Spot the Differential
17 March 2018 2383 comments
James H James H
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While we have a limited pool of players to choose from this week, we are still confident our trio of differentials can deliver once again.

A returning Crystal Palace attacker tops the bill, while a West Brom forward and a Liverpool defender are also backed to produce.

Wilfried Zaha

After supplying an assist on his return from injury in last weekend’s 2-1 defeat to Chelsea, Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha could be a powerful differential in Gameweek 31.

The Ivory Coast international is expected to return to the starting XI for this afternoon’s trip to Huddersfield Town.

Eagles boss Roy Hodgson is likely to continue with a 4-4-2 formation and Zaha could be handed a start alongside either Christian Benteke or Alexander Sorloth up front.

Despite injuries limiting him to just 20 starts this season, Zaha sits second for penalty area shots (36), shots on target (15) and chances created (38) among Palace players.

He may have managed just four goals and as many assists so far, but Zaha’s minutes per shot (61.7 to 41.6) and minutes per chance created (80 to 48) are both up from last season, when he supplied seven goals, 11 assists and a career-high 149 points.

Owned by just 6.0% of Fantasy Premier League managers, Zaha promises to be a key influence against Huddersfield.

The Terriers kept a clean sheet at home to 10-man Swansea City last weekend, but they had conceded eight goals across their previous three matches at the John Smith’s Stadium.

Zaha’s 3.6 points per match is superior to any other Palace attacker and, at just 6.8 in FPL, he represents a stand-out differential option.

Salomon Rondon

With two goals from his last five Gameweek starts, and faced with a favourable trip to Bournemouth, West Bromwich Albion’s Salomon Rondon is worth a look.

The Cherries have mustered a single clean sheet from their last 17 encounters, while they rank first for the most shots conceded inside the box (43) and big chances allowed (16) over the last four Gameweeks.

Eddie Howe’s side have also conceded the most headed chances this season with 82, which is a weakness the 6.0-priced Rondon can exploit.

The Venezuelan’s numbers in recent weeks underline his status as the Baggies’ main attacking threat.

His nine shots inside the box over the last four Gameweeks put him fourth among players with a Gameweek 31 fixture, while no team-mate has registered more than three penalty area attempts.

With an ownership of only 1% in FPL, Rondon can be a real difference maker in Gameweek 31 for those maverick managers amongst us.

Virgil van Dijk

Liverpool’s star-studded attacking trio are garnering much of the interest ahead of this evening’s home meeting with Watford, but Virgil van Dijk is unfortunate to be on the periphery of our thinking.

The centre-back has been brought in by just 29,000 managers since Saturday’s deadline, which is less than a tenth of the interest there has been in team-mate Roberto Firmino.

Indeed, he is only the fifth most transferred-in Reds player.

But with the potential to deliver points at both ends of the pitch, the 7.7%-owned defender is worthy of taking up one of our three Liverpool slots.

Jurgen Klopp’s side boast the third strongest home defence, having conceded just 10 goals at Anfield.

Eight of their 12 clean sheets have come in front of their own fans.

Today’s opponents Watford travel to Merseyside having scored just two goals in their last eight away matches.

So the omens for defensive returns appear strong, while van Dijk has offered a real set-piece threat after joining from Southampton in January.

Since making his Reds debut in Gameweek 24, van Dijk has produced nine shots, with eight of those coming from inside the penalty area.

Only Leicester City’s Harry Maguire (11) and Burnley’s Ben Mee (nine) have registered more penalty area attempts among FPL defenders.

Offering arguably the best chance of both defensive and attacking returns of any defender in the reduced Gameweek 31, the Dutch international makes the decision on the three Liverpool slots a difficult one.

  1. John t penguin
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Just to point out even -2 is still negative

    1. Naboo
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      This, gonna be so many cries from trigger happy managers later. Obviously some will come off but vast majority won't

      1. Puzzle
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 20 days ago

        The thing is that -2 isn't anything to cry about anyway. To make this GW more fun is worth the risk for me. The upside is higher than the downside, easily.

        1. Naboo
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 20 days ago

          Higher upside I'd agree, but far, far less likely to occur than a small negative score. Plus it's not -2 when people are taking 2, 3 even 4 of them

    2. Tommy J
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Agreed but if you go for 'guaranteed' attacking starters then taking 3 hits is a 6 point negative but it only takes one of the three to do something to make it breakeven at worst-I'm thinking has to be worth the risk(if wildcarding next gw)

  2. darrellb
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    any updates on referee watch? this is as good a week as any to find out who's referring and chances of penalties.

    1. Rash
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Has there been an instance where you have benefited from ref watch?

      1. darrellb
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 20 days ago

        dunno really. a couple weeks ago it helped people get mili in for a penalty. i just need any help to decide hits. looking at baines

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      The men in black info from ffs is sporadic and unreliable. It would be useful to have it this week.

  3. ☈☾
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Walcott or Shaqiri?

    1. corderz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Walcott

    2. DARE
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      If you Free Hitting, you should have a bench to cover if Shaqiri isn't playing? Otherwise I wouldn't risk him not playing.

  4. Qaiss
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Best option?
    A) King
    B) Benteke
    C) Mounie
    D) Rondon

  5. Contegious
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Got 8ish playing with

    Foster
    Daniels Vvd Schindler
    Salah Shaq*
    Quaner Firmino

    Kane + Van Der Hoorn > Baines + Mounie or Kane + Cork > Mounie + Stan

  6. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Any of these worth a -4 here given RLC probably won’t start? WCing next week

    A) Ogbonna -> Baines
    B) RLC -> Zaha

    Pickford
    Daniels, Francis, Schindler
    Salah, Mane, Walcott, RLC
    Firmino, Wilson, Mounie

    Elliot, Sterling, Dunk, Ogbonna
    Bank 9.5m, 0FT

    1. The Mighty Hippo
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Both worth a -4 if you are certain that you'll be wc next week

      1. Jinswick
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 20 days ago

        Yep, definitely WCing next week. RLC to start?

  7. DAZZ
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    That Defoe tweet. If he's tweeting that for a bench spot... embarrasing, dont let me down Jermaine

    1. The Bandit
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Problem is, Wilson also tweeted the same

      1. I Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 20 days ago

        Could be 4-4-2 with Defoe in for Mousset and King on the bench?

    2. Why is it embarrassing?

  8. Naboo
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    So many hits. Keep it up guys, starting the poorest GW of the season 8-12 points up on rivals is HUGE. Bigger than having any of these poor players anyway

    1. Richd
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      See you this evening bra.

      1. Naboo
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 20 days ago

        Obviously some players will score so some hits will pay off and those are the people that will be posting about their successes. But overall I don't think taking more than one hit this week is a good idea. The winners will be those who didn't panic

  9. SADIO SANÉ
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    struggling to find a way to actually improve this team...any thoughts? think Stan could be a rotation risk with Ibe back

    Karius
    VVD Bauer Sakho
    Salah Sobhi
    Wilson Niasse

  10. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Is Sørloth confirmed out? If so then that makes Benteke an interesting option.

    1. Prøfeßör …
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      He's out, yeah. Check the end of my hot topic.

    2. AnderEstimatedHerrera
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      I was also thinking on this. But seems no 100% info yet

  11. DeadStarComing
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    This is more for people with all chips intact but is anyone considering triple captain Salah today? We're running out of weeks and options now. Salah (no DGW) and Kane (injured) look certain to not be DGW TC options and I notice some managers may be keeping the free hit for the last DGW. So basically when are people with TC planning on playing it?

    1. Rash
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      I honestly think TC this week will not pay off handsomely.. well more than on Kane last dgw at least

    2. Do I Not Like Orange
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      DGW37. Kane should be back before then, no? If not then Hazard may be worth a punt.

    3. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      If you’re going to TC Salah it would probably have to be this week.

      Best fixture for Salah is GW35 but that’s a DGW so unlikely that you would use it on a SGW player that week.

  12. Garfield1001
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Predicted minutes for RLC and Niasse?

    1. thegame
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      30/60 and 10

    2. Krafty Werks
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      10 and 20.

  13. ZakAFC_
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Kane > Mounie? Already done a -4

  14. Dr. DOOM
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Got 8 players as of now. Any of these worth -4?

    A. Alonso - Baines
    B. Kane - Mounie

  15. Lone Wolf FPL
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Can anone go at Ston stadium and check who gets out of the bus, please?

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      *Stoke

  16. Jayben23
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    This is my Team for the gw

    Vvd Kenny
    Salah shaqiri stanislas
    Firmino quaner benteke

    Worth taking a hit for anyone else ? Looking to WC gw33 so:

    A. Leave as is (-4 next week to get back the guys I need)
    B. -4 for Zaha in ( possible -8 next gameweek to get back the guys I need)
    C. -4 for Baines in (possible -4 next game week to get the guys I need back)

  17. corderz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Firmino, Mounie, Stanislas and PVA in for -8?

    1. I Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Maybe leave out PVA and just do -4? Not too sure hits on defenders will pay off but van Aanholt does have strong attacking threat.

  18. FCSB
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    What to do about Shaqiri??

    1. keep and hope he plays
    2. transfer out for a hit

    Thanks

    1. I Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      1

  19. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Is there a rebate system in place for -2pt hits?

    1. Richd
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Topcashback

    2. DeadStarComing
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      If anyone thinks it's only -2 for transferring a Bournemouth defender they're in for a shock.

      1. Jafooli
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 20 days ago

        😛

  20. Richd
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    There’s some real cowards on here. It’s a game. And many players have an EV over 4.

    Not many poker players on here.

    1. Prøfeßör …
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      You play your game and let others play theirs. No need to call people cowards.

    2. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Nah. The players to choose from are just crap players. I got GW32 to GW38 to consider. Deeney, Shaqiri, Walcott etc. Not exactly Kane, KDB and Salah

    3. Reiko
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      I see teams with barely 4-5 players who can actually get decent points out of which 2 are Salah & Firmino. I do hope GW35 makes up for this loss

    4. Moose™
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Months of non updating my team. Gg. Free hit then?

    5. Puzzle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Haha, actually agree with this. Very little to lose. A -4 hit is perfectly balanced in the game. When you are able to do one for essentially -2, it is worth it more times than not.

    6. Naboo
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Understanding probability does not make me a coward. Gamblers very rarely break even in the long run

      1. Naboo
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 20 days ago

        "but some people win the lottery!"

  21. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Defoe and VVD to troll the Wilson and Robertson buyers

    1. Sylas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Try later, you may get a few responses. 😆

  22. SheBangsTheDrums
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Which of these to bring in for a hit?

    A) Zaha
    B) Wilson (own Stanislas)
    C) save 4pts

    1. @FPL_liverbird (liverpoolfa…
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      B

    2. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      A

  23. @FPL_liverbird (liverpoolfa…
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Any of the following worth a -4, already made 2FT and currently fielding 10 (9.5 - depoitre)

    A) Ogbonna > PVA
    B) Ogbonna > Schindler
    C) Depoitre > Mounie
    D) Something else

  24. Mongreloid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    With all these hits being taken by people using WC in GW32, would it not be better to wait on DGW confirmations before deploying WC? Do we know when the DGW fixtures are going to be confirmed and/or played?

    1. I Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      We're expecting the fixtures on Monday or Tuesday.

  25. TSILIKAFENEIAKOS
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    10 players ( Quanner included) and planning to wc 32.

    Kane to Rondon or Wilson/King for further -4?

    Thanks

  26. ☈☾
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Play Zaha or Walcott?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Z

    2. Krafty Werks
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      50/50 toss a coin!

  27. steven8991
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Double BOU def
    or
    one BOU and one HUD?

    1. XabiAlonso
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      I've gone for the double bou

    2. Bubz
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      Bournemouth never keep clean sheets

  28. Delph & Safety
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    What’s the weather like in Huddersfield?

    Nothing will affect Aaron Mooy’s set pieces?

  29. Mr_Barbs
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Team this week so far. 1 FT.

    TAA, Mariappa
    Salah, Van La Parra
    Firmino, Wilson

    A) Son, Mahrez > Stanislas, Zaha (-4) - lose 0.2 value
    B) Son, TAA/Mee/Davies > Stanislas, Baines (-4) - lose 0.1/0.2 value
    C) Son, Mahrez, TAA > Stanislas, Mane, Baines (-8) - lose 0.2 value

  30. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 20 days ago

    Chances of Kenny playing?

    1. Krafty Werks
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 20 days ago

      2%

      1. PÍE
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 20 days ago

        I'd say less than that, hasn't even made the bench last 2.