Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    How is Firmino rising tonight and he a no show?

    1. Samwise the Brave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No everyone follows the express. Lots of regular players probably don't know

    2. noquarternt
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Majority of people who play FPL don't come on here

  2. UKG
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Looking for an answer as I can’t find it anywhere. I am on FH, have made my changes and lost near 1m in TV, I know the team defaults back to what it was for next week, but what happens with team value? Doesn’t it go back to what it was as well or have I lost that 1m? (And what if the team I go back to is more money than I have lost unsung FH?)

    Sorry for the questions. Anyone know?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      You'll get your 34 side back, with whatever happened to it value-wise

      1. UKG
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Got it so I’ve lost the TV regardless, fine. It’s not a massive issue now and I want a full squad for this week rafher than holding onto blank players because I have had them most of the season.

        1. Netley Lucas
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          No, I think the value you see is the FH value only. You'll get your 34 squad back with whatever has happened to the 34 squad. See them as 2 things

          1. Pep says
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            I think you've tried hard enough. He'll figure it out after deadline. Makes no difference now anyway

  3. Call Me Old Fashioned
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on this?

    Hennessy
    VVD, Baines, Bellerin
    Sane, Sterling, Zaha, Mane, Salah
    Auba, Jesus

    Speroni, Barnes, Long, Dummet.

    1. Samwise the Brave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Not a fan of Hennessey myself, otherwise looks good

    2. magnet
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sane and Mane won’t play full games

      1. Kevtheotter
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Just 70 mins. I'll take it

      2. Call Me Old Fashioned
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        As long as they play 60 to 70 mins then I am okay with that

  4. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    So Silva at home is a bad idea.??

    That fooks my team up big time. Need another 0.2 to get Sane who im not keen on at all.

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      He's not bad, but if you go by home form he's done better away

      1. syke63
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Wanted to argue the point but he's hopeless at home vs away.

    2. Samwise the Brave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I wouldn't stress for sane (sterling would be different). I doubt there would be any real points gap on the day between sane and Silva to justify a sidewards hit

  5. Mr. O'Connell
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Bench boost team:

    Ederson
    Kompany, Coleman, PVA
    Salah, Mane, Sterling, Zaha, Iwobi
    Wood, Welbeck

    Pickford, Perez, Van Dijk, Bellerin

    1. noquarternt
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Seriously?

    2. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah (c)

    3. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      BB in a 6 game week ey? How did you assemble this team when we had a dgw last week? FH last week?

    4. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      *free hit. Read the chips wrong. Sorry.

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Be a good BB actually 😆

        1. Mr. O'Connell
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Probably better than my triple captain strategy last week

  6. manutd99
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A or B

    A) Cech. Milivo. Perez
    B) Butland Zaha Crouch

    B would mean no arsenal def

    1. Totti
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      will you play perez or crouch? or both would be benched??

      if both would be benched: B then

      1. manutd99
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        both Bench but if crouch doesnt play il have only have one playing on bench as other is 3.9

  7. Kevtheotter
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone have a link or quote to Wenger talking about Laca?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      He was talking about Auba, might not start him etc etc etc

      1. Kevtheotter
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cant find anywhere..

        1. Netley Lucas
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          "I haven't decided that but anyway he can't play on Thursday so I am not sure whether to play him on Sunday,"

          https://www.football.london/west-ham-united-fc/fixtures-results/arsenal-vs-west-ham-latest-14549572

          1. Kevtheotter
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Chees mate!

  8. Totti
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    bench order:

    1) crouch
    2) long
    3) dummett

    1. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wow same as mine. Maybe 2,1,3 then

      1. Totti
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        cheers 😉
        good luck 🙂

    2. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1-2-3
      Put the attacker first

    3. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Snap

  9. Samwise the Brave
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    2nd attempt. Chasing a 45 point lead. He has no FH and potentially no Salah (not in his current team)

    My FH
    Butland
    Bellerin / Moreno / Tomkins
    Sterling / Zaha / Salah (c) / Mane / KDB
    Jesus / Laca

    Long on the bench

  10. Josserz
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Walker & Sterling
    B) Ota & KDB

    Have Jesus.....

    1. Totti
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. Phil's Stamps
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a

  11. Sz21
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Who is the cheapest keeper that is certain to start this GW?

    Thinking of going with Ederson but may need a Plan B just in case..

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Hart 4.2.

      1. TallestJohn
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Didn't Moyes say he has a decision to make after Hart's mistake? Hennessey more secure.

  12. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Hi, prefer Mane or Ozil?

    1. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mane

    2. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mane

  13. RoysCallerAnne
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Bloody brilliant article, bravo.

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      There are articles?

    2. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      It is, but I just don't understand why Everton don't appear in the last graph :/

  14. E25
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on this FH Team with 0.0ITB?

    Butland
    Moreno PVA Baines
    Salah(c) Sterling KDB Mane Zaha
    Laca Jesus

    Nordfeldt Crouch Long Tomkins

  15. VDiesel26
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on FT team? got £2.5m ITB but where to upgrade?

    Butland
    Mustafi Bellerin VVD
    Zaha Shaqiri KDB Sterling Salah
    Laca Jesus

    3.9m Perez Klavan Long

    1. VDiesel26
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Could possibly do Shaqiri to Mane and then downgrade Mustafi to a 3.9 & play Klavan?

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah I would look to use all 3 Liverpool slots

  16. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Hello guys. I think my free hit comes down to following.

    Butland
    PvA, Baines, Klavan
    Salah, Sterling, KDB, Mane, Zaha
    Jesus, Lacazette

    Subs: Mäenpää, Barnes, Long, Goldson

    A) Stick to this, good to go (two playing subs)
    B) PvA and Barnes -> Bellerin and 4.5 fodder striker (one playing sub)

    1. Waltomade
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Is the attack template??I have the same attack??I really need to go differential to catch 80 pts in my league.

      1. T0RR3S
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Ings + Arnie/Shaq Maybe

  17. manutd99
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    How likely will crouch play

  18. Manani
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    is Kane must have for next week?

    thinking of Kane > Jesus this week, but I won't be able to have Kane next week if I do so.

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      If united win, yeah.

    2. lugs
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      on current form no , i'll probably still get him anyway though 🙁

    3. syke63
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      He's got WAT then a double. You should keep him if you care about rank.

  19. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Sorry repost. Who is better choice?

    A. KDB
    B. City def (Kompany or Ota)

    1. Milner
    2. VVD

    X. Zaha
    Y. Mili
    Z Tosun

    Thanks 🙂

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B1X

    2. Waltomade
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A2X

    3. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A and X. Not sure on the other one

    4. jonasloc
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A1X

  20. jonasloc
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    a) Firmino > Auba OR Laca (-4)
    b) Mahrez > Mané OR Zaha OR Shaqiri (-4)
    c) Save my points.

    1. lugs
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

      1. jonasloc
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        who?

  21. Bad Kompany
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on the following fh team?
    Karius
    Bellerin VVD Baines
    KDB Salah Arnie Zaha Gundogan
    Gabriel Jesus Lacazette

    Hennessy Barnes Van Aanholt Long

    .5 itb but can take some off of my bench if needed. Also, who to captain?

    1. manutd99
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      need another big mid.

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers! Downgrade VVD and upgrade Arnie or Zaha to Mane sound good?

  22. Old Wulfrunian
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    My mind says Zaha but my heart says Tosun.Thoughts?

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I’m going Zaha

    2. Kevtheotter
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Newcastle are in great form. Don't concede many. Zaha ceiling is much higher

    3. Old Wulfrunian
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      cheers

  23. Waltomade
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Why no love for Sakho.
    Is a BPS magnet

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      He's good but PvA looks the one

  24. RoysCallerAnne
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Not an RMT, just a peek at perfection.

    Karius
    Bellerin Baines PVA
    Salah Mane Sterling Sane Ozil
    Jesus Lacazette

    3.9 Long Mariappa Niasse

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Might get you a grey arrow 🙂

      1. RoysCallerAnne
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I got one once at 90k OR ish.
        That's mad Ted.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I remember.
          Might copy so I can get one too.

          1. RoysCallerAnne
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            lol
            Nice late season surge. Top work. Another top 10k, you consistent so-and-so.

  25. sirmorbach
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A. Coleman, Sané
    B. Walker, Ramsey

  26. Steve Stiffler
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Chasing ML, all other rivals have played there FH and I am using mines, a lot will be captaining Salah.
    Who should I choose?

    Salah
    Sterling
    Mane
    Jesus
    Laca
    KDB

    1. Sánchez
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      How far behind?
      Do they have a side at all this week?

      1. Steve Stiffler
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I am about 45 behind, and they have 6 max playing atm

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      If Salah hauls and you don’t captain him your season could be over. I’d captain Salah and let the rest of my FH team do the work

      1. Steve Stiffler
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        So annoying I always say I’m going to captain someone different but always revert to Salah, probably safest bet anyways feck it

  27. Sánchez
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Odd question but

    A) Welbeck + fodder mid
    B) Zaha + fodder striker

    1. Steve Stiffler
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  28. Waltomade
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Dubravka

    Coleman Klavan Sakho

    Salah Mane KDB Sterling Zaha

    Laca Jesus

    I made this team without looking at any template.But now it seems everybody has similar teams.
    Is it that template??

  29. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Captain salah or Sterling?

    1. Manani
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      salah

    2. Dazzler365
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah if consolidating, sterling if chasing

  30. Manani
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    who will score more for next 2gw?

    Jesus
    or
    Kane +4

    1. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      35+36? Jesus
      36+37 Kane

      1. Manani
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I am hoping to have both by 37, but one of them will come in only just in time for dgw

    2. L S P
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus

    3. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus