Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Connor's Calling
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Mane & Sane
    OR
    KDB & Shaq

    1. Feloh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      sane

      kdb

      1. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        He asked which pair would you choose.

    2. Park the bus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      free hit? A
      no free hit? B

      1. Connor's Calling
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks both

    3. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    4. istanbul05
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    5. Surfreak
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Kdb shaq

  2. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Benching order GTG?

    Long, Crouch, Dummett.

    Thanks.

    1. Park the bus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      yup

    2. Urchin
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Crouch ahead of Long, always a goal in him

    3. Adams6
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      The best dancer should go first

  3. Urchin
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    On FH
    A. Kompany
    B. Walker

    As first sub:
    1. Iwobi
    2. Ritchie

    Thanks!!

    1. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b1

    2. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a2

    3. Up the tics
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A2

  4. istanbul05
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Good to go guys?

    Dubravka
    Monreal, Baines, Moreno,
    Salah, Mane, KDB, Sterling, Zaha,
    Laca, Jesus.

  5. rdamjan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Best defender for max 6.0 for this week only?

    A. Baines
    B. Bellerin
    C. ______

    1. St. Joseph
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Milner / vvd / ota

    2. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Milner is popular

    3. Urchin
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Kompany?
      see above my dilemma

    4. Surfreak
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Bellerin (threat) or Van Djik

  6. Surfreak
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Morning all (UK)
    If you were chasing who would you captain this GW?
    Salah
    Jesus
    D Silva
    Thanks

    1. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      dilva

  7. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Final decision:
    A) Mili and Ozil
    B) Zaha and Ramsey

    1. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b

    2. Surfreak
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A if leading
      B if chasing
      Good luck

    3. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Thanks both

  8. Sid07
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Repost
    On FH

    Butland
    Baines bellerin klavan
    Salah(c) sterling mane sane zaha
    Laca jesus
    (Nord Barnes long mirappa)

    Gtg??

  9. pjanns
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Is everything good here? Or any late suggestions??

    Pickford
    Chambers - Baines - Yedlin
    D. Silva - Salah - Mane - Sterling
    Lacazette - Jesus - Aubemayang
    (Elliot - Mili - Mbemba -Goldson )

    0,0 ITB

  10. Eze Really?
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any news from Anfield express?

    1. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      get twitter

    2. Reuser
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Karius, Gomez, Van Dijk, Klavan, Moreno, Henderson, Milner, Wijnaldum, Salah, Mane, Ings.

    3. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      They leaked the lineup yesterday. Check their Twitter

    4. Punty McPuntface
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Hehe this reminds me of when 'ask jeeves' used to exist

  11. Johnny too hotty
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    No fh crew.
    Lukaka willian and smalling to jesus sterling walker ?

    1. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      yes

    2. Park the bus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      wouldnt sell Smalling for a big hit at this point

    3. ZeBestee
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Keep Smalling

  12. Park the bus
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    bottomed on last page:

    circumstances this season mean I am wildcarding late, did FH 31, team was well placed for 32 to 34 but shambles for 35. trying to balance a decent team for this week with plenty doubles for BB in 37. how's it looking?

    Ederson Fabianski
    Lowton Smalling Chilwell Dummett Gomez/Tomkins
    Sterling Salah Zaha Kenedy Eriksen
    Auba Jesus Barnes

    Then do Auba to Kane next week and 2 of Barnes/Zaha/Gomez to DGWers in 37. Gives 11 probable starters this week and likely 12 out of 15 DGWers for GW 37

    thoughts?

  13. Swagat
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Reposting FH Team

    Butland
    Baines PvA Moreno
    KDB Salah(c) Mane Sterling Zaha
    Lacazatte Jesus

    3.9,Perez,Dummet, Long

    Anything to improve? Nothing in Bank

  14. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Foster
    TAA Lowton Baines
    Walcott Shaqiri Sterling
    Barnes Jesus Aubamayang

    Elliot Eriksen Alonso Lingard Ake

    Which option looks better?
    All leave me with enough ITB to get Kane in next week.for Auba

    A Eriksen > KDB
    B Alonso > Walker
    C Alonso > Otamendi
    D Ake > Kompany

  15. Warblers
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Why no love for VVD this week?

    1. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Want to know that too

    2. Hulk Smash
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      If you don't think he'll score then better to get Klavan and save 1.6m

  16. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed - Once and for all:

    1
    A Milner B Moreno

    2
    A arnie B shaquiri

    3
    A auba B Lacazette

    On free hit of course

    1. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      abb

  17. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    On a FH,

    A: VVD + Mustafi + only 1 starter from bench
    B: Klavan/Moreno + Bellerin + remaining funds allow for playing bench

    1. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Maybe you wont need those bench players

      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        yes possibly not...

        it just a question of finding a way to get bellerin.

  18. La Vida Latte
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    I think Man City will play very attacking today since they already won and want to give the supporters a good show. I think they will score many goals and not keep a clean sheet. Captain Jesus for me.

    Agree? Disagree?

    1. DantheManinaPan
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Agree with most of what you say, but I'm still gonna cap Salah

      1. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        o/

      2. La Vida Latte
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah, it is tempting. Since he is chasing records. Bit i am worried about limited game time.

    2. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      dilva

    3. Jonny Sutt
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Agree, Liverpool will draw 1-1 today. I'm going sterling.

      1. La Vida Latte
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Sterling is tempting too.

  19. DantheManinaPan
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    OK, time for my first proper RMFHT. Not really done much research and kind of flung the players together in a hurry, so let me know if I'm missing something obvious! (I'm willing to risk Firmino)

    Cech
    Kompany, Baines, Tomkins
    Salah, Mane, Sane, Zaha
    Lacazette, Jesus, Firmino

    (cheapie, RLC, Long, cheapie)

    Thanks!

    1. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Firmino wont start (AnfieldExpress)

    2. KeepCalm
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Auba instead of Firmino
      Klavan instead of Tomkins

  20. Yogi_mike
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Butland
    Baines Moreno Kompany
    Salah Sane Ozil Zaha Mane
    Jesus Laca
    3.9 Tomkins Crouch whimmer

    Sane or Dilva?
    Dilva would upgrade Moreno to VVD

    1. DantheManinaPan
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Looks sound to me as is

    2. FPL Fanatic
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Super team, good luck mate 🙂

  21. Teahupo'o
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Think I've settled on this. G2G?

    Hennessey
    Bellerin Milner Baines
    Mane Salah KDB Sterling Zaha
    Lazazette Jesus

    (3.9, Perez Long 4.0)

  22. Red Dagger ✪
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Captain who..?
    A. Jesus.
    B. Salah.
    C. Sterling.
    D. KDB.
    E. Auba.

    Thanks for the help as always....

    1. DantheManinaPan
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B, as always

    2. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Im on Salah currently

    3. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ok fine if not Salah then who?

      1. Teahupo'o
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A if not Salah.

    4. Jonny Sutt
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Raheem

  23. Legomané
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Moreno or Klavan?

  24. Weeb Kakashi
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Newcastle defence largely overlooked.
    Defensively way better than Everton.

    1. Teahupo'o
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I think most are hoping for Baines/Coleman attacking returns.

    2. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      shush

  25. ☆Khaz
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Whats the most nailed budget LIV defender this gw?

    1. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      karius

    2. WVA
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Klavan
      Moreno

    3. FPL Fanatic
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Klavan (Anfield express via twitter)

  26. Legomané
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    ‪Any thoughts on this FH squad (0.2 ITB) - I'm reluctant to lose Auba as my chasing rival will probably hold him...Mili good bench cover 🙂 cheers ‬

    Dubravka
    Klavan Tomkins Lowton
    Salah Mané Sterling Sané
    Jesus Lacazette Aubameyang

    (3.9 Milivojevic Long Dummet)

  27. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A Milner ederson shaquiri
    B Moreno butland sane

    (Already have Jesus and sterling)

  28. Punty McPuntface
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    So the most important question of today...
    Who are you sticking the arm band on?

    1. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      dilva

  29. Gothenburgsaints
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Assuming Anfield Express is right and they all start - who do I pick (money no issue):

    1. Gomez
    2. Moreno
    3. Klavan

    Thanks!

    1. 32chickens
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      moreno -biggest goal/ass threat

      1. Gothenburgsaints
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks. Needed some help as do not know much about these defenders.

    2. KeepCalm
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Milner could also be gold..

      1. Gothenburgsaints
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yes, but there money is an issue 🙂 Would mean going Sane over KdB to raise funds and not sure about that.

  30. WVA
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any changes?

    Cech
    Walker Milner Baines
    Salah Mane Sterling Zaha Shaqiri
    Lacazette Jesus
    3.9 Barnes Long 3.9