Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. smix
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Moreno expected to start ?

    1. Waynoo
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      yes

    2. Cojones of Destiny
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      since my FH 34 team failed still have TC and BB chips. planning to use BB on gw37 and turn TC on salah for 35 how crazy does that sound ?

  2. JasonG123
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Bottomed. Which combo:
    (A) Milner and Hennessey (also allows two bench players in Mariappa and Long)
    (B) VVD and Butland (only allows one bench player in Long)

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Keepers can do anything so go A

  3. Mysterion
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Boomerang still on pens if Laca is also on the pitch?

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      yes

      1. Mysterion
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        cheers

  4. Boxwoods
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Cap sane or zaha?

    1. Expected Toulouse
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Sane.

  5. barton fc
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    best option ?
    A) Monreal & cech
    B) bellerin butland

    1. Expected Toulouse
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      B. Spread the risk.

  6. Srv210
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    What about Danny Ings for the Mavericks among men ??

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Good to see him starting but 3 pool spots only

  7. Kevtheotter
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Ok I’m done

    G2G?

    Butland
    Bellerin PVA Moreno
    Sterling(c) Mane Sane Salah Zaha
    Lacazette Jesus

    Hennessy Pérez Long Dummett

    Cheers

    1. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Gtg

    2. JasonG123
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I'd be tempted by Baines over PvA by downgrading your bench.

      1. Kevtheotter
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        See below. Also PVA attacking stats are impressive. Baines no so much

    3. Awesomeness
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Same front 7 as me, but I would downgrade Perez to 4.5 fodder and do Butland and PVA to Cech and Baines. But what do I know... 😛

    4. Kevtheotter
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Have money to do Butland to Cech so will probably do that.

      Baines doesn’t appeal to me. Newcastle will score

  8. thisisdiz
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Klavan , TAA, or Robertson?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Gomez, Klavan, VVD, Moreno

      Moreno

    2. thisisdiz
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Thanks all!

  9. ENZO SZN™
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    How is this for slightly differential FH team:

    Pope
    Walker-Coleman-Milner
    Salah(c)-Mane-Sterling-Zaha-Ramsey
    Jesus-Welbeck

    Nordfelt-Deeney-K.Long-Haidara

    1. magnet
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Welbeck is a great choice. Wenger confirm yesterday that those rested for Newcastle will play

    2. Kevtheotter
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Ramsey is a gamble I feel

  10. Weeb Kakashi
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Ozil's minutes this week?

    Considering a Ozil +Laca double up

    1. magnet
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Not sure Laca will play

  11. oscarhs
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Which combo?

    1. Sane, PVA, Baines

    2. KDB, Tomkins, Yedlin

  12. PL Ball
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Who's on Penalties for Everton?

    1. oscarhs
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Baines

      1. Kevtheotter
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Has he taken one since return from
        Injury?

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Was Rooney but missed a couple, maybe Baines or Tosun?

      1. Jairzinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        It's worth noting that he missed a penalty against Swansea. They got another penalty that match. Rooney took it and scored.

        Baines and Tosun were both absent that day, however.

        https://www.premierleague.com/match/22516

    3. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Rooney has taken 4 (scored 3), Baines has taken 2 (scored both).

      1. Jairzinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Correction:

        Rooney has taken 5 (scored 3), Baines has taken 2 (scored both).

        1. Netley Lucas
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          Think he's missed 3

    4. PL Ball
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Damn.

      Very inconclusive then.

  13. minges
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    G2G?

    Pickford
    Milner PVA Lascelles
    Salah Mane Sterling KDB Zaha
    Jesus Laca

    3.9 Barnes Long 3.9

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Personally rather Sane over KDB and Milner won’t be on pens(Salah Golden boot) so probably downgrade to Moreno or VVD

      1. minges
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Good shout thanks

    2. dmcqt
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Looks very solid. I prefer VvD to Milner and I prefer an Arsenal defender over Lascelles or PVA. Nice bench. Your midfield is exactly the same as mine and with Salah (c) I'm hoping it brings in some really big returns.

      1. minges
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Thanks. Yeah here's hoping for a big green arrow for us! Gl

    3. AThousandSuns
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I have got milner as well. He plays in the midfield abd should take corners. Better chance of a return even if they don't keep a cleanie

  14. AnfieldLad
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Pope
    Bellerin Moreno Baines
    Salah(c) Sane Sterling Zaha Mane
    Jesus Aub
    Perez PVA Long

    plzzzzz give advice or just say g2g

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      After Wengers comments would prefer Laca over Auba.

      Pope my be rotated

      1. PL Ball
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Pope rotated?

        1. Jairzinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          From FFS Team News:

          Latest News: Nick Pope continues to be praised by Dyche but was perhaps at fault for the Blues' opening goal on Thursday, so Tom Heaton could be considered for a start at the bet365.

          https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/team-news/

  15. Weeb Kakashi
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Who else is going only with Salah and a Pool defender?

    1. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Salah and 2 pool defenders probably.

      1. Colonial
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Mane, Salah and Klavan for me

        1. sunzip14
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          This

      2. Weeb Kakashi
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Interesting.

        Can i see your team?

    2. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      lol only Robertson for me as I’m not on FH

      1. si
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Sounds like he isn’t starting either I am afraid.

    3. HNI
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I am even benching pool defender as Jrod has been in great form. If wba can get past manutd and score 3 vs Liv at anfield just 3 months back dont think cleansheet chance is strong.

  16. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    No love for David Silva around here?

    1. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Ive got him

    2. minges
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Love him but can be in/out of the squad at any time for non football reasons makes him risky

    3. Johnny Leghorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Shhh. Don't tell everyone!

  17. sunzip14
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Gtg? 0.0itb

    Ederson
    Baines, mustafi, klavan
    Salah, sterling, ozil, mane, zaha
    Jesus, Laca
    3.9, barnes, lowton, mbemba

    1. sunzip14
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Jesus (C)

    2. HNI
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Be read for 60-70mins of Mane only. Rest is great.

    3. birdnose
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Think i’d go pickford and otamendi over ederson and baines. Same price as a duo

  18. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Captain Jesus or sterling, and why? Currently have it on sterling, but unsure

    Replies appreciated!

    1. si
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      As it is so close, Sterling due to CS potential point and extra point per goal.
      Jesus losing penalties also a factor.

  19. minges
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Anyone considering a front three of

    Jesus Laca Aub

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Think I'd rather plough the Auba cash into certain starters

    2. hurrrrr
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Yes. Considering it very very strongly.

      Just can't work out who to drop from my midfield.

    3. HNI
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Putting auba cash in sure starter Ozil and Bellerin. Big differentials

  20. dee_top
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Pick one for FH:
    A) PvA
    B) Bellerin
    C) Mustafi

    1. Whats the Mata?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      B

  21. oscarhs
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    G2G?

    Butland
    Moreno - Tomkins - Bellerin
    Salah - Mane - Zaha - Sane - Sterling
    Laca - Jesus

    3.9 Crouch Long 3.9

    0.3 ITB

    1. HNI
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      If its fh then you have to remove tomkins for eve cover

  22. AnfieldLad
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    1) Will Aub start?
    2) Best GK this week?

    1. oscarhs
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      1) Wenger said he is unsure if Aub will start, could start on the left with Laca up top, or come on as a sub for 30 mins or so
      2) Butland

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Wenger wasn't sure
      Hennessey

  23. *Unrial
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    pickford or karius?

  24. Buck The Trent
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    If money no issue, Ozil or Zaha ?

    1. *Unrial
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      zaha

  25. Vlekz
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Please help. Is it gtg?
      Ederson
      vvd bellerin Baines
      Salah(c) sterling(vc) Ozil Zaha Shaqiri
      Jesus laca
      3.9 | klavan long niasse
      0.0 ITB

    • joersherman
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      A) KDB & Moreno
      B) Silva/Sane & Milner

      On FH - cheers guys

    • eskild
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Bellerin expected to start the remaining games?
      Need a permanent replacement for Christensen

      1. Get up ya bum
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        No

    • Winners900
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Thoughts on Ramsey? Will he start?

      "on Ramsey and the cut on his leg…
      He has not participated in full training but he’s practising in non-contact, so he will be available for Sunday."

      1. Aubaaaaa
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        I think Ramsey will come on as sub.

    • Aubaaaaa
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Who do you think will start for Arsenal?
      A. Welbeck
      B. Ozil
      C. Laca
      D. Auba

      Could be all 4 starting?

      1. Get up ya bum
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        A b d

    • john25
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Hey guys, who has a better chance of starting between Laca and Aubameyang? Really can't decide which one to pick for FH.

      Cheers

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Scout Picks say Laca.