from long distance. The Barcelona man is Croatia’s chief source of creativity, though – his 35 key passes is almost double the number of Perisic and Luka Modric combined, whilst he’s the undisputed number one for dead-ball duties and should provide crosses aplenty, which boosts his DraftKings potential.
Up top, spot-kick taker Mario Mandzukic fired more efforts inside the box than any Croatia player during the qualifiers but found the net on just one occasion. Priced at 8.0 in the Uefa game, he looks guaranteed to start regardless of whether Cacic plays one or two up top and could be worth considering if he can rediscover the form that produced 13 goals and five assists for Juventus in 2015/16.
At the back, Darijo Srna looks the likeliest source of points at both ends of the pitch, though comes in at a pricey 6.0 in the Uefa game. Second only to Rakitic for both key passes and crosses, his raids from full-back provided a trio of assists over the qualifiers, whilst Srna’s defensive numbers also bode well in DraftKings.
The Long Shots
Whilst there’s no question over his security of starts, Luka Modric (7.0 in Uefa) may struggle to justify his inclusion in our squads. The Real Madrid man is likely to be stationed in the double-pivot and, although he found the net twice during qualifying, mustered just three shots on target over his eight appearances.
An under the radar option, Marcelo Brozovic is likely to partner Modric in central midfield and comes in at just 6.5. The Inter Milan man also scored twice in qualifying, though his stats are more impressive – indeed, he produced more than double the number of efforts inside the box than Modric and also bettered him for tackles and interceptions. Brozovic grabbed a goal and assist in a 2-0 friendly over Israel in March and also netted in a win over Russia in November.
At the back, keeper Danijel Subasic and the versatile Domagoj Vida are both available for 5.0 and look nailed-on for those looking to invest in Croatia’s defence. The latter led the way for interceptions over the qualifiers and registered five efforts inside the box – more than any defender.
Sime Vrsaljo comes in at 4.5 and, after starting each of the last two friendlies at right-back, has been selected by 3% of Uefa managers. It looks debatable as to whether he can retain a place in the XI when the tournament gets underway, though. Although skipper Srna is versatile enough to shift over to the left, he’s expected to be stationed on the right, with Vida taking up the left-back berth and Vrsaljo dropping to the bench. As we saw against Moldova, though, Vida could also be utilised at centre-half if Cacic wanted to field the likes of Napoli’s Ivan Strinic (4.0) on the left instead.
Nikola Kalinic is less certain to start under the new manager but could be worth monitoring if he can nail down a berth in the first XI. Priced at 6.5 in the Uefa game, he netted 12 times for Fiorentina in last year’s Serie A and could offer Cacic an option alongside Mandzukic if Croatia opt for a two-man frontline.
Upcoming Friendlies
Croatia vs San Marino (June 4)
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Further Analysis
Group A – Albania, France, Romania, Switzerland.
Group B England, Russia, Slovakia, Wales.
Group C Germany, Northern Ireland, Poland, Ukraine.
