Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Aram95
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    I currently have 8 players for gw35. Would you do Lingard to Gundogan for -4?

    1. Aram95
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      7 if Robertson doesn't start..

    2. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      i'd do a -8 or -12

    3. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Anyone you could transfer out instead that doesn't have a DGW37? I'd take a hit though

  2. Godot - Fashanu Zealand
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    Does anyone know a way to check when a person entered a ML? I've been leading one for the past few GWs, but suddenly there is a new name in the mix and I'm not too happy

    1. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      No real way of entering. If they have no arrow needs to them, they’ll be new as of this most recent gameweek though.

    2. che
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      You can join a mini league any time you want once you get the code. Just gotta suck it up mate

  3. Blue Gaffer
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    Got 6 players this go in order to field 11:

    Lukaku, Vardy, Mahrez, Pritchard, Willian———-Sterling, Salah, Zaha, Jesus, Diouf -16 yes or no?

    1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Cover salah plus one more and that's it for me. Otherwise you're just subbing out dgw players

  4. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    whey not David Silva? Saw some posts about rest...rest for what? KDB doesnt fit my budget....

    1. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      on Wild Card, not FH by the way.

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      His home end product isn't great in fpl, better away

    3. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      His son is still seriously ill. Any chance of resting him so he can go back to Spain, Pep obliges.

      1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        This.

    4. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      I had him in my team, but seen a lot of speculation on Blue Moon that he won’t start. Not in the fans’ predicted lineups anyway.

    5. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      ok, fair enough. cheers all.

  5. Yogi_mike
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    Btm
    Sane or Dilva

  6. Manani
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    who would score more?

    Jesus this GW
    or
    Kane next GW

  7. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    Why are people so sure that Jesus will lead the line? Pep could easily go with Bernardo false 9.

    1. OldBenKenobi
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      So no strikers are nailed lol well then may just go with Wood and Perez

      1. Bob McMayday
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Wood isn't nailed, Heaton pushing for a start up front with Pope now owning the GK spot

      2. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Vokes due a start... 😛

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      "easily"? when was the last time he didn't play either Aguero or Jesus in the league when one of them was available? or am I missing your sarcasm?

    3. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      😀

    4. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Bernardo false 9 😆

    5. JohnnyMagrinho
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Can’t be posting such a thing at midnight mate. You’re gonna deprive a lot of worn-out sun-stroked would-be managers of a well-deserved blissful sleep!

        (Hyphens are great by the way).

    6. pjanns
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      GTG or what do yoju think? On a free hit..
      Pickford
      Chambers - Baines - Mustafi
      D. Silva - Salah - Mane - Sterling
      Firmino - Jesus - Aubemayang
      (Elliot - Mili - xx -xx )

      1. BRFC1883
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        firmino not starting

    7. CrouchDown
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      How's this FH team looking guys?

      Karius

      Walker Bellerin Baines

      Salah Mane Sterling Ozil Zaha

      Jesus (C) Welbeck

      Subs: Nordfelt, Long Dummett Campbell

      1. VDiesel26
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Welbeck...brave

        1. CrouchDown
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          Think it helps the rest of my team a lot. Also uncertainly with Auba/Laca

      2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Looks good apart from Ozil and Welbeck.

        Ozil is just a rubish Ramsey 😉

        Ozil to Ramsey

        Welbeck to Auba

        1. *Reformed-Character*
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          Absolute sheep

          1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 1 month ago

            And how is that?

    8. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      A. Mane & Klavan
      B. Shaqiri & vvd/milner

    9. UnitedFan
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Ideal number of starters on the bench for FH?

      RP.

      1. Collie01
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        May as well get 2.

      2. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        0 if you're reasonably sure you'll get your XI started

        1. Volley127
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          With 3 Man City players surely that's near impossible.

          2 should be easy with Long at 4.0 + another.

      3. Desperately Seeking Dusan
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        I want 2... just in case Anfield Express/BF are wrong about the Liverpool line up.

        1. Jairzinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          And don’t forget all the other teams. Man City could throw a surprise or two.

          Other teams may rotate for the hell of it, or for injuries/illnesses that we don’t know about.

      4. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        At least 1.

        Don't see why you wouldn't have Long there. If going with 3 forwards you might as well get King too.

        1. UnitedFan
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          Yeah, currently have Long and that's it.

      5. Jairzinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Ideally all of them.

        Minimum 2 outfielders, but why not make it 3? Crouch, Cork, Long are about as cheap as they come and should all start.

    10. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      my team differential : tosun
      my arsenal attacking option : ozil

      what about yours ? thanks 🙂

      1. camarozz
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Shaqiri

        Silva

        Probably soooo wrong

      2. Collie01
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Differential: Coleman/Gundogan
        Arsenal: Ramsey

      3. Volley127
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Tosun
        N/A (maybe Bellerin at best)

      4. DrunkPhilosophy
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Moreno

        Laca

      5. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        thanks all, should have added captain, jesus for me

      6. carpenio
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Zaha

        Auba

      7. Bonus magnet
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        differential-> Danny Ings

        arsenal -> Auba and now that everyone has Laca he may be another differential

    11. Bissisine
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      A. Mane, Van Aarnholt
      B. Øzil , Mustafi

      1. Volley127
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        A

    12. SADIO SANÉ
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Welbeck a terrible idea? Just play 'safe' with Wood?

      Pickford
      Bellers Baines Moreno (Long 3.9)
      Salah Mane KDB Sterling Ozil
      Jesus Welbz (4.5)

      1. Cok3y5murf
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Welbeck is nailed imo

        1. SADIO SANÉ
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          think I'm gonna risk it

    13. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Best option? Currently have 2 each of pool, city and arsenal.

      A. Kompany Ozil.
      B. Sane Milner
      C. Kdb Moreno

    14. camarozz
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Think iv settled on this FH team

      Dubravka

      Baines /Milner /Bellerin

      Salah(c)/Silva/Sterling/Shaq/Mane

      Jesus/Laca

      (3.9/Perez /Long /Tomkins)

      G2G ?

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Zaha can destroy wat

    15. adidasOriginals
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Are we likely to get a Liverpool leak in the morning?

      1. Volley127
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        The leak is already out.

        1. adidasOriginals
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          where then?

      2. Collie01
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Got it already

    16. Chelsea222
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Crazy to captain sterling over Salah?

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        No, Sterling can haul on a good day

    17. Maddamotha
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Would you chip Mahrez or Son?

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Their teeth? Maybe...

        1. Maddamotha
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          Well which one! Mahrez it is I guess..

    18. Caesar Salahd
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Cant make up my mind, what to do?
      Got 9 players and no FH

      Mustafi, Tomkins, Kiko, Lowton
      Mili, Sterling, Salah
      Barnes, Auba

      A) Kane > Jesus (-8)
      B) Save

      1. Bonus magnet
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        A
        many more taking bigger hits

    19. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Currently on..

      Butland (Dubravka)
      Moreno Bellerin Baines (Tomkins Long)
      Salah Sterling Mane Zaha Kdb
      Laca Jesus (Tulloch)

      Any changes to advise?
      Best captain?

    20. doublyG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Ings anyone instead of Laca/Auba

      1. walkman666
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Really Ings instead of another pool or defender.

        1. doublyG
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          I have Salah and Mane' already. Struggling to find any decent striker options apart from Jesus. Alternative is 4-5-1.

    21. umerlfc
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      If you’re not sure who will start out of Auba and Laca, then why not just go with Welback?

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        If this is prep for EL then Laca starts

      2. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Because he may not start either lol, check FFS team news, they agree.

        1. *Reformed-Character*
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          Oh because that gospel isn't it.....

    22. DJ87
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      RMFHT (Template?)

      Butland
      Bellerín Baines Klavan
      Salah Mané Sterling Sané Zaha
      Lacazette Jesus

      Bench: Nordfeldt - Pérez Tomkins Long

    23. Feed tha Sheep
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Right arsenal fans who is gona start Laca or Auba?

      1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Laca unless Wenger is just totally lying.

        1. Volley127
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 1 month ago

          He only said he wasn't sure on Auba playing or not. Non-commital. Surprised so many going on just that comment personally.

    24. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Anyone doubling on a defence?

      Or just better to spread the risk? On FH.

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Hen & PvA

      2. Collie01
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Everton

    25. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Free Hit:

      Pickford
      Walker - Milner - Bauer
      Salah(c) - Sterling - Zaha - Arnautovic - Shaqiri
      Jesus - Lacazette

      Robles - Ings - Lascelles - Lowton

      1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Can’t argue with that

    26. Jet5605
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Evening all, which changes would you recommend to my FH squad?

      Butland
      VVD - Baines - PvA
      Sterling (c) - Mane - Salah - Sane - Milo
      Laca - Jesus

      Henn - Perez - Bauer - Tark

    27. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Ok all this uncertainty is very unsettling, decision time:

      A. Aubameyang
      B. Lacazette

      1. DrunkPhilosophy
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        Laca based on what almost everyone interpreted from Wenger's conference.

      2. Feed tha Sheep
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        I was on A and now B but really don’t know..
        Wenger said he wanted to play people who got rested in the last game but Laca played so hard to know..

      3. magnet
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        A - he’s cup tied and has been their best player recently

      4. Bonus magnet
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        welbeck and aubameyang start

    28. Jet5605
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Salah minutes prediction?

      Will West Brom's defensive resilience continue?

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 1 month ago

        70'

        No