After assessing the teams with the strongest upcoming schedules yesterday, we turn our attentions to those with less reason for festive cheer.
Tomorrow heralds in the first of four Gameweeks that get underway in the subsequent ten days, meaning that planning for rest and rotation is as pivotal as focussing on the winter fixtures.
Burnley’s superb start to the season is about to face its sternest test, while the schedule also suggests that a trio of new managers – Claude Puel, Sam Allardyce and Roy Hodgson – won’t have it easy, either.
Burnley
(TOT mun hud LIV cry MUN)
The Prospects – Goals
It’s fair to say that the Clarets’ climb to sixth place has been based around their resilient rearguard – only five teams have scored fewer goals than Burnley’s 16 this season.
Having found just twice in the last four Gameweeks, Sean Dyche’s side now face a brutal run of matches that begins with a visit from Spurs and a trip to Old Trafford in the next two Gameweeks.
The north London outfit have just two shut-outs away from home, yet Burnley have been anything but prolific and scored just seven times at Turf Moor. On only one occasion – against bottom club Swansea – have they notched more than a single goal at home.
Meanwhile, Man United have served up more home clean sheets (seven) than any side and will be expected to keep Dyche’s men at bay.
While a Gameweek 21 visit to Huddersfield is less daunting, the Terriers have been fairly obstinate at home – only Spurs, Man City and Chelsea have managed to score more than once at the John Smith’s Stadium.
Liverpool then roll up to Turf Moor having conceded 17 times on their travels – just three sides have allowed more away goals. However, only two of those arrived in the Reds’ last four road trips, highlighting their improvement of late.
A trip to Selhurst Park looks the likeliest source of goals for Burnley – the Eagles have yet to register a clean sheet at Selhurst Park.
Following that, though, Dyche’s men then have to face Man United for the second time in six Gameweeks in a run that may well prolong their meagre goal output to this point.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Burnley have defied expectations over the opening 18 Gameweeks, conceding just 12 times – along with both Manchester sides, that’s the joint-best defensive record in the league.
Yet that will be firmly put to the test by back-to-back matches with the Spurs and Man United attacks.
Although Saturday’s opponents have surprisingly scored just three goals in their last five road trips, Spurs still place in the top four away teams for shots and efforts on target and will be fancied to find the net.
The Red Devils, meanwhile, have scored 22 times in front of their own fans, second only to Man City.
While we can be more encouraged by the trip to Huddersfield, it’s worth noting that David Wagner’s side have scored in each of their last five at home, which includes clashes with both Manchester clubs and Chelsea.
The Clarets then welcome a Liverpool attack that’s joint-top for away goals (24) along with Man City before travelling to Selhurst Park, where Palace have netted two goals in each of their last six home matches under Roy Hodgson.
Man United’s visit in Gameweek 24 is far from appealing, either – only Chelsea and Liverpool have prevented the Red Devils from scoring on the road.
The Turning Point
With a visit from Man City in the first few days of February, it isn’t until Gameweek 27 when the schedule turns for the Clarets.
After that, Burnley are faced with just two testing fixtures in a superb run of matches all the way until the end of the season.
Verdict
With injuries and suspension hampering their backline further, owners of Burnley defenders may now look to bail.
Nick Pope’s save-point potential may persuade some to hold, though – he’s matched David de Gea’s 5.5 points per match so far. He also offers a viable rotation option with West Ham’s Adrian.
Beyond that, though, there’s little reason for banking on Burnley over the next few matches.
Crystal Palace
(swa ARS MCI sot BUR ars)
The Prospects – Goals
This weekend’s trip to managerless Swansea is one of the few positives on the short-term horizon for the Eagles.
Certainly, Roy Hodgson’s side will be expected to get among the goals at the Liberty Stadium – they sit third for big chances and fourth for shots in the box over the last four Gameweeks and arrive on the back of last week’s mauling of Leicester.
As mentioned above, Palace’s home form has been hugely impressive under the new manager, scoring two goals in all of their six matches.
Yet back-to-back visits from Arsenal and Man City will put that record to the test – that pair sit in the top three for least away shots conceded.
The trip to Southampton offers more hope, though, considering that the Saints have a single clean sheet in the last 13 Gameweeks.
Burnley – who have conceded just nine away goals, the same as Man United – then visit Selhurst Park before Hodgson’s men face a jaunt across London to the Emirates, where Arsenal have six clean sheets in their last eight.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Again, tomorrow’s trip to Swansea looks a promising one. Palace arrive on the back of three successive shut-outs on the road, while the Welshmen have scored just one goal in five at the Liberty.
But the visits from Arsenal and Man City are unlikely to improve the Eagles’ clean sheet record at Selhurst Park.
Hodgson’s men then make their way to Southampton, who have upped their goal threat since Charlie Austin settled on the teamsheet – the Saints have bagged six goals in three at St Mary’s.
The Gameweek 23 clash with Burnley at Selhurst Park could boost the Palace defence, bearing in mind that the Clarets have failed to find the net in their last two road trips, against Leicester and Brighton.
But that’s then followed by another match with Arsenal, as they head to the Emirates, where the Gunners have scored 22 goals – only Man City have found the net more often on home turf.
The Turning Point
The following fixtures do little to boost Palace’s appeal with a dire run that extends all the way to Gameweek 32.
Hodgson will be hoping that his side are still in with a chance of avoiding the drop by that point as their final six fixtures all look favourable and will be key to their relegation plight.
Verdict
After tomorrow’s match with Swansea has passed, the Eagles are unlikely to be backed for the foreseeable future due to their punishing winter schedule.
A shift up front may yet keep Wilfried Zaha ticking over – he’s delivered returns in six of 11 outings under Hodgson – but that consistency is about to be put to the test.
Swansea
(CRY liv wat TOT new LIV)
The Prospects – Goals
After sacking Paul Clement on the back of three goals in the last eight Gameweeks, Swansea’s attempts to climb out of the dropzone are hampered further by a tough run of matches.
Without the injured Wilfried Bony this weekend, the Welsh side host a Palace team on the up – unbeaten in seven and without a goal conceded in three straight road trips.
The visit to Anfield that follows may well extend their recent drought – no side have allowed fewer home goals than the Merseysiders’ three.
After that, they’ll be more hopeful at Watford, who have conceded at least three times at home on four occasions – including last week’s 4-1 hammering from Huddersfield.
A visit from Spurs follows on from that one. Only three sides have allowed fewer shots on goal in away matches than Mauricio Pochettino’s men, which hardly bodes well for an attack with five goals at the Liberty all season.
Swansea then visit a Newcastle side with one clean sheet in seven at St James’ Park before entertaining Liverpool, who, as mentioned earlier in the article, have been far better defensively in recent road trips.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Swansea have kept out their opponents in two of the last three at home, with only Man City breaching their defence during that stretch.
But, as mentioned above, Palace’s attack has been one of the most threatening in recent weeks and there’d be few eyebrows raised if they were among the goals tomorrow.
A trip to Anfield is far less appealing, with the Merseysiders sitting in the top three for shots, efforts in the box and attempts on target at home.
That precedes a trip to Watford, who have scored in all but one of their last six at Vicarage Road, including goals in showdowns with Arsenal, Man United and Spurs in that spell.
As discussed above, the Liverpool and Spurs attacks boast strong underlying statistics on the road and both will be fancied to deliver at the Liberty in Gameweeks 22 and 24.
In between those, Swansea face a relegation six-pointer at St James’ Park, where Newcastle have failed to score in three of their last four. That’s backed up by the recent stats, with only two teams managing fewer shots on target than the Magpies’ 12.
The Turning Point
With encounters against Arsenal and Leicester also included in the next eight, it’s not until Gameweek 27 before Swansea can have any real reason for optimism.
They are then faced with just three tough fixtures in the final 11 rounds of matches that could yet force a reassessment of their Fantasy fortunes.
Verdict
Lukasz Fabianski’s record as the top keeper for saves may well remain intact as a result of the upcoming batch of fixtures.
With a new manager yet to take the helm, we can certainly afford to sit back and assess Swansea’s potential at both ends before considering their assets for a run-in that could bring them into Fantasy contention.
Be wary of…
Leicester
Last weekend’s chastening 3-0 home loss to Palace has clipped the Foxes’ momentum ahead of a tough run of matches.
Between now and Gameweek 27, Leicester’s schedule is ranked second toughest in our season ticker. That starts with tomorrow’s visit from Man United and also includes trips to Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton and Man City – hardly encouraging for a defence with a single clean sheet in eight.
With a visit from Watford – who rank third for big chances away and fifth for goals scored – also in the next six Gameweeks, Claude Puel’s men are unlikely to turn many Fantasy managers’ heads until the fixtures favour them from Gameweek 28.
Everton
Big Sam’s promising start to life on Merseyside will be tested by visits from Chelsea and Man United and a trip to Spurs in the next five Gameweeks.
Although they’ve scored seven times in four under the new managers, Everton have managed just 28 shots over that period – fewer than any other side.
Defensive or attacking returns could be minimal across those three matches, then. While trips to West Brom and Bournemouth could reap rewards, it’s perhaps wiser to revisit the Toffees when the schedule is kinder from Gameweek 24 onwards unless you have rotation options available.
