It’s not been a great season for premium strikers.
Spurs talisman Harry Kane, as the second highest scorer in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), is doing his bit.
But the next forward to feature on the list comes in at number seven, and a chunky 48 points off top spot at that.
Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero is that striker, and there’s a growing feeling that he has both the form and the fixtures to demand inclusion in our teams.
City’s schedule is strong through to the end of March, with back-to-back matches against Arsenal and Chelsea the only major tests.
And in Aguero they have a man in fine touch – he’s scored eight times in seven matches in all competitions this month, with four coming from his last three league starts.
Kane’s form, meanwhile, is not exactly shabby either.
He’s scored nine goals in the last six Gameweeks and netted in each of his last three in all competitions, although an immediate fixture list involving visits from Man United and Arsenal and a trip to Liverpool is making many managers twitchy.
Do we now consider a short-term swap of the two frontmen, or is the City striker only to be considered as a partner, regardless of the surgery required to make that move?
Or, in light of a mooted February return for Gabriel Jesus, do we gamble on ignoring Aguero entirely?
We call on Mark’s opinion, along with FPL champion Ben Crabtree, runner-up Uwais Ahmed and Career Hall of Fame luminaries Jay Egersdorff and Peter Kouwenberg as they address the latest Burning Question – do we dare switch from Kane to Aguero?
Uwais Says…
Given the difficult nature of the upcoming fixtures for Spurs, there is a logical argument for making the swap.
A colleague of mine at work was agonising over the same decision for Gameweek 24 and failed to pull the trigger.
Suffice to say once Aguero had put Newcastle United to the sword that evening, I received a few ‘upset’ texts from him.
However, it really is a conundrum.
Kane faces three tough fixtures next, but he scored in two of the three corresponding fixtures last season, at home to both United and Arsenal.
Granted, those matches were at White Hart Lane, but as he has already burned many of us with his exploits recently – particularly the back-to-back hat-tricks in Gameweeks 19 and 20 – it will take a brave FPL manager to bet against him producing returns, even in these fixtures.
If you opted for Aguero as a direct replacement for Kane in the last Gameweek, then you can feel pretty smug.
There is no doubt that Manchester City have, for the most part, spread the wealth this season.
But Gameweek 24 was a reminder that, on his day, Aguero can wreak havoc and provide explosive returns all by himself.
Therefore, in the short-term, Aguero surely gets the nod.
Navigating a way to include both players in our FPL squads looks like too much of a squeeze for most of us, so opting for Aguero has to be the better option.
However, I would keep an eye on Gameweek 27.
City play at home to Leicester, and Gabriel Jesus could be back to full fitness by then.
With a trip to FC Basel in the Champions League the following Tuesday, it is more than possible that the security of starts Aguero has enjoyed over recent times could soon be over.
With Kane, there is no such issue.
Jay Says…
As a pioneer of the infamous #Kanexit strategy over Christmas, two hat-tricks and some very uncomfortable red arrows later it may come as a surprise to hear that I still think ditching Kane is a great strategy – if you can pull it off at the right time.
It does hinge on a number of factors, the main one concerning your viable captaincy alternatives with Kane sat in the Fantasy stands.
An upcoming run of Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal won’t give managers huge confidence that giving him the armband is a wise move.
But this is Sir Harold, and it’s fair to say he could score against any opponent.
Aguero, on the flipside, is in great form and faces a far more favourable run of fixtures during that same period.
The element of doubt for Sergio is whether he’ll play all of those fixtures.
We’ve seen earlier this season that Pep isn’t afraid to rest him completely and with Jesus on the mend and Raheem Sterling able to play as a “false 9”, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Aguero given some rest time, particularly as the League and FA Cup fixtures will have taken their toll in January.
Ben Says…
One of my good decisions this season – which have been rare – was to transfer in Aguero last week, playing alongside Kane in a 3-5-2.
A hat-trick later and I can focus on other tinkering while rival managers toil over the Aguero and Kane predicament.
The City striker at the moment should be viewed as a short-term pick.
Great form and a Jesus setback may change this, but dealing with the information available now, you’re possibly looking at just three Gameweeks of Aguero.
Then again, he’ll be a great captain pick for West Brom and a good one for Burnley and Leicester during that run.
Kane has three difficult fixtures on paper but, like Aguero in season’s past, he can score against anyone and has been prolific against Arsenal.
It’s a risk to take out Kane for the points and if you plan to bring him back, two switches for one player over such a short period seems a reckless use of treasured transfers.
I break the decision down as follows…
Don’t get Aguero if: You have good captain picks for the next three Gameweeks; play 3-5-2 and have two forwards who are capable of double-digit returns; want Sanchez more.
Transfer Aguero in for Kane if: Your team is in good shape; you have two transfers with little requirement to use them; you feel like taking a risk knowing that you’ll be a “happier level of happy” should it pay off than the “sadder level of sad” should it not.
Own both if: You can do this with no hits; the potential enabler isn’t a magic bean; you only take a hit as it’s combined with an essential removal of some deadwood.
Peter Says…
We know how this works by now, don’t we?
Faced with difficult fixtures, Kane is abandoned by the masses, churns out a series of double-digit scores and then clams up again (relatively speaking) when clawed back in for a plum run of opponents.
After all, I’ve had the lad all season (averaging 5.5 points per match) apart from the two when he averaged 17.
However, the fact that my overall rank actually improved over that horrendous two-match spell (albeit around the lowly 600k mark) shows that Kane is not indispensable.
I’m not actually convinced that Aguero’s next three fixtures are overwhelmingly superior to Kane’s – in fact, the latter’s imminent opponents have been marginally more porous over the last six matches, with 24 goals conceded compared to 22.
But Kane does not face his most vulnerable opponent (Arsenal) until Gameweek 27 and also travels to Liverpool, with their Jekyll and Hyde defensive record home v away.
So can we justify installing Aguero in Kane’s place, even if this may be only for the next two matches?
If you have no other fires to fight, then it could well be worth the transfers.
But with many of us combatting injuries in defence and midfield, taking a hit at both ends of the fortnight is surely too high a price to pay.
If we go without, we will certainly need to invest in a sturdy sofa to hide behind this midweek as Spurs host United and City welcome the Baggies to the Etihad.
Mark Says…
I still can’t entertain the idea of selling Kane, regardless of opponent.
We all know from experience that the fixture list is rarely useful when plotting his points returns, so turning to his next three matches as a guarantee of blanks or modest scores seems folly.
Clearly, the lure of Aguero is strong.
But City’s workload is intense and they have multiple sources of goals. I don’t doubt that Aguero can return again when West Brom pay visit but, equally, I can see others chip in with goals, allowing Pep Guardiola to spare his only striker in the final 25 minutes.
He surely has to start at Burnley, so it seems inevitable that he won’t get the full 90 minutes on Wednesday.
If I can squeeze him alongside Kane, I’m on board, but with Marko Arnautovic sidelined, Jonjoe Kenny destined to lose his start and Nicolas Otamendi soon to become a rotation risk, I know I have other fires to fight. Tying up two transfers at this time seems like an extravagant luxury.
I’m prepared to risk that Aguero keeps it to single digits and that, over the three matches, Kane pulls his weight.
The Gameweek 25 captaincy is the issue. That one will likely go to the wire.
