Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. RocketRonnie
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Free hit
    A Kompany Tomkins Ozil
    B Keane pva sane

    Butland
    Kompany Tomkins klavan
    Salah mane sterling zaha Ozil
    Jesus laca

    Bench crouch long fodder fodder

    1. Phil's Stamps
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a

  2. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Once and for all:

    A lacazette
    B Auba

    1. magnet
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Welbeck

    2. Takedog1
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a

  3. Lone Wolf FPL
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Ozil or Sane?

  4. redbeard
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Goalman or Gaines

    1. Totalfootball
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Goalman

  5. FCSB
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    No FH...

    Hennessey
    Mustafi Kiko Lowton
    Sterling Mili Salah
    Jesus Barnes

    Currently got 9 players for GW35...

    Is anyone worth a (-4) hit or am I GTG??

    Thanks.

    1. Cojiro
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      G2g

  6. arndff_
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Milner Bellerin Shaqiri
    B) VvD Mustafi Zaha

    1. Phil's Stamps
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b

    2. Totalfootball
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A with Vvd

  7. SalahFingers
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Monreal or Baines on WC? (not FH).

  8. Takedog1
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    PLEASE RMFHT

    Hennessey

    milner - bellerin - baines

    zaha - salah - sane - sterling(c) - mane

    laca - jesus

    subs - 3.9 keeper - long - mariapa - tuloch

    1. Teror
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      8.5 / 10

      I don't like Lacazette. Not sure about Bellering but could work out. Poor bench and Hennessey. All good otherwise. Good luck.

    2. magnet
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Not Laca

  9. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    So final decision:-

    A Alonso > Otamendi or Walker
    B Ake > Kompany

    Which one would you go with guys?

    1. Cojiro
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Phil's Stamps
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b

    3. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    4. Scotty B
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      All 3 of you say to get Kompany hey.
      Surprised at that

    5. BAMBAA
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Walker

  10. Cojiro
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    More hits needed? -4 So far

    Lowton, Tarkowski, Robertson
    Salah, Sterling
    Barnes, Jesus (c)

    1. drughi
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      yeah I would take one or two more hits

      1. Cojiro
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks

  11. ZeBestee
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Best defender to have for rest of season:

    1) Lejuene
    2) Moreno

    1. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      two

  12. Totalfootball
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Even though Welbeck should play tom(over Auba/Laca etc ) , i am not able to put him in..
    :/

    1. redbeard
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Same, got no cojones. Dat guy is gonna smash it today

  13. Christina.
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Butland over Pickford? (Own Baines)

    1. arndff_
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      butland

    2. Teror
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      D.Silva

    3. Werkself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Butland

  14. Squib
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Can field 10 so what hit should I do?
    Thinking Mahrez to Sterling.

    Pickford
    Ota Hegazi Robertsn Lowton
    Carroll Doucoure Salah
    Barnes Auba
    Bench:
    Kane
    Mahrez
    Pogba
    Martina
    De Gea

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I count 9 players.

      Gtg

    2. Totalfootball
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mahrez to Sterling
      Pogba to a 2nd City mid..like Sane etc

      Can also do Auba to Jesus
      You will want Jesus anyway till end...

      1. Squib
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I am 2 pponts behind ML leader. Do I need an 8 point hit? Will Auba start?

  15. arndff_
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    G2G?

    Butland
    VvD Baines Mustafi
    KdB Salah(c) Mane Sterling Zaha
    Laca Jesus

    3.9 Long 4.5 3.9

    0.1 ITB

    1. ZeBestee
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Good team. Template 🙂 Good luck mate

      1. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yes, it’s a template stuff.

        Thanks! You too 🙂

    2. Pariße
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      How sure are you of Laca starting?

      1. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        95%

        1. Pariße
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Good

    3. Teror
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Gone with KdB and Laca in the end? I went with Auba & D.Silva. Risk versus reason. Looking good, though.

  16. Werkself
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    FH Team - Which best fills in the blanks?
    1) Milner, PVA, Sané
    or
    2) Klavan, Otamendi, Ozil

    Butland
    Bellerin, ________, __________
    Zaha, Salah (c), Mané, Sterling, __________
    Jesus, Laca

    3.9 GK, Perez, Long, Femenia

    1. CAN'T STOP THE ZLATAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      2

      1. Werkself
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks.

  17. ZeBestee
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any change on the Pool leaked lineup?

    1. #Swish41
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Had it yesterday

  18. vityovics
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Arnie or Zaha??

    Maybe Zaha is a little bit better, but isnt it very likely that Palace will be satisfied with 0-1/3pts and ARS-WHU will go crazy 4-2,5-3 etc..?

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Zaha is a bad decision imo

    2. Assisting the assister
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah I'm playing Welbeck over Zaha as a punt on a big score at Arsenal

    3. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Why would you think Arsenal-WH will be crazy? I’m a supporter and I can’t remember a crazy game like that against West Ham. I don’t think Arnie played outright attack last game and Carroll might take the central spot and West Ham don’t really have much to play for, Arsenal are focused on Thursday.

      Palace have everything to play for, Zaha is in good form, Watford are on the beach and have conceded the most goals at home on the league I think.

      1. vityovics
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I dont know just a bad feeling, Wenger farewell etc.. and ML leader has Arnie with no FH, dont wanna see a crazy match 🙂
        Thanks

  19. pakornk
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Captain Salah or Sterling?

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah for me.

    2. Begbie.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah.

    3. Assisting the assister
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus

  20. Les Bleus
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Would appreciate any thoughts on this FH team please.

    Butland
    Bellerin Klavan Baines
    Salah Sane Sterling Mane Zaha
    Jesus Laca

    3.9 Long Niasse 3.9

    I’m a bit concerned about having just one playing sub but hopefully it should be fine.

    1. magnet
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Get rid of laca

    2. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Pretty template so I think you’re fine.

    3. #Swish41
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yep, very good. I’m similar, but can’t move Aube to Laca!

  21. kysersosa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A)Silva and Mane

    or

    B) KDB and Zaha

    Have salah, Jesus and Sterling also.

    FH team

  22. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Morning all. Anything worth -8 or even -12? Using WC next week. Thanks.

    Fabianski
    Lowton - Tomkins - Robertson
    Silva - Salah- **** - ****
    Auba - Jesus (C)

    1. drughi
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I'm also using my WC next week, I think you should atleast take one more hit to bring in a midfielder

    2. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Robo won't play.

      I'd just roll with this team I think.

  23. Teror
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A. VvD + Tomkins

    B. Klavan + PvA

  24. pjanns
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Who to choose? - Really can't decide.

    A: Aubameyang

    B: Zaha

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  25. Gruu
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Morning all. RMFHT please:

    Butland
    Bellerin, Baines, Moreno
    Salah, KdB, Mane, Sterling, Zaha
    Laca, Jesus

    (3.9, Long, Crouch, 3.9)
    0.2itb

    1. Werkself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      GTG

  26. Dr Kenneth Noisewater
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    G2G for FH?

    Karius
    Coleman - VVD - PVA
    Salah - Özil - Sterling - Silva - Zaha
    Jesus - Lacazette

    Bench = Long + Fodder

    1. Werkself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      GTG

  27. Bubbles1985
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Rate my FH team please!

    Butland (Nordfelt)
    Walker - Coleman - Moreno (Masuaku -Lowton)
    Zaha - Arnie - Salah - Sterling - Shaq
    Jesus(c) - Auba(vc) (Barnes)

    Leaves me with 0.4 itb

    1. JurgenRodgers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Solid..

  28. Burger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Anyibe going wellbeck as a differential?

    1. Werkself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      not nailed enough for me

    2. el polako
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I am.

  29. JurgenRodgers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    -12 Took with an eye on Gw37
    Jesus Sterling Otamendi Zaha on board for the run in..

    Gw36 Tark - Vert

    Gw37 Barnes - Ayew
    TC + Salah + 10 Dgws

  30. Weeb Kakashi
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Pick one

    A Mane Welbeck
    B Ozil Shaqiri

    Have Lacazette

    1. magnet
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A