Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Teahupo'o
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    On FH. G2G?

    Hennessey
    Monreal Milner Baines
    Ozil Mane Salah Sane Silva
    Lazazette Jesus

    (3.9, Perez Long 3.9)

    1. Teahupo'o
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Should read Sterling instead of Sane.

  2. Mini Mane Mo
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Gomez or Moreno?

    1. Teahupo'o
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Moreno

    2. Werkself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Coin toss.

  3. lasmons
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Hennessey
    Monreal - Robertson - Lowton
    Salah(C) - Sterling - Arnie - Gudmundsson
    Jesus - Auba - Barnes

    DDG* - Willian* - Morgan* - Smalling*

    Good to go? Managed this team for a -8.
    With all the rotations risks. Anything else worth another hit?

    1. Sailboats
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      robertson not playing

      1. lasmons
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Saw that. Hoping for a cameo I guess. Worth a hit to switch him with a playing def?

  4. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    On 9 players after -4 this gw. Worth doing hazard > salah for -8?

    1. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Only if u going to capt him

      1. SpaceCadet
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Going with kdb as a diff

  5. Valar(Keith)
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Butland
    Bellerin Milner Baines
    Kdb Salah Sterling Zaha Shaqiri
    Jesus Lacazette
    3.9 Klavan Barnes Long

    All set for my FH?

    1. zøphar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      looks good i dont see an everton cs personally id rather get monreal over baines

      1. Burger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Can't see Arsenal getting a cleanie so basically which get more attacking retirns, surely Baines due to pens in this case?

  6. THFC4LIFE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Who to get for the rest of the season? Bench boost in gw37

    A. Zaha and Kenedy
    B. Arnie and Mili

    1. Sailboats
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  7. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Do we know any Arsenal player that is nailed to play in the league games besides Auba who apparently isn't now?

    1. FPL Fanatic
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ramsey could be a great differential

  8. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    thoughts? which combo...27.7m for 4 spots

    Butland • Pereira
    Baines • XXX • XXX • Long • Mbemba
    Salah • Sterling • Sane • XXX • XXX
    Jesus • Laca • Campbell

    A: VVD + Bellerin + Zaha + Ozil
    B: VVD + Mustafi + Zaha (or Ramsey) + Mane
    C: Moreno + Tomkins + Mane

    1. LewanGOALski
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Up the tics
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  9. AC Tomasso
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which is best? A) Mane + Sane/Silva OR
    B)De Bruyne + Zaha/Shaquiri?

    1. LewanGOALski
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

      1. AC Tomasso
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thx. Anyone think Mane will start though?

  10. Winners900
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    on bench this week

    A) Diouf
    B) Barnes

    Cheers

    1. LewanGOALski
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  11. Slitherene
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Who is the better choice to TC this GW?

    Salah away at WBA
    Sterling home against SWA

    I also have Jesus.

    1. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Why is there a need to use it this GW

      1. Slitherene
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        WC in 36, BB in 37

        Should I wait for 38?

        1. Mini Mane Mo
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I’ll wait for Salah in 38

    2. FPL Fanatic
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah if ur leading, Sterling/Jesus if ur chasing

    3. SUPER 11
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah

    4. SkeletONv01
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wait for DGW37?

      1. Slitherene
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        BB 37

      2. SkeletONv01
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        But yeah, if using BB in 37, i would wait with the TC for another GW.

  12. SUPER 11
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Karius
    Ota VVD Coleman
    Salah(C) Gundogan Zaha Richarlison Mane
    Jesus Tosun

    Reserve:- Lloris, Kane, B.Davies, Smalling

    Should i transfer out Richarlison for Shaqiri?

    1. FPL Fanatic
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

  13. THFC4LIFE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Adrian likely to start?

  14. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which defender do we think is most nailed for the remainder of the season from this lot and best option?

    A Kompany
    B Monreal
    C Walker
    D Mustafi
    E Otamendi
    F Bellerin

    1. KeepCalm
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Kompany (if fit) and Mustafi

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Why not the more attacking Bellerin or Monreal over Mustafi?

        1. KeepCalm
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Rotation due to Europa and DGW

    2. SUPER 11
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ota

  15. Teahupo'o
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which combo?

    A) KDB & Zaha
    B) Silva & Ozil

    1. AC Tomasso
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Think Ozil hasn't played last couple of games though?

      1. Teahupo'o
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah, would be a gamble but some players might use the match to get game-ready for Thursday.

  16. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    BBing in 37 and a little clueless. Weighing up my moves now. 1FT and 0.1M

    Ederson Fabianski
    Alonso Mustafi Dummetty Robbo Fernandez
    Mahrez Sane Hughes Salah Kenedy
    Kane Auba Austin

    No defender i see worth buying. Don't see a way to Jesus except Auba. If i can do Austin to Jesus somehow, it'll be great. Maybe Mahrez to Sterling and Alonso to defender?

    1. Urchin
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I am planning to Mahrez once my FH reverts after this GW, very disappointing he has been. DGW is appealing but not sure about his personal form and motivation.
      Downgrading Alonso can work for Asutin to Jesus move

  17. I AM GROOT!!!
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    can someone post a link to the leaked liverpool lineup? I looked through the pages but unable to find it.

    1. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Search for Anfield Express in twitter

  18. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Klopp said he’ll field A really strong team. He didn’t mention that Firmino was A rest or would be benched.

    Find it hard to believe AnfieldExpress this time.

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      *was injured

    2. AC Tomasso
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Thx for info. I have Mane and Salah at the mo on free hit but am still a little unsure.

    3. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      It’s still a strong team

  19. mogadishu
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Kompany gonna play we reckon?

    1. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Think yeah.

    2. Werkself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Safe bet.

  20. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Is Ramsey expected to start against whu?

    1. George James
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I would say yes. But reduced mins IMO. He is vital for the semi

      1. SpaceCadet
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Better differential iyo? Mane or ramsey? Thanks

  21. George James
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone wonder why the Liverpool predicted team on this site is exact same line up as AE but has Firmino starting instead of Ings? Weird.

    1. A.T
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Perhaps they don't trust AE

      1. George James
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Not sure about that. Few days ago it was totally different with TAA, Robertson in and now the back line and midfield has been updated to mirror the AE team however firmino still in.

        1. A.T
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          If it was a few days ago wouldn't it have been last week's team? I don't think they keep updating it as the week goes on. I don't know. AE has been wrong before so it wouldn't surprise me if they do their own thing.

    2. Werkself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      AE team released after scout picks.

      1. George James
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yes I know but team news on this site changes and gets updated

      2. Burger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        No AE was released earlier.

  22. Stimps
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Bellerin, Ozil
    B) Monreal, Mane

    Have Laca, Moreno, Salah

  23. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Team for tomorrow via Arsenal express in Twitter lol

    Cech
    Bellerin
    Mustafi
    Koscielny
    Monreal
    Wilshere
    Xhaka
    Ozil
    Ramsey
    Lacazette
    Aubameyang

    1. si
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Serious?

      1. Scotty B
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah check twitter

        1. Sailboats
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          link their twitter

          1. Scotty B
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Take a look at @ArseExpress's Tweet: https://twitter.com/ArseExpress/status/987447813964550150?s=09

      2. Urchin
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        There is a LOL at the end of first sentence 🙂

        1. Scotty B
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Fund it amusing that they are copying Anfield Express

          1. Urchin
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            🙂

  24. AC Tomasso
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Silva scored 16pts in last away Swansea fixture. Him over Sane?

  25. Moses _H
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Salah must be on pens from now on chasing the record and golden boot

    1. si
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      He is anyway?

  26. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    I assume free hitters who have Alonso are keeping him for 37?

    1. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Nope. Plan was to get rid of him for someone else and upgrade Barnes. It still is.

  27. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Really wish Kompany was nailed to play these last games...woukd get him in a heartbeat at that price as he always gets a goal in those celebratory type games

  28. Urchin
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Second attempt, how is this updated FH team now?

    Pickford
    Kompany Moreno Coleman
    Salah Sterling Zaha Ozil
    Auba Tosun Jesus

    3.9 Iwobi Dummett Long

    Is Ritchie an option in place of Iwobi?

    1. Scotty B
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Kompany nailed?

      1. Urchin
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Oh, I thought so.

        1. Scotty B
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I might get him if he is

      2. 32chickens
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        wild horses would not stop the captain leading his team out this weekend

        1. Urchin
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I just did Kompany to Walker, should I revert? or Walker also good pick?

  29. Sid07
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    On FH

    Butland
    Baines bellerin klavan
    Salah(c) sterling mane sane zaha
    Laca jesus

    Nord Barnes long mirappa

    Gtg??

    0.0itb

  30. DrunkPhilosophy
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    If on a budget due to low SV, KdB isn’t an option, who would you go for as third city attacker?

    A) Silva
    B) Sane

    1. Park the bus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sane more explosive, Silva moree consistent

    2. Urchin
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sane, more goal threat IMO

      1. AC Tomasso
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Which is more guaranteed to play though?

    3. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b
      suspect this w/e will be dilvas last match this season