Our weekly fixture analysis articles return for the new season, with a slightly new format introduced.
Before each deadline, we will focus on the next four-to-six Gameweeks in an attempt to identify those teams that should be entering or exiting our mid-term plans based on the run of fixtures to come. For the key sides identified, we will assess their prospects in terms of goals and clean sheets and also pinpoint the stage at which their schedule turns.
Our analysis kicks off with those teams treated with the strongest run of opponents from Gameweek 1 onwards.
Southampton
(SWA WHM hud WAT cpl MUN)
The Prospects – Goals
While Southampton found goals hard to come by at home last season, netting just 17 times (only relegated Sunderland managed fewer with 16), Saturday’s 2-0 win over Sevilla has helped inject a little more confidence in backing their attack.
New manager Mauricio Pellegrino is not renowned for producing attacking football – his Alaves team only scored 41 goals last season, the same number as Saints tallied in 2016/17 – but the hugely enticing early schedule offers plenty of hope.
Only relegated Hull City conceded more away goals than Watford (39) last term, while the Hornets, along with upcoming visitors Swansea City and West Ham United, managed a mere two clean sheets apiece on their travels.
Newly promoted Huddersfield Town enter their first Premier League campaign having kept just 12 clean sheets, while Crystal Palace produced only seven shut-outs last season, and are getting to grips with a three-man defence under new manager Frank de Boer.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
If anything we can be more confident about investment at the back. Only Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea registered more clean sheets than Southampton’s 14 last time out.
The Watford match in Gameweek 4 appears particularly encouraging: the Hornets failed to score on their final five away trips last season. Swansea, meanwhile, will be without last season’s top goalscorer Fernando Llorente plus creator supreme Gylfi Sigurdsson, and West Ham may still be looking to gel following new attacking signings.
Of the two away trips, the match against Huddersfield looks promising – the Terriers only managed a meagre 56 goals last season – a tally that was bettered by 13 other Championship sides.
The Turning Point
Pellegrino couldn’t have asked for a kinder introduction to the Premier League, with the home clash against United the only difficult fixture across the opening 11 Gameweeks.
But from Gameweek 12 onwards, a mass exodus appears on the cards as Saints embark on a brutal run of fixtures through the rest of 2017.
Verdict
Manolo Gabbiadini got the nod to start over Charlie Austin against Sevilla and looks the likely starter up front. Ryan Bertrand is the crown jewel in the backline, with Maya Yoshida and Jack Stephens providing value. Cedric Soares could lose out to Jeremy Pied for Gameweek 1 having had just one pre-season outing. Nathan Redmond and James Ward-Prowse are perhaps the most appealing midfield assets, with Redmond our current preferred route.
West Bromwich Albion
(BOU bur STK bha WHM ars)
The Prospects – Goals
The Baggies managed a reasonable 43 goals last season, with a staggering 20 of those arriving from set-pieces.
Aside from relegated Sunderland and Hull, no teams conceded more chances from set-plays than Burnley and Stoke last season – a weakness Tony Pulis will no doubt be plotting to exploit. Bournemouth, meanwhile, ranked joint-third for goals conceded on the road last season with 38.
Brighton and Hove Albion were strong at home in the Championship, though, conceding just 14 goals, and the fixtures with West Ham and, in particular, Arsenal, are certainly more testing.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Somewhat surprisingly, West Brom only managed six clean sheets last season, and their worrying pre-season form has done little to boost confidence.
The Burnley and Stoke encounters still have some promise. Other than the relegated teams, the Clarets were the lowest scoring outfit with just 39 goals, while Stoke only netted 41 times.
Brighton only averaged 14.4 shots per match at the Amex Stadium, ranking them 11th in the Championship, which also offers hope for the Gameweek 4 meeting.
Bournemouth and West Ham both offer a reasonable goal threat on their travels, though, while Arsenal will certainly be expected to breach the West Brom defence at the Emirates.
The Turning Point
That Arsenal clash signals the beginning of a tough stretch for Pulis’ men, with matches against Manchester City, Chelsea and Spurs, along with away trips to Leicester and Southampton, over the following seven Gameweeks.
Verdict
Ben Foster should provide good value in goal during the early weeks of the season, with Craig Dawson perhaps worthy of the extra outlay due to his set-piece threat. Ahmed Hegazi looks a possible short-term option due to the injuries of Jonny Evans and more so Gareth McAuley.
Further forward, Matt Phillips and Jay Rodriguez seem viable options, with the latter’s pre-season form – and fair share of corner kick duties – perhaps giving him the edge.
Huddersfield Town
(cry NEW SOT whm LEI bur)
The Prospects – Goals
David Wagner’s side avoid the seven teams who boasted the strongest defensive records last term over their opening six Gameweeks, although the Terriers’ goal threat remains in question.
Palace only managed to keep five clean sheets in their 19 home matches last term, and could be vulnerable on Saturday, while Burnley ranked second for shots and efforts on target against, behind relegated Sunderland.
Leicester were porous on their travels in 2016/17, conceding on average two goals per match, but Newcastle may prove difficult to break down after keeping 11 clean sheets on the road in their title-winning campaign.
The Southampton and West Ham match-ups appear reasonable, although they are the toughest test over the opening slate of fixtures.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Huddersfield’s lack of shutouts last season means that despite the favourable start, their defensive assets may struggle to attract investment.
The Burnley clash perhaps looks the most promising – the Clarets had fewer close-range efforts at home (118) than any other side last season.
Southampton, meanwhile, only created 20 big chances on their travels, while home meetings with Newcastle and Leicester should also prevent Wagner’s men with clean sheet prospects.
However, while they avoid all of last season’s top seven sides, it still looks tricky pinpointing where the shutouts will come unless there are early signs of improvement from their Championship form.
The Turning Point
The Terriers’ schedule turns for the worse from Gameweek 7 onwards, with clashes against Spurs, Man United and Liverpool likely to curtail any initial appetite for their assets.
Verdict
The pre-season form of Tom Ince and Steve Mounie makes the pair potential options for our Gameweek 1 squads given the soft opening schedule, while at the back, Chris Lowe could appeal due to his attacking threat and more budget-friendly price tag compared with skipper Tommy Smith.
Manchester United
(WHM swa LEI stk EVE sot)
The Prospects – Goals
The arrival of Romelu Lukaku at Old Trafford this summer means that Fantasy managers are expecting much more from the United attack.
Jose Mourinho’s side only scored 54 goals in 2016/17, but the opening fixtures look ideal for address that lack of cutting edge.
Swansea shipped 70 goals last season, while West Ham ranked fourth for the big chances conceded in away matches with 41.
As previously mentioned, Leicester City were vulnerable on the road, while Stoke City shipped eight goals in home matches against Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal during the final months of last season.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
As already mentioned, United were very strong at the back last season, and are again expected to be among the tightest defences.
They avoid the five highest scoring teams over the opening six Gameweeks, with Leicester and Everton’s record of 17 and 20 goals respectively in their 19 away matches offering hope of returns at Old Trafford.
Clean sheets could also be a distinct possibility on the road.
Southampton and Stoke both featured in the bottom six for home goals scored last season, while the trip to Swansea also looks decent if Llorente and Sigurdsson remain absent.
The Turning Point
United face Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea between Gameweeks 8 and 11, so the appeal of their assets looks set to wane following the home encounter against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 7 before the international break.
Verdict
With the Red Devils boasting the most favourable opening schedule of the top sides, it looks difficult to ignore the claims of Lukaku – the forward is currently the most owned player in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), sat in 48.7% of squads.
Midfielders Paul Pogba and Henrikh Mkhitaryan could provide value in midfield, while David de Gea looks the safest route into the defence for those who can’t stretch to the security of Eric Bailly or Antonio Valencia.
Also Consider…
Newcastle United
The Magpies start with a daunting home tie with Spurs but enjoy a favourable run from Gameweeks 2-6 before they host Liverpool.
Even following that, the schedule picks up once more and, there’s no doubt that once the Spurs encounter has passed, Rafa Benitez’s side will rank as one of the very strongest options available.
Preparing for this run now is clearly an option, with Matt Ritchie the most appealing attacking target, perhaps followed by the in-form Christian Atsu as a differential.
Florian Lejeune appears the most secure defensive asset based on the pre-season, although it’s clear that Rob Elliot in goal will be the preferred go-to option. He could be the only active 4.0 keeper from Gameweek 1.
Brighton
The third of the promoted teams also feature in our first fixture round-up and, like Newcastle, are kept from figuring higher by a demanding opening clash.
The Seagull’s immediate appeal is dented by that home tie with Man City, although following that, they to have a run of five favourable opponents.
But unlike Newcastle, this turns severely from Gameweek 7, perhaps limiting their appeal to just five fixtures, three of which are away from home.
Markus Suttner would be our preferred route in defence, with Mat Ryan in goal another candidate.
In attack, Anthony Knockaert’s fitness issues should clear for Gameweek 2 to make him a viable option. Pascal Gross is the main alternative at 0.5 cheaper.
