Scout Notes – Arsenal Raise Rotation Risk

Arsenal flirt with disaster in Moscow before a late recovery sends them into the Europa League semi-finals to further compromise the Fantasy appeal of their assets for the domestic run-in.

Coach Arsene Wenger made six changes to the rotated line-up that beat Southampton 3-2 on Sunday, with big guns Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil, Alexandre Lacazette, Laurent Koscielny and Nacho Monreal among those returning.

That may well be the shape of things to come for the quintet from here on in as a 2-2 draw saw off a strong fight-back by CSKA Moscow, who channelled their inner Roma to reduce a 4-1 first-leg deficit to just a single goal before the Gunners finally responded.

Danny Welbeck made the vital contribution after 75 minutes when he spun past his marker, played a one-two with the impressive Mohamed Elneny and then finished sweetly.

Ramsey added a second in stoppage time, Elneny again the provider, as Arsenal made far harder work of securing a place in this morning’s Europa League draw than they would have liked.

The Welshman was stretchered off in the first half with a shin problem but returned to complete the match. Nonetheless, having been rested in three of the last four league matches, his minutes must now be in question for Sunday’s trip to Newcastle.

The semi-final will take place over the Thursdays of April 26 and May 3, strongly suggesting that Wenger will again rest his major players before, during and probably after the two legs of the tie.

That will have a serious impact on the line-ups for the visit of West Ham in Gameweek 35’s reduced slate, a Sunday trip to Man United following the semi-final first leg and then a home match with Burnley which forms part of a Double Gameweek 37 also involving a midweek fixture at Leicester City.

The Clarets clash takes place on Saturday – a mere two days after the Europa League tie is completed.

About the only positive spin to be put on that situation is the other three sides left in the competition, Atletico Madrid, Marseille and RB Salzburg, mean that travel times will not be a major factor should Arsenal play the second leg away from home.

Europe has been less kind on Fantasy managers, with two of the more attractive options taking part in the six-fixture Gameweek 35, Liverpool and Arsenal, now likely to field weakened teams courtesy of their continental commitments.

The Gunners’ three most popular players in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (13.4%), Hector Bellerin (9.9%) and Henrikh Mkhitaryan (8.2%) are set to have differing Gameweek 35 experiences.

The former is ineligible in Europe and will, therefore, play unless injured, while the latter is out with a knee problem expected to keep him sidelined for at least another fortnight.

As for Bellerin, the right-back has featured in every league match bar one this season, when injury kept him out of Gameweek 30’s win over Watford, but even he will surely not be asked to play four matches in a fortnight.

Not that investment in the Gunners’ backline has been particularly profitable anyway – they’ve kept just two clean sheets in 14 league matches, although both came recently, in Gameweeks 30 and 32.

But the defence looked far from convincing in both legs of the CSKA tie and also conceded twice to shot-shy Southampton in Gameweek 33.

Rotation of key players such as Koscielny and Monreal is unlikely to help stabilise what remains an unconvincing defensive unit.

All of that leaves Aubameyang as the one concrete option to rely on for Gameweek 35 and the double to follow, with further rotation inevitable if Arsenal manage to make the Europa League final, which takes place just three days after the end of the season.

Elneny and the 0.9%-owned Welbeck (7.3) were the pick of a rather feeble crop in Moscow and the England international’s form – three goals and an assist from his last two starts in all competitions – could make him an intriguing differential for those using their Free Hit chip in Gameweek 35.

But his strong showing last night might well persuade Wenger to add him to the list of assets to have their minutes carefully managed over the next few weeks.

Some of the Gunners’ bit-part players could be in for more domestic pitch-time as a result, with Calum Chambers (4.7) a strong candidate to add to his three starts in the last four Gameweeks after he was brought on to shore up a back three which Wenger had switched to mid-match in Moscow.

Overall, however, European advancement means that any plans to capitalise on Arsenal’s presence in Gameweek 35 and beyond now need to be strongly reconsidered.

They remain a team with goals in them – the 61 they’ve hit this season is the league’s fifth-best total – but who, aside from Aubameyang, is on the pitch to create and score them over the run-in is the key issue now.

In saying that, Alex Iwobi seems in line to profit domestically. Restricted to a bit-part role off the bench last night, he looks set to start away to Newcastle, having supplied two assists in the weekend win over Mark Hughes’ men.