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12 October 2017 1541 comments
Paul Paul
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Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

1,541 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. jai1212
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Have to play any two out of these options -
    a. Naughton vs HUD
    b. Tarkowski vs WHU
    c. Choupa Moting v Mcl

    1. 2hotty
      9 years, 21 days ago

      a and b deffo

    2. Reedy
      9 years, 21 days ago

      B - for sure - and probably C.

    3. Runaway
      9 years, 21 days ago

      A-B

  2. BAMBAA
    9 years, 21 days ago

    How long is Fellaini expected to be out for injury?

    1. Flynny
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Few weeks

  3. 2hotty
    9 years, 21 days ago

    got 2 free transfers thinking kola to luiz i think chelseas fixtures are better than arsenals i really fancy watford to beat them and then roll me other transfer over does anyone think ive got other pressing issues that need sorting first any ideas most welcome

    eliott
    kola jones davies otamendi
    erikson salah atsu d silva
    kane lukaku
    krul naughton rlc hemed

    1. 2hotty
      9 years, 21 days ago

      0 in the bank

    2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      9 years, 21 days ago

      You need to use some full stops, I'm out of breath reading that 😆

      I don't think kola to Luiz is a good move. Kola could easily still get a clean sheet and attacking returns.

      I would rather shift jones out for his tough schedule.

      Jones to Cedric?

  4. Flynny
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Am I good to go with this wildcard?

    Jesus still a reasonable short term option?...0.9itb

    Fab elliot
    Luiz bavies jones ward wimmer
    Hazard Silva richarlison rlc Carroll
    Kane jesus vardy

    Thanks

  5. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    GTG?

    Fabianski
    Trippier - Kolasinac - Yoshida - Mee
    Eriksen - Salah - Silva
    Kane - Lukaku - Abraham

    Elliot, Atsu, Carroll, Long

    Thanks!

    1. Flynny
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Nice

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Yep! GL

  6. Pirlø's Pen
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Morata, Mkhi, Hunemeir -> Vardy, David Silva, Walker worth a hit!?

    Would give me this for this week (good for the future too)

    Elliot
    Walker Kolasinac Davies Maguire Ward
    Alli Silva
    Kane(c) Jesus Vardy

    Gomes C-Moting Carroll Chalobah

    Like it cause its a bit different. Thanks.

    1. Reedy
      9 years, 21 days ago

      For just -4? Looks alright, that.

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Good moves! Worth the hit

    3. The Albatross
      9 years, 21 days ago

      great team

  7. Delima
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Hi guys,

    im set on going with this team this weekend:

    Foster
    Kolasinac - Davies - Mee
    Groß - Salah - KDB - Carroll - Richarlison
    Kane(c) - Jesus

    Bench(in this order): Myhill - Joselu - Naughton - Lascelles

    0FT - 2.9 itb - WC intact

    As said, i don't feel taking taking hits or wildcard with these..

    Thx!

    1. Monkey Hanger
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I'd play Joselu or Naughton ahead of Carroll. Carroll doesn't look like ever getting more than 3pts.

  8. The Royal Robin
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Any hits needed this week? £1.1 itb.

    Lossl
    Cedric Maguire Alonso Bavies
    Sterling Eriksen Brady
    Lukaku Kane Chicharito

    Foster Carroll TFM Chalobah

    1. We Will Klopp you
      9 years, 21 days ago

      No, looks fine

      1. Flynny
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Good set up

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      9 years, 21 days ago

      G2G

    3. @NF_Janner
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Yeah. Your robin pic should be red!

  9. We Will Klopp you
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Anyone else got a dilemma of who to watch in the 3:00 matches? Traditionally watch my captains play but watching 2 City attackers in that Stoke match could be a cause for celebration.

    1. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I'm on a flight when games are on. A few hours of wondering what's going on!

      1. We Will Klopp you
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Feels even better when you find out one of your players hauled afterwards, all joy no frustration

  10. sminkypinky
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Wc team confirmed. First time going five at the back with 5-2-3... 😯

    1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      A huge strategic error, imho.

      1. sminkypinky
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Duly noted and your opinion is highly respected. I look forward to making you eat those words... 😉

        1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Perhaps.

          WC, GW 8:

          Ryan
          Otamendi, Monreal, Duffy
          Eriksen, Coutinho, Silva, Sterling(vc)
          Kane(c), Vardy, Rashford

          Elliot; Stephens, Lascelles, Mbemba … 0, 0.2 ITB, TV: 101.8, SV: 100.9

          1. sminkypinky
            9 years, 21 days ago

            That's a very different and decent team as well. Similar value. I hope you do well mate!

            1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              9 years, 21 days ago

              Good luck to you too! 🙂

          2. AllanM
            9 years, 21 days ago

            Best WC team I've seen.

    2. F4L
      9 years, 21 days ago

      ah, no enjoyment in that

      1. sminkypinky
        9 years, 21 days ago

        I disagree. Look:
        Fabs
        Ota Azpi Bavies Ward Maguire
        Haz Raheem
        Kane Vardy Jesus

        Elliot Carrol Choupo RLC

        Still attacking right?

        1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          You must have a mammoth TV.

          1. sminkypinky
            9 years, 21 days ago

            Nope. But is that a slight turn of heart? Not as grim as you expected?

            1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              9 years, 21 days ago

              What is your TV? Not a change of heart, no.

              1. sminkypinky
                9 years, 21 days ago

                After transfers 101.5

                1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  9 years, 21 days ago

                  Crikey. Well, that's a lot of skill fitting that lot in.

                  1. sminkypinky
                    9 years, 21 days ago

                    A wee bit of tinkering yes. 🙂

        2. Evasivo
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Id be worried your def getting no returns, while Coutinho, Eriksen, Salah, Silva bring in hauls

          1. sminkypinky
            9 years, 21 days ago

            Always a possibility. Then again they might fail and my defence might score huge. Who knows?

            1. Evasivo
              9 years, 21 days ago

              hehe i knew you'd say that 😉 Well good luck, some balls id say!

              1. sminkypinky
                9 years, 21 days ago

                Cheers. Already feel a bit better after your compliment! 😀

        3. Fire Chief Moe
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Similar to mine:

          Fab
          Bavies, luiz, Ota, Cedric, Dunk
          Hazard, Sterling
          Kane, Vardy, Jesus

          Elliot, Chupo, Caroll, RLC

    3. Reedy
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Another 5-2-3! This is beginning to look like a movement. Not doing it myself, but I don't hate it.

      1. sminkypinky
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Might backfire like MF but I want to give it a go.

        1. Steve
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          I've been on it all season

          1. sminkypinky
            9 years, 21 days ago

            How has it gone?

            1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              9 years, 21 days ago

              GW 10 - it will be interesting for you. 🙂

              1. sminkypinky
                9 years, 21 days ago

                Yep...

  11. RAFA THE GAFFA
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Last few spots on WC...

    A. Azpi + Jesus (+Mbemba)
    B. Cedric + Lukaku (+Clark)
    C. Luiz + Jesus (+Lascelles)

    Ryan
    Otamendi • Bavies • XXX • Ward
    Sterling • Hazard • Richarlison
    Vardy • Kane • XXX
    (Elliot / XXX / TC / RLC)

    1. Jersey
      9 years, 21 days ago

      B

  12. KAPTAIN KANE SERVES THE PAI…
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Thoughts on Hazard vs Sanchez this weekend as picks?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Eden!!

      1. Flynny
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Hazard

        Sanchez is v v costly

        1. KAPTAIN KANE SERVES THE PAI…
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Thanks both

  13. Runaway
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Cedric Conundrum: Very good next 4 fixtures, perfect placeholder for Jones. However his price change indicator is over -95% for days. Apparently he will not drop before the deadline but if he gets 1-2 pt this week, he will immediately drop and loose me a net 0.1 which would also make me short of getting Jones @GW12. Do you think Yoshida nailed enough to be picked over Cedric?

    1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I would. But I am getting a proper midfield.

    2. rdamjan
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Placeholder for Daniels:) Yosihda is CB and Cedric RB.

      1. Runaway
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Actually my question was would you pick Yoshida over Cedric as a SOU coverage since they are both 5.0. Is Yoshida nailed (VVD back and Hoedt-Stephens in line)?

    3. RAFA THE GAFFA
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Prefer Cedric! Nailed

    4. AllanM
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Maybe go without Southampton coverage?

      Better value options.

  14. sminkypinky
    9 years, 21 days ago

    No Pool or Utd for me. That first match might sting...

    1. Reedy
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I have Jones. Think I'd rather be in your shoes!

      1. sminkypinky
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Utd might keep a CS. Six in seven. Don't really know why i got rid?.!

  15. Scotty B
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Fabianski
    Bellerin Cedric Jones Alonso
    Salah Eriksen Ritchie
    Morata Kane Rooney

    Elliot Shaqiri Carroll Tuanzabe

    Which option is better?
    A Jones/Ritchie/Morata > Ward/Sterling/Vardy -8 (exact funds)
    B Morata/Rooney > Jesus/Chicharito -4 (exact funds)
    C Something else

  16. Red Dagger ✪
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    A. Lukaku and Groß to Jesus and Sterling -4
    B. Lacazette and Miki to Jesus and Sterling -4

    what would you do..? My front line is now

    Miki Salah Groß Carroll RLC
    Kane Lacazette Lukaku

    1. We Will Klopp you
      9 years, 21 days ago

      B

      1. Red Dagger ✪
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 years, 21 days ago

        I knew you would say that. 99% sure I'll do it. Cheers as always.

        1. We Will Klopp you
          9 years, 21 days ago

          No worries, always happy to help

          1. Red Dagger ✪
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            9 years, 21 days ago

            Cheers!

  17. rdamjan
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Best 4.0 def to get on wc? Still Mbemba?

    1. F4L
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Mbemba could be the worst if he is permanently dropped

    2. We Will Klopp you
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Marriappa probably you're best bet of one that's playing

      1. Reedy
        9 years, 21 days ago

        It's between those, yeah. Mbemba could be called on again, you never know.

    3. KAPTAIN KANE SERVES THE PAI…
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Probably get a 3.9 and back the handy 0.1 imo

  18. Krafty Werks
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Is there a possibility that Hazard may rise tonight? Should i bring in now? Thanks.

    1. Flynny
      9 years, 21 days ago

      You should be safe....but check before you go to sleep

  19. Ohhh Shola Ameobi
    9 years, 21 days ago

    An Aguero Jesus Kane frontline is tempting me. I don't think any City mid will 'cover' the points lost from either striker, and it seems silly not to go for the two strikers from arguably the leagues best team.

  20. Bodini
    9 years, 21 days ago

    The defenders hotlist was updated earlier, was there an injury that I missed?

  21. Mr Wizard
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Eriksen >> Hazard

    Who’s with me?

    Is the palace fixture too good to miss especially if Hazard gets fielded as a false 9!

    How would you feel if Wembley let’s spurs down again and Hazard lights palace up!?

    Thoughts?

    1. fedolefan
      9 years, 21 days ago

      No one's with you.

      1. Mr Wizard
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Awww 🙁

    2. Ode
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Not for Eriksen

    3. Mr Wizard
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Next week?

    4. Reedy
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I think you may be on to something there.

    5. sminkypinky
      9 years, 21 days ago

      o/

  22. Weasel51
    9 years, 21 days ago

    A)Joselu+Salah
    B)Vardy+Richarlson

    1. KAPTAIN KANE SERVES THE PAI…
      9 years, 21 days ago

      B

    2. Jersey
      9 years, 21 days ago

      B

  23. HamezMace
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Sky sports article - 'United won't score at Anfield' - Phil Thompson.

    They will if they get a corner mate.

    1. Monkey Hanger
      9 years, 21 days ago

      They will regardless.

  24. trisonetwo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    How do I see xG in the members stats? I can't see it.

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

      1. trisonetwo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 years, 21 days ago

        thanks but not available to create our own stats tables I take it?

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          9 years, 21 days ago

          which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

    2. AllanM
      9 years, 21 days ago

      There's other sites you can get it on.

  25. KAPTAIN KANE SERVES THE PAI…
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Kolasinac, Ritchie and Lukaku
    To
    Mee, Hazard and Vardy

    Yay or nay?

    1. You want sum?
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Nooooooo.

      1. KAPTAIN KANE SERVES THE PAI…
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Thanks Carl, I'll step away from the keyboard haha

  26. Totti
    9 years, 21 days ago

    instead of mkhitaryan
    already owning silva

    A) sane
    B) Sterling
    C) other suggestion

    1. ttownstokie
      9 years, 21 days ago

      A ,I just signed him as Ali replacement to fund Kane in.

      1. Totti
        9 years, 21 days ago

        despite owning silva?

  27. ttownstokie
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Is it worth wildcarding to make 3 changes or take an 8 point hit. Not many game weeks left till new January wild card.A bit of a dilema???

    1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Not worth

  28. You want sum?
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Here we go then...

    I'm pretty happy with this lineup but I have 2FT with 0.4 ITB.

    Fabianski (Elliott)
    Kol - Otamendi - Lowe - Jones (Rosenior)
    Silva - Alli - Salah (Ritchie - Carroll)
    Morata - Kane - Abraham

    What would you do?

    1. Totti
      9 years, 21 days ago

      morata to vardy

      1. Totti
        9 years, 21 days ago

        ritchie to sterling or sane

        1. You want sum?
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Double up on Man City mid?

      2. Totti
        9 years, 21 days ago

        both transfers

      3. You want sum?
        9 years, 21 days ago

        No Kaku consideration?

    2. ttownstokie
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I thought Morata was njured

      1. You want sum?
        9 years, 21 days ago

        I thought it was only minor?

  29. French Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Hazard on WC team
    Yay or Nay ?

    1. Totti
      9 years, 21 days ago

      yay

    2. Reedy
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Yay

      1. Jersey
        9 years, 21 days ago

        after much thought, no

  30. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Pick me a defender for £6.3 - Got Bavies and 3 city!

    1. Totti
      9 years, 21 days ago

      vvd

      1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Mad troll

      2. ForEvra Young
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Morata & Mkhi to...

        A) Jesus & Sterling

        B) Vardy & Stering & 2.1 itb

    2. Monkey Hanger
      9 years, 21 days ago

      VVD.

      1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Nutter

    3. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Luiz or Cahill

      1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Was thinking Luiz dude