Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Old Wulfrunian
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Do you we think that Koscielny will start?

    1. syke63
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wouldn't get him anyways

  2. mcrayeps
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    So i got the leaked lineups for my rivals free hit team..

    My team :
    Butland
    Bellerin / Milner / Baines
    Sterling / Zaha / Salah / Mane / Sane
    Jesus / Laca
    (3.9 / Crouch / Long / Dummet)

    Rival Leaked Lineups :
    Pickford
    Kompany / Klavan / PVA
    Salah / KDB / Mane / Ozil
    Auba / Jesus / Tosun
    (3.9 / Bauer / Long / King)

    Which one will win? Currently leading on 27 points..

    1. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      And if his team better, what should i do to keep the lead gap points? 😉

      1. Geezer
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        You could just copy and keep the lead. But rival had 10 more hours to change his team

  3. Sergio Giorgini
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Regarding the Auba/Laca conversation - who starts on left of front three for Arsenal if Auba doesn't?

    1. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Welbz?

      Chance Auba moves to the middle on 60 with Welbz subbing on for Laca potentially.

      1. Sergio Giorgini
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Welbz is more right-sided, no? Tryna convince myself that Auba is a safe pick, thinking he is personally due to versatility...

      2. syke63
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        My opinion also.

  4. Legomané
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    1. Auba Klavan Tomkins Dubravka (Milivojevic)

    2. Zaha VVD Bellerín Butland (Perez)

    Reluctant to lose Auba as chasing rival will likely keep him...

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      2 and maybe find a way to start Perez

  5. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    1) Klavan Baines
    2) Moreno PVA

    1. Yank Revolution
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1

  6. Ravager
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Let's try this again. Currently on this on FH. Suggestions?

    GW 35

    Pickford (Hennessey)
    Milner Bellerin Otamendi (Long Dummett)
    Mane Salah (c) Sterling Zaha Shaqiri
    Lacazette Jesus (vc) (Crouch)

    1. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      What about downgrade Hennessey and Dummet and upgrade Crouch to Perez?

      1. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers. Thanks for the suggestion

    2. syke63
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      The whole choice is template. Couldn't pick a thing wrong with that team but is Salah a good c pick cos he probably won't play 90?

      1. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I know he can do a lot in limited time...and it's more to cover to be honest.

  7. OldBenKenobi
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Dummett or Kiko?
    Will be first on my bench before Long and Crouch

    1. OldBenKenobi
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Or Tomkins over both?

      1. MTPockets
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Ideally Kiko, but minutes last game a worry. Otherwise Tomkins.

      2. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Tomkins

    2. camarozz
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ok im down to this decision and im done messing around.

      A) Bellerin and Klavan + 3 playing subs

      B) Mustafi and Milner + 2 playing subs

      Thanks guys

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

      2. F4L
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

      3. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

    3. F4L
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      How necessary will it be to have Kane for the run in on a scale of 1 to 10?

      1. mcrayeps
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        11

      2. Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        73

      3. F4L
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        hmmmm

      4. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        For me 10, can't see past GW37 TC

        1. Cok3y5murf
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Hey G-Whizz, what do we make of this DS stat?

          CPL: wat -134

          Watford advantage?

          1. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Apparently solely on the DS figures but looking at the Bookies they reckon:

            Watford 2/1
            Palace 31/20
            Draw 12/5

            Palace favourites on both odds and (just by 1%) cs odds so I would side with them tbh as I don't ever fancy going "all in" on a DS of under 350 🙂

            Then again last week Newcastle beat Arsenal with a DS of only 13 I think it was so make of it what you will...

            1. Cok3y5murf
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              Also WBA beat Utd with a DS of -734 😛

              1. G-Whizz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                I still stand by that stat, no one saw that one coming, not me, not the bookies, not the DS stats and probably not even you 😆

                1. Cok3y5murf
                  • 9 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  Agreed. I did captain Lukaku after all 🙂

                  1. G-Whizz
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 8 Years
                    7 years, 10 months ago

                    Same lol

    4. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Dunno about you lot, but I'd rather have Auba playing on the wing than Lace playing up top anyway!!!!

      1. Greenbackbøøg…
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        laca outscored him last week

        1. Ten Season Wonder
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          once since january haha

      2. Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        How about both?

        1. Uncle Gamst
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          What are chances that both Auba and Laca start?

          1. Legomané
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            100% before Wenger's presser here, to 0%, to maybe Yeyyysss Maybe's No

    5. Al
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Any improvements to be made or gtg?

      Butland
      Ota Milner Baines
      Salah Sterling Mane Zaha Shaqiri
      Jesus Laca

      Bench: Nordfeldt. Bauer, Tomkins, Tulluch.

      1. Ten Season Wonder
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Shaq is a diff good luck

        1. Al
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Cheers. Fancy them up against tired Burnley in must win

          1. Ten Season Wonder
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            true. If they don't win they are as good as down

    6. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      (Bottomed)
      Final piece of advice please?

      Which duo to play alongside BAINES & KLAVAN?

      A). HENN & BELLERIN
      B). BUTLAND & PVA

      Thanks in advance

      1. Garlana
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I prefer b

    7. pressdpm
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Random question.

      Do you think it's better or worse that we can no longer see if people have activated wildcards?

      Best of luck this week all.

      1. MTPockets
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Can't remember ever being able to see that.

          1. pressdpm
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Couple of seasons ago you could

        • Samwise the Brave
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A little bit of attention and you have a decent chance noticing. Especially in a week like this when you expect it to be common. Watch for changes in their team value

          Personally I'd prefer it be hidden

          1. pressdpm
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Yeah that's true. I'm just an idiot for not making a note of my mates TV!

        • Pep says
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          It's bad enough you're able to see transfers and money changes in order to find out what transfers they made and block them imo

          1. Like an Egyptian Magician
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            lol

      2. dsefton
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A) Lacazette
        B) Firmino
        C) Aubameyang

        Thanks, just for this GW

        1. Apollo Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A

        2. dunas_dog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          C

        3. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Do not choose B

      3. blind faith
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Can't decide so FH to have both Laca and Auba... thoughts?

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          bad move imo.

          1. blind faith
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Both on form though. Both could get some minutes

        2. Ten Season Wonder
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          If you have the spare funds to do so, then all good

        3. MTPockets
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Or neither in my case.

            1. Nomar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              This

          • Pep says
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            I'm going for Welbeck

        4. HD7
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          KDB Sane Ozil or Shaq for one spot?

          1. MTPockets
              7 years, 10 months ago

              KDB's popular. I think Sane.

          2. SAY MY NAME
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Ozil or Arnie?

            Coleman or Bellerin?

            thanks

          3. FPL_WILDCARD
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            A) Cech, VVD & Arnautovic

            B) Butland, Klavan & Ozil

            1. Apollo Sanchez
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              A

          4. Lord Flashheart
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            A arnie or shaquiri?
            B auba or laca?

            On free hit of

          5. che
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            A. Tosun and Milivojevic
            B. Rodriguez and Ramsey

            1. Lord Flashheart
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              A

              1. che
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                Who to bench?

                1. Lord Flashheart
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  Mili

                  1. che
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    7 years, 10 months ago

                    That’s what I’m on but just can’t help tinkering. Cheers

                    1. G-Whizz
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • Has Moderation Rights
                      • 8 Years
                      7 years, 10 months ago

                      I've just tinkered to Tosun ahead of Barnes and Wood. Think I'm at the point now where I just want the GW to start lol

                      1. che
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 11 Years
                        7 years, 10 months ago

                        Aye, I’m going to bed now, trying not to think about it!

                        1. G-Whizz
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • Has Moderation Rights
                          • 8 Years
                          7 years, 10 months ago

                          Good luck, have a stormer of a week!

          6. dunas_dog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            For this week and possibly rest of season Alonso to

            A Kompany or
            B Van Dijk

            1. Lord Flashheart
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              A

          7. Liastro ⭐️
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Jesus or Salah for captain?

            1. Ten Season Wonder
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              close one but I am going Salah with Jesus vc

            2. Uncle Gamst
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              Salah for me

          8. Ten Season Wonder
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Promise i will clear off to bed after this final piece of advice please?

            Which duo to play alongside BAINES & KLAVAN?

            A). HENN & BELLERIN
            B). BUTLAND & PVA

            Thanks in advance 🙂 x

            1. MTPockets
                7 years, 10 months ago

                If you're asking that, must fancy Bellerin returns so A.
                (I don't)

                1. Ten Season Wonder
                  • 12 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  (i dont) ?

                  1. MTPockets
                      7 years, 10 months ago

                      I don't fancy returns for Bellerin or Butland, so can't decide.

                2. Ajax Hamsterdam
                  • 11 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  a

              • CarsonYeung
                • 13 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                Here she is:
                Pickford (3.9)
                Baines Mustafi Milner (Long, 3.9)
                Salah (C) Mané Sterling Sané Zaha
                Lacazette Jesus (Crouch)

                Viva Anfield Express

                1. camarozz
                  • 11 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  Exact same team but for Silva over Sane.

                  Over and back with

                  Bellerin + Klavan or
                  Mustafi + Milner...

                  Cant decide

                  1. CarsonYeung
                    • 13 Years
                    7 years, 10 months ago

                    Mustafi and Milner the better combo for me. Mustafi has decent goal threat, plus Milner should be playing in midfield according to Anfield Express, potential for attacking returns from him

                    1. camarozz
                      • 11 Years
                      7 years, 10 months ago

                      Thanks for that. Think im settled so. Had to get Zaha in!!! Could do very well.

              • camarozz
                • 11 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                Who will score more?

                Bellerin or Milner??

              • Lignja
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                A. Ozil, Henesy, Lowton
                B. Zaha, Pope, Pva

                1. Like an Egyptian Magician
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  B

              • HD7
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                A) Klavan, KDB
                B) Milner, Sane

                1. Uncle Gamst
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  A if you have the cash

                2. Like an Egyptian Magician
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  B

              • Point-one short
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                Do you think David Silva starts on Sunday?

                1. Uncle Gamst
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  Yep

                2. Somar
                  • 9 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  Confirmed he's starting via Etihad Express

                3. Like an Egyptian Magician
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  I’d put his chances at less than 50%

                  1. G-Whizz
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 8 Years
                    7 years, 10 months ago

                    Why?

              • james 101
                • 14 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                FH Team gtg / any changes to set up?

                Pickford
                PVA Baines Milner
                Salah(c) Sterling KDB. Mane. Zaha
                Laca. Jesus(vc)

                Bench: Nord, Perez, Tomkins, Long

                Thanks!!

                1. Ajax Hamsterdam
                  • 11 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  not sure about milner get subbed early...nice punt though

                  1. Bob McMayday
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    7 years, 10 months ago

                    Milner getting subbed early could lock clean sheet points in for him

                2. syke63
                  • 12 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  If you're happy I couldn't recommend better.

                3. Like an Egyptian Magician
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  Gtg

              • SAY MY NAME
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                ozil over arnie? price doesn't matter

                1. Ajax Hamsterdam
                  • 11 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  by miles !!!

                  1. SAY MY NAME
                    • 8 Years
                    7 years, 10 months ago

                    thanks

                  2. Naboo
                    • 13 Years
                    7 years, 10 months ago

                    but not points

                    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
                      • 11 Years
                      7 years, 10 months ago

                      why not ?

                2. syke63
                  • 12 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  Going for it too.