Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Kevtheotter
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Where is the Laca love coming from? Assume Wenger said something? Can’t seem to find anything

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      he said he will field a side similar to the one which will play against a madrid

    2. manutd99
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Press conference suggesting he needs to give lacazette gametime before thurs

    3. magnet
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I don’t think he starts as he said he starting players rested for Newcastle game

  2. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    quick captain poll

    jesus for me

    1. camarozz
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah coz im a sheep.

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        any other game i would but i just cant help feeling than 3 days before 1/2 final of c1 he might play with the break on. also pool couldnt break w brom at anfiel, not that it means anything 🙂

    2. SAY MY NAME
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      sterling, jesus vc (have salah also )

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        nice choice sterling

    3. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      on Salah now but tempted by Sterling. think he is more likely for minutes and don't think WBA are as likely to roll over as Swansea

  3. che
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    FH team
    Butland (Foster)
    Baines, Klavan, Bellerin (Long) (Yedlin)
    Sterling(c) Salah, Mané, Sané (Milivojevic)
    Laca, Jesus, Tosun
    Any changes?

    1. Marquis-Cha-Cha
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Maybe start Mili over Tosun.

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Tosun for Perez

  4. Alli
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Hennessey (DDG)
    Lowton - Tarkowski - Kiko - (Davies - Chilwell)
    Salah(c) - Milivojevic - (Mahrez - Son - Willian)
    Barnes - (Kane - Lukaku)

    No FH - 1 FT - 0 ITB

    A. Mahrez, Son > Sterling, D.Silva (-4)
    B. Mahrez, Davies > Sterling, Kompany (-4)

    1. FPLHaggis
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  5. FFPro
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    On FH, both same price.

    1) Walker Baines
    2) Kompany Coleman

    1. FPLHaggis
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      2 personally

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1 baines on pen

    3. che
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1 more nailed and more attacking

    4. Samwise the Brave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1, goal and assist threats

    5. syke63
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      2 close though

    6. Yank Revolution
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1

  6. FPLHaggis
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Am I G2G?

    Butland
    Milner PVA Klavan
    KDB Salah Ozil Sterling Zaha
    Laca Jesus (c)

    (Grant Long 3.9 Crouch)

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Maybe lose the Liverpool def double up

  7. Rainer
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on this bunch? Its different at least...

    Butland
    Coleman Bellerin Baines Moreno
    Salah (C) KDB Mane Ozil Sterling
    Jesus

    Grant; Crouch, Long, Tulloch

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      very nice

    2. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Is it allowed to go without Laca?

      1. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I'm sick of looking at him 😆

    3. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Lose the Everton def double up

    4. syke63
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Laughed at first but the shortage of striker choices make it an option. Not crazy at all.

      1. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        So did I when I confirmed Ozil!

  8. Spokey
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    I have 11 players for GW 35. Considering Mahrez to Ozil and bench Fernandez. yay or nay?

    1. Samwise the Brave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes, I have doubts on kiko playing

  9. Samwise the Brave
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Late night RMT. Chasing a 45 point lead. He has no FH and potentially no Salah (not in his current team)

    Butland
    Bellerin / Moreno / Tomkins
    Sterling / Zaha / Salah (c) / Mane / KDB
    Jesus / Laca

    Long on the bench

  10. Emp
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Who will get more minutes in the run in ? Sane or David Silva?

    1. Samwise the Brave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sane. I'd say Silva will be given more time to spend with his family

      1. camarozz
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        He's ok for this week tho ya reckon??

        1. Samwise the Brave
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Yes, title homecoming and pep will want the core players getting their due. Silva is loved at the club and has had a tough year

  11. Ten Season Wonder
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Butland or Pickford?

    First to 5...GO!

    1. camarozz
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Dubravka

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      depends of rest of your defence i wouldnt double up

      1. Ten Season Wonder
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Baines starting... Bauer first sub

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          butland then

        2. Yank Revolution
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Butland

    3. Garlana
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Butland+ baines maybe

  12. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Captain???

    On Salah but chasing ML leader By 39 pts who has Salah but no FH with only 5 playing so far.

    Could use his wc tho. Hoping he keep it for dgw coz im set up ok for that with a -8 over two weeks

    Would u punt on Sterling, Silva, Jesus?????

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      He will use his WC

      1. camarozz
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        If he does he wont be set up for the blank now and the double tho????

    2. jonasloc
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah. Let your other players be your diff.

    3. Samwise the Brave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Id doubt he'd keep his wildcard with only 5 starters. He'll just stock up on DWers now.
      First question is is your rival likely to drop Salah, (probably not this week)
      Second he'll likely go Jesus on a wildcard
      Assume you are on free hit you have 2 options
      1. Go KDB - unlikely he'll spend that much on city if he keeps Salah
      2. Go zaha - really outside the box but a mid playing up top with a beef with his next opponents and your gap is quite a bit

      Very similar position to myself expect I'm 45 behind and my rival has 5 starters with 2 free transfers but no Salah (I doubt he'll get him back as well)

  13. Garlana
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Chance monreal plays sunday?

    1. Totti
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      50 50

  14. Malkmus
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Shameless repost. Any thoughts on this FH team?

    X (4.0)
    Long - VVD - X
    Salah - Sterling - Zaha - X
    Auba - Jesus - Laca

    Subs - Mili, Kiko, 3.9

    A - Butland, Ota, Arnie (2.0 itb)
    B - Pickford, Sane, Coleman (0.5 itb)

    Ta !

    1. Totti
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

      1. Malkmus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Ta

  15. Will101810
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    I know what wenger said but is anyone still going Aubameyang? I don't understand why wenger would risk injuring Laca and i doubt Auba would be happy with a rest considering his form and that he can only play PL. An injury to laca would be a huge embrassment to the club.

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I'm sticking with Auba

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      i m going ozil safer than laca or auba imo

      1. Will101810
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Isnt Ozil just as prone to rotation if not more so

    3. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Think both will start but Laca will come off after about 60 mins

      1. syke63
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        This. Auba starts on wing goes forward if Welbeck comes on.

    4. noquarternt
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      It is hard to know, any one or two of Auba Laca and Welbeck could play. From what he said, it sounded as though he wants to give the EL team a chance to play together, not just another rest. Could start with Laca and Welbeck and then bring on Auba when one is looking tired? Or start with Auba and take him off on 70 for example. Or of course he could start Auba and Laca and take Laca off for Welbeck...we just don't know

      Auba went from 100% nailed to very likely not getting 90 mins, its about how many mins you think he'll get...most are scared off.

  16. Krafty Werks
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A - Milner & 3.9 fodder.
    or
    B - Kompany & Klavan.

    Thanks.

  17. Totti
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    who do u rather guys?

    1) coleman or baines

    2) lacazette or auba

    3) klavan or moreno

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Baines
      Auba

      I was just about to throw this third Q out there so interested to know answers

      1. Totti
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        auba over lacazette?

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Baines
      Laca for this week
      Moreno

    3. Fantastisk
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Baines
      Auba
      Who cares

  18. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Why no love for d silva? Arguably he has been the most influential players for city lately

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Home vs away.

  19. jonasloc
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Currently only fielding 9 men after FT.

    Pickford
    Mustafi, Otamendi
    Sterling, Salah, Arnautovic, Carroll
    Jesus, Barnes

    Bench/Not playing: Firmino, Mahrez, Azpi, Mee

    Is a -8 hit worth it to field 11 men?
    Options:
    a) Firmino > Auba/Laca (-4)
    b) Firmino + Azpi > Auba/Laca + Dijk(?) (-8)
    c) Mahrez > ...?

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I'd take -4 and get lacazette or do mahrez > zaha/mane

  20. Red Star Toro
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Free hit.

    Pickford(Robles)
    Mustafi-Baines-Moreno(Long, Yedlin)
    Salah(C)-Sane-Mane-Sterling-Zaha
    Laca-Jesus(Crouch)

    g2g?

  21. Sz21
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Do we think Ederson is absolutely nailed to start?

    1. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Probably. Have a backup just in case.

  22. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Am i making a mistake having Silva on my team??

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Check home form v away

  23. woodles
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    anyone tempted by ings?? 5.4 and starting for liverpool

    1. noquarternt
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      He'll do his hamstring after 15 mins.

    2. Samwise the Brave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Was very tempted but decides on zaha instead

    3. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No

  24. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Morning all. Worth getting in Mane or Wood for -8 or anyone else? Using WC next week. Thanks.

    Fabianski
    Lowton - Tomkins - Robertson
    Silva - Salah- **** - ****
    Auba - Jesus (C)

    1. jonasloc
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sterling, Kdb?

  25. Ten Season Wonder
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Klavan or Moreno?

    (Moreno miles more attacking) if starts, he's the better pick no?

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Moreno

  26. burkeyoa
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Willian > Zaha
    Alli > Sane

    Worth a -8 for the above 2 transfers to get 11 starters?

  27. Zilla
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Boring thing is that there are 2 games only tomorrow

  28. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Hello all. Which duo you'd prefer on free hit:

    A) KDB and Klavan
    B) Sane and Van Dijk

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a

    2. Yank Revolution
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  29. hamgrumps
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    On FH
    A) Kompany, VVD, Shaqiri or
    B) Klavan, Long, KDB

    1. syke63
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A by a mile

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A easily

    3. Phil's Stamps
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a

  30. GreatCarragherReef
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) KDB + Moreno
    B) Sane + milner/bellerin

    Guy behind me in my ml has same and no fh, but he is 80 points behind so not too worried

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. GreatCarragherReef
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      *sane