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12 October 2017 1541 comments
Paul Paul
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Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

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  1. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    BREAKING!

    Phil Jones to play against Liverpool.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41534299

    1. George James
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Ban

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 years, 21 days ago

        What's wrong with the link? BBC football is spot on, 9 times out of 10.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          9 years, 21 days ago

          The other 10% 😉

        2. George James
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Only messing Virg. Not sure it confirms he will play though as you have stated.

          1. FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            9 years, 21 days ago

            It's pretty certain judging by that, me thinks.

    2. GENERATION X
      9 years, 21 days ago

      i have him but will play tom carroll instead. pool to score and these games have cards flying around maybe red ones

  2. Unbowed Unbent N'Golo
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Currently have no Man City and defence is thin:
    Alonso, Bertrand, Kola (Rosenior, Long) 1FT, 0.4 ITB

    A) Mkhy --> Sterling for free and hope Kola is fit
    B) Mhky & Kola --> Silva & Ota for -4

    1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      A, no defender for a hit

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      A and hope for the best. This is why having 2 non player defenders can hurt you

      1. Unbowed Unbent N'Golo
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Yeah true dat, but haven't needed a sub yet this season either, so works both ways. Still have WC in hand too o'course.

        Cheers both.

  3. Oven Glover
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Are you ready? He’s ready!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/aguerosergiokun

    1. Chris_White
      9 years, 21 days ago

      ...and so it begins... 😀

      1. Oven Glover
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Proud owner 🙂

    2. Ode
      9 years, 21 days ago

      So he didn't even fracture his rib

    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Absolute spanner to my plan.

      There's definitely egg on Jonty's face after he was so unequivocal on the scoutcast. Looks like Man City's "light training" was a bit more rigorous than first thought.

      1. Oven Glover
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Never trust the scouts! You of all people should know that by now!

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          😀

    4. Sánchez
      9 years, 21 days ago

      "Vamos" springs to memory

    5. how now brown cow
      9 years, 21 days ago

      This is quite funny really.

    6. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Wow!

  4. Bryggebermen-Martin
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Lots of WCs beeing played. This is my first season, and the WC is exhausting. Tankfull for any help! The 3 big questions are:
    1 Hazard is tempting, and easy to downgrade, but is he worth it?
    2. Alonso/stones/maguire or d. luiz/walker/jones?
    3. Is it to clever thinking 343/433 stoke/burnley and brighton/newcastle def/mid rotation is the way to go?

    My WC team changes every hour, but could look like this:

    fabianski
    alonso, stones, maguire, ward/choupo-moting rotation,
    groß/lascelles rotation, hazard, sterling
    kane, jesus (will be morata in a two weeks), vardy

    1. Teror
      9 years, 21 days ago

      1. He could be, but I wouldn't yet.
      2. L/W/J
      3. 4-3-3 looks like the best this season. Not sure about rotation.

      Good team overall.

    2. andymck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      1. Not for me - too unpredictable, never a captain option, struggles away from home so certainly not worth 10.5m in my opinion.
      2. Option b, but both are good.
      3. Looks ok but I'd probably prefer to just stick with 1 formation rather than switching black and forth between two. Personal preference though.

    3. Rate My Tome
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Also on a WC and making decisions similar to yours.

      1)Hazard is really tempting but I prefer Eriksen even with the tough fixtures, especially with the extra money it offers.
      2)Alonso or Azpi are my Chelsea defenders of choice, I'm not touching Luiz. Go big or go home for me.
      3) I would recommend avoiding rotation of two slots between 4 players. That way lies guaranteed bitterness with a tinge of madness. Speaking from personal experience here.

    4. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      1. A risk but could be worth it.
      2. Second option but Walker feels overpriced.
      3. Keep rotations simple. 2 cheap defenders or GK's rotating is fine. When it turns into rotating positions it becomes over complicated and you can easily miss points.

    5. Bryggebermen-Martin
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Thanks!

  5. Teror
    9 years, 21 days ago

    What's my priority this week? https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/team/420916/event/7

    Wanted to get rid of KdB for Sterling or Silva but I'm worried I might see blanks from Salah and Ritchie and Jones so I feel like maybe Ritchie needs to go. Any help?

    1. Blame it on Traore
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Wouldn't worry. Think those players are fine for this week!

  6. Davido989
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Hope Pep drops a line that Aguero starts tomorrow in what is already a miraculous recovery from broken ribs.

    1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      all press reports say injured ribs, could have been bruised only

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        9 years, 21 days ago

        I don't think he even hurt his ribs

      2. THE Wild Rover
        9 years, 21 days ago

        He said himself that it was a broken rib 😡

        1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          not if he's running around

          1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
            9 years, 21 days ago

            Something fishy about the whole thing. I have a feeling we are not being told the full story

    2. Spartac Mac
      9 years, 21 days ago

      If he's moving, in training, getting tackled etc there's 0% chance ribs were broken.

      Probably just a bit shell-shocked from the accident? He's playing on the weekend I'd say.

      1. @fpl_phenom
        9 years, 21 days ago

        oh ffsake!! Could have done Morata to Aguero:-( did Morata to Jesus

        1. THFC4LIFE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Same

  7. HD7
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Jones, Atsu, Kolasinac... will they play this GWeek?

    1. Sánchez
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Yes, dunno, yes

  8. Bruno Bruno!!
    9 years, 21 days ago

    If Pep says anything on Aguero tomorrow that is positive, I am tempted to do Morata to Aguero as a differential to Jesus as lots has brought him in.

    1. Sánchez
      9 years, 21 days ago

      What if he says his recovery is going well (but just doesn't elaborate that he's still not ready to play)?

  9. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Morata > Kun no brainer?

    1. Bruno Bruno!!
      9 years, 21 days ago

      im thinking of making that exact move after the chelsea and City pressers tomorrow

  10. MiguelAngel
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Thinking..
    A) Laca > Jesus
    B) Laca & Atsu > Vardy & Sterling -4

    1. arndff_
      9 years, 21 days ago

      A

  11. Jafooli
    9 years, 21 days ago

    #magicbeans

  12. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    is Jesus being rested for Napoli match midweek with aguero returning the following gw on the cards?

    1. Sánchez
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Asnd no striker this week?

      1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 years, 21 days ago

        yep, just sterling and sane

  13. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Kola has no flag
    What the story ?

    1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      wait for pressers

      1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
        9 years, 21 days ago

        the presser was today ?

        1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          lol good point

    2. Jersey
      9 years, 21 days ago

      yes he does

    3. @fpl_phenom
      9 years, 21 days ago

      He does.... he’s yellow flagged.

    4. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Refresh your window.

  14. @fpl_phenom
    9 years, 21 days ago

    I did Morata to Jesus to beat the price rise and fall. Now Aguero is fit... FML. I have money for Jesus to Kun... il be doing that next week. Hope Jesus plays v Stoke.

    1. Spartac Mac
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Jesus still ain't a bad option, even if Kun is about.

      1. @fpl_phenom
        9 years, 21 days ago

        KUN is different gravy IMO.

      2. THE Wild Rover
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Unless you sold Aguero for Jesus for a hit 🙄

    2. johnnys balloons
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Relax, even IF aguero starts, he would be the one who gets subbed in 60th minute of the game. So its a good thing for jesus owners. And I dont really think that aguero will start or play any part in stoke game. Maybe against Napoli witch is also good for jesus coz he might be rested for PL game

  15. Jafooli
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Currently on WC......trying to snap one off.

  16. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Is Ritchie to Fabregas worth a -4?

    1. arndff_
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Nope

  17. andymck
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Sterling likely to go up tonight? I know he's past the mark on fplstats but I'm taking that with a pinch of salt this year...

  18. Chris_White
    9 years, 21 days ago

    So...who brought in Morata last week and shifted to Jesus this week? 😛

    1. Teror
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I went Morata > Vardy on WC. Preferred Sterling and Silva over Jesus.

    2. THE Wild Rover
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Lol, who would be so dumb? The cool kids sold Aguero and brought Fellaini -4 😎

    3. Pirlø's Pen
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Did the former, getting Vardy and getting Walker this week I think. Already had Jesus.

    4. Jayv807
      9 years, 21 days ago

      GW6 brought in Kun
      GW7 brought in Morata for Kun
      GW8 brought in Jesus for Morata

      Will probably swap out Jesus next week ..

  19. Teror
    9 years, 21 days ago

    KdB + Long > Sterling + Luiz (-4) ?

    1. arndff_
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Yes

  20. Oven Glover
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Kane or Kun captain? 😎

    1. arndff_
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Kane ofc...

    2. Teror
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Kun (C); Kane (VC)

      1. arndff_
        9 years, 21 days ago

        bs

    3. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Kun capatain and him starting is the ultimate flair pic

  21. RubberDucky
    9 years, 21 days ago

    This Aguero news is halting my Sterling transfer.

    Seems the safest option to keep Mkhi this GW

    1. Unbowed Unbent N'Golo
      9 years, 21 days ago

      If you have no other City coverage though it's still worth it for the next 2 fixtures I reckon.

      1. RubberDucky
        9 years, 21 days ago

        I have no City players but a risky Sterling minutes against a guaranteed Mhki against A poor Liverpool Defence and then Huddersfield

        1. bench boost for every gamew…
          9 years, 21 days ago

          we cannot predict the future but we can read numbers and people tend to repeatedly saying that Liverpool has a poor defense; well, they have one goal against in 3 matches at home. They are poor away, not so on home turf. Last season they were joint second best with most of the other top teams for goals against at home, bar United who decided to play 0-0 in every homegame...

  22. GarethJohn
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Hey guys,
    Deciding if I made a trade this week or keep and have 2 free next week, I do have 1.4 in the bank also:

    Fabianski
    Jones,Naughton,Lascelles
    Hazard,Salah,Silva,Mkhitaryan
    Jesus,Lukaku,Calvert-Lewin

    Bench: Elliot - Mbemba - Rosenior - King

    Thanks for any feedback.

  23. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Good transfers?

    Lukaku and Firmino —> Lacazette and Vardy

  24. Zladan
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Lukaku or Jesus

    1. how now brown cow
      9 years, 21 days ago

      With Kun seemingly fit I am sticking with Lukaku

  25. Garlicbread
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Which midfield scores more over the next 6/7 weeks??

    A) Hazard, Silva & Chipo-Moting

    Or

    B) Eriksen, Silva & Sterling

    Thanks in advance......!!

  26. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Alsono & Jesus

    Luiz & Kun

    Both cost the same, it’s got to be the latter right?

    1. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Do you think Kun will start if he's ok to play?

    1. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      "Back to training. I am ready (biceps emoji)!"

    2. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Nothing if he thought he had broken ribs

    3. Pino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      He is back!

    4. johnnys balloons
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Nothing. He wont play next game. He is just back in training. Wait for Pep's presser

  27. dan_247
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Here's my wildcard team. What do you think:

    Fab/ Elliott
    Stones, Luiz, Cedric, mee, jones
    Silva, coutinho choupo, richarl, Tc
    Kane, vardy, Jesus

    1. @fpl_phenom
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Aguero is fit, rip it up and start again.

      1. Jam0sh
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Fit to train at least. But to play, who knows?

        1. dan_247
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Tough call. But I think he will rest against Stoke and come in either midweek or the following weekend.

          Let's assume he won't play against Stoke. Any changes to the above team?

          Thanks

          1. Jam0sh
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            9 years, 21 days ago

            Solid team

  28. @fpl_phenom
    9 years, 21 days ago

    When are the pressers?

    1. Jersey
      9 years, 21 days ago

      8 were today, the rest tomorrow.

    2. VS10_
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Pep starting his around 4am.

  29. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Who will get more minutes in the next 3 GWs?

    A) Fabregas

    B) Sterling