| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change |  Kelleher | BRE | C |
| No Change |  Raya Martin | ARS | B |
| No Change |  Martinez | AVL | C, Vs |
| No Change |  Darlow | LEE | C, Vs, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change |  van Dijk | LIV | B |
| No Change |  Gabriel Magalhães | ARS | A |
| No Change |  Hill | BOU | A, £ |
| Up |  Thiaw | NEW | B |
| No Change |  O’Reilly | MCI | A, OoP |
| No Change |  Andersen | FUL | B |
| No Change |  Muñoz | CRY | C |
| No Change |  Kayode | BRE | B |
| No Change |  Cash | AVL | C, Vs |
| No Change |  Rodon | LEE | B, Vs, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change |  Bruno Fernandes | MUN | A |
| Up |  Palmer | CHE | C |
| Up |  Gordon | NEW | B |
| No Change |  Wilson | FUL | A |
| Down |  Semenyo | MCI | B |
| No Change |  Dango Ouattara | BRE | B |
| No Change |  Rogers | AVL | C, Vs |
| No Change |  Ismaila Sarr | CRY | B |
| No Change |  Rice | ARS | C |
| No Change |  Tavernier | BOU | B, £ |
| No Change |  Anderson | NFO | B, £ |
| No Change |  Stach | LEE | B, Vs, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change |  Haaland | MCI | B |
| No Change |  Thiago | BRE | B |
| No Change |  Ekitiké | LIV | B |
| No Change |  João Pedro | CHE | A |
| No Change |  Bowen | WHU | B |
| No Change |  Calvert-Lewin | LEE | C, Vs |
Paul We delve into the Opta data now with our usual post-Gameweek members’ article, focusing on a case of standout performers across the previous round of fixtures.
Arsenal’s attack comes under scrutiny ahead of favourable festive fixtures, while Chelsea’s midfield man of the moment puts in another outstanding shift.
We also check out Man City’s super-sub, the Potters’ playmaker and the impact of Claude Puel on Jamie Vardy’s goal potential.
Jessie or Messi.
Sorry for the newbie question - why doesn’t ‘points per million’ really work as a measure for bringing players in/shipping them out?
I would’ve thought that maximising the value of your players would be key to the game - but team selection doesn’t bear this out.
4 out of the top 30 players measured by ‘points per million’ are midfielders, and none are forwards. Yet most people spend he maximum on forwards and minimum on keepers.
Can someone educate me please? Cheers.
First off, PPM is flawed because of baseline prices being different. The lowest you'll find a midfielder/ forward when prices are released is 4.5. The lowest you will find for a defender/goalkeeper is 4.0. This means that you should be composing 5.5 defs with 6.0 mids, etc.
Secondly, if you absolutely maximise value, you'll be left with a ton of loose cash. Spending it means going for less "valuable" players, but oness which may in the end give you more points.
Thirdly, "captaincy options" such as Hazard for example, divide value by two. When you captain a player, their points double, and thus they become twice as valuable. For example, if you captained Hazard last week, it would have been the ppm equivalent of owning two 5.3 players that scored 15 points.
I had some other points as well but forgot them whilst writing lol hope this is enough.
Perfect - cheers. I think I understand. The captaincy piece I figured; but on the whole I couldn’t quite get why people didn’t pick 2/3 captaincy sure things (ie. Hazard, Kane, Lukaku) to rotate the armband between and then fill he rest of the squad based on maximising value per million.
Excellent point
Because if a premium forward has 80pts and DeGea has 80pts, DeGea's ppm will be much higher. Problem is you wouldn't captain DeGea cause the pts ceiling is high enough. That's why we pay the premium for big hitters, they should be consistent, predictable and explosive. Unfortunately for many, Kane has been a huge disappointment this season but I'd still rather captain him as opposed to Groß or Richarlison or a defender or a keeper. Ppm is useful for maximizing your budget to allow you to fit in these premium players. You wouldn't full a squad of 15 with the top ppm scores, you'd end up with 20m itb. You use it to maximize the remaining spaces in your team after you've selected the premium, captainable players who will score double figures
It just doesn't.
Prices don't start at 1.0, they start at 4.0 (4.5 for mids and strikers)
So right away there's a factor in it that means you cant look at per 1.0 as nobody is 1.0
A 4.5 keeper/defender can be a decent pick, but a 4.5 mid is a 2ppg player and a 4.5 striker wont play. So prices between positions just aren't comparable.
Additionally, defenders only go up to 7.0 so at season beginning, there's only 7 price points for them whereas there's about 12/13 for strikers.
Lets say you can have Azpi gw1 at 6.5 or a 4.5 defender.
That 4.5 might do well and keep up with Azpi for a while.
Now lets say you can have Quaner or a 6.5 striker. Quaner won't play so the 6.5 striker and 4.5 defender wins.
And then also, you have to consider that for a 3 price point difference in defence, you can have Kola over say a 4.5 defender.
For a similar improvement up front, from say Rondon to Morata, it would be like, 8 price points more.
Then captaincy comes into play. A keeper can't keep 2 clean sheets at once but a striker can score 2 goals
Btw, I have Alonso Walker and Kolasinac 🙂
Yes, the mid priced def+ cheap mid vs cheap def + mid priced mid is an argument I hadn't considered.
You nailed the fact that value is price above base level. But does the data not work against your argument though, Sanchez? One reading of the data would be that you only need to pay about 1-2m from 'base'/'junk' price to get a really good premium defender or keeper who can start to compete with the more expensive player in the game.
In midfield and attack you have to spend several million above the 'base rate' to get players you can reliably play. It's arguable that in attack you need to spend a minimum of 4m just to get to the Vardy and Firmino bracket.
All this would point to premium defenders ruling the roost, but they don't. So what else is at play?
With all of this said - it's worth maximising PPM/Game for most of the team save 2-3 reliable big-hitting captains. I think that is is pretty irrefutable that players over about 10.5m have to perform wonders every game to actually be worth the outlay.
The counter to the counter is that the expensive players tend to be predicable, and the cheaper, more value options harder to call and more streaky.
We had a bit of a discussion about it here:
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/08/08/points-per-game-per-million-in-search-of-value/
We probably shouldn't be looking at ppm as a measure of value. It's more a measure of whether a player is under or over achieiving, and the threshold varies depending on a player's price. For instance, for a 10m player to get 200 points he'd need a ppm of 20 for the season whereas a 5m player would need a ppm of 40. So a 10m player on 10ppm is better for points than a 5m player on 15ppm.
KDB got near enough 200 points last season and his price at the start of this season was 10m.
If we expect him to get 200 again he should be on 200x38/15=79 points after 15 games, with a ppm of 79/10=7.9.
It's actually 8.9, so he's over-achieving by quite a lot.
Alexis Sanchez got 264 last year and his starting price was 12.0. If we expected him to get 240 points this season then his expected ppm would be the same as for KDB, i.e. 20ppm for the season and 7.9ppm after 15 matches. In fact it's currently at 4.8, so it seems fair to say he's massively under-achieving.
Now you’re talking 🙂 Cheers guys!
This is where I was going with it in my head - as a measure for establishing whether to stick or twist.
Pardon my Arts education; but if I had a weekly points target (ie. 55) and a known budget - could I establish how many points per million ideally each of my players would need to establish if they were under/over performing?
I'm not sure my maths is up to this but I'll give it a go.
Let's assume that the expected ppm for every player is 20ppm over the course of a season, so a 4.5m player should get 90 points and a 10m player would be expected to get 200 points.
If you multiply a player's price by 20 and then divide by 38 it will give you a player's expected points per week (ppw).
For example, a 4.5m player should be getting 90/38= 2.37ppw and a 10m player should be getting 200/38= 5.26ppw.
If you calculate the expected ppw for each of your players you can compare it to the player's form figure in FPL to see if he's doing better or worse than expected. You might want to replace any players who are under-achieving.
Of course you could always set the bar higher and demand that your players achieve, say, 25 or 30 points per million.
As for getting a guaranteed 55 points per week, I'm not sure if these figures could be used to do that. So much depends on other factors, such as if you prefer expensive forwards and cheap defenders or vice versa.
I've just thought of something else.
If we assume a target of 20ppm for every player over the course of a season then their expected ppm per week will be 20/38 = 0.526. If you go on the Transfers page in FPL and check the Value(form) figure for each of your players it should be above 0.5. If any player is below 0.5 they might not be worth hanging on to.
There will of course be plenty of cheap player with good value figures but you still wouldn't want to fill your team with 4.5m players.
Afternoon chaps,
My team;
Pope
Mustafi Moreno Ward
Hazard Salah Sterling Loftus-Cheek
Morata Firmino Kane(C)
Elliot Dunk McArthur Mbemba
0.4 ITB.
Anything worth a hit ?
Thank you in advance!
zeegelaar or kiko
the 0.2m might come in handy if zeeg is def nailed
Zeeg 2 yellow from 4 games is putting me off him
Zeeg not nailed
He is though. Holebas has been out of the squad for 3 games now and Silva seems to favour Zeegelaar based on comments he's made about him
Based on?
BOTTOMED
Which one is better
a.lukaku+KDB->Kane+Cout (-4)
b.kdb->coutinho
c.kdb->eriksen
Don't like any
Keep kdb
have no spurs cover whatsover,hold still?
Spurs are playing poorly - you don't need them. Their form will return but wait until it dies.
Unsure what to do here
De Gea Nortveid
Alonso Gomez Mee Lowton Rangel
Salah Sane Sterling Richarlson Gross
Aguero Morata Niasse
2ft
0 in the bank
A) Alonso and Aguero to Otamendi and Kane
B) Sane and Aguero to Firmino and Hazard
C) Alonso, Richarlson, Gross and Aguero to Kiko, KDB, Hazard and DLC -8
D) Anything else
Thanks
Bench two:
A. Kiko (bur)
B. Mee (WAT)
C. Daniels (cpa)
D. Abraham (STO)
E. Richarlison (bur)
Currently on AD
Tough one AC
AC
Cheers guys. Should be Abraham (WBA), does that change your minds?
C) & D)
2 FT...
Choupo & Vardy -> Coutinho & DCL
Yay or Nay?
Yay
So this is my team atm, iv already used my free transfer, i also iv 2.5 ITB, im tempted to take minus points what do yous thank,?????
Ederson
Ward, moreno, Kolasinac
Zaha, david silva, salah, Choupo
Kane, morata, Calvert-Lewin
Bench, elliot, daniels, naughton, cork
Strangely no Utd there lol!
mid looks weak, could do zaha->eriksen
Strangely? What United players would you want aside from DeGea?
it was just humour regards his team name
martial not bad since you asked
Sorry, missed the lol.
Because of his username I think
Lol i know, i can put hazard, rlc and sterling in but at a cost off -12
shameless repost
Current team -
Foster
Kolasniac, Daniels, Mee
Hazard, Salah, Richarlison, RLC
Jesus, Kane, Morata
Subs - Elliot, Carroll, Dunk, Hun
0.0 ITB, 2 FT
I'm thinking Jesus to Calvert-Lewin and then Carroll to Sane/Sterling?
Probably Sane.... might see if he drops furhter
Thoughts?
Which one looks better to free funds so i can swap Pogba for Coutinho?
A) Alonso > Christensen
B) Mustafi > 4.5
A
Hold
Keep Pogba in?
Can you not remove anyone else?
I'd say mustafi out of all those but he could be back this week so could be silly to get rid
Otherwise pogba to cheaper?
Tbh im not sure id want anyone cheaper current midfield it Salah, Hazard - Pogba* - Gross - RLC.
The city options no longer appeal and ideally I'd want a big hitter in there - could consider Ramsey I suppose.
Or just get Ramsey and save 0.8m
Beat me to it, had only just thought of him!
What's your forward line?
Kane - DLC - Morata
*DCL
Have i missed something today?
seen a few People benching Daniels against palace
Bournemouth are useless
I'm transferring him out I think.
I'm inclined to hold onto him for his attacking potential. Though I do have a bit of a headache this week in playing 2 of:
- Daniels
- Otamendi
- Groß
- RLC
Sell Sell Sell.
Spread the knowledge.
Im playing him
Tom carroll haul incoming
These type of posts make no sense at all but posting it because it seems to be the thing to do. Also I have posted about 100 other similar posts of players hauling but never do but rest assured I'll ignore those and back to post a link to this one when Carroll hauls
You cynic you.
Is English your first language?
Feels like there could be an awful lot of points benched this week, particularly clean sheets from budget defenders.
Some really tough calls around Watford, Burnley, Palace, Bournemouth etc
Watford and burnley will both concede, a terrible prowling has come to me...
*****premonition wtf
Triple captain hazard against westham?????
Nah
No. If you can't keep it in your pants until an appropriate time and place, at least wait a week until Huddersfield.
nah
Bench one this week:
A) Kiko
B) Mee (Have Pope in goal)
C) Otamendi
D) RLC
C
D)
Still torn between Ramsey and Richarlison.
Better underlying stats and price works for Rich, but Ramsey is pretty consistent.
Ramsey
Both are good. Ramsey if I had to pick one
I would love Ramsey but just can't fit him into my team structure...
Haven't owned Rich all year but had Ramsey for the last 4 weeks. He next 5 look great.
After my hit this week I'll have this team... 0.0m itb
DDG, Elliot
Azpi, Mee, Moreno, Kiko, Dunk
Hazard, Salah, Richarlison, Ramsey, RLC
Kane, Morata, Niasse
Look good or am I screwed with no City?
strong
Looks good for me. I had Ramsey earlier this season and he wasn't doing much, but he looks in good form now.
Had to downgrade Pogba to afford Haz
You need sterling imo
Sterling or Silva over Ramsey but you would have to downgrade Azpi, tough call
Looks good. I would not drop any of those for City
Daniels to sakho, holgate, Kenny or kiko?
Are the everton lads nailed?
Kiko probably, or Dunk
Kiko, but not until next week
Maguire if you can stretch it
when is the ffs cup qualification announcement?
Wimmer 4.3 nailed on bench fodders for rotation.
Buy Buy Buy.
Spread the knowledge.
Haha sure thing.
Play one:
A. Daniels (cpa)
B. Abraham (WBA)
B
DDG
Christensen Monreal Ward Moreno
Sterling Salah Richarlison Hazard
Morata Kane
Elliot RLC Niasse Mbemba
I'm monitoring the situations with Elliot / Niasse / Mbemba but am I good to save an FT this week? I don't see any huge worries the weekend. 1FT 0.2itb
Save FT and monitor
Apart from selling Elliot (which I can do next week) are there any obvious changes that I should make to this team
DDG Elliot
Mee Moreno Dunk Daniels Naughton
Hazard Salah Richarlison Gross Zaha
Kane Vardy Abraham
1.2 ITB 1 FT
Any ideas would be welcomed
what do you think of a 352 with this team?
DDG Elliot
Alonso Kiko Kenny Mee 3.9
Salah Hazard Sane Coutinho Shaqiri
Kine Austin Niasse
Midfield looks really good. Who's Kine?
sorry kane*
Foster, Pereira
Otamendi, Monreal, Daniels, Mee, Simpson
Hazard, Salah, Sané, Richarlison, RLC
Kane, Morata, Quaner
Would you do Richarlison, Morata to Coutinho, Firmino for free?
nah
Nop
Not at all
Morata and Chopou or Firmino and Ramsey?
B, but would want Morata.
1. Richarlison or Ramsey?
2. Feminia or Zeegelaar?
Play one
A) Daniels
B) RLC
