Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. yer old da
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which trio would you prefer?

    A. Tomkins, Mane and Mili
    B. Bellerin, Zaha and Shaqiri?

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  2. T0RR3S
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Arnautovic

    B) Shaqiri

  3. Delph & Safety
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Best Arsenal defender this week?

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Bellerin

  4. Kevtheotter
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any love for Cech?

    Have 0.3 left over and can upgrade

    A) Bultand --> Cech
    B) Long --> Tomkins

    Cheers

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Keep

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B as Mee could be back (though unlikely)

  5. MattSmitty
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Safe to assume Salah has taken Milner's spot kick duties as he's chasing golden boot? Don't understand Milner appeal as a defender if he's not taking pens.

    1. WoodsyOwl
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Milner still playing in midfield and if Salah were to be subbed early then I guess Milner would be back on pens..

    2. tm370
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Well he is playing in midfield. He often takes free kicks and corners. And he has eight assists in the UCL this season.

      But apart from that...

      1. MattSmitty
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers, I supposed I should have added more context to my dilemma as I prefer KDB over Sane but can only do that with Klaven over Milner

    3. Rik Waller
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Playing OOP and always a chance he has pens, especially if Mo is off the pitch by then,

  6. WoodsyOwl
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Milner, KDB and Tosun
    B) Klavan, Sane, Auba

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  7. tm370
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Start Ramsey or Welbeck guys?

    The rest of my attack is:
    Salah, Sterling, Sane, Mane, ____
    Jesus, Tosun, ____

    1. Ghost Gooner
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ramsey

    2. timmmuh
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ramsey

      1. tm370
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers guys

  8. mcrayeps
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Milner + Silva
    B) Klavan + KDB

    A/B more explosive?

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B even better than Milner and Sane imo 🙂

      1. mcrayeps
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks and cheers

  9. I Have No Idea What I'…
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Is Ben Davies to Kompany or Walker worth a -4?

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No

    2. WoodsyOwl
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      What's the injury status on Rose? If Rose is lurking then there's every chance Walker or Kompany repay the hit.

  10. JasonG123
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    FH GTG? 0m ITB

    Hennessey (Speroni)
    Baines Milner Bellerin (Mariappa Long)
    Salah (c) Mane Sterling (VC) KDB Zaha
    Lacazette Jesus (4.5m)

    1. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Good team, and good tv I guess

  11. Delph & Safety
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Butland
    Baines VVD Bellerin
    KDB Sterling Salah Zaha Shaqiri
    Lacazette Jesus

    Hennessy Cresswell Long Tulloch.

    G2G? Ignoring Mane too risky?

    1. yer old da
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I’ve got the exact same side apart from VVD/Moreno (low TV) as I just swapped Mane out. The extra 2.5 or so million from swapping him to Zaha can be put to better use, and Zaha May match him anyway. Good decision.

  12. Ghost Gooner
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Seeing Firmino and Auba rise is scary 😳

    1. Root
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I think it's good. I hope my rivals get both of them.

      1. Ghost Gooner
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        My rival has Firm and I'm sure he has gone Auba. If they start I'm done for

  13. TSN
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Best 4.5 defender until the end of season?

    1. St. Joseph
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Dummet

  14. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which combo?

    A) Ramsey - Butland - Sane

    Or

    B) Zaha - Cech - D.silva

  15. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Kane & Vardy > Firmino & Auba for an 8 point hit? Need to do something to try force some points from somewhere

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      And bring both Kane & Vardy back after this week probably...

      1. Ghost Gooner
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        That's a 12 point hit. I'd reconsider and just do one transfer

    2. FDMS All Starz
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Firmino not in leaked team news

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah that could mess things up allright

    3. Naboo
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Just get crouch. Trust me. Will bag a brace against knackered Burnley with Stoke well up for it!

  16. TLF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A. KDB with only one player available to come off the bench (defender)

    B. Sane with a full bench including back up keeper & Striker up to 6 million.

    Got to be B hasn't it.

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B, but don’t use it all on the bench. Maybe use some of it on your starting 11? What do you need a playing back up gk for?

  17. Jay Jay Okocha
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) KDB, PVA
    B) Sane, Bellerin

    1. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  18. Delph & Safety
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Captains?
    Too dangerous to not back Salah?
    Jesus/Sterling are really tempting imo.

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus for me... hoping Salah finally gets this rest they’ve been threatening, or that he’s taken off early with Europe in mind

    2. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Not too dangerous as he probably isn't going to play full 90 mins

      1. Ghost Gooner
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        He could get 2 goals in 60 though

        1. Delph & Safety
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          That’s the worry if you don’t back him.

    3. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus or Sterling is the question for me. But that is because I’m chasing

    4. St. Joseph
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Leaning towards Salah (C) in the end.
      Goal scoring records and golden boot edges him.

      Man city attack are lottery imo.
      Could easily get 2 points both from jesus / sterling when the goalscorer is Kdb, Silva, and Sane.

  19. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which combo?

    A) D.Silva - Coleman - Cech (already have bellerin)

    Or

    B) Ramsey - Otamendi - Pickford

    1. T0RR3S
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  20. Bad Kompany
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on the following team? On fh. Nothing itb

    Klavan
    VVD Baines Bellerin
    Salah KDB Sterling Zaha Shaqiri
    Gabriel Jesus Laca

    Trott Long Kenny Sterling

    Who to captain?

    1. Delph & Safety
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I’m very tempted by one of the city players.

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers

  21. Rik Waller
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Milner/Sane or Klaven/KDB on FH?

    1. Delph & Safety
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Klavan/KDB because of Kevin’s amazing home form

    2. Gruu
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Why not moreno? Only 0.2 difference with klavan

  22. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    I forgot that West Brom held Liverpool in the reverse fixture at Anfield 0-0 - Foster got 10 points!

    1. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      And WBA knocked them out of the cup

    2. Ghost Gooner
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      They have Salah now

    3. Naboo
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      And beat them 3-2 in the cup. Bogey team with new manager. EVERYONE is forgetting this. Still capping Salah though

      1. Mr_Moore
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Did they have Van Dijk at the time? Liverpool have been better defensively since he came in.

      2. Sun Jihai
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        The scenes on here when Rondón scores

        1. Naboo
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          As long as it's after Milner has scored a pen and come off I'm happy

    4. St. Joseph
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Thats why I'm more interested in doubling liverpool defense + Salah.

  23. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Coleman or baines?

    1. Mr_Moore
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I took Baines because of pens and cheaper. Coleman more likely to get an assist though if you can afford.

    2. Pinky Blinders
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I put both in for my FH in GW31. Yeah it sucked as a strategy. Each got 2 points.

  24. Pinky Blinders
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    has anyone seen actual odds of arsenal winning the Europa League? I haven’t so just asking.

    1. Naboo
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wonder if they've moved since WengerOut?

    2. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      10/3 2nd Fav

  25. yer old da
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A. KDB and Moreno/Klavan

    B. Sane and Milner?

  26. Somar
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone getting Tosun on the FH chip?

    1. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      o/

  27. Z
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    One more time, I cannot decide!

    (a) BUTLAND
    Bellerin, Baines, MORENO
    Salah, Mane, Ozil, Sterling, SANE
    Lacazette, Jesus

    (b) EDERSON
    Bellerin, Baines, VVD
    Salah, Mane, Ozil, Sterling, ZAHA
    Lacazette, Jesus

    1. Mr_Moore
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B. Don't be so sure that Moreno will play. Maybe not. Klopp may go full strength.

  28. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Hi, anyone playing Milner and Laca?
    Fancy both with play?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes & yes

    2. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yep

    3. Somar
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Me

  29. Bad Kompany
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Captain KDB or Sterling?

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sterling out of those two, more explosive

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        KDB actually has more double digit hauls at home than Sterling

    2. Somar
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus the better option than both in my opinion.

    3. Begbie.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sterling IMO. 17 goals and 13 assists are brilliant stats. If it were Sanchez or Hazard we'd be captaining them without thinking twice.

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers

    4. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sterling over KdB. But I’m on Jesus

    5. JohnnyMagrinho
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I’m predicting Sterling to get a double figure score this week.

      • Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Why not Salah?

    6. mitro
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A)Sane and Mustafi or
      B)Shaq and Kompany

      1. Sun Jihai
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Tough but B as I think Shaq is a great differential and Mustafi gets rested