Metrics
21 April 2018 885 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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With the curtailed Gameweek 35 now underway, our latest examination of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) metrics will focus on the Free Hit versus the no Free Hit scenario among managers currently ranked in the top 10,000.

As anticipated, the vast majority of Free Hits remaining were activated this week, making the overall usage of the chip jump from 67% to 97.9% in the top 10k. This means that this chip is now the closest to being used-up among the current top 10k.

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The only other chip that saw some significant increase in Gameweek 35 was the second Wildcard, which was activated by 4.78% of managers in the top 10k.

But in today’s analysis, we will concentrate purely on the Free Hit scenario.

With one-third of active managers playing that chip prior to the deadline, this group will doubtless appreciate a view of how they fare compared with their peers.

Similarly, the remaining managers without the chip active can also get a view of how their squads measure up.

As we revealed earlier in the week, the non-Free Hit managers had an average of 7.4 players with a Gameweek 35 fixture before the deadline.

But analysis of the latest data reveals that, as expected, these managers used their free transfers and spent points on further trades to reinforce their squads.

This group in the top 10k took an average of -3.63 points in deductions, which is the biggest “hits” figure I’ve recorded this season.

It meant that the non-Free Hit managers in the top 10k were able to field an average of 9.93 players for Gameweek 35, as detailed below.

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Around 61.5% of them could even field a squad of 10 players or more, which might suffice in keeping pace with Free Hit managers.

However, not surprisingly, the squads with the Free Hit in play avoided all points deductions and averaged 14.7 players active for Gameweek 35.

Now let’s look closer and assess the most popular selections in both the Free Hit and non-Free Hit squads.

Below is a squad made up of the most owned players selected by Free Hit managers in the top 10k.

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Meanwhile, the squad for non-Free Hit managers looks somewhat different:

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We see Mohamed Salah (99.06%) is the dominant figure in Free Hit ranks, along with Gabriel Jesus (98.09%) and Raheem Sterling (94.18%).

Indeed, Salah has a similarly high ownership (92.36%) in non-Free Hit teams.

However, with a blank in Gameweek 34, many non-Free Hit managers were forced to spend points to acquire Jesus and Sterling.

As a result, they are found in just 49.08% and 58.2% of squads respectively.

Their output tomorrow against Swansea City already looks to be crucial in the shake-up among the top 10k managers.

There are other disparities that create a cast of players key to the success of the Free Hit.

Players like Leighton Baines, Hector Bellerin, Kevin De Bruyne and Alexandre Lacazette are far from common factors in non-Free Hit squads.

To examine this further, here is a table of the most owned players in Free Hit teams versus their ownership in the non-Free Hit squads among the top 10k.

PlayerFree Hit Ownershipnon Free Hit OwnershipTotal Top 10k Ownership
Mohamed Salah99.06%92.36%94.43%
Gabriel Jesus98.09%49.08%64.23%
Raheem Sterling94.18%58.20%69.32%
Wilfried Zaha82.24%17.53%37.53%
Kevin Long68.78%15.92%32.26%
Alexandre Lacazette63.93%2.11%21.22%
Leighton Baines62.31%3.20%21.47%
Sadio Mané59.75%9.13%24.78%
Jack Butland43.09%1.11%14.09%
Héctor Bellerín33.19%2.84%12.22%
Virgil van Dijk31.87%14.68%19.99%
Kevin De Bruyne30.54%7.61%14.70%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang28.63%51.47%44.41%
Jordan Pickford27.79%6.67%13.20%
Ayoze Pérez24.17%8.39%13.27%
Leroy Sané23.71%16.01%18.39%
Shkodran Mustafi22.29%17.56%19.02%
Xherdan Shaqiri22.00%12.61%15.51%
Luka Milivojevic21.51%41.66%35.43%
James Tomkins19.93%7.63%11.43%
Ragnar Klavan19.61%0.94%6.71%
Matthew Lowton17.63%26.78%23.95%
Wayne Hennessey17.63%12.78%14.28%
Mesut Özil17.18%1.65%6.45%
James Milner16.98%0.23%5.41%
Patrick van Aanholt16.37%2.04%6.47%
Nacho Monreal16.05%9.16%11.29%
Roberto Firmino16.05%43.19%34.80%
Nicolás Otamendi14.36%36.56%29.70%
Marko Arnautovic13.46%15.73%15.03%
Peter Crouch13.33%0.83%4.69%
Nick Pope13.07%24.24%20.79%
Cenk Tosun12.62%4.24%6.83%
Ashley Barnes12.26%22.81%19.55%
David Silva9.90%14.99%13.42%

 

The table highlights that the majority of the selected players in the Free Hit squads show low ownership in non-Free Hit line-ups.

Already today, many non-Free Hit managers will have been hugely relieved at Wilfried Zaha’s blank at Watford given the big disparity in ownership. Some 82.4% of the top 10k Free Hit managers fielded the Eagles winger, compared with 17.5% of the rest of the top 10k.

There are, of course, more opportunities to come with tomorrow’s fixtures.

However, there are also some players who could prove key figures for those without the Free Hit active.

Of these, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (51.47% compared to 28.63%), Nicolás Otamendi (36.56% compared to 14.36%) and David Silva (14.99% compared to 9.9%) look poised to make the most impact.

These major differentials will surely decide how Gameweek 35 affects the current top 10k rankings.

It will be fascinating to carry out a post-mortem on the results and compare these to the impact of the Free Hit chip back in Gameweek 31, when we saw the previous set of reduced fixtures.

Finally, I’ll leave you with a look at each of the Premier league sides most represented in both groups of managers.

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As we can see, every Free Hit manager in the top 10k opted for three Manchester City players. Meanwhile, the non-Free Hit manager has an average of 2.1.

It’s a similar story for Liverpool, with an average of 2.8 players in Free Hit active squads, compared with 2.1 in the rest.

While major Liverpool assets blanked today, it’s essentially Man City and Arsenal (2.1 vs 1.0 players) options that seem likely to decide the gap between the Free Hit and the non-Free Hit managers.

885 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Speédy
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Smalling and Jones for England

  2. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Another CS for Smalling & Jones....best Utd CB pairing

    1. Viper
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Is it? Alli goals don't count? 🙂

    2. yakirh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      CS?

      1. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        clean sheet

        1. yakirh
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          2-1 is no CS

  3. Viper
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Seriously though, Kane has been useless. Jesus TC now a real possibility

    1. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Agreed

    2. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Don't mention it here, this place is mostly Kane-biased

    3. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      But he has a knack of getting 'cheap' goals through pens / FKs / being jammy

  4. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Elbows coming on.....good Spurs win

  5. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    That's so Spursy™

  6. Fantastisk
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Spurs are absolute bottle jobs.

  7. Bubz
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Rethinking my Kane(TC) gw 37

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sterling/Jesus

      1. Bubz
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Stop with the mindgames EF

        1. Epic Fail
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          😀 It's not mind games I assure you. Genuinely think a Man City player might be the call to make.

    2. yakirh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Spurs good against lower teams

      Kane TC still looks good

    3. Fred54
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Never wise to go by one game, but Kane and Lukaku were shocking.

      1. Bubz
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Kane's not been great since injury

  8. Arteta
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Another trophyless season for the best Spurs team in history.

    *pretends to be shocked*

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I don't know why it's even an issue. They are just not a great team, never have been.

      It would be a different story if it was the likes of Man Utd not winning trophies. They have been a great team before.

    2. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Funny how the FA Cup becomes a 'good' trophy once a team can't win the PL or CL.

      1. Fresh_From_Desh
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        The problem is the team don't have a plan B

      2. Leaf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        It’s always a good trophy

      3. Rash
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Always been a good trophy. Just not priority.

      4. Somalion
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        You mean once a team can't win the two major titles the next biggest trophy becomes the focus?

        Shocker 😉

    3. Yozzer
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Only trophys that matter are the prem title and champs league

      We are miles away but still further than Arsenal . What does the FA cup mean in all honesty. We not in the early 90s no more. Magic went years ago

  9. Waynoo
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Awful 2nd half from Spurs

  10. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Man Utd vs Chelsea would be a good final.

    Mourinho vs Conte

    'small' man vs 'hair' man

  11. Royal5
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Feckoff Mourinho

  12. Rainer
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Taking part that counts, Spurs...

  13. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Jesus gets a bit of form and it’s TC all the way....

  14. LǝgleSs e|even
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Glory Glory Man United!

  15. Fred54
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    8th consecutive SF defeat in the FA Cup for Spurs.

    Eight!

  16. Somalion
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Think Matic needs a few weeks off. Was shattered from 30 minutes in.

    1. Fred54
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A lot of players were huffing and puffing after making runs. Cramp ahoy as well.

      1. Somalion
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Matic in particular has been on the decline since November, I reckon Herrera's addition is helping take some of the work off him but really thought he could've been targeted by Spurs today. Looked shattered and that's after a rest.

  17. Norman Conquest
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Ole ole Ander Herrera
    Ole ole ole Ola
    Drinks Estrella by the cask
    Not Spanish he is Basque

  18. Mikey44
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Would you take Mane out for:

    A- Eriksen
    B- Son
    C- Alli

    Thanks

    1. Fresh_From_Desh
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Eriksen

    2. yakirh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Eriksen
      Better and nailed

  19. Ginkapo FPL
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Specialists in Semi Final defeat?

  20. Leaf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    They didn’t choke

    They’re just not that good

  21. LǝgleSs e|even
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Might contemplate about forgetting Kane now..

  22. Jigger & Pony
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Finals 😎

  23. F4L
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    now for the main event . Come on Forest!

    1. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      This. Would love for Fulham to get automatically promoted.

  24. Epic Fail
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    That Gary Linekar joke at the end. It's what the magic of the cup is all about.

    1. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Would have caught a few out 😆

      1. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Nearly got me in all fairness. 😀

        1. Rainer
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          One of his best!

    2. Optimus.
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      What he say?

      1. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I can't remember exactly now, but something like

        "That's it for us at the BBC. A win for Man Utd with goals from Sanchez and errrrr Herrera."

  25. stachman
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Ok. Im done with this season. Sanchez and Alli scoring now and not during my free chip gameweek is a bit too much... I feel like whole season my picks are good, but just slightly misses momentum. See you all around in August.

    1. Fantastisk
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      See you next page.

      1. Norman Conquest
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        this

  26. Zilla
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Ole ole ole ole

  27. Rainer
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    OR Updated.

    1. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Still in the Top 10k. Done nothing since GW1. Just want one good GW to cement that Top 10k position.

    2. Fred54
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Scored -1 and only fell 40,000 places. Not bad!

    3. Brosstan
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      0 points and only dropped 7k places

  28. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    If you want a laugh, I highly recommend the Spurs sub-reddit.

  29. Norman Conquest
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    was going to bring in mouth breather for kaku next gw not sure i fancy either to be honest

  30. willl
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    How does this look for WC.

    BB in 37.

    De Gea / Fabianski
    Smalling / Jones / Cedric / Yedlin / Fernandez
    Eriksen / Alli / Sterling / Sane / Kenedy
    Kane / Jesus / Ayew