Scout Notes
23 November 2017 654 comments
davidwardale davidwardale
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An emphatic win for Chelsea books their place in the Champions League knock-out stages, while a defeat for Manchester United ends up doing little to hamper their own hopes of European progress.

Crucially, both managers are able to rotate their squads as the packed pre-Christmas schedule looms ever larger.

Here are the notes from Wednesday’s continental action.

Chelsea cruise mostly good news

Chelsea’s 4-0 win over Qarabag in Azerbaijan ticked many a Fantasy box, if not all.

Key asset Alvaro Morata, at 24.1% the most owned Fantasy Premier League player in the Blues squad, spent much of the match on the bench, only coming on for Eden Hazard after 65 minutes.

That will have pleased the 131,000+ managers who have bought the Spanish striker this week, making him the third most transferred-in player ahead of Gameweek 13.

The in-form Hazard, meanwhile, shone in a front three that also included Pedro and Willian, opening the scoring from the penalty spot before setting up Chelsea’s second goal.

That was scored by Willian, who ended up with a brace of both goals and assists. The Brazilian was twice fouled in the penalty area – Cesc Fabregas dispatched the second spot-kick with Hazard already replaced – and rounded off the scoring with a rasping drive from the edge of the box, Pedro providing the assist.

The win confirmed Chelsea’s progress into the Champions League knock-out stages with a match to spare, but coach Antonio Conte won’t have the luxury of making wholesale changes for the final fixture – if he wants his team to win the group, that is.

The Blues will likely need a draw at home to Atletico Madrid to top Group C, meaning Conte may choose to manage his squad for the two matches – at home to Newcastle and away at West Ham – that bookend the early December decider.

Rotation, in fact, played a part last night, with regular starters Marcos Alonso and N’Golo Kante replaced after 58 and 75 minutes respectively, while young defender Andreas Christensen was an unused sub.

The Danish international has started the last two league matches, providing 13 points from two clean sheets for his 0.5% ownership. Priced at just 5.4, he is the cheapest route into a defence that’s conceded only two goals in four matches – should Conte continue to pick him for domestic duties.

The coach’s pre-match comments suggested that he will.

“In every game I have to try to make the best decision for the team and I think in this situation Christensen deserves to play. Christensen is playing very well, but we have to play a lot of games – we play every three days – and I need all the players.”

David Luiz, still owned by 11.9% of FPL managers despite making way for Christensen for the last two Gameweeks, replaced the Dane last night, suggesting the roles will be reversed come Saturday evening’s vital trip to Liverpool.

Defeat no great loss for United

Things, on the face of it, were rather less satisfactory for Man United.

Needing just a point in Basel to confirm top spot in Group A, Jose Mourinho’s men failed to turn first-half superiority into goals and then succumbed to a late strike from the Swiss that kept their own qualification hopes very much alive.

United will now host CSKA Moscow in early December – a match sandwiched between a trip to Arsenal and the Manchester derby – with the group seemingly still finely poised.

In reality, however, the Russians will have to win the fixture by seven goals to deny United progress to the knock-out stages and Mourinho will surely rotate as a result.

The coach certainly mixed and matched last night, making seven changes from the side that beat Newcastle at the weekend.

One notable player retained from that 4-1 win was Paul Pogba.

The Frenchman’s explosive Gameweek 12 return from injury, involving a goal, an assist and two bonus for 12 points, has prompted a surge in sales, with more than a quarter of a million new managers making him the most popular pick of the week.

His 13.8% ownership might not have been overly pleased to see their man back in action for the second time in five days, but he survived intact and was again the driving force as United dominated their defensive hosts through to the interval.

That they reached half-time still goalless was down to the profligacy of Romelu Lukaku, who spurned both a one-on-one with the keeper and a free header, and the woodwork, which was hit twice.

A Marouane Fellaini header brushed the outside of the post before a Marcos Rojo long-range effort was deflected onto the crossbar as the half ended.

Pogba’s withdrawal after 66 minutes both dampened United’s attacking impetus and encouraged the Swiss to be more expansive, with their late winner reward for a markedly improved second-half showing.

Mourinho’s selections provided a few clues as to the likely line-up when Brighton visit on Saturday.

Marcus Rashford (9.0%) was dropped to the bench before replacing Jesse Lingard in the 64th minute, while David de Gea, Ashley Young and Juan Mata didn’t even make the squad.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan was another left out completely – the second time in a week the Armenian has been snubbed by Mourinho and a key reason why he has been sold by more than 110,000 managers ahead of Gameweek 13.

The main question remains the make-up of the centre of defence.

Rojo returned from injury and formed a solid partnership with Chris Smalling. Both are priced at 5.4 and could well be back in action on Saturday, with Phil Jones already ruled out by his manager earlier in the week and Eric Bailly still doubtful.

The alternative is Victor Lindelof, who was on the bench last night, partnering Smalling as he did last weekend, although the Swede is yet to turn in a truly convincing performance in his rare league outings.

At present, the safest option appears to be Smalling, who has started the last six matches in the league, though there is clear uncertainty in the back four, promoting De Gea’s stock in goal.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, meanwhile, continued his own recovery from injury with a 26-minute cameo in place of the industrious Anthony Martial, though Lukaku – the only FPL forward to have played every minute of the league season – was again afforded the full 90 minutes by his manager.

654 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Sims
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    any bou fans here?

    im guessing there is no way wilson starts all 3 games next week?

  2. Sickboy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Was going to do Sterling to Pogba but Mourinho looks to be handling him carefully and bringing him off after 60mins.

    Appreciate Sterling my miss one of the next few games, but City’s fixtures are superb and even coming off the bench Sterling can pick up points.

  3. ENZO SZN™
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    A) Sane + Trippier

    B) Sterling + Alonso/Azpi

    On wc atm.

  4. supersham
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Silva to Sane for a hit?

  5. Balotellitubbies
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Pope - Elliot
    Jones - Davies - Mee - Fernandez - Daniels
    Silva - Salah - Richarlison - Ritchie - RLC
    Kane - Aguero - Vardy

    1FT & 0.1ITB.

    What to do? Don't like my team as I got problems with Jones, Davies & Aguero. Ritchie & Vardy also stinking up my team. Also want to get Sane, but there is no easy way to get him in... Think I will keep Davies and Aguero for now (will play 1 of the next 2 at least), but may get rid of Jones.

  6. Strchld
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Best Stones replacement?
    A) Otamendi
    B) Alonso/Azpi
    And play
    Elliot (WAT) or Pope (ARS)
    Have Richalison so probably its Pope?

    1. Balotellitubbies
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Take a pick with Ota/Alonso/Azpi, all are great options. Think I would prefer Azpi for the long run.

      And play Pope, definitely.

      1. Strchld
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        Yep, all great picks. Thanks!

  7. white lightning
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Just after some advice please. 1ft & 0.2itb
    I will probably use my ft = Stones out & Otamendi in - will leave 0itb

    Elliott (Lossl)
    Azpi, Otamendi, Mee (Fernandez, Jones)
    Salah, Sane (c), Sterling, Richarlison (Carroll)
    Kane (vc), Morata, Abraham

    Anything worth a hit or 2:
    (a) Jones out - Daniels in (play over Mee) for a -4 hit
    (b) Carroll out - RLC in (play over Abraham) for a -4 hit
    (c) Jones & Abraham out - Daniels & Wilson in for a -8 hit
    (d) Fernandez & Abraham out - Daniels & DCL in for a -8 hit
    (e) play as is & take no hits

    Thoughts & thanks.

  8. Jonesfromthere
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Who will score more points this week we think? Mahrez or Pog?

  9. Dinner for Chamakhs
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Really need some help lads.
    Looking to downgrade my Atsu and free up some funds. Already paying the horrible price for moving early with my FT on Niasse. Need a 5th cheapo playing midfielder.

    Would be great if you guys could just leave a short reason for your choice of either
    A) Atsu > Hughes (WAT)
    B) Atsu > RLC (CRY)

    Current midfield 5: salah d. Silva richarlison sane Atsu
    Have a good one and may the odds be forever in your favour.

    1. Lh909
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      RLC, all day long

  10. AandyzZ
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Aguero and Sterling > Morata and Sane for -4?

    1. @FPLStrategist
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Aguero to Morara could be enough and Sane in next week if you must.

      1. AandyzZ
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        Do you think sterling will play against hudd?

        1. ENZO SZN™
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 25 days ago

          I think he will. Got 5 days rest.

    2. supersham
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      I would.. A rested Sane could be worth the hit alone

  11. @FPLStrategist
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Guys, save the transfer or can you see anything to use it on?
    3-5-2, 0.9m in bank, 1 FT

    Fabianski
    Azpilicueta - Van Dijk - Ward
    Silva - Sane - Richarlison - RLC - Salah
    Kane - Jesus
    SUB: Elliot, Gomez, Duffy, Hemed,

    Thanks!

    1. Invincibles
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Van Dijk > Mustafi

  12. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Advice needed:)
    Eriksen and Jones to Sane and Vert for a hit. Is it good idea or just swap jones for someone else i.e Ota for free

    1. Invincibles
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      the latter

    2. @FPLStrategist
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      I'd take a hit for that. I think Jones will be rested more now that Rojo is back.

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Jones to otamendi eriksen should sell this gw

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        Oops keyboard !! Eriksen should do well don't take a hit !!

        1. supersham
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 25 days ago

          Jones to Otamendi imo

        2. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 25 days ago

          thnx all you guys

  13. Invincibles
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Bottomed

    A) Pope Elliot
    Otamendi Daniels Azpi Mee

    B) Begovic Speroni
    Davies Mustafi Azpi Mee

    1. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      A

  14. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Hello all

    Any help appreciated 🙂

    A sterling and azpi / Alonso ( can't decide )

    B Silva and Verthonghen

    Thanks

    1. Invincibles
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      A 100%

      1. Invincibles
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        Azpi

    2. @FPLStrategist
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      A, Azpi

    3. Bald Eagle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      A with Alonso

    4. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Thank you guys 🙂

  15. oispakaljaa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    I think Aguero needs to go. What do you think A or B? Any other ideas?

    Pope Elliot
    Otamendi Ward Daniels Moreno Dunk
    Salah Sane Richarlison Gross TC
    Kane Aguero Morata

    Next week:
    A: Aguero + TC -> Niasse + Hazard (-4)
    B: Aguero + TC -> Wilson + KDB (-4)

    1. Old Wulfrunian
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      nc team mate.A for me though Wilson a better forward option than Niasse.

    2. Bald Eagle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      A for me

    3. DD
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      A

    4. oispakaljaa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Thanks for the replies all.
      I like A too as I'm more happy to bench 5M player than a 6M player 🙂

  16. fkmzcgp
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    My team is currently....

    Elliot (Hart)

    Jones, Moreno, Vertonghen (Naughton, Long)

    Alli, Salah, Richarlison, Sterling, Gross

    Lukaku, Kane (C) (Calvert Lewin)

    1FT and 0.1ITB

    A) Jones -> Daniels?Maguire?Mustafi?
    B) Jones and Naughton -> Daniels and Maguire (-4 hit)

    1. Invincibles
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Mustafi

  17. FC Hakkebøf
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Which pairing do you prefer

    A) Wilson + Pogba
    B) Niasse + Alli
    C) Niasse + coutinho

    1. Old Wulfrunian
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      A

  18. SantiClaus
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Bit of advice please

    Elliott (Foster)
    Ota Jones Daniels (Ward Mbemba)
    Salah Silva Sterling Richarl (RLC)
    Kane Morata Vardy

    1FT 0.7itb

    Was thinking roll the transfer and do Vardy,Richarl - Hazard,Niasse next week for free?

    Or Sterling to a pogba now?

    1. Invincibles
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Think you should wait, Pogba only just back, Vardy has a good fixture, think your current team will score well.

  19. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Y everyone giing Ota is mustafi a better and cheaper choice or kola

    1. Prison Mike
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Ota bags goals, plus city more likely to keep clean sheet, only downside is that hes a card magnet.

      1. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        Kola and mustafi also bag goals. City defense weak with no Kompany and stones

        1. DD
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 25 days ago

          Kompany is fit and will play

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Otamendi looks a very option good fixtures and goal threat and with stone injured he is also nailed

  20. Judders
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    BOTTOMED HELP PLEASE. All at sea after wasting my FT going DCL to Niasse and my lead in ML is slipping fast. Any moves I make will be for hits. This is my team any suggestions are most welcome!

    Pope
    Maguire Monreal Jones
    Silva Salah Eriksen Richarl Tarroll
    Lukaku Kane (c)

    Elliot Ward Duffy Niasse

    I think Im going to have to take Jones out. Thinking Jones > Daniels. Any ideas?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      I take it you play 4 4 2 ?
      Team looks good this gw
      Save transfer and do
      Jones eriksen for sane and upgrade defence

      1. Lanley Staurel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        He's used his FT already.

  21. F4L
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Vardy Alonso and Otamendi
    or
    Kane and 2 4.5s

    1. Fanta sea
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      That's a toughie. I think there's enough decent 4.5m defenders so you can go for kane

      1. F4L
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        hmm yeah thanks. Just need to have reassurance Kane is fully fit now

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Kane

  22. Francescoli
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    This with Pope and Elliot, who will you play this week?

    1. F4L
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      if I had that pair id play Pope

    2. @chapellefpl OR 577TH
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Play Pope

    3. Karan_G14
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      I have both and I think I’m starting Pope.

      No reason to think Richarlison can’t score away from at Newcastle and Watford are anyways an attacking team.

  23. Fanta sea
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    So my rival in my league has 727 pts and I'm on 660 pts. So naturally the boasting happened which promptem me to make him put his money where his mouth his. Long story short, I've bet that I'll end up beating him.
    The question is, was I foolish?

    My Team:
    Elliot (Speroni)
    Azpi Daniels Ward (Gomez) (Duffy)
    Sane Salah Groß Richarlison (RLC)
    Morata Aguero Kane

    His team:
    Lossl (Elliot)
    Vertonghen Kolasinac Ward (Matip) (Jones)
    KDB Salah Eriksen Richarlison (RLC)
    Jesus Firmino Quaner

    I also have a team value that is 3.7m more than him. Surely 10 points more each week for 7 weeks is possible with my team?

    Funny thing is he managed 80 points with that team last week and I got 86.

    1. _figu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Why 7 weeks? Surely possible but not likely in that time period unless you nail captaincy and he doesn't.

      1. Fanta sea
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        It is a stretch I agree. He's been incredible with his captaincy choice.

        He has never owned Lukaku, Aguero, Kane, Hazard, Azpi, Alonso, Sane, Sterling, Groß and finds himself with 727 pts and a wildcard still available.

    2. La Gazzetta
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      I think by the end of the season you'll beat him if teams stay similar to that

  24. Karan_G14
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Best 4.5m defender for next 5-7 gameweeks?

    A) Morgan
    B) Simpson
    C) Yedlin
    D) Kiko
    E) Any other except Burnley, Brighton or Stoke?

    Appreciate your thoughts! 🙂

    1. @chapellefpl OR 577TH
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      C

    2. anish10
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      C

    3. F4L
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      c

    4. Fanta sea
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      After spurs game i'd say Kiko.
      I'd take Simpson over Morgan.
      Yedlin has good fixtures, I'd prefer Manquillo

      So Newcastle defender for 2 weeks and then switch to Kiko.

  25. N00B
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Aguero captain anyone ?

    1. F4L
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      locked on Sane and it aint changing

    2. Ronnie Hotdog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Yep, it's worked out ok for the past 3 weeks:

      GW10 - Lukaku (vc) got 5 points
      GW11 - Aguero played got 8x2
      GW12 - Salah (vc) got 16 points

  26. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Ota or kola or abra+4

  27. anish10
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Sterling > Sane?

    1. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Yes sounds crazy doesn't it
      But i did this yesterday-sane will play both games and not with competition sterling has for his position

  28. Ask Yourself
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Now morata is unlikely to be permanent in the Christmas period is Lacazette an option as that 2nd striker? Or is it time to go for Kane as the only premium and then 2 mid price/budget forwards?

    1. Tommyg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      I think rotation will come in the form of early subs and euro rotation so wouldn't worry.

    2. F4L
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      so Morata now becomes a rotation risk because he was rested against Qarabag, just like he was in the home game ? Doesn't really make sense

      1. Ask Yourself
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        Conte read

        1. F4L
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 25 days ago

          unless I've missed something, didn't he only talk about the fixture congestion being ridiculous, not about Morata?

          1. Ask Yourself
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 25 days ago

            He’s been open about how morata isn’t used to playing every 3 days

            1. F4L
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 25 days ago

              hmm fair enough, i'll take my chances 🙂

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Not being cheeky but if you assume morata is getting rotated just because he didn't play last night then get joselu he s nailed 🙂

      1. Ask Yourself
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        What?

    4. Fanta sea
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Who's really going to be nailed during that period anyways? Laca can't finish 90 mins now, so good luck when the fa cup comes around as well.

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        Totally

      2. Ask Yourself
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        Simply basing it on a manager saying about a player who he thinks can’t play 3 days apart regularly isn’t nailed. Not exactly hard to interpret is it

        1. Fanta sea
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 25 days ago

          I'm simply basing it on Laca not being able to finish games even when there's a week rest in between. When you said if it's better to put Laca in now, I'm hesitant.

          As for whether Morata will get benched, I'm sure he might get benched but those games are end of December. I'll probably even take a free hit at that time.

  29. Tommyg
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Likelihood of Klavan keeping his place over Lovran?

    Klavan a bit of a bargain at 4.3. Started the last 3.

    Any pool supporter with any insight?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Would also appreciate a reply to this question 🙂 my feeling is that he will get rotated though

    2. Dele
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      I'd also like info on this!

  30. KenyaDigIt
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 25 days ago

    Goalkeepers: Who offers the best value long term?

    Is it really worth investing in one of the premium keepers? Dea Gea, Courtois, Cech etc...

    Looking at the average over the last few season they all roughly make 140 points.

    Can you justify spending 5.8 Dea Gea rather than 4.6 on Pope? Burnley once again has a solid defence, giving Pope the upper hand in my opinion. Yet most of the top 50 in the world have Dea Gea? Am I missing something?

    1. F4L
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      go Pope. United wont be anywhere near as solid over the Xmas period with the defensive rotation Mourinho will implement

    2. DD
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Pope is the best value for money keeper right now. Ddg is the most assured way into the untied def atm and most people got him in at the 5.5 starting price. If choosing a keeper now I would still go with Pope.

    3. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      I decided to go with Courtois because I was unable to strech to Azpi/Alonso and I also have Mee. He is cheaper than Dea Gea nad ManU cannot defend without Jones and Bailly. But if you want cheap goalkeeper Pope looks like best option

      1. KenyaDigIt
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 25 days ago

        Why not get Pope and save the extra cash? Over the season they will end up with roughly the same points. Or do you feel otherwise?

    4. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Had ddg all season
      One less thing to worry about and pound per pound is value

    5. KenyaDigIt
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 25 days ago

      Agree with you both! Pope is the best value. I got him last week, but played my WC this week and after potentially losing Jones I'll have no United defence. So was tempted by Dea Gea, but can't justify spending the extra cash.

      Thanks for your feedback and thoughts