Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. mr messi
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Why are so many going with Butland? Stoke hardly likely to keep a cleanie

    1. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Good question. Probably because spaces filled up with attacking players from most of the teams more likely to keep a CS

    2. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Makes lots of saves and if they do keep Burnley out has a strong chance of Baps. Only keepers I’d be confident in a CS this week would be Ederson or Karius. I want 3 outfield players from those teams though.

    3. Defcons are for Kinnear
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Save points and a good chance Stoke will be fitter than Burnley

    4. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I can’t decide which defence to gamble on, but I’m not thinking about Stoke.

      For me, it’s one of Arsenal, Everton, Burnley, Newcastle.

      1. Zilla
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        City?

  2. Blue Gaffer
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Mahrez to Salah -4?

    1. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes. Unless you can keep Mahrez for his DGW and take a -8 to get Salah some other way

    3. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      -2

    4. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sure

  3. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Baines or PVA? No other EVE or CPL defenders

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Baines, keeps Monday alive

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I'm struggling with this too. Currently on PVA as it allows me to cover some risks by upgrading my bench slightly

  4. Blue Gaffer
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Laca or Jesus or both?

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Both

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Both

    3. doublyG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus

    4. VDiesel26
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Both equally as good or bad as each other...both

  5. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Rank in order for FH:

    1) Laca
    2) Welbz
    3) Auba

  6. Johnny too hotty
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Ive only got 8 players this week. Jesus cap tho

  7. mcrayeps
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    FHTeam :

    Butland
    Bellerin / Baines / Milner
    Zaha / Salah / Sane / Mane / Sterling
    Jesus / Lacazette

    (3.9 / Crouch / Long / Dummet)

    Gtg? Any doubts on my team?

    1. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Anyone?

  8. Jairzinho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which combo do you prefer please? 🙂

    A) Lacazette + Milivojevic

    B) Mane + Coleman

    1. Shultan
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. bombayblues
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    4. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Close call.

    5. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  9. Legomané
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    ‪Any thoughts on this FH squad (0.2 ITB) - reluctant to lose Auba as my chasing rival will probably hold him...Mili good bench cover 🙂 cheers ‬

    Dubravka
    Klavan Tomkins Lowton
    Salah Mané Sterling Sané
    Jesus Lacazette Aubameyang

    (3.9 Milivojevic Long Dummet)

    1. Begbie.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I speak from experience when I say Mili being on the bench will punish you. For weeks he's been my 5th mid too and every week he does something.

      Nice team tho.

      1. Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Ive a 50-50 record with him on the bench so far...only missed one haul since getting him in 🙂

      2. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Same with me. Then I changed him to Gundogan and benched his points also.

    2. Uncle Gamst
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      like it

    3. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Aubame to Perez and upgrade elsewhere

  10. @SirAustinDangerPowers
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    OPTION for GW 35

    a) Dilva + Welbeck

    b) King (SWA MID) + Laca

    Added advantage of Option b is it enables Kane + Son to come in for GW 36 and beyond.

  11. E25
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Free hitters - who are you getting and why?
    A) Auba
    B) Laca

    1. UnitedFan
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B, Wenger's comments. They both could start though, but we don't know.

      1. E25
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Surely if they both start Auba gets more minutes?

        1. UnitedFan
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Probably, but like I said we don't know if that's gonna be the case.

    2. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Potentially both ^

      Chance they both start, Welbz comes on for Laca on 60 and Auba moves to the centre

  12. UnitedFan
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Best Pool defender?

    A) VVD

    B) Moreno

    C) Klavan

    1. TallestJohn
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      VVD. Can see him carrying goal threat himself and if WBA want to play a crossing game he could clear up the bonus

    2. doublyG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Milner

  13. Yogi_mike
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    G2G? Too much funds in mid?

    Butland
    Baines Moreno Kompany
    Salah Sane Ozil Zaha Mane
    Jesus Laca

    3.9 PVA Crouch Long

  14. The Curse of Falcao
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    FH Active. G2G or any last minute changes?
    0.0 ITB
    Butland
    Bellerin Klavan Baines
    Sterling Salah(c) D.Silva Zaha Mane
    Lacazette Jesus

    Grant|Crouch|Tomkins|Long

    1. Uncle Gamst
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Looking good and 2 of bench playing 🙂

    2. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Same exact outfield players for me but I have Sane to your D. Silva

  15. Gruu
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    RMFHT please

    Butland
    Baines, PVA, Robertson
    Salah, KdB, Sterling, Zaha
    Jesus, Firmino, Laca

    (3.9, Mili, Long, 3.9)
    0itb

    1. TallestJohn
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Leaked team suggests Robertson and Firmino won't start. At least the bench should cover them but I'd probably look elsewhere.

      1. Gruu
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers mate. Firmino to Mane then?

    2. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Firmino won’t start

    3. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Firmino mili for Perez mane

  16. JM11
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    1.) Jesus(C)
    or
    2.) Sterling(C)

    I'll be behind the sofa will Salah is playing..

    1. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      He will play

      1. Begbie.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        That's what he's saying. I guess his rival has Salah captain and he's chasing so needs to captain one of these two?

        Jesus. More nailed.

        1. JM11
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Yes precisely that. Meant to say while* Salah is playing. Cheers.

        2. mcrayeps
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Ah okay.. Ill go with sterling 😉

  17. che
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any links to leaked Liverpool team?

      1. che
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers

      2. adidasOriginals
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        is that leak reliable?

        1. Begbie.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Has been.

        2. J âš’ Gimme ur Mané
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          He’s got it right every single time I think

        3. Kane Toads
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          AE is highly regarded. Refer to some comments on Hot Topics (GW35)

          https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/04/19/scout-notes-lukaku-has-his-say/?hc_page=1#hc_comment_18034135

      3. che
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Any Arsenal leaks?

        1. Uncle Gamst
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Only in defence 😉

  18. Shardlow
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Got 2 FT and 0.9m. Only TC left. My team for this week is:

    Hart (De Gea)
    Tarkowski, Lowton, Mustafi (Christensen, Simpson)
    Salah (Mahrez, Son, Lingard, Willian)
    Auba, Barnes (Kane)

    1. Mahrez, Son, Christensen >> KDB, Sterling, Klavan (-4) to field 10
    2. Mahrez, Willian, Christensen >> Sterling, Sane, 4.8 Def (or less) (-4)
    3. Mahrez, Willian, Lingard >> Sterling, Sane, Milivojevic (-4)
    4. Other

    Cheers.

  19. HD7
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    FH team... thoughts?

    Butland
    Baines Klavan Mustafi
    Mane Sterling KDB Salah Zaha
    Laca Jesus(C)

    Bench: Crouch, Kiko, Long

    A) G2G
    B) KDB to Ramsey
    C) Mane to Shaq
    D) Both changes

    1. TeddiPonza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Very good. Keep as it is

  20. adidasOriginals
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Is Salah going to start tomorrow then, people?

    1. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Expected to, yes

  21. Rainer
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Score Predictions?

    Watford - Palace
    Stoke - Burnley

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      2-3
      0-2

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      0-3
      1-0

    3. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1-2
      1-1

      1. Zilla
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Ha 😀

    4. willl
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1-1
      2-2

    5. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1-2
      1-1

    6. TallestJohn
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1-2
      1-1

    7. CravenA
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1-3
      2-1

    8. Old Wulfrunian
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      2-2
      2-0

      1. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks all!

        Plenty of Zaha/Mili owners 😉

  22. Forever In Our Shadow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Help for the Mrs please.

    1 - Should she play any of the bench over the first 11?

    2 - Is the bench order correct?

    https://i.imgur.com/HuSSbs7.png

    1. TeddiPonza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Play Bellerin, bench Tomkins

      1. Uncle Gamst
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        What he said

  23. The Mandalorian
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Is anyone bringing in Tuloch in their front 3?

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Nope.

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Campbell

  24. doublyG
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    How does my final FH team look:

    Butland
    Milner, Bellerin, Baines
    Salah, Sterling, KDB, Zaha, Mane'
    Jesus, Tosun

    Bench: Maenpaa, Tomkins, Long, Campbell

    1. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Looks pretty good! I'm on the same front 7 + baines.

      1. doublyG
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Not super excited about Tosun but prefer it to a 4-5-1

        1. Volley127
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Same to be honest. Only other option is Wood IMO. At least Tosun gives a MNF player too!

    2. Sánchez
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Really like it

      1. doublyG
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks both

    3. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Prefer Pérez or Barnes/Wood to Tosun

      1. doublyG
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I had Perez previously. I have Barnes in my original squad. Him and Wood might be slight risks due to fixture congestion and they looked tired in the second half vs chelsea

  25. Point-one short
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Ramsey too much of a risk?

    1. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Coming back from minor injury, I would say so. Shame really but not worth the risk IMO.

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wenger protects him but if he wants real prep he plays

    3. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Depends on who else ur considering. Also depends on the rest of ur team

  26. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Zaha or Shaqiri??

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Zaha

    2. Begbie.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Zaha

    3. Volley127
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Z

  27. Shakshuka
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Good to go on a free hit? Good luck and thanks!

    Pickford
    Walker Klavan Holebas
    Salah (v) Mane Sterling Shaqiri Ozil
    Jesus (c) Lacazette

    Nordfeldt Perez Long Mbemba

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Downgrade Ozil & upgrade Holebas

  28. Scheister
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    GTG eh?

    Pickford
    Baines Klavan PVA
    Salah(c) Mane Sterling Sane Zaha
    Jesus Laca

    Robles, Barnes Long Zeegelaar

  29. Doctorin' the Tadic
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A. Zaha + Perez
    B. Milivojevic + Tosun

    1. Begbie.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A for me

  30. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A or B?
    A. Mane, PVA
    B. Ozil, VVD (double Liverpool def)

    1. Uncle Gamst
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B for me