Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. DV8R
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Play Kiko or Tomkins?

    1. DrunkPhilosophy
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Kiko

    2. Maddamotha
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Do you think Kiko will play? Have him myself..

      1. DV8R
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I think he will. No idea but I have Long/Tomkins as subs anyway

    3. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Kiko for sure, OOP.

  2. Z
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which team looks stronger?

    (a) BUTLAND
    Bellerin, Baines, MORENO
    Salah, Mane, Ozil, Sterling, SANE
    Lacazette, Jesus

    (b) EDERSON
    Bellerin, Baines, VVD
    Salah, Mane, Ozil, Sterling, ZAHA
    Lacazette, Jesus

    1. DrunkPhilosophy
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. DrunkPhilosophy
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Great team value btw, I can only afford a similar team with Zaha for Ozil.. see below

    4. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b

  3. DrunkPhilosophy
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Butland
    Baines Moreno Bellerin
    Zaha Salah Silva Mane Sterling
    Jesus Lacazette
    3.9GK Perez Long Dummet

    Max I get with my low SV, good enough?

    1. Richd
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Perfect

      1. DrunkPhilosophy
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers!

    2. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      As long as you're happy with Laca, looks great.

      1. DrunkPhilosophy
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        What's your issue with him? even if Auba starts Laca should be central, and would probably play 60+ mins against a leaky defense away from home..

        1. Volley127
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Should be but you never know. If you're confident he'll start then go for it !

    3. *Reformed-Character*
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Been posted 100 times already

      1. DrunkPhilosophy
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        If you mean it's templet I'm okay with that.. trying to keep my lead in cash MLs and hopefully breaking into 50k overall by end of season.

  4. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Bellerin a safe ootion in terms of starting?

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yep. Had his rest.

    2. VDiesel26
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Most probably will start, didn't play last week (Would say safer option than any of the other arsenal defenders)

    3. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

  5. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Is Sterling worth a -4?

    It would mean playing Ogbonna otherwise.

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yep, lock him in, he's missing open goals but they'll soon be going in

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Think he'll start, Nettles?

    2. DrunkPhilosophy
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes surely.

  6. mcrayeps
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any news on bellerin? Is he a doubt?

    A) Bellerin + Sane
    B) Bauer + KDB

    1. VDiesel26
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Most probably will start, didn't play last week (Would say safer option than any of the other arsenal defenders)

    2. krehbieh1
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B...Feel KDB is safer than Sane, but honestly both are probably starting the celebration

  7. Ten Season Wonder
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Right, okay; It's come down to this...

    A). Butland, Tomkins, Barnes
    B). Hennessey, Bellerin, Crouch

  8. Somar
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Monreal starting tomorrow?

    1. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No.

      1. Somar
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Evidence?

    2. VDiesel26
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Possible but has played in the last 3/4 games in a row, personally think Kolasinac might get a game in his place

      Would go for bellerin if you can afford

    3. Somar
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Cheers boys.

  9. yanky
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    no salah. im 70pts back from my mate...thoughts on this gamble? 1 good sub in long but can’t see needing more than that...

    Karius (3.9)
    Baines Bellerin VVD (Long 3.9)
    Shaq KDB Silva Mane Ozil
    Laca Jesus (4.5)

    1. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Why no Salah?

      1. yanky
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        differential, i need to make up 70pts and my mate will def play it safe with salah (c) and lacazette

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I'm assuming this is a free hit team.

      Relies a lot on a Liverpool clean sheet. If you are chasing such a big gap have you considered big differentials such as Ings?

      1. yanky
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        i have but then i end up with a more balanced squad and more money on the bench. especially with no salah

    3. DrunkPhilosophy
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Why not play it a bit safer with Salah, at least you'll block his captain and make up grounds with your other 10 players.. assuming he doesn't have FH too..

      If he does then definitely go for it.

  10. UnitedFan
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Sane to start in your opinion? Taken off at 63 mins against Spurs.

  11. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Beginning to get cold feet over Laca now...

    1. E25
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      why?

  12. krehbieh1
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Final decision:

    A) Shaqiri
    B) Tosun

    1) PvA
    2) Bellerin

    1. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A 2

    2. TallestJohn
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A
      hmmmmmm I guess Bellerin

    3. VDiesel26
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a 2 easy

    4. agueroooooney
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B2

    5. krehbieh1
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Thanks, this was key. A & 2 it is!

    6. Bonus magnet
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a1

    7. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b2

  13. agueroooooney
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Order of bench alright?

    Kiko - Barnes - Long

    1. TallestJohn
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Barnes first for me

    2. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I always prefer the attacker first. I think Watford are on the beach so might be tempted to have Kiko last.

      1. mcrayeps
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        This

  14. TallestJohn
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    One midfield spot left on FH. Who to go for?

    Milivojevic
    Zaha
    Arnie
    Shaqiri
    Iwobi

    1. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Zaha for me. Or mili

    2. Yogi_mike
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Zaha

    3. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Zaha for me. Could devastate Watford.

    4. TallestJohn
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Hmm cheers all. I am leaning Palace. Owned Zaha earlier in the season which was fun at times but also frustrating as can have such a big impact on games yet come out with no returns or bonus.

      Feel like his and Mili's returns are often linked but all Mili needs is a cheeky penalty or free kick for bonus.

  15. Malkmus
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Evening all. A little help would be great - FH. Any thoughts? Down to 40 point lead in £300 ML so getting v worried

    X (4.0)
    Long - VVD - X
    Salah - Sterling - Zaha - X
    Auba - Jesus - Laca

    Subs - Mili, Kiko, 3.9

    A - Butland, Ota, Arnie (2.0 itb)
    B - Pickford, Sane, Coleman (0.5 itb)

    Ta !

  16. Ten Season Wonder
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    OKAY BETTER WAY
    It's come down to this...

    A). Butland & Tomkins
    B). Hennessey & Bellerin

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B is more rock'n'roll

  17. Boxwoods
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Captain and Vice:

    A. Auba
    B. Sane
    C. Zaha
    D. Mane
    E. Mili

  18. Yogi_mike
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    If u could fit Ozil into ur squad would u

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Not for Mane, no

      1. Yogi_mike
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I have mane Salah Zaha and Sane

    2. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      That fact that he doesn't fit in mine means no

  19. semiconductor
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Play lascelles or lowton?

    1. TallestJohn
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Big Jamaal (even though I'm benching him for VVD, Milner and Baines)

    2. walkman666
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Lascalles

  20. Desperately Seeking Dusan
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    RMFHT pls:

    Butland
    PVA-Baines-Klavan
    Salah (C)-KDB-Mane-Sterling-Zaha
    Jesus (VC)-Lacazette

    Bench: Adrian (especially since Moyes said he has a decision to make)
    Crouch-Long-Mbemba

  21. Garlana
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Monreal too much of a gamble? Can't afford bellerin and I'd like to get arsenal defensive cover with goal threat

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Too much of a bad defender, ok in fpl though

  22. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Do you think it's too risky to go with Long as only playing bench player on this free hit team?

    Butland
    Bellerin, Baines, Klavan
    Mane, Sterling, KDB, Salah, Zaha
    Jesus, Lacazette

    Subs: Mäenpää, Long, 4.5 striker, Goldson

    1. @SirAustinDangerPowers
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No it isnt. Only player from the XI not starting or getting any mins might be Bellerin. So with Long you are covered.

    2. TallestJohn
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Think you should be okay. Could go with some combination of Newcastle/Palace keepers which might give you enough for a playing striker or at least Mariappa.

    3. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Cheers both

  23. @SirAustinDangerPowers
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    OPTION for 1 week GW 35

    a) Dilva + Welbeck

    b) King (SWA MID) + Laca

    Added advantage of Option b is it enables Kane + Son to come in for GW 36 and beyond.

  24. Sánchez
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Right. So in the Europa last games vs Milan and Zenit, Wenger has gone with Laza, Ozil, Mkhi or Laca, Ozil, Welbz

    Mkhi out would indicate Laca Ozil Welbz play vs Atletico. If he wants them getting time together this weekend, which is most likely to get 90?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ozil can do 90'

    2. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I think Ozil. Laca replaced by Aub after 60, Dat Guy off too cos he’s made of glass and Wenger will protect with Mikhi touch and go for Thur.

  25. suddenorgan
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Ings anyone?

    1. Sánchez
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      o/

    2. TallestJohn
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Such a big drop off from Firmino but good luck if you punt

      1. suddenorgan
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I mean, he's a bargain isn't he? can only think people don't have him as they'd rather go 3-5-2.. I've dropped Sane for Otamendi

  26. magnet
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Most people captaining Salah but surely he’ll be on reduced minutes. Jesus a better option?

    1. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus could as well be on reduced minutes. All speculation but Salah has proven time and time again he's the best captaincy choice.

      Captain anyone else at your peril, fortune favours the brave though..

  27. Jet5605
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Chasing leader who has a 10 point lead. He has no City and will probably captain Salah. Should I do the same or captain Sterling or Jesus? Using my FH. He used his ages ago.

    1. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah. You're FH over his non-FH should make you gain massively anyway.

    2. Aubaaaaa
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Do the same.

  28. SADIO SANÉ
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Dubravka anyone? might need to in order to get a playing bench...

    1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      hes my bench

  29. Nigawan
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    a little help guys 🙂

    a) Aubameyang and Shaqiri
    b) Tosun and Mane

  30. Johnny too hotty
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any non free hitters out there???
    Feelibg fairly relaxed tbh. Can't see us losing more than 20 points max.

    Willian and lukaka to sterling and jesus for a hit ok?