Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip Used Points Points for all other managers Points for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost 94.9 77.8 74.7
Triple Captain 83.3 84.5 74.7
Free Hit 80.2 84.4 74.4
Wildcard 83.2 84.3 74.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

3,973 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Aram95
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    I currently have 8 players for gw35. Would you do Lingard to Gundogan for -4?

    1. Aram95
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      7 if Robertson doesn't start..

    2. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      i'd do a -8 or -12

    3. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Anyone you could transfer out instead that doesn't have a DGW37? I'd take a hit though

  2. Godot - Fashanu Zealand
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Does anyone know a way to check when a person entered a ML? I've been leading one for the past few GWs, but suddenly there is a new name in the mix and I'm not too happy

    1. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      No real way of entering. If they have no arrow needs to them, they’ll be new as of this most recent gameweek though.

    2. che
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      You can join a mini league any time you want once you get the code. Just gotta suck it up mate

  3. Blue Gaffer
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Got 6 players this go in order to field 11:

    Lukaku, Vardy, Mahrez, Pritchard, Willian———-Sterling, Salah, Zaha, Jesus, Diouf -16 yes or no?

    1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Cover salah plus one more and that's it for me. Otherwise you're just subbing out dgw players

  4. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    whey not David Silva? Saw some posts about rest...rest for what? KDB doesnt fit my budget....

    1. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      on Wild Card, not FH by the way.

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      His home end product isn't great in fpl, better away

    3. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      His son is still seriously ill. Any chance of resting him so he can go back to Spain, Pep obliges.

      1. J âš’ Gimme ur Mané
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        This.

    4. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I had him in my team, but seen a lot of speculation on Blue Moon that he won’t start. Not in the fans’ predicted lineups anyway.

    5. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      ok, fair enough. cheers all.

  5. Yogi_mike
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Btm
    Sane or Dilva

  6. Manani
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    who would score more?

    Jesus this GW
    or
    Kane next GW

  7. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Why are people so sure that Jesus will lead the line? Pep could easily go with Bernardo false 9.

    1. OldBenKenobi
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      So no strikers are nailed lol well then may just go with Wood and Perez

      1. Bob McMayday
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Wood isn't nailed, Heaton pushing for a start up front with Pope now owning the GK spot

      2. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Vokes due a start... 😛

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      "easily"? when was the last time he didn't play either Aguero or Jesus in the league when one of them was available? or am I missing your sarcasm?

    3. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      😀

    4. J âš’ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Bernardo false 9 😆

    5. JohnnyMagrinho
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Can’t be posting such a thing at midnight mate. You’re gonna deprive a lot of worn-out sun-stroked would-be managers of a well-deserved blissful sleep!

      (Hyphens are great by the way).

  8. pjanns
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    GTG or what do yoju think? On a free hit..
    Pickford
    Chambers - Baines - Mustafi
    D. Silva - Salah - Mane - Sterling
    Firmino - Jesus - Aubemayang
    (Elliot - Mili - xx -xx )

    1. BRFC1883
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      firmino not starting

  9. CrouchDown
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    How's this FH team looking guys?

    Karius

    Walker Bellerin Baines

    Salah Mane Sterling Ozil Zaha

    Jesus (C) Welbeck

    Subs: Nordfelt, Long Dummett Campbell

    1. VDiesel26
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Welbeck...brave

      1. CrouchDown
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Think it helps the rest of my team a lot. Also uncertainly with Auba/Laca

    2. J âš’ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Looks good apart from Ozil and Welbeck.

      Ozil is just a rubish Ramsey 😉

      Ozil to Ramsey

      Welbeck to Auba

      1. *Reformed-Character*
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Absolute sheep

        1. J âš’ Gimme ur Mané
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          And how is that?

  10. Pep's Money Laundry
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    A. Mane & Klavan
    B. Shaqiri & vvd/milner

  11. UnitedFan
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Ideal number of starters on the bench for FH?

    RP.

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      May as well get 2.

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      0 if you're reasonably sure you'll get your XI started

      1. Volley127
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        With 3 Man City players surely that's near impossible.

        2 should be easy with Long at 4.0 + another.

    3. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I want 2... just in case Anfield Express/BF are wrong about the Liverpool line up.

      1. Jairzinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        And don’t forget all the other teams. Man City could throw a surprise or two.

        Other teams may rotate for the hell of it, or for injuries/illnesses that we don’t know about.

    4. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      At least 1.

      Don't see why you wouldn't have Long there. If going with 3 forwards you might as well get King too.

      1. UnitedFan
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah, currently have Long and that's it.

    5. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Ideally all of them.

      Minimum 2 outfielders, but why not make it 3? Crouch, Cork, Long are about as cheap as they come and should all start.

  12. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    my team differential : tosun
    my arsenal attacking option : ozil

    what about yours ? thanks 🙂

    1. camarozz
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Shaqiri

      Silva

      Probably soooo wrong

    2. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Differential: Coleman/Gundogan
      Arsenal: Ramsey

    3. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Tosun
      N/A (maybe Bellerin at best)

    4. DrunkPhilosophy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Moreno

      Laca

    5. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      thanks all, should have added captain, jesus for me

    6. carpenio
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Zaha

      Auba

    7. Bonus magnet
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      differential-> Danny Ings

      arsenal -> Auba and now that everyone has Laca he may be another differential

  13. Bissisine
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    A. Mane, Van Aarnholt
    B. Øzil , Mustafi

    1. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      A

  14. SADIO SANÉ
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Welbeck a terrible idea? Just play 'safe' with Wood?

    Pickford
    Bellers Baines Moreno (Long 3.9)
    Salah Mane KDB Sterling Ozil
    Jesus Welbz (4.5)

    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Welbeck is nailed imo

      1. SADIO SANÉ
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        think I'm gonna risk it

  15. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Best option? Currently have 2 each of pool, city and arsenal.

    A. Kompany Ozil.
    B. Sane Milner
    C. Kdb Moreno

  16. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Think iv settled on this FH team

    Dubravka

    Baines /Milner /Bellerin

    Salah(c)/Silva/Sterling/Shaq/Mane

    Jesus/Laca

    (3.9/Perez /Long /Tomkins)

    G2G ?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Zaha can destroy wat

  17. adidasOriginals
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Are we likely to get a Liverpool leak in the morning?

    1. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      The leak is already out.

      1. adidasOriginals
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        where then?

    2. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Got it already

  18. Chelsea222
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Crazy to captain sterling over Salah?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      No, Sterling can haul on a good day

  19. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Would you chip Mahrez or Son?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Their teeth? Maybe...

      1. Maddamotha
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Well which one! Mahrez it is I guess..

  20. Caesar Salahd
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Cant make up my mind, what to do?
    Got 9 players and no FH

    Mustafi, Tomkins, Kiko, Lowton
    Mili, Sterling, Salah
    Barnes, Auba

    A) Kane > Jesus (-8)
    B) Save

    1. Bonus magnet
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      A
      many more taking bigger hits

  21. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Currently on..

    Butland (Dubravka)
    Moreno Bellerin Baines (Tomkins Long)
    Salah Sterling Mane Zaha Kdb
    Laca Jesus (Tulloch)

    Any changes to advise?
    Best captain?

  22. doublyG
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Ings anyone instead of Laca/Auba

    1. walkman666
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Really Ings instead of another pool or defender.

      1. doublyG
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I have Salah and Mane' already. Struggling to find any decent striker options apart from Jesus. Alternative is 4-5-1.

  23. umerlfc
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    If you’re not sure who will start out of Auba and Laca, then why not just go with Welback?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      If this is prep for EL then Laca starts

    2. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Because he may not start either lol, check FFS team news, they agree.

      1. *Reformed-Character*
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Oh because that gospel isn't it.....

  24. DJ87
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    RMFHT (Template?)

    Butland
    Bellerín Baines Klavan
    Salah Mané Sterling Sané Zaha
    Lacazette Jesus

    Bench: Nordfeldt - Pérez Tomkins Long

  25. Feed tha Sheep
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Right arsenal fans who is gona start Laca or Auba?

    1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Laca unless Wenger is just totally lying.

      1. Volley127
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        He only said he wasn't sure on Auba playing or not. Non-commital. Surprised so many going on just that comment personally.

  26. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Anyone doubling on a defence?

    Or just better to spread the risk? On FH.

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Hen & PvA

    2. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Everton

  27. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Free Hit:

    Pickford
    Walker - Milner - Bauer
    Salah(c) - Sterling - Zaha - Arnautovic - Shaqiri
    Jesus - Lacazette

    Robles - Ings - Lascelles - Lowton

    1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Can’t argue with that

  28. Jet5605
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Evening all, which changes would you recommend to my FH squad?

    Butland
    VVD - Baines - PvA
    Sterling (c) - Mane - Salah - Sane - Milo
    Laca - Jesus

    Henn - Perez - Bauer - Tark

  29. TLF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Ok all this uncertainty is very unsettling, decision time:

    A. Aubameyang
    B. Lacazette

    1. DrunkPhilosophy
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Laca based on what almost everyone interpreted from Wenger's conference.

    2. Feed tha Sheep
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I was on A and now B but really don’t know..
      Wenger said he wanted to play people who got rested in the last game but Laca played so hard to know..

    3. magnet
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      A - he’s cup tied and has been their best player recently

    4. Bonus magnet
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      welbeck and aubameyang start

  30. Jet5605
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Salah minutes prediction?

    Will West Brom's defensive resilience continue?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      70'

      No