Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Demel
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    My current team with no transfers...

    Pickford
    Tarkowski - Long - Lowton - Dummett
    Salah - D Silva - Sterling - Kennedy
    Ayew

    Ryan
    Kane
    Lukaku
    Willian
    Alonso

    The transfer Lukaku > Jesus (free) makes most sense to me. Agree?

    1. Totalfootball
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah , go for it

    2. #Swish41
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Triple Burnley defence!

      1. Demel
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I have had it for a while now. Not been too amazing recently but it works overall.

  2. Les Bleus
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Repost. Would appreciate any thoughts on this FH team please.

    Butland
    Bellerin Klavan Baines
    Salah Sane Sterling Mane Zaha
    Jesus Laca

    3.9 Long Niasse 3.9

    I’m a bit concerned about having just one playing sub but hopefully it should be fine.

    1. Takedog1
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      template team. g2g

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers

    2. Demel
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      You should be fine. Can you downgrade Niasse and upgrade your 3.9 to Moreno?

      1. 5678
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Can't have 4 Liverpool.

          1. JustPark
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Dummett/Tomkins/Lejeune would be fine for that purpose.

            1. Les Bleus
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              Cheers

        • Les Bleus
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I’ve got 3 Pool already unfortunately 🙁

      2. magnet
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Get rid of laca

    3. Takedog1
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      On the free hit team. whats better ?

      1) moreno and kdb

      2) milner and sane

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        2

      2. Totalfootball
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        2

      3. Toplad
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        2

      4. Takedog1
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        thanks

    4. #Swish41
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Last FH choice:

      A. Butland
      B. Pickford

      1. Bellerin
      2. Baines
      3. PVA

      Vogue seems A1 but Stoke are crap so not sure why...

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I’d go A1

      2. Totalfootball
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A1

      3. #Swish41
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks both - A1 it is!

      4. Bushman
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A1

    5. Toplad
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Am I G2G? Any feedback appreciated. Thanks!

      Pickford
      PVA, Klavan, Bauer
      Salah(C), Mane, KDB, Sterling, Zaha
      Laca, Jesus(V)
      (Maenpaa, Perez, Tomkins, Long)

      1. Takedog1
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        yes

      2. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Pretty similar to mine. Looks good.

      3. Totalfootball
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yup

        1. Toplad
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Thanks!

    6. DantheManinaPan
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Has anyone got a link to Wenger's comments on starting lineup? The Internet seems to be saturated with news about his retirement and so can't find anything anywhere

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Check the scout tweets

      2. magnet
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        He said players rested against Newcastle will play. Welbeck etc

    7. Dacra
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) Ozil + VVD
      B) Monreal + Mane

    8. Cesc's old mullet
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      What do we make of this tweet by Anfield Express?

      https://twitter.com/anfieldexpress/status/987364885381165056?s=21

      Karius, Gomez, Van Dijk, Klavan, Moreno, Henderson, Milner, Wijnaldum, Salah, Mane, Ings.

      Is this reliable?

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yes, very reliable

        1. Cesc's old mullet
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Good to know.

          Salah (c), Mane and Klavan it is then!

      2. WE GO FOR IT
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Has got it right every time this season.

      3. Cube
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        So Firmino is actually not starting?

        1. Cesc's old mullet
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Looks like it

        2. Gandalf
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Correct

    9. WE GO FOR IT
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Best Arsenal attacker to own?

      A. Lacazette. Get Mane
      B. Ozil. Get Tosun
      C. Both. No Mane

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

      2. Positive vibes
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

      3. Bushman
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Auba!

      4. WE GO FOR IT
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers all! 🙂

    10. #Swish41
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Anyone else on FH finding it hard to move Aube > Laca.

      Just doesn’t make sense that he won’t start (and would go against wenger previous policy), plus he is way better!

      1. Bubbles1985
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I'm sticking with Auba pal

      2. FantasyFootballMad
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I’m sticking with Aubameyang. Even if he doesn’t get full minutes he will probably play some part and he’s surely going to be playing both games in gw37 as they are only a few days before the cup final (optimistic thinking I know) so laca just doesn’t make sense to me

      3. Srv210
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Very confused... switching between the two since yesterday

        1. #Swish41
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          In my mind me too! Think I will stick with Aube

      4. Bushman
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Auba all the way

      5. magnet
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Pick Welbeck as he will start

        1. #Swish41
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          This is even more rogue in my mind! Sticking with Aube I reckon

      6. FootballFanatic365
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        stacked both of them

      7. Black Panther
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I think Lacazette will start upfront with Auba out wide. They could even play Welbeck Laca Ozil front 3 and bench Auba. I don't trust Auba on my FH since Wenger said he doesn't know himself if he'll start.

    11. pakornk
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Hi. Captain Salah or Sterling?

      1. Positive vibes
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Salah

      2. Srv210
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Going sterling...have some catching up to do In ML

    12. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Hi, prefer Mustafi or PVA for this week?
      Cheers 🙂

      1. WE GO FOR IT
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        PvA

      2. Srv210
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Mustafi imo

      3. FantasyFootballMad
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Tough call but PVA attacking threat plus fixtures over next two weeks just takes it for me

    13. Srv210
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Butland
      Baines,Milner,Lowton,lascelles,kiko
      Salah,mane,sterling,sane,Zaha
      Jesus,laca,Perez

      On a FH...is it GTG or some changes ??
      Please suggest...thanks

    14. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Chasing a largeish gap right now. Jesus/KDB captain justified or play it safe with Salah?

      1. Bellybig
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        get the one who will get you most points. I'm leading by a load, but I'm still choosing a city player to capt, because I think it's gonna be a celebration there.

    15. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Which bench is a safer bet better if on a FH?

      A) Perez, Long 3.9 def, 3.9 keeper
      B) Crouch, Long, Tomkins/Lowotn, 3.9 keeper

      Cheers!

      1. Srv210
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

      2. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B should be fine

    16. Bushman
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      FH RMT please:

      Cech
      Walker / Milner / Bellerin
      Salah / Sterling / Arnie / Zaha / Mili
      Jesus / Auba

      Dubravka / Perez / VvD / Long

      I’m aware of the Auba risk but think he’ll start.
      Should I start Perez instead of Arnie / Mili?
      Or upgrade Arnie to Mane?
      Thoughts appreciated.

      1. Teror
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Risky team but non-template, could do well. I don't see why you've got VvD on the bench. Downgrade and reinvest elsewhere.

      2. Bushman
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers. VvD was PVA but I had loads of money left over so I upgraded the bench. I was set on Zaha, Mili & Arnie but now I’m not sure. Probably because it is a bit different / risky

    17. The Chief
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mustafi or Monreal?

      1. Stoic
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Mo

        1. Ibralicious
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Kolasinac might start. Mustafi safer bet

    18. fridge
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Firmino or Lacazette? Slightly worried about game time for both, is either safer?

      1. Srv210
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Firmino rested acc to leaked lineup

    19. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) Sane + PVA
      B) Shaq + Kompany

    20. Stoic
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Zaha or D. Welbz ?

      1. Teror
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Zaha

    21. Teror
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Who likes my team?

      Butland
      VvD - Bellerin - Baines
      Sterling - D.Silva - Mane - Salah - Zaha
      Jesus - Auba

      (Nordfelt - Long - Tomkins - Crouch)

      1. HNI
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Silva is a iffy due to his family issues...Punt of Shaq?
        Rest is brilliant

    22. HNI
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Cant get my head around which of OZIL or MANE to go with.
      WBA have just conceded 1 big chance in last 3 and will be in mood for another upset after defeating Li 3-2 at anfield.
      WHAM have conceded 2 big chances but how will Arsenal play down by emotion and europa match or energized?
      Tempted by Ozil as super differential but dint play last 2 epl matches

      1. JustPark
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Tbh think they'll play energised/motivated for their soon to be gone manager.

      2. Teror
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        almost everyone has gone with Mane. Make of it what you will.

      3. DV8R
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Same dilemma for me.

        I am going for Ozil as a differential though Mane could explode today

      4. Bissisine
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Im in the same position. I want Øzil but think Mane is a better choice. But if you chasing and you chasing 70+ in your mini L so go for Øzil and captain Sterling

    23. si
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Spot the Differential predictions:
      Wellbeck
      Diouf
      Pereyra

      1. JustPark
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Can't decide between Welbeck and Diouf.

      2. Taking the Mkhitaryan
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Crouch not Diouf

      3. Zladan
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Milner.

        Clean Sheet.
        2 assists.
        Takes the penalty when Salah is subbed off.

        1. si
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Forgot he was a defender. Great FH shout. I don’t think the scouts will follow the Anfield express prediction though. Or they would pick Ings.

      4. HNI
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Crouch. The winner hitter

    24. JurgenRodgers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Would love Toby to start today for Spurs..

      £5.8 could be a great option for the run in...

      1. si
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        He won’t.

        1. JurgenRodgers
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Ok Mystic Meg

          1. si
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Unless they revert to 3 at the back.

    25. Mr_Barbs
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Which option for FH team do you prefer?

      A) Baines, Bellerin, Sane
      B) Baines, Walker, Arnautovic
      C) Jagielka, Mustafi, KDB

      Rest of the team:
      Butland
      Xxxx, Klavan, xxxxx
      Xxxx, Sterling, Salah, Mane, Zaha
      Laca, Jesus

      Henessey, Barnes, Tomkins, Long

      1. thekingiii
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I've gone A myself

    26. barcaa7
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mane or Ozil??

      1. Zladan
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I went Mané. Most will.

        Özil is a good premium differential though.

    27. RocketRonnie
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Free hit
      A Kompany Tomkins Ozil
      B Keane pva sane

      Butland
      Kompany Tomkins klavan
      Salah mane sterling zaha Ozil
      Jesus laca

      Bench crouch long fodder fodder

      (Sorry for repost)

    28. Dacra
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) Hennesey + Monreal
      B) PvA + Butland

    29. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Thought on:

      A)Silva and Mane

      or

      B) KDB and Zaha

      Have salah, Jesus and Sterling also.

      FH team

    30. Tomas Brolin ate all Depays
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) Auba
      B) Laca

      I know Wengers comments but can’t believe he doesn’t play Auba when he’s ineligible for Europe...