Scout Notes
18 October 2017 631 comments
davidwardale davidwardale
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Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah both score twice as Liverpool run riot in Slovenia. Man City hot properties Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus are in the goals again as they take huge step towards a place in the Champions League knockout stages. Meanwhile, Danny Rose makes his own progress, returning to action as Spurs draw in the Bernabeu.

Here’s the notes from Tuesday’s European ties…

Spurs hold firm in Madrid

Spurs sit top of Champions League Group H after battling to a draw in Madrid after being pegged back by Cristiano Ronaldo’s penalty.

A Raphael Varane own goal had given Mauricio Pochettino’s the advantage, as the defender turned in Harry Kane’s flick from Serge Aurier’s cross.

Not surprisingly, Spurs were put under intense pressure with Hugo Lloris outstanding, though Kane could have easily won the game with second-half effort, only to be denied by a world-class stop from Keylor Navas.

But Pochettino’s line-up was of most interest to Fantasy managers.

It certainly sprung a surprise. With Dele Alli serving out his European suspension, the Spurs manager reshuffled to hand Fernando Llorente only the second start of his Spurs career.

He joined Kane in in a 5-3-2 set-up, with Eric Dier slotting alongside Toby Alderweireld and Davinson Sanchez in defence.

Harry Winks held a central role in midfield, flanked by Christian Eriksen and Moussa Sissoko.

The introduction of Danny Rose on 80 minutes was of great significance.

He swapped with Sissoko on the left of midfield but will now clearly challenge Ben Davies for pitch time at left-back.

The Welshman has been one of the stars of our season so far, and is backed by an ownership of 24.2% heading into Friday’s deadline.

But Davies has suffered losses as a result of missing out on the clean sheet against Bournemouth in Gameweek 8 – over 79,000 have shown him the exit.

With a stiffening schedule of fixtures (LIV mun CRY ars) and now Rose as a threat to his minutes, it’s difficult to make a case to counter that current market trend.

Spurs will host Real Madrid in their next Champions League tie, which follows the trip to Manchester United. That falls before the “home” Gameweek 11 fixture with Crystal Palace, making that fixture a clear hotspot for possible rest and rotation – perhaps a prime candidate for Rose to make his first Premier League start of the campaign.

Sterling on the mark as Aguero sits out

Man City’s two top Fantasy transfer targets delivered goals as Pep Guardiola’s side held on for a 2-1 victory over Napoli.

Raheem Sterling justified his current level of Fantasy investment with an eighth goal in 11 appearances for Man City this season. He slotted home after a Kyle Walker effort had been blocked.

Gabriel Jesus then followed up with a second, with Kevin De Bruyne – almost inevitably – the provider.

City sparkled again, with De Bruyne the key figure, though Napoli tested their resilience.

They arrived in Manchester having won all eight of their matches in the Italian top flight this season and could have got an early foothold via a Dries Mertens penalty which was saved by Ederson.

Another spot-kick, this time from Amadou Diawara, got them back into the game but Guardiola’s defence, with John Stones prominent, was impressive.

Guardiola has now named the same XI in each of City’s last three matches in all competitions, but with the schedule picking up pace, we can perhaps expect one or two changes against Burnley this weekend.

Replaced by Bernardo Silva on 70 minutes, Sterling’s Champions League pitch time was again managed – indeed, last night was his first start in the competition this season.

Yet Jesus owners will have concerns after he was afforded 87 minutes before being subbed off – particularly as Sergio Aguero warmed the bench from start to finish once again.

Aguero will surely be pushing for a return to the teamsheet against the Clarets, with the Argentine just one goal away from matching Eric Brook’s 78-year-old scoring record for the club.

It seems likely that Guardiola will at least attempt to manufacture a scenario where Aguero breaks the record in front of his own supporters. He certainly has that luxury given City’s form.

City’s next match against Napoli falls on November 1 – four days after their Gameweek 10 clash with West Brom and four days before a Gameweek 11 visit from Arsenal that precedes the next international break.

Last night’s win – their third successive Champions League victory – means they now need just one point in Italy to secure a place in the knockout stages.

Firmino leads Liverpool rout

After failing to find a way past Jose Mourinho’s parked bus at Anfield on Saturday, Liverpool took their frustrations out on Maribor to record an emphatic 7-0 win in Slovenia.

As you’d expected, the Reds’ front three were instrumental.

Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah both supplied two goals and an assist apiece, while Philippe Coutinho chipped in with a goal and two assists as the visitors raced to a 5-0 lead by 54 minutes.

This allowed manager Jurgen Klopp to replace Salah and Firmino on 57 minutes and 68 minutes respectively ahead of Sunday’s trip to Spurs.

Second-half substitutes Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (goal) and Daniel Sturridge (assist) also contributed to the rout, while Trent Alexander-Arnold and James Milner – two of three changes to the XI – profited from starts to deliver a goal and assist respectively. Alberto Moreno also claimed an assist.

Milner’s performance – in an attacking central midfield role in place of Jordan Henderson – drew the plaudits and it will be interesting to see if that triggers more opportunities. Milner is, of course, classified as a defender in FPL this season.

Meanwhile, the goals form Salah and Firmino arrive at a time where many owners are having second thoughts ahead of the Spurs encounter – they’ve been sold by 54,000 and 48,000 already this week.

Yet the fixtures from Gameweek 10 onwards – Huddersfield, West Ham, Southampton, Stoke, Brighton, Everton, West Brom and Bournemouth in eight of the subsequent nine – looks highly conducive to Fantasy investment.

The Reds’ early exit from the Carabao Cup affords them next midweek off at a time when many of their rivals are set to feature and surely lessens the likelihood of rest and rotation ahead of their trip to Wembley.

The return match with Maribor occurs four days after Huddersfield and three before West Ham in Gameweeks 10 and 11, though with his side just one point ahead of third-placed Sevilla in Group E, Klopp seems likely to unleash the big guns again as he looks to climb clear at the summit.

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  1. Balance and Flexibility
    J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 2 months ago

    Fantasy Football Scout daily hot topic

    Balance and flexibility

    We didn’t have time on last night’s Scoutcst to answer Rossonero’s question about the importance of balance and flexibility in this template-less season.

    Be good to read your thoughts on this.

    So over to Rossonero…

    “Is this season all about balance and flexibility? So far this season we’ve seen expensive midfielders do well, expensive forwards do well, the rise of expensive defenders, 3-4-3, 4-4-3, 4-4-2 even 5-2-3.

    With value and money needed in all positions is flexibility the key to setting out teams up, allowing us to just jump on teams that have form and fixtures.

    For example - Gameweek 8 Wildcarders ditched Liverpool and Man United attackers for Man City players. But in Gameweek 10 Liverpool players will be in demand and from Gameweek 12 so too United players.

    Should we be ready to load up on players from a few teams for a short period of time, and then move them around as fixtures and form turn?”

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      I agree that flexibility and the ability to swiftly rotate will be key to getting the best out of heavy hitters.

      Over the next eight to nine fixtures City and Chelsea remain strong throughout – so invest in them now and keep their players.

      Liverpool players over that period get good then slump, so should be brought in and out as required. The same goes for Tottenham, whose fixtures turn in the short term, before picking up in the long term.

      Same applies to Manchester Utd, whose fixtures turn bad, get good but then go bad again over the next nine or so.

      So perhaps moving around Liverpool, Man Utd and Spurs assets but keep hold of your City and Chelsea ones looks the ideal scenario – will take a lot of juggling though.

      1. Eze Really?
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        I think one get 2 man U defenders and have kaku when needed. Pool and Spurs are obvious choices.
        The big thing last night is the chopping and changing of low price mids. A waste of tfr's IMO. Stick with 2 of the 5 suspects with a 4.5. I think hits will be more common place due to the lack of a template side.

        1. Jarnathan
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 2 months ago

          But DeGea seems a way better option than any of the defenders except Jones

          1. Eze Really?
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            What I am doing

      2. the Penman
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        I’m swapping Kane and Lukaku in and out over the next 5 or 6.

      3. DAN DARE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Not sure I agree with you on Chelsea Jonty. 1 home game in 4 coming up and that's Utd. I think if you dont hv any of their assets now then you may as well wait until gw14. Also have to say that I thought Mark let you off very lightly for replicating his TC/RLC double pivot after the amount of stick you gave him!

        1. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 2 months ago

          Jonty's double pivot is completely different from Mark's.

          Mark was planning to play 3-4-3, rotating his two 4.5m mids as 4th midfielder.
          Jonty planned to play 4-3-3, leaving the two 4.5m mids on the bench.

          Nothing wrong with the 4.5m double pivot, as long as you don't attempt to combine it with a 3-4-3 formation.

          Mark has now admitted that he got his wildcard wrong, but Jonty's is looking really good.

          1. DAN DARE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            You dont need to convince me. I also wc'd last week and have 12 of the same players as Jonty incl TC and RLC. Its different, not convinced its different enough considering the stick Mark got. Plus maybe I was hoping for some banter of the calibre of that scoutcast which was exceptional!

          2. FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Jonty Wildcard is a bit too reliant on just 2 teams, I feel.

            1. TorresMagic™
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 16 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Beats relying on both Sanchez and Hazard.

              1. FPL Virgin
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 2 months ago

                They are FPL gold who always score 200 points a season. It's just a matter of time. You should be nervous as a non owner.

                1. lespaul
                  • 16 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  * Have always until now

          3. Hotdogs for Tea
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            actually that is not quite right,
            Mark has 2 x 4.5 defenders and 2 x 4.5 mids to rotate and has switched between 433 and 343.
            Jonty has 2 x 4.5 defenders and the same 2 x 4.5 mids to rotate , and is likely to switch between 433 and 343. Just copied Mark ?

            1. RedLightning
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 15 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Jonty only has one sub-5.0m defender (Stephen Ward).
              Mark's wildcard included Alexander-Arnold, who was a very risky punt, and he still has two sub-5.0m defenders (Naughton and Tarkowski).

              Jonty's defence is stronger than Mark's, so he can afford to play 4-3-3 most game-weeks. His wildcard was certainly not a copy of Mark's.

              Mark will probably be forced to switch to 3-4-3 more often than Jonty, but his 4.5m mids will hardly ever return more than 3 points - Jonty's defenders offer far better value.

              1. Hotdogs for Tea
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 2 months ago

                Maguire is 4.5 defender irrespective of his bloated 5.1 price 😉 no need to pay over the odds and Jonty has missed a trick there - similar defender options at 4.5 and that .6 could be spent much better !

      4. ktk_interista
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        I think a core of 6 players from City, Utd and Spurs is important to have over most of the season barring sudden loss of form or injury to key players. This number can rise to 8 when fixtures are very favorable. The only real contenders for the title, the only really consistent performers able to provide points a both ends of the pitch and the only ones consistently able to thrash smaller teams and hence you can know when to expect their points and double up or even triple up sometimes.

    2. Gegenpress
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      I've done something similar with my team. Yes I did wildcard last week. But flexibility is key this season I think! I've had Lukaku, Morata, Firmino, Vardy, Kane and Jesus all so far at different points! My current team (below) allows me to rotate but as you can see, currently I have some players who are 'fixed'.

      Pope Elliot

      Luiz Alonso Jones* Ward* Mbemba

      Sterling Coutinho Richarlison* Choupo* RLC*

      Vardy Kane Jesus

      The starred players would usually be the ones rotating for 3 places in the team and hence different formations are accessible.

      I also have the flexibility to change strikers accordingly (Kane and Vardy can give me Aguero and Morata as I have 0.5 itb. I would very likely do this next week for a -4) I like the upcoming chelsea fixtures but can easily rotate defenders with city ie. Luiz / Otanmendi

      I think flexibility will be key this season but also there'll be some season long players such as Jesus

      1. Trevez
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        I have a very similar plan rich and chopupo rotate very well

        Fab Elliot
        Davies Jones VVD Luiz Ward
        Sterling Silva Rich Choupo Tc
        Kane Jesus Vardy
        1.1m ITB

        1. Gegenpress
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 2 months ago

          Yes they do! Zaha also one to keep an eye on.

        2. Johqvist
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 2 months ago

          They rotate well but Rich have scored all his goals away from home.

    3. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      I think the concept of 'season keeper' is losing relevance.

      I think having money ITB and being prepared to switch around big players is becoming key.

      1. Awesom-o
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Exactly.

        I shifted Lukaku out weeks ago when we were told he was a a season keeper, got in Morata and Jesus in his place who have both returned big captain hauls while Lukaku has been steady away. He'll return in GW12.

        Kane is next to go, for Morata more than likely. He'll be back around GW14.

        For me it's not a question of owning big hitters, it is when you own them. Form and fixtures are king.

    4. Joggers Nipple
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      'So perhaps moving around Liverpool, Man Utd and Spurs assets but keep hold of your City and Chelsea ones looks the ideal scenario – will take a lot of juggling though.'

      I kind of agree with this but its based soley on fixtures. Currently i have little interest in Lpool players at all even if they have good fxtures.

      My current thinking is
      Man C hold and play
      Spurs hold and play, maybe fewer than City
      Man U, play one always, maybe have 2 for good fixtures
      Livepool, leave
      Arsenal leave
      Chelsea, one if you can

    5. The Hindu Monkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      I think we need to be flexible and I would also argue, more than ever, that taking hits this season is now more valuable than ever

      a minus 4 each week to cash in on what so far have been largely predictable results (chelsea aside - even spurs scraping wins at wembley is now predictable)

      1. Awesom-o
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Exactly.

        I've taken quite a few -4 hits this season and I'm well up on what I would have in terms of points and value..

      2. Alex_thekid
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        I've taken 4 or 5 -4 and I'm currently 122k

    6. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      As touched on by Jonty - GW8 WC'ers benefited from the City/Chelsea fixtures which, should allow stability of known positive fixtures until GW24/28.

      Security can equal flexibility.

    7. Feyzi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      I certainly agree with the title and the point, but my response to the ultimate question is in the negative... The Premierleague is difficult to guess based on fixtures and every team is strong in a way, so jumping from wagon to wagon, trying to guess the trend, will not suceed consistently.... For me balance and flexibility can only be accomplished through a consistent foresight of success... City have shown their splendour, if they continue as such, only trams with 3 players from them will rise in ranks. My choice would be to go for a defender a midfielder a forward. The first because it offers value, the second because it is consistent and the latter because it is consistent. That would also allow me to go Sterling to Sen or Aghüero to Jesus or Stones to Otamendi when necessary. In other words, balance and flexibility comes after you choose the correct team and then the players...

    8. The Rumour Mill
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      In a word, yes. But I think balance and flexability are important in any season, not just this one. The squad balance should cover you against the really bad scores, and the flexability allows you to jump on emerging players without the need for a hit.

      I think there are certain patterns that are starting to emerge which are useful to us:

      City: Brilliant in attack and decent in defence. Owning 2 or even 3 of their attacking assets looks a wise investment at this time.

      Utd: Brilliant in defence, owning a defender(s) or De Gea (or both) is almost a guarenteed 6 points, and they appear fixture proof. Lukaku is great because of his predictability. Captain at home against the poor sides, consider others for away games, and don't expect anything from him against fellow top 6 sides.

      Liverpool: Very unpredictable. Capable of huge hauls or unfathomable blanks against good and poor sides alike. I think you need to pick one and stick, or not own one at all. GW10 to 18, I think owning one could justify their value.

      Arsenal: Their form seems to swing with international breaks! I think they can be avoided for now, mixed fixture list too.

      Chelsea are the one that I'm a bit stuck on at the moment. champions, Great run of fixtures, but inconsistent form, and their players are expensive. Hence my question about them on last nights scoutcast. Jury still out on them, I think owning more than 1 is a risk at present. Possibly one to minitor until GW 14, when their fixtures get very good and Morata and Kante should be back by then.

      Spurs: Excellent in defence. However their full backs are rotation risks, and their centre backs rarely get attacking returns. So owning a full back isn't essential now, and if you do, be prepared to have a decent Bench. Eriksen is justifying his value at present, even as a non captain. Kane is becoming a troll. A great captain choice for "easy" away games, but not at home. Jury is out on him against good sides away.

    9. Fi_fpl addict
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      I think as fixtures and form shift some flexibility is key

      Last week I would have had a 5 2 3 if Davies had played

      on the W/C I have retained Kane and have close to the most expensive player in Def mid and Attack, no bargain striker so can downgrade in any position to shift balance and formation ......sounds simple lol

      Fab Elliot

      Cedirc Alonso Jones Ward davies

      Silva Haz

      Vardy Kane Jesus

      Carrol Choupo king

      0.00 ITB though right now

      would like 3 MC but cant fit in

    10. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    11. Deulofail
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      Balance is choosing the cheese on the middle shelf at the middle price because it seems the most sensible, safe choice. In reality, if the most expensive cheese and/or the cheapest cheese are better value, they will give you more vivid dreams on average. It's not as hard as you think to switch cheeses with your next two FTs. And even if it were difficult, the extra average potency will probably have been worth it.

      tl;dr buy the players you think will get the most points.

    12. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      4-4-3? Presumably this should be 4-3-3.

    13. Jafalad
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      No - not doing any of that hokey pokey rot.

      All you need is Coutinho, Silva and Eriksen. These three will score against anyone and have no need for continuous rot.

      I have Chopper and RLC as my two other mids.

      I have the option of playing 433/343 which is all you need. Even 352 if RLC gets gametime as a no 10.

    14. Permian23
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      At the risk of boring everyone to tears and getting banned from the site.....

      I think that we're essentially talking about the value of options here. Call options; on players we don't yet own, but want to in future. And put options, on players we already own, but may want to quickly "disown"....

      I saw a good piece once from a community member a year or two ago, saying he looks at his team selection strategy as a "constrained optimization problem". He allocated his budget amongst players expected forecast points returns over the coming weeks, knowing he had one free transfer and could buy them at 4 points each, with 2 wildcards per season. His transfers and points hits were "programmed/scheduled" by the forecast optimization.

      With fixed "prices" for transfers: 4 points, and relatively fixed prices for the players (moving slowly 0.1m per day and max 0.3m per week) then the ability to optimize your team's future points returns depends upon minimizing the "number of moves/total points hits" needed to make those changes to get the "optimal team".

      In a "template" period, the value of these options collapses to zero. in an extreme scenario there are only 11 players we want and the future forecast "optimal" team doesn't change at all, regardless of fixtures. The free transfers expire and we never spend points.

      What seems apparent to me this season are the very high number of possible high-scoring players. We're in the opposite of a template scenario (almost). The forecast points returns keep swinging, and between a higher number of players. Fixtures and form swing quickly, meaning the optimal team changes frequently.

      This means the value of options (flexibility) has exploded.

      This should mean we need to be making many more transfers than ever before. To do this in the most efficient way, we need players in specific price "brackets" in our team's to minimize the cost. And, perhaps .... holding quite a lot more "ITB" cash for more optionality.

      Jamie Vardy isn't just Vardy; he's a call option on all of the cheaper strikers, and Firmino - in one move.

      Kane might be worthless at home, but he's a call option on every other striker with one free transfer.

      Cash in the bank works the same way too. Is Keeping 1.0m quid in reserve worth more than using it to upgrade Jesus to Aguero?

      I'd like to see what the guys optimization model throws out this season....especially compared to a "template" season.

      1. HashAttack
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        I totally support the lots of transfers approach and as you say, price brackets are an important factor

        I try to avoid any bottom priced players as the generally do not increase in value and end up being dead wood in the team
        This year I was stuck with Mkhi for too long just because of his price bracket and the spare similar options
        I am also sticking with 3 big attackers as I feel that gives me greater flexibility

        The exception I would take to your comment is re ITB money .. money sitting idle whilst you could have a better team
        Having Firmino when he scored yet another 2 points whilst I had the 4M ITB for a direct update to hatrick scoring Kun was gutting

        I always have a little ITB as possible but am aware this tends to cause more hit points at the start of each season (i.e. always have to do two out / two in)

      2. Patch
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Interesting!

      3. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Some great points there - especially the flexibility that going for the more expensive options gives.

        It could be that Abraham proves a better option than Vardy over the next game as well...in which case the switch is easy from Vardy to the swansea man. But if it was the other way round you are stuck with a sub 6m striker and nowhere to run.

        The ability to downgrade players was a key part of my wildcard - whether I make the right downgrades is another issues - but at least I have the option.

  2. Analysing Expected Goal Data
    Ludo
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 2 months ago

    With the release of expected goals (xG) into the Members Area, I thought I’d try and make a case for its usefulness, by looking at a previous situation where xG data would have come in handy for FPL managers. xG measures the quality of a shot, based on over 300,000 previous shots. It gives a value which reflects the likelihood that an average player would have scored from the same chance. A shot with an xG value of 0.20 would be ‘expected’ to result in a goal 20% of the time.

    xG measures the quality of chances, placing a large emphasis on the location of a shot, but can’t account for the quality of the finisher. However, this is still a big improvement on the stats we currently have available to us. You might think that we already have Shots in the Box to show us which players are shooting from dangerous positions, and therefore are likely to threaten the goal. If that were the case, then xG might well be an unnecessary addition. However, contrary to popular belief, Shots in the Box can be one of the most misleading stats around.

    To illustrate the point, one need look no further than to one of the great anti-heroes of the 2016/17 FPL season – Salomón Rondón. The Venezuelan infamously scored a hat trick of headers in GW16 last season, at home to Swansea, the second time such a feat had been accomplished in the Premier League, and the first since Duncan Ferguson in 1997. This led to the budget-friendly 6.5m Forward receiving positive net transfers in for 5 gameweeks in a row, rising in price to 6.8m, as FPL managers rushed to take advantage of his bargain status. However, after that GW16 hat trick,
    Rondón impressively failed to find the back of the net in his next 18 games.

    A quick glance at Rondon’s underlying stats up to GW16 don’t mark him out as a dud at first glance. He was ranked eighth for Shots, and an impressive fifth for Shots in the Box. However, the warning signs were there, if you knew to look for them. Rondón had the second most Headed Goal Attempts, and these totalled 57% of his Shots in the Box, which is an unusually high figure – headers generally make up just over a quarter of penalty area attempts, as they are almost invariably taken from inside the box.

    The problem is that headers are more difficult to score than a shot with your foot from the same position. This doesn’t mean that players who rely on using their head can’t score plenty of goals, but if two players have each taken 20 Shots in the Box, but one has taken them all with their feet, and the other with their head, the stat will not reflect the difference in the quality of their chances. Last season, 12.3% of headers resulted in a goal, whereas shots taken in the box with the feet were converted at a rate of 17.0%.

    xG helps us to get around this problem – it’s more sophisticated than just accounting for shot location, and takes a range of other factors into consideration. One of these is that headers have a lower xG value than shots taken with the feet. Perhaps because of this, after GW16 of last season, Rondón had scored 7 goals, but had an xG of just 5.12, which reflects that his remarkable Shots in the Box numbers weren’t telling the full story. By using a stat that gives us a better picture of just how good a player’s opportunities have been, hopefully we can make better choices, and avoid picking this season’s Rondón!

    1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      Legend stats, Ludo.

    2. Bring Back Caldwell
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 2 months ago

      Class, cheers Ludo

      1. Bring Back Caldwell
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Based on this though wouldn't you expect aerially strong strikers to typically exceed their xG across a season?

        1. Ludo
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 2 months ago

          Good point, and the short answer is that I don't know!

          Morata has been outperforming his xG so far this season by more than just about any other player, and half his shots in the box have been headers, so maybe there's something in it - xG factors in that headers aren't as threatening on average, but if you're lethal in the air, like Morata, you're likely to exceed your xG. That's true of any quality finisher though - the likes of Kane and Lukaku outperformed their xG more than anyone else last season.

          But identifying those finishers isn't always immediately obvious, and for the vast majority of strikers, focusing on xG over Shots in the Box will give you a better picture of the quality of their opportunities. Whether you think they can make the most of those chances is the next part!

          1. Bring Back Caldwell
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Thanks for the reply. Agree with you on the part that a player's finishing plays, as Joselu has already demonstrated this season!

          2. @persecuted_by_mods
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Not just that but also the quality of the chance and cross, West Brom are more likely than Chelsea to just lump it up there and hope somebody wins it to have an attempt. Whereas Chelsea will create good heading opportunities for Morata, so it's not only the quality of the striker (Morata has great movement and heading accuracy) but also the type of cross coming in.

      2. Kloppen Schloppen
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Really useful explanation, thanks!

      3. *Reformed-Character*
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        You can only see xG for previous gameweek ?

      4. Spencer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Brilliant explanation. Thank you!

      5. *Reformed-Character*
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        You can't see xG for future fixtures ? ...

        1. GreenWindmill
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 2 months ago

          Correct, it's a measure of what actually happened not a predictor of what will happen in future.

          1. Yozzer
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Think I'll let you lot act as guniepigs before I use anything like this ;-).

      6. Patio Kev
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Love it - Just logged into Members Area especially to see all this glorious xG data, great stuff Ludo, thank you.

      7. Christina.
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        lol

        1. Gnu
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 2 months ago

          This. 🙂
          Great post though ..... 😉

      8. CL4PTRAP
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Interesting. Thanks Ludo

      9. Feyzi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Indebted to this, really

      10. John t penguin
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        this analysis is heaven sent, well done ludo. Must have been challenging to find so much data

      11. Desperately Seeking Dusan
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        this is great! I would never have looked at it this way.

      12. Badluck Jonathan
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        Brilliant as ever Ludo. Thanks

      13. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        This is interesting, Ludo. Isn't Kane having more headed goal attempts at home this season?

        1. Ludo
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 2 months ago

          Yep - 21% of Kane's shots at home so far have been headers, compared to 14% of his attempts in away games. Last season it was 11% at home and 13% away.

      14. Hibbo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        You are unbelievable.

      15. André94PT
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        You're the man, Ludo 🙂

      16. Numb
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 2 months ago

        RONDON!!

      17. Econ Man
          8 years, 2 months ago

          By the way, I have tested FFS xG numbers up against Understat (economist), and they explain less of the variation in goals (17/18 team goals for). The difference is so large, that it can be concluded the Understat model is superior (1). Hence, we should refer to the Understat numbers instead. Furthermore, I tested it up against the Michael Caley model (highly regarded). In the sample I looked at (PL 16/17 team goals for), they performed equally well.

          (1) I did a regression with team goals on xG from both models. The coefficient on the Understat model was significantly larger, hence the model is significantly better. I hope FFS will improve their model, because it’s apparently quite poor. I was shocked I could tell the quality of the models apart in such a small sample.

          1. sid22022
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Mate how can we find the understat numbers? Thanks

            1. Econ Man
                8 years, 2 months ago

                https://understat.com/

            2. Desperately Seeking Dusan
              • 14 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              I think the XG numbers come from Opta, not FFS. That’s why they are featured on MOTD this season.

              1. Econ Man
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  Thanks, I read the article featured at http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/10/05/development-squad-expected-goals/ now. Reading past comments by Mark, I was under the impression they were developing a model of their own. It seems like they were only working on presentation. Hopefully Opta will improve their xG model. It doesn’t look up to par.

            3. Twisted Saltergater
              • 16 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Great post, Ludo! Thanks for this.

            4. El Lobito 10
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Thanks

            5. Twisted Saltergater
              • 16 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Raheem Sterling

              So, according to xG, based on the position and types of chance Sterling has had this season, he is expected to have scored 4 goals. Given that he's scored 6 yet isn't considered a natural finisher, can we conclude Sterling is having a bit of a purple patch and could/should regress to the mean?

            6. Amateur Pundit Zan
              • 12 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Great work Ludo.

              I did not read all of it because it was quite long but I saw you referenced Rondon who I was thinking of getting anyway.

              Think I will go ahead and make that transfer now.

            7. Samurai Blue
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Cheers. Great info.

            8. Mingo
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              If I could auto-upvote all of your posts then I would. Most consistently useful regular poster on the site.

            9. Feyzi
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 1 month ago

              There is something wrong with all this xG/xA thing and possibly it is normal since it is new but just look at Hazard's xG/xA. For God's sake. That figure cannot be real. There certainly is something wrong.

          2. Edmond
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Jesus, is he a rotation risk this GW?

            1. Gegenpress
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              hes gonna get a hatty then taken off at 60ish for Aguero to get his match fitness back.

            2. Blanka
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Of course he is.

          3. Catastrophe
            • 14 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Any ideas chaps? Intent on losing Ritchie although he has Palace at home this weekend...1FT, 1.0M in the bank

            Elliot
            Jones, Davies, Cedric
            Silva, Ritchie, Salah, Carroll
            Jesus, Kane, Lukaku

            (Foster, Hegazi, Mariappa, RLC)

            A) Ritchie -> Zaha
            B) Save, Lukaku & Richie -> Sterling & Morata next week (0.2 spare)
            C) Lukaku -> Morata (Richie -> Sterling next week)
            D) Something else (Davies/Hegazi?)

            Cheers.

            1. Lukakuna
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Maybe save and see how Zaha does this week

            2. CRO KLOPP
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Save!!!

          4. IRBOX ⚽
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Best move here? I’m thinking of saving to re-assess and take a hit next week. 1FT, 0.4 ITB

            Elliott
            Alonso Davies Cresswell Naughton
            Eriksen Salah Sterling Carroll
            Kane Lukaku (c)

            Foster Brady Mee Quaner

            1. Man Chest Hair United
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              A second city would be good

            2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Save

          5. Man Chest Hair United
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Best captain

            A Kane
            B Jesus
            C sterling

            1. MFPL
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              A

            2. Miguel Sanchez
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              C for me

            3. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              B

          6. MFPL
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Hold my FT or is there something I need to change?

            Elliot (Pope)
            Alonso Otamendi Cedric (Simpson Ward)
            Salah Silva Richarlison Choupo-Moting (Carrick)
            Kane Jesus Vardy
            0.1ITB 1FT

            1. DeathoftheParty
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Hold

          7. Yome
            • 14 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            C, i will captain Jesus as I don't have Sterling

            1. Yome
              • 14 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Reply fail

          8. Rupert The Horse
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Looks like I'm safe to do my transfers now. Sterling and Kun in, hope he plays as he was rested.
            Off on holiday, although the plague has broken out in the Seychelles.

            1. Old Wulfrunian
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Are you sure Sterling will start?

              1. Rupert The Horse
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 12 Years
                8 years, 2 months ago

                Subbed off on 70 mins so that's good enough for me.

            2. Going Home
              • 14 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Kun a big risk IMO - nto played a single minute yet. If I was a betting man, I would expect 20-25 mins off the bench this week and then back starting the following week

          9. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Anything you would change here? Who is best to Captain? 🙂 Eyeing up a possible Vardy+Hazard > Morata+Coutinho for GW10 (depending on the weekend ofc).

            Elliot
            Otamendi • Bavies • Cédric • Yedlin
            Sterling • Hazard • Richarlison
            Vardy • Lukaku • Kane

            (Fab / TC / RLC / Ward)

            1. We Will Klopp you
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Nah and captain Kaku imo. Sounds like a good couple of moves.

            2. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Mate try and roll some FTs lol you just WC'd!

              1. RAFA THE GAFFA
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 2 months ago

                I am rolling my FT, those moves are possibilities for GW10 (depending on the weekend), as I said.

            3. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Kaku surely udde

              1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 2 months ago

                dude*

          10. We Will Klopp you
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 2 months ago

            Looking at this for gw11, yes I know things could come up but worth having a plan in place, outgoers are Vardy (gw10) and Clark (gw11), means no Aguero but I have 2 City so perhaps not wise to put all eggs in one basket and Kaku's predictability and consistency is nothing to be scoffed at

            Fabianski (Elliott)
            Davies Jones DANIELS (Ward Rosenoir)
            Salah Silva Sterling Choupo (Chalobah)
            Kane Lukaku FIRMINO

            1. We Will Klopp you
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Thoughts?

            2. Pranav Santhosh
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              I personally wouldn't want to bring firmino in. Would rather a cheaper 3rd forward like abraham or Joselu

              1. We Will Klopp you
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 2 months ago

                Firmino surely outscores them? He usually does well when we haul and that could happen a lot over the coming gwks

                1. Pranav Santhosh
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  He is a good option that will definitely outscore Joselu and abraham but I think Alonso is a must have pick when Kante comes back and I think best way to found that is firmino to a 5.5 option.

                  1. We Will Klopp you
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Hmm, I'll see then but that's certainly an option,

                2. Pranav Santhosh
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  But the moves you have suggested above are very good only I am looking at a different plan. But firmino and Daniels in are both good moves

                  1. We Will Klopp you
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Cheers Pranav

                    1. Pranav Santhosh
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      You should link your team in your profile. You seem to give lots of good advice on most articles and it would be nice to see the team you have and transfers you have made etc

                      1. We Will Klopp you
                        • 9 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Will do at some point Pranav but currently in the process of resurrecting my season, got off to a torrid start with no Kaku after a devil whispered into my ear & a horrible starting squad but steadily climbing so will get it done once I steady the ship

                        1. Pranav Santhosh
                          • 9 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          That's fair enough. Good luck for the rest of the season 🙂

                          1. We Will Klopp you
                            • 9 Years
                            8 years, 2 months ago

                            Cheers pal, good luck to you too

                        2. MTPockets
                            8 years, 2 months ago

                            I'm @ 3.2m so far this season. Disastrous in choices, captains, injuries, everything - but everyone's far more bothered about their own team.

              2. RAFA THE GAFFA
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 2 months ago

                As it stands now, they look good moves! I imagine too much will change by then that you will want something else! Lukaku or Kane will likely want to be Jesus, Kun or Morata

                1. We Will Klopp you
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  Cheers Rafa, not afraid to take hits if it means securing a team I'm happy with so if needs be will bring Aguero and Firmino in for a hit next gw but leaning towards sticking with Kaku for now

              3. CRO KLOPP
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 2 months ago

                Good moves,I like those three S in midfield

                1. We Will Klopp you
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  Cheers mate

            3. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 2 months ago

              Lost on last post.

              Awkward situation......

              Do I do ;

              A) Play Mee

              B) take a -4 to upgrade Mbemba to a 4.5 def such as Fernandez and play him over mee. Long term this options better but a -4 for a defender never really works.

              1. We Will Klopp you
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 2 months ago

                Probably B if it's a long term move, you wouldn't be expecting it to pay off over 1 gw

                1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  That's my thoughts too.

                  A -4 for a defender just feels dirty though 😆 even if it is a long term option!

                  Fernandez as the best 4.5 def?

                  1. We Will Klopp you
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Probably

              2. MTPockets
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  Aren't Mee/Mbemba your 4th/5th defenders?

                  1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Yea unfortunately. Put all my budget into midfield and forwards for big 3 hitters up top which has worked really well for me these last 3 weeks.

                    But it's given me an issue this week 😆

                    1. MTPockets
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Guess you mean no. But if they're the only options (another non-playing def) then unless anything said about Mbemba in press conference may as well take the hit for longer term.

                        1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 11 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Sorry I've confused you.

                          Mee and mbemba are my 3rd and 4th, my 5th is a non player.

                          Looks like I'm doing mbemba to Fernandez then.

                          Cheers bud.

                • Old Wulfrunian
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  Ramsey->Antonio or Zaha?

                  1. Tommyboy
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Zaha for me

                  2. Eze Really?
                    • 11 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Or Lanzini. I fancy Antonio who has always served me well and Hammers will be on the up now.

                  3. Old Wulfrunian
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    cheers both

                  4. Gegenpress
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Zaha, or Richarlison and save the cash

                  5. Lukakuna
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    I'm looking at Richarlison for Ramsey

                • Tommyboy
                  • 14 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  Looking for a 4.7 or less defender and have seen Gomez/Moreno who have nice fixtures after Spurs

                  Which one do you lot think is more nailed on for game time?

                  1. We Will Klopp you
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Moreno, only missed one PL game and Robertson isn't even getting a look in in the champions league

                  2. Tommyboy
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Replying to myself: Naughton seems to be popular but doesn't have amazing fixtures

                  3. Gegenpress
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Ward

                • the snazzy viking
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  Does anyone else here have no players left from their GW1 team?

                  1. the snazzy viking
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    In other words is there a player in your GW1 team that you haven't transferred out yet

                  2. More Tragic
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Your summer was wasted I see.

                    😉

                    1. the snazzy viking
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      I thought Wijnaldum would be the new King and KDB was essential

                  3. Eze Really?
                    • 11 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    ME. And I got 93 points the 1st week!

                  4. Miguel Sanchez
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Foster, Eriksen, Firmino, Kolasinac, Carroll (have all survived GW3 WC too) and Jesus was in my GW1 team but has since left and come back in (twice)

                  5. the Penman
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    No, but I’ve not wildcarded yet. So my keepers have remained and Alonso, Lukaku and Ramsey are still hanging around.

                  6. FPL ZB
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Elliott, Carroll, Kane and Kaku

                • Seamy
                  • 14 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  Alonso & Vardy -> Daniels and Jesus for a free?
                  I will then downgrade Lukaku to Morata next week

                  1. Lukakuna
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    I'd do it!

                  2. Pat Bonner
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    I’ve looked at getting rid of alonso and vardy as well but thinking I will stick for now. Could easily out score Daniels and Jesus this week

                • LaCazettio
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 2 months ago

                  Will Aguero start??

                  1. james 101
                    • 13 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Just asked the same.

                    I think yes but I'd love some insight...

                  2. More Tragic
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    probably

                    1. james 101
                      • 13 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Presser on Friday, right?

                      1. More Tragic
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        not sure if Thurs or Fri

                  3. Royal5
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Reckon so, been on the bench in the last 2. Jesus played a lot. Never know with Pep though.

                  4. MTPockets
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Don't think so.

                      1. More Tragic
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        😯

                    • LaCazettio
                      • 8 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Even though he has lack of match fitness???

                      1. james 101
                        • 13 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        The only way to get that...

                      2. More Tragic
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        It's not like he hasn't played in months.

                        I'm confident he'll start

                        1. SADIO SANÉ
                          • 10 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          how can you be confident?

                          1. More Tragic
                            • 10 Years
                            8 years, 2 months ago

                            Because I am. Where's the sense in bringing him on for 20 mins?

                            1. SADIO SANÉ
                              • 10 Years
                              8 years, 2 months ago

                              yeah, that isn't a very good reason for being confident.

                              1. Gegenpress
                                • 9 Years
                                8 years, 2 months ago

                                Where's the sense in starting him when he's not match fit and they're playing well!?

                                IMO it's a straight 50/50 on whether he'll start or not! I don't think anyone can be 100% sure! Not until the team sheets are out.

                        2. Gegenpress
                          • 9 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Bring him in and captain him then

                      3. Neeskens Under Matip
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        He was in a car crash a few weeks ago?

                    • Gegenpress
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      No one knows mate.

                      Reason to start - Jesus minutes / Aguero declared himself fit. Sane played 90 and may be rested?

                      Reason not to start - Match fit? Might be eased in for the last 30. Usually what happens when players come back from injury and not a huge game to risk him in.

                      1. LaCazettio
                        • 8 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Think he may start alongside Jesus?

                        1. Gegenpress
                          • 9 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Potentially but flip side is they've played well with 2 wingers either side of Jesus. Also is Aguero really match fit yet? Being fit and match fit are different? Is there any reason to risk him from the off as city aren't really playing badly so he could be eased back into action.

                          Flip side on that is Sane played the 90 could Aguero maybe replace him or is Jesus due a rest? It really is a 50/50!

                    • Pat Bonner
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 14 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Everyone seems to think so, and they might be right, but he’s not played a minute since his injury despite being on the bench twice. To me that means he’s no where near full fitness so would be surprised if he starts this weekend. More likely a cameo and then a start in the cup mid week

                      1. Neeskens Under Matip
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        So you lose your match fitness over 2 weeks? I'd be more worried about his broken ribs and those Burnley defenders!

                        1. Pat Bonner
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 14 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Never mentioned match fitness but yes you do lose it in 3 weeks, his last game was 26th sept

                    • Heavy Data
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      I think Pep will start Jesus and bring him off at 60 minutes for Aguero, to ease him back in. Or they will both start and Jesus will be subbed off for someone like Sane, who will start on the bench.

                    • LaCazettio
                      • 8 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Reason being is I have Jesus, Laca and Kane up top and wanted to bring in Sterling but hesitant that Aguero will take place for Jesus...

                      Not sure whether to take a bigger risk and switch Kane for Aguero!

                      1. Pat Bonner
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Go for sterling

                        1. LaCazettio
                          • 8 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          In place of Mikhi 😉

                    • FFPro
                      • 11 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      I think it's likely, in place of Sane or Jesus.

                      1. Neeskens Under Matip
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Why would Pep risk it?

                        First thing I'd do if I was Mee or Tarkowski is a discreet elbow into Aguero's ribs...

                        1. Annie
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 13 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Pointless conjecture imo. You could say that of any GW, we don't know how tender his ribs are.

                            1. Neeskens Under Matip
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 14 Years
                              8 years, 2 months ago

                              Takes 6 weeks for a broken rib to heal...

                            2. Annie
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 13 Years
                              8 years, 2 months ago

                              why would he be on the bench if he wasn't an option?

                              1. Neeskens Under Matip
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                • 14 Years
                                8 years, 2 months ago

                                No idea - keep the opposition guessing?

                                I'm sure he can play through the pain if needed, but given the amount of talent Pep has at his disposal, why risk it in a physical encounter?

                                Depending on the location, another serious impact could lead to a pneumothorax:

                                https://www.healthlinkbc.ca/health-topics/zt1003spec

                                Not much fun...

                            3. Ode
                              • 8 Years
                              8 years, 2 months ago

                              He's training, been on the bench & Aguero claimed himself that he's ready. It was probably just a minor hairline fracture in one of his ribs if he's already training, you don't recover from fully fractured bones in just 2 weeks

                  5. Botman and Robben
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    1 FT 0.0 ITB.

                    1. Do I save FT or do Davies -> Jones?
                    2. Play Carroll over teammate Fernandez?

                    Fabianski
                    D.Luiz Davies Stones Fernandez
                    D.Silva GroB Coutinho
                    Jesus Kane Vardy

                    Elliot T.Carroll Richarlison Mee

                    1. Miguel Sanchez
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      1 looks good
                      2 would play Carroll

                      1. Miguel Sanchez
                        • 9 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Scratch that - play Richarlison against Chelsea

                    2. james 101
                      • 13 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      I just lost Davies and am happy I own Jones. Take what you will from that.

                    3. Botman and Robben
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Cheers.

                  6. Lukakuna
                    • 8 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Any suggestion would be much appreciated!

                    A) Kane > Aguero
                    B) Ramsey > Richarlison
                    C) Get Silva somehow for a hit
                    D) Save ft

                    Elliot Begovic
                    Davies* Jones Cedric Suttner - Long
                    Eriksen Sterling Ramsey* - Carrol*l RLC
                    Kane Kaku Vardy

                    Cheers!

                  7. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Who comes in for Ozil in draft?

                    A) Zaha
                    B) Antonio
                    C) Choupo-Moting
                    D) Shaqiri
                    E) Keep

                    1. Pat Bonner
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 14 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      A or B

                    2. Clifford☯
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      A

                    3. Hasselbaink Forever
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 12 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      A

                  8. SADIO SANÉ
                    • 10 Years
                    8 years, 2 months ago

                    Aguero is very tempting, but this is exactly why I got rid of Jesus in the first place..how can you confidently captain either of them? I know they can score in limited minutes but a benching is always possible..back to Kane & Morata and be done with it?

                    1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Don't buy don't sell policy for me with Kun and Jesus. Wait and see. Sterling is nailed in my opinion. Great value.

                      1. SADIO SANÉ
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        have Jesus and Sterling atm, Sterling (c) could happen I guess

                        1. We Will Klopp you
                          • 9 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          I'm giving him 1 more gw then if he does well again potentially captaining him vs WBA

                    2. We Will Klopp you
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Another reason why I may just keep Kaku

                      1. We Will Klopp you
                        • 9 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Helps that I have silva and Sterling so already set up to be Kunless atm

                        1. SADIO SANÉ
                          • 10 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          yeah kinda wish I had got Silva too tbh

                          1. We Will Klopp you
                            • 9 Years
                            8 years, 2 months ago

                            Him and Sterling have been superb value thus far, almost matching eriksen too at a million or more cheaper

                    3. Jarnathan
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      If you have one - wait and see. Before his injury, Aguero became the clear favourite.

                      1. SADIO SANÉ
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        yeah, makes sense

                    4. Pat Bonner
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 14 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Definitely value in the city mids so getting Kane and morata is a great option

                    5. MTPockets
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Personally think non-Aguero team been just as good, so he gets a run out & EFL game for match fitness. Then from following week more up in the air. I hate owning Kane right now, and want to see Morata play fit first.

                      • Pranav Santhosh
                        • 9 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Kane and lukaku imo. Chelsea don't look good enough imo to justify morata. But the fixtures coming up look really good

                        1. SADIO SANÉ
                          • 10 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          hm Morata is a much better option that Lukaku imo

                          1. Pranav Santhosh
                            • 9 Years
                            8 years, 2 months ago

                            Morata +1M is probably a better option than lukaku considering fixtures coming up. Probably just bias of being a United fan the reason I'm not letting kaku go 🙂

                            1. SADIO SANÉ
                              • 10 Years
                              8 years, 2 months ago

                              😀 to be fair, Kaku is a great captain option this week!

                              1. Pranav Santhosh
                                • 9 Years
                                8 years, 2 months ago

                                That's the main reason I'm keeping him this week. Will most likely get rid of either Kane or lukaku for gw10 to free up funds

                    6. Gorbitz
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Anybody who saw the CRY-CHE game in the wknd, how did Zaha look? Is he worth it now, or better to wait n see?

                      1. Neeskens Under Matip
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Looked good - but it is Palace.

                        Might change when Tekkers is fit though? Which might be sooner that first thought:

                        http://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/653065/Crystal-Palace-injury-boost-Christian-Benteke-Premier-League-Roy-Hodgson

                        1. Gorbitz
                          • 9 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Thanks. Yes, I think I'll hold for now

                    7. GS456
                      • 10 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Save FT lads?

                      Elliott
                      Davies, Wimmer, Naughton
                      Eriksen, Sterling, Ritchie, Choupo
                      Jesus, Kane, Lukaku (c)

                      Krul, RLC, Mee, Martina

                      1. GS456
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Do have 1.4 ITB

                      2. Joggers Nipple
                        • 16 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Save or sort Martina out

                      3. Gorbitz
                        • 9 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Yes

                    8. Jonesfromthere
                      • 13 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      If I'm using the free hit chip, can I make unlimited transfers until the deadline, like with a wildcard? Don't want to make transfers and be stuck.

                    9. the Penman
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 14 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Does Aguero’s return impact Sterling's potential? Is Raheem likely to get shifted away from being involved in the goalmouth action more if both Kun and Jesus are up front?

                      1. applebonkers
                        • Has Moderation Rights
                        • 16 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        not sure pep will make his gw1 & 2 error of trying to play 2 CFs for a while yet

                        1. Ludo
                          • 12 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Think things have changed since then. They played both up front in the 3-5-2 for the Brighton, Everton and Liverpool games, with mixed results.

                          Since Feyenoord, though, they've played 4-3-3 every match. Ignore the League Cup game against West Brom, and Ederson, Walker, Stones, Otamendi, Mendy/Delph*, Fernandinho, De Bruyne and D Silva have been ever-present.

                          *Delph replacing Mendy since his injury

                          The only changes have been to the attackers, where three of Aguero, Jesus, Sane, Sterling and B Silva have played. With Aguero out, there's been a settled line-up, but now I think there'll be changes to keep everyone fresh.

                          One of Aguero and Jesus will be up front, but they can play together with great success, if Jesus is in one of the wide positions - as in the 4-0 win at Feyenoord, 6-0 at Watford, and 2-0 against Shakhtar. It also worked for the final two games last season, where Aguero played centrally and Jesus wide in a 4-3-3 in a 3-1 win against West Brom, and a 5-0 win at Watford.

                      2. GS456
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        All will be revealed. I’m saving the transfer as a jesus and sterling owner with enough in the bank for Aguero. And reassessing after this weeks team is out

                    10. applebonkers
                      • Has Moderation Rights
                      • 16 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      a blunt factor in the ben davies thing. rose is a better left back.

                      so many conveniently forgetting who was voted the league's best left back for the past 2 seasons just because davies has been getting lots of fpl points in some juicy fixtures in the meantime.

                      1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
                        • 9 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Very true. Davies will probably leave my team for Ottamendi.

                      2. Royal5
                        • 14 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        There will be rotation. But no way Davies loses his place in the team just like that. Atm it's Davies' spot to lose.

                      3. More Tragic
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Not a cat's chance in hell Rose simply walks straight back in.

                      4. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Is Rose as good/sharp/strong as, the last time he played? Has Davies not, improved/sharpened/strengthened through the run of games since?

                        It's been a very long time.

                        1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
                          • 10 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Didn't even feature 50% of last season, Jan 31st he last played PL.

                        2. applebonkers
                          • Has Moderation Rights
                          • 16 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          is an unknown, why i wouldn't move davies unless on a wildcard. davies hasn't got any quicker or more tenacious, 2 factors which make rose like catnip for poch. davies is in the driving seat due to superior fitness, that's it for now.

                          1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
                            • 10 Years
                            8 years, 2 months ago

                            Cheers AB

                      5. applebonkers
                        • Has Moderation Rights
                        • 16 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        also this new narrative that rose is most likely to get the easier games, far too simplistic as him and davies are too different attribute wise. horses for courses, rose would 100% start vs liverpool on the weekend if he's 100%, doesn't matter how well davies has done vs huddersfield, points trump loyalty

                      6. Ruth_NZ
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        It's just that some people need new software, AB.

                        It's convenient to think that teams have a first XI who are "nailed". But the bigger teams - especially the CL teams - just don't. The concept of "first choice" is essentially obsolete at the top teams (with some specific exceptions of course).

                        The PL is about to enter an unprecedented fixture compression from GW12-22 and there will be big rotation pressure, especially for teams with CL/EL/LC to deal with as well. Some of the managers concerned (Pep, Klopp) are more disposed to rotate than others but they will all do it to one degree or another. In the case of Pochettino his most likely rotation point is the fullbacks/wingbacks, always has been.

                        So, you either have to make some maybe more prosaic picks who will reliably play or factor in the rotation risk with the players you'd like. Simple as that really. The one thing that won't help is to pretend that the problem isn't there.

                    11. Clifford☯
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Elliot (Pope)
                      Azpilicueta Davies Otamendi Cedric (Dunk)
                      Eriksen Hazard Silva Choupo-Moting
                      Kane Vardy (Quaner)

                      1 FT, 0.2 ITB

                      A) Save FT
                      B) Davies ➡ Jones
                      C) anything else?

                    12. TeddiPonza
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 15 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Would you do Mkhi and Laca to Sterling and Jesus for free?

                      1. Super Silva
                        • 12 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Hellz yeah

                      2. GS456
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        Yes

                    13. Super Silva
                      • 12 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      So I am 50 points behind in my ML. I know it's early days but it's not like me. Any advice with 2fts ? Many thanks. God Bless.

                      Fabianski
                      Maguire Luiz Ward Davies
                      Rich Hazard Sterling
                      Kane Lukaku Vardy

                      Elliot Carroll Mbemba Surman

                      1. GS456
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        TOo much at the back

                        1. Super Silva
                          • 12 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Davies to Jones maybe leaves 0.6 to upgrade elsewhere ?

                          1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
                            • 10 Years
                            8 years, 2 months ago

                            Bet it doesn't

                    14. AllINeedIsCoffee
                      • 11 Years
                      8 years, 2 months ago

                      Jesus or Hazard as a long term aspect for the remainder of this season?

                      1. Sanchit
                        • 10 Years
                        8 years, 2 months ago

                        If you want to just take one and leave for the long term, then definitely Hazard.

                        If you want a short term captain option, Jesus.

                        1. AllINeedIsCoffee
                          • 11 Years
                          8 years, 2 months ago

                          Thank you for your input.

                          The thing is that I play the standard fantasy format where I'd not be touching Hazard right now for his price-tag but I also play in a draft league where I'm being given a choice between them. I can let Jesus go for Hazard right now.

                          Jesus is going to score a lot but will be sharing minutes once Aguero is back and Hazard is finally playing 90 minutes again so I'm leaning towards Hazard but very much appreciate the input here.