Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
Share:

In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Fungus le BooYaMen
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Lots of tinkering....but think I've nailed it for my budget?

    Cech
    Van Dijk, Van Aanholt, Baines
    Salah, Mané, De Bruyne, Sterling, Zaha,
    Lacazette, Jesus

    Subs, GK 3.9m, DEF 3.9m, Long, Crouch

    1. DantheManinaPan
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Extremely similar to my current draft (which is very different from the one I posted like a page ago XD) except I can only afford Sane where you have KDB

    2. ZeBestee
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Best defender for the rest of the season

      1) Lejuene
      2) Moreno

    3. Takedog1
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      no hald decent bench would worry me. cech defo nailed? great team otherwise.

      1. Fungus le BooYaMen
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Havent even considered Cech not being nailed....you think Ospina might get the start for form going into Europa?

  2. pjanns
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Got bottomed. 🙁

    Pickford
    Klavan - Chambers - Baines
    Sane - Salah - Sterling - Mane
    Lacazatte - Jesus - Aubameyang

    (Nordfeldt - Milivojevic - Yedlin - Mbemba)

    0,0 ITB

    gtg, right?

    1. SalahFingers
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Yes GTG

    2. Takedog1
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      auba and laca is a no for me

    3. vityovics
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Laca + Auba together? Nice one
      G2G

  3. David Bowie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Good morning all:

    2 options:

    A) de Broyne & Klavan

    B) silva/ sane & Van Dijk

    Any thoughts will be appreciated

    1. DT42
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      A.

  4. DT42
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Which one to bench from;
    A. Baines
    B. Klavan
    C. Long
    D. Bellerin

    1. Dave Bauer
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      C

    2. GazPage
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Klaven. Brom will score

    3. GazPage
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Actually i agree, bench long. Stoke only need a win to get within 2

  5. Assisting the assister
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Is Welbeck a good option?

    1. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Read that again slowly.

    2. el polako
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      As daft as it sounds he might be.
      He is a regular in EL and taking Wengers comments about West Ham game being rehersal he should start. Even more so beacause he didnt played much lately in PL.
      He is also capable of double digit hauls, please dont ask ,e how this is possible.

      1. Sedemuda
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        I agree he's a good punt with the Auba/Laca uncertainty.
        Rested last game & scored well the previous week.

    3. Assisting the assister
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Well I'd play him up top with Laca and Jesus - rather than go for Perez or Barnes. It's a punt. Bit like choosing Gundog - a punt that could go easily pay off

  6. John Nerdelbaum
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Probably a bit bonkers but with Robbo not in the leaked line up what about this for a hit - Mahrez and Robbo > Silva and Lejeune. Rules out Jesus though

    Eggs in a Rafa defensive basket! Only worry would be they could take their foot off the gas with safety pretty much secured

    Would leave me with

    Ederson
    Mustafi Lejeune Dummett
    Salah Sterling Silva Hughes Kenedy
    Auba Barnes

    Fab/VdH/Alonso/Kane 1.7m ITB

    1. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Yeah, team looks good for this week.

      Do you have the link to the leaked Pool team?

      1. Midlands Saint73
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Anfield express on Twitter

    2. chilli con kone
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      What's the leaked line up John?

      1. Red Dagger ✪
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        No Firms basically.

        1. kysersosa
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          Yeah, wow thanks. Will take him out my FH team!

        2. Fred54
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          No Robbo either.

  7. GazPage
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    My team pf 9. No free hit, only triple captain for GW37.

    Im currently 90 k overall.

    Henessy

    Baines, Ward, Robertson

    Sterling (c), Salah

    Barnes, Firmino, Auberyang

    9 total. Is this OK? ive been without wildcard so ive beeb building a team to hit hard in gameweek 37. Then ill have kane, pogba at least. Triple captain kane. Im 27 points ahead in our mini league. Already 4 point hit for sterling which is why i captained him

  8. The Overthinker
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Final FH Draft

    Pickford
    Gomez walker Bellarin
    Sterling Salah Zaha milivojevic Ramsey
    Aubameyang Jesus

    Pope Wood Lowton Long

    1. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      *Tomkins instead of long

  9. lilmessipran
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Money no bar, who would you rather have
    A mane
    B kdb

    1. InvertedWinger
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Mane

    2. Root
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      KDB

    3. SalahFingers
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      KDB... double.

    4. DantheManinaPan
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Mane

      1. DantheManinaPan
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        But would still want 3 City attackers (or at least 3 players)

  10. InvertedWinger
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Pickford Vs Pope on a FH this week, talk to me?

    1. Fungus le BooYaMen
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I got spooked on Pope because of the possibility of Heaton possibly playing.

      1. Zladan
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Get Heaton as he backup?

  11. Punty McPuntface
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Sterling or salah for the captaincy?

    Personally I hate an early kick off!

    1. InvertedWinger
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Salah is the greatest fantasy asset that ever lived and is immune to every kind of kick off curse.

    2. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Going sterling

  12. Sponge-worthy
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Can I confirm the transfers on a FH and then make more transfers after?

    1. Teahupo'o
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Yes.

      1. Sponge-worthy
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Thanks, I did it and I see you weren't lying.

        1. Teahupo'o
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          😀

  13. Ibralicious
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Sane or Silva looking more like a sure-shot scoring option this GW?

  14. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    on a FH, which combo looks best:

    A: VVD + Mustafi + Zaha
    B: VVD + Bellerin + Shaqiri
    C: Milner + Bellerin + Shaqiri

    1. thomashl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Milner and Shaq could be nice punts. Would want Zaha, though

      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        its a tough one...

        I think Milner and Bellerin are better then vvd and mustafi...so is that enough to downgrade zaha >> shaqiri

    2. El Muñeco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I’m going with the Milner option

  15. thomashl
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Bellerin or Monreal on my FH?

    1. El Muñeco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I probably think both will playb

  16. Mondeo
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Lingard > Shaqiri for -4?

    Have 9 players this GW so far (no FH)

    1. thomashl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      could be worth it!

      1. Mondeo
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        cheers!

    2. BAMBAA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Yes

      1. Mondeo
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        cheers mate!

  17. Whats the Huth
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    I agree with this article.
    I used free hit last week in GW34.
    Didn't work. The bench boost was the best chip.

    This week. I'm using no chips. I think the free hitters will pull even more away from me.

    Looks like the free hit chips Ian best used for blank game weeks rather than doubles

    1. FPLzebub
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      That's kind of what most people thought when it came out. I still think it depends on the fixtures. Next season it might work in the doubles but this GW looks great for the FH.

  18. Jaok
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Gtg?
    Pope
    Bellerin baines klavan
    Mane salah(c) kdb sterling zaha
    Laca jesus

    Perez long 4.0 4.0

  19. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    A) Alonso Austin Mahrez -> Vert Ritchie Jesus
    B) Alonso Austin Mahrez -> Lejune Zaha/Arnie Jesus
    c) Mahrez + Austin -> Sterling + Ayew (keep alonso)

    1. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      C

    2. John Nerdelbaum
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      i think c and keep alonso, lr

  20. Red Dagger ✪
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Sterling, Jesus or KDB as captain?

    1. El Muñeco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Depends how safe you want to go. I like Jesus

      1. Red Dagger ✪
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Not wanting to go safe. Chasing....

    2. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Kdb
      Sterling
      Jesus

  21. El Muñeco
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    On FH, which option:

    A) Otamendi and Mane or
    B) Baines and KdB?

    1. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      B

    2. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      A probably although I like Mane and KDB....

  22. Champions united
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Any change req or m i GTG??

    Vvd tomkins lowton
    Salah mane sterling kdb zaga
    Laca jesus

  23. Cojiro
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Any more hits needed? -4 So far

    Lowton, Tarkowski, Robertson
    Salah, Sterling
    Barnes, Jesus (c)

  24. Sponge-worthy
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Play Barnes or Mili?

    1. Sangano
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Barnes

    2. El Muñeco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Prob Milivojevic

  25. @NF_Janner
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Really not sure what to do with the laca /auba situation!!

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Auba

  26. pjanns
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Who should I chose:

    A: Zaha

    B: Aubameyang

    1. Sangano
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      A

  27. Demel
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Is Alonso back in time for the double game week?

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      yes

    2. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      And we'll rested he will be too

  28. Union_Jacks
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Fabs, Mustafi, tark, Lowton, dummett, sterling (c), Salah, Jesus, Firmino, Barnes -8

    This okay for a non freehit team?

  29. Whats the Huth
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Lack of sane in these free hit teams!!??
    Why?

    1. Blame it on Traore
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Will he start?

      1. Whats the Huth
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        I expect he starts. Pep will play his strongest team

    2. Assisting the assister
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      I've got him in - many are going KDB

    3. Sedemuda
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Not great returns lately, Sterling & DSilva have picked up plenty of points recently.

  30. The Overthinker
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Start wood or milivojevic?

    1. BAMBAA
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Who are the others in the bench?

      1. BAMBAA
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Mili from these if no better option.