Opinion
2 November 2017 948 comments
Crab Dogg Crab Dogg
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Fantasy Premier League’s reigning champion, Ben Crabtree, is finding his title defence…problematic.

But after a disastrous start, recovery is in the air, although it’s a slow and often painful process.

In the second of a series of articles from the champion, Ben details where it’s gone wrong and how he’s attempting to put it right.

Back to basics

After Gameweek 4, I was just inside the top three million.

Even though it was early in the season, it felt like all credibility gained last year had disappeared.

The outlandish ambition of back-to-back wins was well and truly over, so the plan was to hit a few good scores, get back on track, sneak up the rankings, win a few mini-leagues and achieve a respectable ‘season after’ finish.

To some extent, that happened up to Gameweek 7 when an Alvaro Morata hat-trick helped me to a 130,000 Gameweek rank, which was followed by a correct Harry Kane captaincy call to put me up to 1.6 million overall.

My next move was to use two free transfers and one hit to swap Christian Eriksen, Jese and Marcos Alonso to Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane and a defender, with Nicolas Otamendi a consideration.

I had planned it all, and it paid off massively…..for those that did it.

The Morata injury threw me, and I somehow ended up with Eden Hazard and Dominic Calvert-Lewin in my team, while omitting City players altogether.

I’d been three transfers away from how I wanted my team to be, only to move another two transfers in the wrong direction.

The City demolition hurt and, after bringing in Sterling for a blank while Sane continued to pound big scores, I’d fallen back to thinking about the previous Gameweeks rather than the upcoming ones.

Now placde just inside 1.6 million, things have improved. But there’s still much to be done.

From the distant memory of last season, the method for success in this game can be simplified into two rather obvious decisions: pick good captains and make good transfers.

My Captains

For Gameweeks 5 to 10, I made the following captaincy choices:

Gameweek Captain Points Top in team Points
5 Kane 2 Lukaku 12
6 Kane 13 Morata 17
7 Kane 13 Kane 13
8 Kane 2 Eriksen 11
9 Morata 1 Kane 16
10 Morata 5 Kolasinac 14


Each Gameweek, I’ve had the option of a great captain pick but only made the right, or a high-scoring, choice twice out of six.

In a Gameweek with no obvious captains, Sead Kolasinac could have even been chosen this week – similar situation last season had me captaining Leighton Baines for 15 points. Attacking defenders should be considered for the few occasions when the big-hitting attackers look unlikely to produce.

Forty seven extra points were achievable across those six Gameweeks just from picking the correct captain alone. I need to be closer to the maximum over the next five.

For the upcoming Gameweeks my plan for the armband currently looks like this:

Gameweek Option 1 Fixture Option 2 Fixture
11 Kane CRY Aguero ARS
12 Aguero lei Kane ars
13 Kane WBA Aguero hud
14 Aguero SOT Morata SWA
15 Morata NEW Kane WAT



The faith in Kane, who appears to have made a full recovery from his hamstring injury, is obvious. For the Palace clash, he may have a relatively low ownership given that he’s dropped under 30%.

I’ll always be worried about captaining Sergio Aguero, but the potential is huge. Already with a 20-point tally under his belt, in this City team, we can surely expect further big hauls to come.

This could change should Romelu Lukaku come in to my team for his favourable fixtures.

My Transfers

For GW5 – 10 my transfers have been:

Gameweek Transfer out Transfer in Immediate points Average GW points
5 Chicharito Morata 1 6.33
6 Hegazi Kolasinac 6 5.6
7 – – – –
8 Jese

Morata

Hazard

C-Lewin

2

5

2

5

9 Hazard

C-Lewin

Alonso

Sterling

Morata

Ward

Benched

1

1

3.5

3

6

10 Lukaku Aguero Benched 0


I looked at the immediate gains and then compared them to the overall points per Gameweek that they provided when in my team. I feel that this gives me a clear indication of whether a transfer has been worthwhile or not.

As a result, there has been very little immediate success, but I’m hoping Kolasinac, Morata, Aguero, Sterling and Stephen Ward are good picks that will pay off over time.

Kolasinac’s 14 points may have convinced me to stick with him through the next two tricky fixtures where before I was looking at alternatives.

For upcoming fixtures, assuming I keep three big forwards, my transfers are likely to be based around swapping defenders as they come to the end of their shelf life. I’ll also be tweaking the midfield.

The returns from Ruben Loftus-Cheek as a fourth midfielder will play a key part in whether to switch money from defence to midfield.

My Targets

Currently, I’m looking at the following players:

Defenders

Charlie Daniels (4.9) – With six strong fixtures in a row, he finally looks poised for a run of clean sheets and possibly further attacking returns.

DeAndre Yedlin (4.4) – The full-back is cheap and could be a long-term defender to rotate. Has been getting stronger Bonus Points System (BPS) scores than Jamaal Lascelles of late.

Jamaal Lascelles (4.7) – The Magpies skipper is possibly a touch too expensive, and this would also give me a double with the Newcastle defence (I already have Rob Elliot). However, the goal threat on the end of set-plays is tempting.

Federico Fernandez (4.5) – He has some kind fixtures and is favoured in the BPS in a clean sheet scenario. However, he would require a rotation partner.

Nicolas Otamendi (5.9) – The City defender doesn’t allow for money to be moved into midfield, but the clean sheet and goal potential is obvious.

Kyle Walker (6.6) – I prefer the right-back to Otamendi, but he comes at a premium. Maybe 0.7m extra is too much, but he might just finish on around 170 – 180 points if he can avoid rotation. Four assists in nine games screams of further big hauls to come.

Chris Smalling (5.3) – If he plays, he’s another bargain defender with Jones. I bought Jones for 5.0, so 10.3 invested could return 12+ points regularly. He seems unlikely to retain his start, but I’m monitoring the situation.

Kevin Wimmer (4.4) – Although Stoke City have been abysmal at the back, they may be due their familiar cyclical run of form where they suddenly become hard to beat – particularly with Ryan Shawcross now fit. Keenly priced, Wimmer is another to consider if he can secure his start.

Midfielders

Leroy Sane (8.7) – Not signing Sane to this point is my major regret. I will possibly leave him for another Gameweek, with Christian Eriksen hosting Palace, plus I already have Sterling and want to avoid a transfer hit.

Wilfried Zaha (6.9) – For Gameweek 13, he looks to be an option that I need to plan for. Particularly with Christian Benteke’s return some weeks away.

Aaron Ramsey (7.0) – The same applies to the Arsenal man, who, like Zaha, is hinting at outstanding value in midfield.

Eden Hazard (10.6) – I’ve chosen Morata over him for now, but his form in a potential No 10 role demands monitoring.

Pascal Gross (5.8) – He has become annoyingly consistent and has made me regret that I doubted his ability to return in a shot-shy Brighton side.

Ademola Lookman (5.2) – As an Everton fan, I really like Lookman and can’t believe how little he’s featured so far. If he starts a game and does well, he will become an astute cut-price signing.

Forwards
Romelu Lukaku (11.6) – At some point, he is going to have to come back in. It’s just a question of for who and when.

I’ve currently got a few options open, but none of them excite without taking hits. So I’ll probably hold the transfer this week, monitoring the players above to see who emerges as the most urgent.

All in all, the first ten Gameweeks have been my worst run of form since the Luis Suarez 2013/14 season.

Maybe I should have quit, left on a high and then I wouldn’t have found myself glued expectantly to Burnley versus Newcastle on Monday night.

But football isn’t as good without FPL, so I’ll just have to keep battling through each Gameweek. With so many options this season, there’s still plenty of potential for big swings in either direction. I just need to hope the next falls in my favour.

A few simple tweaks can make all the difference. For Gameweek 11, captaining Kane or Aguero and banking my transfer is going back to basics.

Hopefully it pays off.

948 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. JJeyy
    9 years, 7 days ago

    who scores more:
    A) Alli -4
    B) Duffy

    1. VardysParty
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Alli for me

    2. Pea Soup
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Crystal ball

  2. VardysParty
    9 years, 7 days ago

    1 FT and 0 ITB

    Fabianski (Nordfelt)
    Azpi, Otamendi, Cedric, Ward, (Hunemeir)
    Salah, Sterling, Richarlison, (Carroll, RLC)
    Kane, Aguero, Morata

    Any suggestions or save FT?

    Cheers

    1. samaael
      9 years, 7 days ago

      id prolly save though I'm thinking sterling out

  3. MarkoSD
    9 years, 7 days ago

    ddg to vorm?

    1. Pinky Blinders
      9 years, 7 days ago

      I don’t even know who that is

    2. Yellin' in my Ear
      9 years, 7 days ago

      No way

    3. Longlatini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Erm,no

  4. Athletic Nasherbo
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Need an Otamendi replacement so I can get Kane... which one?

    A) Daniels- Could fall in price and Bournemouth poor form. Nailed.

    B) Maguire- Manager who keeps defence tight and he has goal threat but tough away fixtures in next four.

    C) Van Dijk- Nailed and a goal threat. Tough fixtures every other week but seems to rotate well with my defence.

    D) someone else. Have Jones Ward Dunk Yedlin.

    Thanks!

    1. George James
      9 years, 7 days ago

      A,

      Thoughts on my question below?

    2. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Id be keeping Otamendi

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        9 years, 7 days ago

        Unfortunately it’s the best way in my opinion... not keen on it but Kane worth it.

    3. The Albatross
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Daniels or Naughton/Fernandez for me

    4. samaael
      9 years, 7 days ago

      a. but id be keeping otamendi

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        9 years, 7 days ago

        Thanks

    5. Batchain
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Gomez (Liv) 4.5m

    6. Lets jump straight into it.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      B

    7. Pea Soup
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Vert

  5. George James
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Elliot
    Cedric Stones Azpil Jones
    Salad Richarlison Silva
    Kane Jesus Vardy

    JP Tarroll RLC Huney

    A) Jesus >> Kun
    B) Save and do Jesus to Kaku next week

    1. samaael
      9 years, 7 days ago

      save

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        9 years, 7 days ago

        B

    2. George James
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Cheers guys

    3. @NF_Janner
      9 years, 7 days ago

      B

    1. The Albatross
      9 years, 7 days ago

      so he's back, but do I start with him or Calvert-Lewin?

      1. Yozzer
        9 years, 7 days ago

        Probably Calvert imo

    2. GENERATION X
      9 years, 7 days ago

      yeah that one pointer is secured

      1. Yozzer
        9 years, 7 days ago

        Mate that 1 pointer is 1 point more than I would have . If Davies benched and kol out I have only 2 playing defenders 🙁

  6. samaael
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Elliot
    Mee/ Alonso/ P.Jones
    Sterling/ Salah/ Silva/ Richarlison
    Kane/ Morata/ Joselu

    Foster/ Otamendi/ Chalobah/ Mbemba

    0.8ITB 1FT

    a) Joselu to Abraham (which means I will take a hit next week to get Lukaku in)
    b) save
    c) sterling to someone like Mahrez? (which means I will take a hit next week to get Lukaku in

  7. Hybrid.power
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Is Kane going up in price tonight?

    1. samaael
      9 years, 7 days ago

      yeah I think so

    2. Duffy Dunk
      9 years, 7 days ago

      If you want him, get him now.

    3. Fred54
      9 years, 7 days ago

      0.2 rise in one night mate.

      1. Pea Soup
        9 years, 7 days ago

        This is a massive load of b******t

        1. George Sillett
          9 years, 7 days ago

          It's also a wind up. Lol.

        2. Fred54
          9 years, 7 days ago

          Chill, sarcasm.

          1. George Sillett
            9 years, 7 days ago

            He's not the sharpest tool tbh.

  8. Deulofail
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Only one offside from Walcott today, bringing his total to 8 in Europa league at a rate of only 2 per game....

    1. Deulofail
      9 years, 7 days ago

      8.

      That's the total number of goals Arsenal have scored in the Europa League.

      If Sane continued with his current rate in the Premier League, he would need to play 4,704 mins to match Walcott's Europa league total of 8 (in 352 mins).

    2. Fred54
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Yeah but Walcott's yung and lernin (sic).

      He's 28?!

  9. The White Pele
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Silva > Salah (-4) ?

    1. samaael
      9 years, 7 days ago

      nah

    2. rjcv177
      9 years, 7 days ago

      yay, go for it. play free of guilt

    3. Pea Soup
      9 years, 7 days ago

      No way

  10. Pinky Blinders
    9 years, 7 days ago

    You know that feeling you get when everyone and their brother is telling you something is bound to happen?

    1. Longlatini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Brave not to though right?

      1. Pinky Blinders
        9 years, 7 days ago

        Just feels like a set up. Brave if it works out, stupid if it doesn’t. That’s just the nature of calls like these.

    2. George Sillett
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Yep not to believe it.TBH there's a lot of shit like that on here. Man City line up predictions being a case in point.....

    3. Longlatini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Groupthink a powerful thing but when something looks good maybe it just is?

    4. Batchain
      9 years, 7 days ago

      If anyone is making firm informed predictions about the Man C lineup, you know they know not of what they speak.

    5. Longlatini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      If sport always went as we thought nobody would watch it!

  11. Delph & Safety
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Eriksen or Salah for next few weeks?

    1. samaael
      9 years, 7 days ago

      salah

  12. ooooo
    9 years, 7 days ago

    g2g?

    Elliot
    Azpi Jones Ward
    Salah Silva Richarlison Choupo
    Kane(C) Jesus Vardy

    Ryan Dunk Otamendi Carroll

  13. Kane Train
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Trade out Morata or Jesus for Harry Kane.

    1. samaael
      9 years, 7 days ago

      morata

    2. Deulofail
      9 years, 7 days ago

      I did Jesus. But if you want short-term gains, then maybe Morata is best to sell

    3. Rainer
      9 years, 7 days ago

      If you plan on keeping the other long term then sell Jesus.

    4. rjcv177
      9 years, 7 days ago

      sell jesus and see if Pep comes back to 2uptop
      If he keeps the wingers plan, Kun and Jesus can really play 50/50 of the games 🙁

  14. Rainer
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Bench Maguire, right?

    - Otamendi (ARS)
    - Jones (che)
    - Maguire (stk)

    1. samaael
      9 years, 7 days ago

      yeha prolly

    2. Lets jump straight into it.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      nah

  15. Athletic Nasherbo
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Play 2:

    A) Ward Sou (A)
    B) Yedlin Bou (H) and have Elliot
    C) Daniels New (A)

    Cheers!

    1. Dickie1898
      9 years, 7 days ago

      A & C, play elliot

    2. Bellerinmondo
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Ward and Daniels

    3. Rainer
      9 years, 7 days ago

      A & C!

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        9 years, 7 days ago

        Cheers all!

  16. Dickie1898
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Who to start at the back guys? Currently on.....

    Eliott
    Jones VVD Fernandez
    Hazard Salah Richarlison Gross
    (K)ane Jesus Vardy

    (Fabianski Ward Wimmer RLC)

    1. Athletic Nasherbo
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Agreed there.

    2. Bellerinmondo
      9 years, 7 days ago

      As you have

    3. Plant Based FPLer
      9 years, 7 days ago

      What's the point of Fern n Gross instead of Ward n Gross or Ward n Fern?

      1. Dickie1898
        9 years, 7 days ago

        I pick my def based on probability of individual clean sheets. The method you're suggesting optimises points potential but at a greater risk, I'm not chasing. If brighton do score, gross will probably be involved so he's not getting benched is he. Your method is a bit flawed unless your players never play against each other????

        1. Plant Based FPLer
          9 years, 7 days ago

          I guess I'm saying I think Ward has similar points average this week as Fernandez. I don't know who is better between Fern and Gross though. Ward could be the worst of the three but still be right to play ironically considering there is no possibility of both Fern and Gross returning, barring bps, but since there is bps I don't really know. I don't go for nonbos when I have the chance.

          I'll be playing Mee and one of Gross/Fern myself, in the same boat. If it goes 0-0 3,2 Bps hats off to you!

          1. Plant Based FPLer
            9 years, 7 days ago

            I just saw u have vvd, who can get forward. That might change probability in your favor.

            1. Plant Based FPLer
              9 years, 7 days ago

              And Ward getting forward would be bad for vvd I guess.

  17. Beavis
    9 years, 7 days ago

    A: Stones, Alli, Kun
    B: Walker, Sterling, Kaku

    What do you reckon chaps?

    1. Bellerinmondo
      9 years, 7 days ago

      A

      1. Bellerinmondo
        9 years, 7 days ago

        With otamendi?

        1. Beavis
          9 years, 7 days ago

          Not affordable sadly.

    2. rjcv177
      9 years, 7 days ago

      A

    3. Lets jump straight into it.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      a

  18. agueroooooney
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Morata -> Kane for a hit?

    1. Bellerinmondo
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Yeah

    2. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      I would, with high hopes and captain it will pay up fast.

    3. Lets jump straight into it.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      for a hit? nah

  19. eyezil
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Take the -4 hit for Vardy > Kane? Or Kun > Kane? Or hold off and hold my breath?

  20. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Elliot
    Alonso Walker Moreno
    Eriksen(V) Sterling Richarlison Choupo
    Kane(C) Lukaku Abraham
    Foster Carroll Kolasinac Hunemeier
    Save ft and GTG?

    1. George James
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Kolasinac >> Vert

  21. Simon March
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 7 days ago

    At lot of what Ben says hits very close to home for me.

    I struggled a lot, especially in the first part of my ‘season after’ and felt all the same things; that I’d lost credibility and that I should have retired on a high.

    But around this time in the season, when there was enough data to start making more reliable decisions, I quickly started climbing the tables and I ended up with a respectable rank (albeit outside the top ‘1’).

    I know Ben will too. You don’t stop being a good player overnight but luck can definitely desert you that quickly (hopefully temporarily). And luck is that big part of winning that nobody is really interested in because you can’t teach it, let alone learn it.

    I definitely suffered a bit from ‘The Hawthorne Effect’. I knew my team was being observed by several thousand people every week and I started unconsciously making choices I could justify en masse. The ironies are that I’d never have won if I’d followed that policy and nobody is following my team to see what ‘everybody’ does.

    (That said, Mark’s team gets broadcast to millions – I’m not sure how he copes!)

    Now I take a semi-serious, semi-experimental, semi-fun approach. I still get decent ranks and I enjoy every gameweek. And if wining it doesn’t give you license to do that, what does?

    Hang in there Ben (but not too much since we’re in the same mini-league 😉 )

    1. The Orienteer - find me in …
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Nice.

    2. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      9 years, 7 days ago

      I feel like luck has been replaced with the word trolling for reasons I don't fully understand . I'm glad you are enjoying it again it's only a game at the end of the day .

      1. George Sillett
        9 years, 7 days ago

        Well said Batman.

    3. Yozzer
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Who?

      1. Yozzer
        9 years, 7 days ago

        Ah just seen the article :-D.

        The geezer who won it.

  22. MGD
    9 years, 7 days ago

    A) Aguero + Davies + 4p
    b) Kane + Daniels

    who will score more?

  23. aarrgghh
    9 years, 7 days ago

    What¨s your thoughts about Milner¨s gametime for the next two weeks?

    1. Rainer
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Will start this weekend but with Coutinho & Wijnaldum probably back after the IB he mightn't in GW12.

    2. Plant Based FPLer
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Don't trade for someone for two weeks unless u have WC coming up!

  24. Atwood
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Lacazette > Kane

    I should be making that switch tonight right?

    1. Bellerinmondo
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Just did it

    2. Pea Soup
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Oh yes

  25. HD7
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Play Simpson or Kola this week? First five win...

    1. Pea Soup
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Neither

  26. Duffy Dunk
    9 years, 7 days ago

    What's going on with Daniels's price tendency every night at fplstats?
    It's impossible for what happens to reflect reality, I can't imagine just a few people selling him every night to get him close to a price fall, but never enough.

    1. Deulofail
      9 years, 7 days ago

      People buying him too?

      1. Duffy Dunk
        9 years, 7 days ago

        It's like almost the same numbers repeat themselves the closer we get to the daily price change deadline, at columns "delta" and"target". Like a daily loop.

  27. Schliegs
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Kane definitely playing this week?

    1. Pea Soup
      9 years, 7 days ago

      No

    2. Yozzer
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Of course. Why wouldn't he

  28. Joyce1998
    9 years, 7 days ago

    salah to rise tonight??

    1. Lets jump straight into it.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 7 days ago

      prob. Dont know why tho

  29. Positive vibes
    9 years, 7 days ago

    Hi, please help me choose C for this week
    A. Aguero
    B. Salah
    C. Eriksen
    Thanks.

    1. Pea Soup
      9 years, 7 days ago

      Choose C