Having previously explored the basic principles of fixture rotation, we now begin to focus on some of the likely pairings to consider.
Over the course of these articles, we will look at the two teams involved, primarily concentrating on the prospects of their low-costs defensive options but also glancing at the possibilities in attack.
Where applicable, we will also bring in a third rotation partner for those who wish to extend their options to three players.
If you come to these articles fresh, we highly recommend you take in our
original guide to rotation as a scene-setter.
We start the series by embracing the very essence of rotation pairs – the purity of a perfect home rotation partnership.
Swansea City and West Bromwich Albion offer that prospect; barring postponements later in the season, the combination of two of their players can offer a home fixture all the way through to Gameweek 38.
The Fixtures
It’s important to stress that this principle completely disregards the difficulty of said fixture – initially, we consider this pairing on the basis that a home fixture offers an advantage.
As our previous guide indicated, that is a dangerous presumption to make.
However, as we revealed in that initial rotation piece, the home advantage appeared to strengthen as a factor last season. In addition, both West Brom and particularly Swansea City, demonstrated better defensive form on home turf.
West Brom kept just six clean sheets all season – a bitterly disappointing return that will no doubt irk manager Tony Pulis heading into the new campaign. But they kept four of that six at The Hawthorns.
Swansea City were more convincing. Despite flirting with relegation, they claimed eight clean sheets, with six arriving at the Liberty Stadium.
With that in mind, we can reasonably expect a defensive rotation to offer us 10-12 clean sheets at the very least in 2017/18. If Pulis obsesses about last season’s record (as we fully expect him to) that could increase further.
That would represent a very reasonable return providing that we can find a reliable low-cost pairing.
While we can entertain the theory of a season-long rotation pairing, just like last term’s articles, we’re going to break down the possibilities into two banks of fixtures, considering the Gameweeks that lead us up to the availability of the second Wildcard, prior to Gameweek 22, by which time the first Wildcard has to be played.
Gameweeks 1-10
BOU MUN/bur STK NEW WHM WAT WAT HUD LEI MCI/ars
Gameweeks 11-21
BHA bur/CHE BOU NEW CRY WBA MCI/liv MUN/eve CRY EVE/liv wat/ARS
The two spells are very different.
While the pairing starts with a testing opening two Gameweeks, from Gameweek 3 it settles to offer a convincing run of opponents. It falters only in Gameweek 10, when we’re faced with a choice of selecting West Brom at home against Manchester City, or Swansea at Arsenal.
However, the second period appears much ore problematic.
There is a strong run initially – perhaps up to Gameweek 17 – but from that point, the choice is far more difficult with troublesome Gameweeks to come.
In Practice
Given those two sets of fixtures up to Gameweek 22, there appears to be two obvious routes of investment in defence.
Foster and Fabianski
The goalkeepers – Ben Foster and Lukasz Fabianski – should both offer the solace of save points over the tough run of opponents from Gameweek 17.
Both are priced at 4.5 and therefore offer an effective and ready-made pairing to consider. The other appealing option is to consider two defenders with goal threat.
In both cases, we have some very obvious candidates.
Dawson and Mawson
West Brom’s Craig Dawson and Swansea’s Alfie Mawson are likely to be among the main danger men at set-plays this season.
They both scored four goals last season, five of which arrived in home matches.
Dawson and Mawson registered a goal attempt every 112 and 105 minutes in home matches last season, compared with 244 and 106 minutes away from home.
Rotate the pair and you’ll be spending 5.0 on a benched defender, plus, inevitably, you risk missing some attacking returns in away matches or against tougher opponents.
There is a 4.5 option on offer – with West Brom’s Ahmed Hegazi rotated with Swansea’s Kyle Naughton – but then you are more reliant on clean sheet returns. In addition, Hegazi’s starting role is far from secure once Gareth McAuley is fit.
Three Way Rotation
As previously mentioned, we’re more than a little cautious on the merits of a three-team rotation in defence.
However, we certainly embrace the concept and will endeavour to investigate the feasibility such a set-up.
Again, Peter Blake’s article on this subject is an excellent starting point for those who want to explore this system in depth.
As it to highlight it’s frailties, however, Peter puts forward Bournemouth as a potential partner for both West Brom and Swansea and yet, when it matters most, the Cherries fail to provide us what we need.
In Gameweek 10, when West Brom and Swansea provide us with the choice of Arsenal away or Man City at home, Eddie Howe’s men face Chelsea at the Vitality Stadium.
Similarly, in Gameweeks 17 and 18, when our pairing provides two testing opponents, Bournemouth take on Manchester United and Liverpool.
The Cherries don’t appear to be a potential solution, then. At least not when considering the spell up to Gameweek 21.
Stoke City, Burnley and Watford all appear better equipped to work with our pairing of West Brom and Swansea.
Of these, Stoke can provide a trip to Watford to cover the troublesome Gameweek 10, with a very kind run from Gameweeks 17-20 (bur WHU WBA hud) to help us through that tricky period.
Burnley aren’t quite so suitable. They offer Newcastle at home in Gameweek 10, but their opponents from Gameweek 17 are patchy (STK bha TOT mun).
Nonetheless, with Ben Mee priced at 4.5 and an assured starter, plus with Burnley’s home fixtures appearing so strong, a three-way, perhaps with Naughton and Dawson could be an avenue to explore.
Attacking Rotation
It is possible to consider these two teams for rotation, with West Brom’s Matt Phillips the most obvious mid-price attacking candidate on show from the two sides.
If he can stay out of the treatment room, the winger could and should improve on last season’s output to justify a 6.0 price tag. Chris Brunt – with a 5.5 price tag and reliable set-piece delivery – is another option.
However, the options in the Swansea camp are more problematic.
Tammy Abraham (5.5) could well be our most likely candidate. If the Chelsea loanee can possibly cement a starting role, then he could be a very popular acquisition, even without the option of rotation.
A proven goalscorer at Championship level, the concern will be that he may struggle to adjust to the top flight, while Gylfi Sigurdsson’s seemingly inevitable exit will severely damage the service he’d receive.
However, should the Swans and Abraham overcome those obstacles, then a Phillips/Abraham pairing could be worthy of investigation. Similarly, Jay Rodriguez (6.0) could be considered as a rotation option with Abraham for those opting for just one heavy-hitting striker and a two-man strike force.
The concern will be that West Brom and Swansea – without Sigurdsson – will be two sides who will struggle to score goals throughout the season.
